Updated external validation of the SORG machine learning algorithms for prediction of ninety-day and one-year mortality after surgery for spinal metastasis.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Surgical decompression and stabilization in the setting of spinal metastasis is performed to relieve pain and preserve functional status. These potential benefits must be weighed against the risks of perioperative morbidity and mortality. Accurate prediction of a patient's postoperative survival is a crucial component of patient counseling. PURPOSE: To externally validate the SORG machine learning algorithms for prediction of 90-day and 1-year mortality after surgery for spinal metastasis. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Retrospective, cohort study PATIENT SAMPLE: Patients 18 years or older at a tertiary care medical center treated surgically for spinal metastasis OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality within 90 days of surgery, mortality within 1 year of surgery METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of 298 adult patients at a tertiary care medical center treated surgically for spinal metastasis between 2004 and 2020. Baseline characteristics of the validation cohort were compared to the derivation cohort for the SORG algorithms. The following metrics were used to assess the performance of the algorithms: discrimination, calibration, overall model performance, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Sixty-one patients died within 90 days of surgery and 133 died within 1 year of surgery. The validation cohort differed significantly from the derivation cohort. The SORG algorithms for 90-day mortality and 1-year mortality performed excellently with respect to discrimination; the algorithm for 1-year mortality was well-calibrated. At both postoperative time points, the SORG algorithms showed greater net benefit than the default strategies of changing management for no patients or for all patients. CONCLUSIONS: With an independent, contemporary, and geographically distinct population, we report successful external validation of SORG algorithms for preoperative risk prediction of 90-day and 1-year mortality after surgery for spinal metastasis. By providing accurate prediction of intermediate and long-term mortality risk, these externally validated algorithms may inform shared decision-making with patients in determining management of spinal metastatic disease.

Brachial plexus injury mimicking a spinal-cord injury.

OBJECTIVE: High-energy impact to the head, neck, and shoulder can result in cervical spine as well as brachial plexus injuries. Because cervical spine injuries are more common, this tends to be the initial focus for management. We present a case in which the initial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was somewhat misleading and a detailed neurological exam lead to the correct diagnosis. CLINICAL PRESENTATION: A 19-year-old man presented to the hospital following a shoulder injury during football practice. The patient immediately complained of significant pain in his neck, shoulder, and right arm and the inability to move his right arm. He was stabilized in the field for a presumed cervical-spine injury and transported to the emergency department. INTERVENTION: Initial radiographic assessment (C-spine CT, right shoulder x-ray) showed no bony abnormality. MRI of the cervical-spine showed T2 signal change and cord swelling thought to be consistent with a cord contusion. With adequate pain control, a detailed neurological examination was possible and was consistent with an upper brachial plexus avulsion injury that was confirmed by CT myelogram. The patient failed to make significant neurological recovery and he underwent spinal accessory nerve grafting to the suprascapular nerve to restore shoulder abduction and external rotation, while the phrenic nerve was grafted to the musculocutaneous nerve to restore elbow flexion. CONCLUSION: Cervical spinal-cord injuries and brachial plexus injuries can occur by the same high energy mechanisms and can occur simultaneously. As in this case, MRI findings can be misleading and a detailed physical examination is the key to diagnosis. However, this can be difficult in polytrauma patients with upper extremity injuries, head injuries or concomitant spinal-cord injury. Finally, prompt diagnosis and early surgical renerveration have been associated with better long-term recovery with certain types of injury.