Pharmacological treatment initiation for type 2 diabetes in Australia: are the guidelines being followed?

AIM: To determine the patterns and predictors of pharmacological treatment initiation for type 2 diabetes and whether treatment initiation is consistent with Australian clinical practice guidelines that recommend metformin monotherapy. METHODS: Individuals aged 40-99 years initiating a non-insulin type 2 diabetes medication between July 2013 and February 2018 were identified from a 10% random national sample of pharmacy dispensing data. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the predictors of initiating sulfonylurea monotherapy, non-guideline monotherapy and combination therapy compared with metformin monotherapy. Predictors included age, sex, initiation year and comorbidities determined using the Rx-Risk comorbidity index. RESULTS: Of the 47 860 initiators, [47% women, mean age 60.7 (sd 12.1) years], 85.8%, 4.6%, 1.9% and 7.7% received metformin monotherapy, sulfonylurea monotherapy, non-guideline monotherapy and combination therapy, respectively. Increasing age was associated with increasing odds of initiating sulfonylurea monotherapy and non-guideline monotherapy. Combination therapy initiation was less likely in women (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.79) and people with more comorbidities (e.g. OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.29-0.44 for seven or more comorbidities vs. no comorbidities) but more likely in congestive heart failure (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.22-1.65), cerebrovascular disease (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.32-1.69) and dyslipidaemia (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.19-1.40). CONCLUSION: Treatment initiation in Australia is largely consistent with clinical practice guidelines, with 86% of individuals initiating metformin monotherapy. Initiation on combination therapy was more common in men and in those with fewer comorbidities.

Cardiovascular disease management in people with diabetes outside North America and Western Europe in 2006 and 2015.

AIM: Optimal treatment of cardiovascular disease is essential to decrease mortality among people with diabetes, but information is limited on how actual treatment relates to guidelines. We analysed changes in therapeutic approaches to anti-hypertensive and lipid-lowering medications in people with Type 2 diabetes from 2006 and 2015. METHODS: Summary data from clinical services in seven countries outside North America and Western Europe were collected for 39 684 people. Each site summarized individual-level data from outpatient medical records for 2006 and 2015. Data included: demographic information, blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol levels and percentage of people taking statins, anti-hypertensive medication (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, calcium channel blockers, angiotensin II receptor blockers, thiazide diuretics) and antiplatelet drugs. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2015, mean cholesterol levels decreased in six of eight sites (range: -0.5 to -0.2), whereas the proportion with BP levels > 140/90 mmHg increased in seven of eight sites. Decreases in cholesterol paralleled increases in statin use (range: 3.1 to 47.0 percentage points). Overall, utilization of anti-hypertensive medication did not change. However, there was an increase in the use of angiotensin II receptor blockers and a decrease in angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. The percentage of individuals receiving calcium channel blockers and aspirin remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that control of cholesterol levels improved and coincided with increased use of statins. The percentage of people with BP > 140/90 mmHg was higher in 2015 than in 2006. Hypertension treatment shifted from using angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors to angiotensin II receptor blockers. Despite the potentially greater tolerability of angiotensin II receptor blockers, there was no associated improvement in BP levels.

Incidence of chronic kidney disease among people with diabetes: a systematic review of observational studies.

AIMS: The aim was to systematically review published articles that reported the incidence of chronic kidney disease among people with diabetes. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed using MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL databases. The titles and abstracts of all publications identified by the search were reviewed and 10 047 studies were retrieved. RESULTS: A total of 71 studies from 30 different countries with sample sizes ranging from 505 to 211 132 met the inclusion criteria. The annual incidence of microalbuminuria and albuminuria ranged from 1.3% to 3.8% for Type 1 diabetes. For Type 2 diabetes and studies combining both diabetes types, the range was from 3.8% to 12.7%, with four of six studies reporting annual rates between 7.4% and 8.6%. In studies reporting the incidence of eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 using the Modification of Diet on Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, apart from one study which reported an annual incidence of 8.9%, the annual incidence ranged from 1.9% to 4.3%. The annual incidence of end-stage renal disease ranged from 0.04% to 1.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The annual incidence of microalbuminuria and albuminuria is ~ 2-3% in Type 1 diabetes, and ~ 8% in Type 2 diabetes or mixed diabetes type. The incidence of developing eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 is ~ 2-4% per year. Despite the wide variation in methods and study design, within a particular category of kidney disease, there was only modest variation in incidence rates. These findings may be useful in clinical settings to help understand the risk of developing kidney disease among those with diabetes.

