Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS: To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS: We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

Estimating the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australian states and territories used test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) systems extensively in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. We report on an analysis of Australian case data to estimate the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: Our analysis uses a novel mathematical modelling framework and detailed surveillance data on COVID-19 cases including dates of infection and dates of isolation. First, we directly translate an empirical distribution of times from infection to isolation into reductions in potential for onward transmission during periods of relatively low caseloads (tens to hundreds of reported cases per day). We then apply a simulation approach, validated against case data, to assess the impact of case-initiated contact tracing on transmission during a period of relatively higher caseloads and system stress (up to thousands of cases per day). RESULTS: We estimate that under relatively low caseloads in the state of New South Wales (tens of cases per day), TTIQ contributed to a 54% reduction in transmission. Under higher caseloads in the state of Victoria (hundreds of cases per day), TTIQ contributed to a 42% reduction in transmission. Our results also suggest that case-initiated contact tracing can support timely quarantine in times of system stress (thousands of cases per day). CONCLUSION: Contact tracing systems for COVID-19 in Australia were highly effective and adaptable in supporting the national suppression strategy from 2020-21, prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant in November 2021. TTIQ systems were critical to the maintenance of the strong suppression strategy and were more effective when caseloads were (relatively) low.

Carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales colonisation status does not lead to more frequent admissions: a linked patient study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals in any given region can be considered as part of a network, where facilities are connected to one another - and hospital pathogens potentially spread - through the movement of patients between them. We sought to describe the hospital admission patterns of patients known to be colonised with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE), and compare them with CPE-negative patient cohorts, matched on comorbidity information. METHODS: We performed a linkage study in Victoria, Australia, including datasets with notifiable diseases (CPE notifications) and hospital admissions (admission dates and diagnostic codes) for the period 2011 to 2020. Where the CPE notification date occurred during a hospital admission for the same patient, we identified this as the 'index admission'. We determined the number of distinct health services each patient was admitted to, and time to first admission to a different health service. We compared CPE-positive patients with four cohorts of CPE-negative patients, sampled based on different matching criteria. RESULTS: Of 528 unique patients who had CPE detected during a hospital admission, 222 (42%) were subsequently admitted to a different health service during the study period. Among these patients, CPE diagnosis tended to occur during admission to a metropolitan public hospital (86%, 190/222), whereas there was a greater number of metropolitan private (23%, 52/222) and rural public (18%, 39/222) hospitals for the subsequent admission. Median time to next admission was 4 days (IQR, 0-75 days). Admission patterns for CPE-positive patients was similar to the cohort of CPE-negative patients matched on index admission, time period, and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index. CONCLUSIONS: Movement of CPE-positive patients between health services is not a rare event. While the most common movement is from one public metropolitan health service to another, there is also a trend for movement from metropolitan public hospitals into private and rural hospitals. After accounting for clinical comorbidities, CPE colonisation status does not appear to impact on hospital admission frequency or timing. These findings support the potential utility of a centralised notification and outbreak management system for CPE positive patients.

Opportunities to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia: lessons learned from the COVID-19 response.

Abstract: Disease surveillance data was critical in supporting public health decisions throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. At the same time, the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic revealed many shortcomings of surveillance systems for viral respiratory pathogens. Strengthening of surveillance systems was identified as a priority for the recently established Australian Centre for Disease Control, which represents a critical opportunity to review pre-pandemic and pandemic surveillance practices, and to decide on future priorities, during both pandemic and inter-pandemic periods. On 20 October 2022, we ran a workshop with experts from the academic and government sectors who had contributed to the COVID-19 response in Australia on 'The role of surveillance in epidemic response', at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. Following the workshop, we developed five recommendations to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia, which we present here. Our recommendations are not intended to be exhaustive. We instead chose to focus on data types that are highly valuable yet typically overlooked by surveillance planners. Three of the recommendations focus on data collection activities that support the monitoring and prediction of disease impact and the effectiveness of interventions (what to measure) and two focus on surveillance methods and capabilities (how to measure). Implementation of our recommendations would enable more robust, timely, and impactful epidemic analysis.