Trends in diabetes and obesity in Samoa over 35 years, 1978-2013.

AIMS: Population surveys of Type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity conducted in Samoa over three decades have used varying methodologies and definitions. This study standardizes measures, and trends of Type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity for 1978-2013 are projected to 2020 for adults aged 25-64 years. METHODS: Unit records from eight surveys (n = 12 516) were adjusted to the previous census for Division of residence, sex and age to improve national representativeness. Type 2 diabetes mellitus is defined as a fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l and/or on medication. Obesity is defined as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 . Random effects meta-regression was employed to assess time trends following logit transformation. Poisson regression from strata was used to assess the effects of mean BMI changes on Type 2 diabetes mellitus period trends. RESULTS: Over 1978-2013, Type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 1.2% to 19.6% in men (2.3% per 5 years), and from 2.2% to 19.5% in women (2.2% per 5 years). Obesity prevalence increased from 27.7% to 53.1% in men (3.6% per 5 years) and from 44.4% to 76.7% (4.5% per 5 years) in women. Type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity prevalences increased in all age groups. From period trends, Type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence in 2020 is projected to be 26% in men and women. Projected obesity prevalence is projected to be 59% in men and 81% in women. Type 2 diabetes mellitus period trends attributable to BMI increase are estimated as 31% (men) and 16% (women), after adjusting for age. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to produce trends of Type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity in Samoa based on standardized data from population surveys. Type 2 diabetes mellitus is equally prevalent in both sexes, and obesity is widespread. Type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence in Samoa is likely to continue to increase in the near future.

Meeting American Diabetes Association diabetes management targets: trends in Mauritius.

AIMS: To examine the proportion of people with diabetes in the multi-ethnic country of Mauritius meeting American Diabetes Association targets in 2009 and 2015. METHODS: Data from independent population-based samples of 858 and 656 adults with diagnosed diabetes in 2009 and 2015, respectively, were analysed with regard to recommended American Diabetes Association targets for HbA1c , blood pressure and LDL cholesterol. RESULTS: In 2015 compared with 2009, the proportion of people achieving American Diabetes Association targets for glycaemic control in Mauritius was higher in women (P≤0.01) and in those with only a primary education level (P=0.07), but not in men or people with a higher level of education. Achievement of blood pressure <140/90 mmHg was higher in 2015 compared with 2009 (60% vs 42%) in people of South Asian ethnicity (P<0.001), but not in those of African ethnicity (P=0.16). The percentages of people with LDL cholesterol <2.59 mmol/l were 42.1% and 50.4%, in 2009 and 2015, respectively (P=0.27). Better control of HbA1c and blood pressure was observed in groups in which that control was poorest in 2009. The use of glucose-, blood pressure- and LDL cholesterol-lowering medication was higher in 2015 than in 2009. CONCLUSIONS: In certain subgroups, namely women, those with poorer education and those of South Asian ethnicity, whose target achievement was the poorest in 2009, control of glycaemia and blood pressure was better in 2015 as compared with 2009. While these findings are encouraging, further work is required to improve outcomes.

Trends in body mass index according to educational attainment for urban Australian adults between 1980 and 2007.

BACKGROUND: We have previously demonstrated that between the years 1980 and 2000, the mean body mass index (BMI) of the urban Australian population increased, with greater increases observed with increasing BMI. The current study aimed to quantify trends over time in BMI according to level of education between 1980 and 2007. METHODS: We compared data from the 1980, 1983 and 1989 National Heart Foundation Risk Factor Prevalence Studies, 1995 National Nutrition Survey, 2000 Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study and the 2007 National Health Survey. For survey comparability, analyses were restricted to urban Australian residents aged 25-64 years. BMI was calculated from measured height and weight. The education variable was dichotomised at completion of secondary school. Four age-standardised BMI indicators were compared over time by sex and education: mean BMI, mean BMI of the top 5% of the BMI distribution, prevalence of obesity (BMI⩾30 kg m(-)(2)), prevalence of class II(+) obesity (BMI⩾35 kg m(-)(2)). RESULTS: Between 1980 and 2007, the mean BMI among men increased by 2.5 and 1.7 kg m(-)(2) for those with low and high education levels, respectively, corresponding to increases in obesity prevalence of 20 (from 12-32%) and 11 (10-21%) %-points. Among women, mean BMI increased by 2.9 and 2.4 kg m(-)(2) for those with low and high education levels, respectively, corresponding to increases in obesity prevalence of 16 (12-28%) and 12 (7-19%) %-points. The prevalence of class II(+) obesity among men increased by 9 (1-10%) and 4 (1-5%) %-points for those with low and high education levels, and among women increased by 8 (4-12%) and 4 (2-6%) %-points. Absolute and relative differences between education groups generally increased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Educational differences in BMI have persisted among urban Australian adults since 1980 without improvement. Obesity prevention policies will need to be effective in those with greatest socio-economic disadvantage if we are to equitably and effectively address the population burden of obesity and its corollaries.

Association between serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and the risk of hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: result from a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: There is ongoing debate regarding the optimal serum concentrations of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D for musculoskeletal health, including osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of this prospective cohort study was to determine whether serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations were associated with the risk of hip arthroplasty for OA. DESIGN: This study examined 9135 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study who had serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D measured in 1999-2000 and were aged ≥40 years at the commencement of arthroplasty data collection. The incidence of hip arthroplasty for OA during 2002-2011 was determined by linking cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Over an average 9.1 (standard deviation (SD) 2.7) years of follow-up, 201 hip arthroplasties for OA were identified (males n = 90; females n = 111). In males, a one-standard-deviation increase in 25-hydroxy-vitamin D was associated with a 25% increased incidence (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.02-1.56), with a dose response relationship evident by quartiles of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentration (P for trend 0.04). These results were independent of age, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, smoking status, physical activity, season of blood collection, latitude, hypertension and diabetes, area level disadvantage or after excluding those with extreme low 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations. No significant association was observed in women (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.87, 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations were associated with an increased risk of hip arthroplasty for OA in males, while no significant association was observed in females. The mechanism for the association warrants further investigation.

Retinal arteriolar narrowing and incidence of knee replacement for osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The role of the microcirculation in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis (OA) remains unclear. This prospective cohort study examined the association between retinal vascular calibre and incidence of knee replacement for OA. DESIGN: 1838 participants of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study had retinal vascular calibre measured using a nonmydriatic digital fundus camera in 1999-2000 and were aged ≥ 40 years at joint replacement data collection commencement. The incidence of knee replacement for OA during 2002-2011 was determined by linking cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR). RESULTS: 77 participants underwent knee replacement for OA. They had narrower retinal arteriolar calibre compared with those without knee replacement (166.1 ± 24.8 µm vs 174.3 ± 24.5 µm, P = 0.004). For every one standard deviation reduction in retinal arteriolar calibre, the incidence of knee replacement increased by 25% (HR 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.56). Participants in the narrower two-thirds of arteriolar calibre had twice the risk of knee replacement compared with those in the widest one-third (HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.07-3.74, P = 0.03) after adjustment for sex, body mass index (BMI), physical activity and HbA1c. There was no association for retinal venular calibre. CONCLUSIONS: Retinal arteriolar narrowing is associated with increased risk of knee replacement for OA suggesting that further work is warranted to determine the role of the microcirculation in the pathogenesis of knee OA.

High consumption of pulses is associated with lower risk of abnormal glucose metabolism in women in Mauritius.

AIMS: To investigate if consumption of pulses was associated with a reduced risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism, increases in body weight and increases in waist circumference in a multi-ethnic cohort in Mauritius. METHODS: Population-based surveys were performed in Mauritius in 1992 and in 1998. Pulse consumption was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire in 1992 and outcomes were measured in 1998. At both time points, anthropometry was undertaken and an oral glucose tolerance test was performed. RESULTS: Mauritian women with the highest consumption of pulses (highest tertile) had a reduced risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism [odds ratio 0.52; 95% CI 0.27, 0.99) compared with those with the lowest consumption, and also after multivariable adjustments. In women, a high consumption of pulses was associated with a smaller increase in BMI. CONCLUSIONS: High consumption of pulses was associated with a reduced risk of abnormal glucose metabolism and a smaller increase in BMI in Mauritian women. Promotion of pulse consumption could be an important dietary intervention for the prevention of Type 2 diabetes and obesity in Mauritius and should be examined in other populations and in clinical trials.

The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

PURPOSE: Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. METHODS: Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. RESULTS: Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

Higher heart rate increases risk of diabetes among men: The Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study.

AIMS: A very limited number of prospective studies have reported conflicting data on the relation between heart rate and diabetes risk. Our aim therefore was to determine in a large, national, population-based cohort if heart rate predicts the development of diabetes. METHODS: The Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle study followed up 6537 people over 5 years. Baseline measurements included questionnaires, anthropometrics and blood and urine collection. Heart rate was recorded in beats per min (Dinamap). An oral glucose tolerance test was performed at baseline and follow-up, and diabetes was defined using World Health Organization criteria. RESULTS: A total of 5817 participants were eligible for analysis, 221 of whom developed diabetes. Compared with participants with a heart rate < 60 b min(-1), those with a heart rate ≥ 80 b min(-1) were more likely to develop diabetes (odds ratio 1.89, 95% CI 1.07-3.35) over 5 years, independent of traditional risk factors. This relationship was highly significant, particularly in non-obese men (odds ratio 5.61, 95% CI 1.75-17.98), but not in their obese counterparts or in women. CONCLUSIONS: Resting heart rate is associated with an increased risk of diabetes over a 5-year period, particularly among non-obese men. This suggests that sympathetic overactivity may be a contributing factor to the development of diabetes, and that resting heart rate may be useful in predicting risk of Type 2 diabetes in non-obese men.

Prevalence of diabetic retinopathy in Type 2 diabetes in developing and developed countries.

BACKGROUND: As the global prevalence of diabetes increases, so will the numbers of people with diabetic retinopathy. Our review aimed to provide a comprehensive picture of available studies of diabetic retinopathy and how prevalence varies around the developed and developing world. METHODS: A detailed literature search using PubMed was undertaken. The following search term was used: 'diabetic retinopathy AND prevalence'. The titles and abstracts of all publications identified by the search were reviewed and 492 studies were retrieved. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. RESULTS: A total of 72 articles from 33 countries were included. There were only 26 population-based studies using fundus photography (12 in developing countries), of which only 16 (eight in developing countries) were published since 2000. Prevalence estimates varied from as low as 10% to as high as 61% in persons with known diabetes and from 1.5 to 31% in newly diagnosed diabetes. Across all the studies, the median (interquartile range) prevalence of any diabetic retinopathy in known diabetes was 27.9% (22-37%) and 10.5% (6-16%) in newly diagnosed diabetes. Prevalence of diabetic retinopathy was higher in developing countries. CONCLUSION: Significant gaps exist in that reliable population-based data from developing nations and indigenous populations in particular are lacking. Major differences in study characteristics and methodologies make comparisons very difficult. More research is required and study methodologies must be better standardized. This will provide important information for prevention and treatment strategies.

A bi-directional relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life: evidence from the longitudinal AusDiab study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prospective relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life, including a novel assessment of the impact of health-related quality of life on weight gain. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal, national, population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, with surveys conducted in 1999/2000 and 2004/2005. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5985 men and women aged ≥ 25 years at study entry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): At both time points, height, weight and waist circumference were measured and self-report data on health-related quality of life from the SF-36 questionnaire were obtained. Cross-sectional and bi-directional, prospective associations between obesity categories and health-related quality of life were assessed. RESULTS: Higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline was associated with deterioration in health-related quality of life over 5 years for seven of the eight health-related quality of life domains in women (all P ≤ 0.01, with the exception of mental health, P>0.05), and six out of eight in men (all P<0.05, with the exception of role-emotional, P=0.055, and mental health, P>0.05). Each of the quality-of-life domains related to mental health as well as the mental component summary were inversely associated with BMI change (all P<0.0001 for women and P ≤ 0.01 for men), with the exception of vitality, which was significant in women only (P=0.008). For the physical domains, change in BMI was inversely associated with baseline general health in women only (P=0.023). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity was associated with a deterioration in health-related quality of life (including both physical and mental health domains) in this cohort of Australian adults followed over 5 years. Health-related quality of life was also a predictor of weight gain over 5 years, indicating a bi-directional association between obesity and health-related quality of life. The identification of those with poor health-related quality of life may be important in assessing the risk of future weight gain, and a focus on health-related quality of life may be beneficial in weight management strategies.

Adverse associations of increases in television viewing time with 5-year changes in glucose homoeostasis markers: the AusDiab study.

BACKGROUND: Television viewing time is associated cross-sectionally with abnormal glucose tolerance and diabetes risk; however, the impact of changes in television viewing time on glycaemic measures is less understood. We examined relationships of 5-year change in television viewing time with 5-year change in glucose homeostasis markers. METHODS: Participants in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study with data available at the 1999-2000 baseline and the 2004-2005 follow-up were included (4870; 45% men). Television viewing time (h/week) was assessed by questionnaire. Fasting plasma glucose, serum insulin and 2-h plasma glucose were obtained from an oral glucose tolerance test. Beta-cell function and insulin resistance were ascertained using the homeostasis model assessment 2-calculator. Associations of change in television viewing time with changes in glucose homeostasis markers were examined using linear regression models [ß-coefficients (95% CI)]. Adjustments included baseline measures of age, television viewing time and glycaemic marker, and baseline and 5-year change in diet quality, energy intake, physical activity and waist circumference. RESULTS: For every 5-h per week increase in television viewing time from baseline to 5-year follow-up, changes in glucose homeostasis markers were observed: among women there was a significant increase in fasting plasma glucose [0.01 (0.00-0.02) mmol/l] insulin resistance [0.03 (0.01-0.05)] and insulin secretion [1.07 (0.02-2.12) %]; insulin levels increased [men: 1.20 (0.30-2.09); women: 1.06 (0.32-1.80) pmol/l]; in men, 2-h plasma glucose levels increased [0.06 (0.01-0.1) mmol/l]. CONCLUSION: Five-year increases in television viewing time were associated adversely with changes in glucose homeostasis markers. These findings add to earlier cross-sectional evidence that television viewing time can be associated with biomarkers of diabetes risk.

Television viewing time and mortality: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).

BACKGROUND: Television viewing time, the predominant leisure-time sedentary behavior, is associated with biomarkers of cardiometabolic risk, but its relationship with mortality has not been studied. We examined the associations of prolonged television viewing time with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and non-CVD/noncancer mortality in Australian adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Television viewing time in relation to subsequent all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality (median follow-up, 6.6 years) was examined among 8800 adults > or =25 years of age in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). During 58 087 person-years of follow-up, there were 284 deaths (87 CVD deaths, 125 cancer deaths). After adjustment for age, sex, waist circumference, and exercise, the hazard ratios for each 1-hour increment in television viewing time per day were 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.20) for all-cause mortality, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.35) for CVD mortality, and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.23) for cancer mortality. Compared with a television viewing time of <2 h/d, the fully adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.13 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.36) for > or =2 to <4 h/d and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.04 to 2.05) for > or =4 h/d. For CVD mortality, corresponding hazard ratios were 1.19 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.99) and 1.80 (95% CI, 1.00 to 3.25). The associations with both cancer mortality and non-CVD/noncancer mortality were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Television viewing time was associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. In addition to the promotion of exercise, chronic disease prevention strategies could focus on reducing sitting time, particularly prolonged television viewing.

Maximizing efficiency and cost-effectiveness of Type 2 diabetes screening: the AusDiab study.

AIMS: To evaluate how to most efficiently screen populations to detect people at high risk of incident Type 2 diabetes and those with prevalent, but undiagnosed, Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data from 5814 adults in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study were used to examine four different types of screening strategies. The strategies incorporated various combinations of cut-points of fasting plasma glucose, the non-invasive Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool (AUSDRISK1) and a modified version of the tool incorporating fasting plasma glucose (AUSDRISK2). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, screening costs per case of incident or prevalent undiagnosed diabetes identified and intervention costs per case of diabetes prevented or reverted were compared. RESULTS: Of the four strategies that maximized sensitivity and specificity, use of the non-invasive AUSDRISK1, followed by AUSDRISK2 in those found to be at increased risk on AUSDRISK1, had the highest sensitivity (80.3%; 95% confidence interval 76.6-84.1%), specificity (78.1%; 95% confidence interval 76.9-79.2%) and positive predictive value (22.3%; 95% confidence interval 20.2-24.4%) for identifying people with either prevalent undiagnosed diabetes or future incident diabetes. It required the fewest people (24.1%; 95% confidence interval 23.0-25.2%) to enter lifestyle modification programmes, and also had the lowest intervention costs and combined costs of running screening and intervention programmes per case of diabetes prevented or reverted. CONCLUSIONS: Using a self-assessed diabetes risk score as an initial screening step, followed by a second risk score incorporating fasting plasma glucose, would maximize efficiency of identifying people with undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and those at high risk of future diabetes.

Comparing incident diabetes as defined by fasting plasma glucose or by HbA(1c). The AusDiab, Inter99 and DESIR studies.

AIM: We examined the ability of fasting plasma glucose and HbA(1c) to predict 5-year incident diabetes for an Australian cohort and a Danish cohort and 6-year incident diabetes for a French cohort, as defined by the corresponding criteria. METHODS: We studied 6025 men and women from AusDiab (Australian), 4703 from Inter99 (Danish) and 3784 from DESIR (French), not treated for diabetes and with fasting plasma glucose < 7.0 mmol/l and HbA(1c) < 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) at inclusion. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l and/or treatment for diabetes or as HbA(1c) ≥ 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) and/or treatment for diabetes. RESULTS: For AusDiab, incident fasting plasma glucose-defined diabetes was more frequent than HbA(1c) -defined diabetes (P(McNemar)<0.0001), the reverse applied to Inter99 (P(McNemar) < 0.007) and for DESIR there was no difference (P(McNema)=0.17). Less than one third of the incident cases were detected by both criteria. Logistic regression models showed that baseline fasting plasma glucose and baseline HbA(1c) predicted incident diabetes defined by the corresponding criteria. The standardized odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for HbA(1c) were a little higher than for fasting plasma glucose, but not significantly so. They were respectively, 5.0 (4.1-6.1) and 4.1 (3.5-4.9) for AusDiab, 5.0 (3.6-6.8) and 4.8 (3.6-6.3) for Inter99, 4.8 (3.6-6.5) and 4.6 (3.6-5.9) for DESIR. CONCLUSIONS: Fasting plasma glucose and HbA(1c) are good predictors of incident diabetes defined by the corresponding criteria. Despite Diabetes Control and Complications Trial-alignment of the three HbA(1c) assays, there was a large difference in the HbA(1c) distributions between these studies, conducted some 10 years ago. Thus, it is difficult to compare absolute values of diabetes prevalence and incidence based on HbA(1c) measurements from that time.

Impact of Age, Frailty, and Dementia on Prescribing for Type 2 Diabetes at Hospital Discharge 2012-2016.

BACKGROUND: The risks of intensive blood glucose lowering may outweigh the benefits in vulnerable older people. OBJECTIVES: Our primary aim was to determine whether age, frailty, or dementia predict discharge treatment types for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and related complications. Secondly, we aimed to determine the association between prior hypoglycemia and discharge treatment types. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a cohort study involving 3,067 patients aged 65-99 years with T2D and related complications, discharged from Melbourne's Eastern Health Hospital Network between 2012 and 2016. MEASUREMENTS: Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between age, frailty, dementia and hypoglycemia, and being prescribed insulin-only, non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) or combined insulin and non-insulin GLDs compared to no GLD. International Classification of Diseases-10 codes were used to identify dementia status and prior hypoglycemia; frailty was quantified using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score. RESULTS: Insulin-only, non-insulin GLDs, combined insulin and non-insulin GLDs, and no GLDs were prescribed to 19%, 39%, 20%, and 23% of patients, respectively. Patients >80 years were less likely than patients aged 65-80 to be prescribed any of the GLD therapies, (eg. non-insulin GLDs [OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.55-0.82]), compared to no GLD. Similarly, high vs. low frailty scores were associated with not being prescribed any of the three GLD therapies, (eg. non-insulin GLDs [OR 0.63; 95%CI 0.45-0.87]). However, dementia was not associated with discharge prescribing of GLD therapies. Patients with a hypoglycemia-related admission were more likely than those not hospitalized with hypoglycemia to receive insulin-only (OR 4.28; 95%CI 2.89-6.31). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians consider age and frailty when tailoring diabetes treatment regimens for patients discharged from hospital with T2D and related complications. There is scope to optimize prescribing for patients with dementia and for those admitted with hypoglycemia.

Health behaviours, socioeconomic status and diabetes incidence: the Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To identify the impact of socioeconomic status on incident impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes and to investigate the mediating role of health behaviours on this relationship using national, population-based data. METHODS: The Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study is a national, population-based, longitudinal study of adults aged 25 years and above. A total sample of 4,405 people provided complete baseline (1999-2000) and 5 year follow-up (2004-2005) data relevant for these analyses. Fasting plasma glucose and 2 h plasma glucose were obtained from an OGTT, and demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural data were collected by interview and questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regression examined the role of socioeconomic position in the development of diabetes and mediation analyses tested the contribution of health behaviours in this relationship. RESULTS: Highest level of education was a stronger predictor of incident impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes (p = 0.002), compared with household income (p = 0.103), and occupational grade (p = 0.202). Education remained a significant independent predictor of diabetes in fully adjusted models. However, the relationship was attenuated by the health behaviours (smoking and physical activity). Mediation analyses indicated that these behaviours were partial mediators (explaining 27%) of the socioeconomic status-diabetes relationship. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: Smoking and physical activity partly mediate the relationship between low education and type 2 diabetes. Identification of these modifiable behavioural mediators should facilitate the development of effective health promotion campaigns to target those at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Association between hyperglycaemia and fracture risk in non-diabetic middle-aged and older Australians: a national, population-based prospective study (AusDiab).

SUMMARY: The association between pre-diabetes and fracture risk remains unclear. In this large cohort of middle-aged and older Australian men and women without diabetes, elevated 2-h plasma glucose and pre-diabetes were associated with a reduced 5-year risk of low trauma and all fractures in women, independently of BMI, fasting insulin and other lifestyle factors. INTRODUCTION: We aimed to (1) examine associations between fasting and 2-h plasma glucose (FPG and 2-h PG), fasting insulin and risk of low trauma and all fractures in non-diabetic adults and (2) compare fracture risk between adults with pre-diabetes (impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose) and those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT). METHODS: Six thousand two hundred fifty-five non-diabetic men and women aged ≥40 years with NGT (n = 4,855) and pre-diabetes (n = 1,400) were followed for 5 years in the AusDiab Study. Fractures were self-reported. RESULTS: Five hundred thirty-nine participants suffered at least one fracture (368 women, 171 men), of which the majority (318) occurred after a low-energy trauma (258 women, 60 men). In women, a 2-h PG ≥ 7.2 mmol/L (highest quartile) was associated with a decreased risk of low trauma and all fractures independent of age and BMI [OR (95% CI) for low trauma fractures, 0.59 (0.40-0.88)], but also fasting insulin, smoking, physical activity, history of fracture, dietary calcium and alcohol intake or menopausal status. There was no effect of 2-h PG on fracture risk in men [OR (95% CI), 1.39 (0.60-3.26)] or any relationship between fracture risk and quartiles of FPG or insulin in either sex. Compared to women with NGT, those with pre-diabetes had a reduced risk of fracture [OR (95% CI) for all fractures, 0.70 (0.52-0.95); for low trauma fractures, 0.75 (0.53-1.05)]. CONCLUSION: Elevated 2-h PG levels and pre-diabetes were inversely associated with low trauma and/or all fractures in non-diabetic women, independent of BMI and fasting insulin levels.