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Melatonin (MLT), a main product of pineal gland, recently has attracted the attention of scientists due to its benefits in various diseases and also regulation of cellular homeostasis. Its receptor scares widely distributed indicating that it influences numerous organs. Programmed cell death (PCD), of which there several types, is a regulated by highly conserved mechanisms and important for development and function of different organs. Enhancement or inhibition of PCDs could be a useful technique for treatment of different diseases and MLT, due to its direct effects on these pathways, is a good candidate for this strategy. Many studies investigated the role of MLT on PCDs in different diseases and in this review, we summarized some of the most significant studies in this field to provide a better insight into the mechanisms of modulation of PCD by MLT modulation.
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Apoptose , Melatonina , Melatonina/metabolismo , Melatonina/farmacologia , Humanos , Apoptose/efeitos dos fármacos , AnimaisRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Healthcare providers (HCPs) practice and correct management of suspected malaria (CMSM) are central components of malaria elimination and prevention of re-establishment (POR) in countries in the elimination phase. However, knowledge of malaria surveillance systems and HCPs practices often wanes in countries aiming to eliminate malaria due to the low numbers of cases. The study aimed to implement a valid Simulated Malaria Online Tool (SMOT) for assessment HCP performance in CMSM and POR in a malaria-free area. METHODS: HCPs were evaluated using SMOT tool based on four criteria including presenting a suspected malaria case for detection of HCPs' failures in recognition (a), diagnosis (b), appropriate treatment (c), and urgent reporting (d); and compared with simulated patients (SP). Multiple logistic regression analysis was carried out to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of HCPs failures. RESULTS: The overall failure proportion was 237 (83%), and the majority of failures were in recognition (a). There was no significant difference between the SMOT and SP based on all failure criteria (P > 0.05). The private clinic (93%) and the public specialized clinic (70%) had the highest and lowest failure proportions. After passing the recognition stage (a), the overall failure proportions decreased to 47.8% and 25.0% for total HCPs and infectious disease specialists, respectively. In the final analysis, private sector (AOR = 4.36: 1.25-15.2), not-specialist providers (AOR = 2.84: 1.29-6.25) and HCPs with ≥ 5 years' experience (AOR = 2.03: 1.01-6.25) increased the risk of failure. CONCLUSION: Findings confirmed the implementation of SMOT tool in settings where malaria transmission is low or interrupted. The tool is able to identify sub-groups of providers needing strengthening, and contributes to the prevention of malaria re-establishment.
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Pessoal de Saúde , Malária , Malária/prevenção & controle , Pessoal de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Erradicação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Feminino , MasculinoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Rhinoplasty is among the top five most popular cosmetic surgical procedures worldwide. Among rhinoplasty candidates, the most common mental health disorder is body dysmorphic disorder. (BDD). The present study aimed to assess the prevalence of BDD among rhinoplasty candidates, its association with the patient's self-assessment of aesthetic outcome and nasal functional, post-rhinoplasty compared to applicants with negative screening for BDD. METHODS: The following study is a cross-sectional, comparative study. Out of the 209 rhinoplasty candidates screened by the BDDQ questionnaire, 39 were positive for BDD. From the remaining 170 patients who screened negative for BDD, 39 participants were randomly selected as the control group for the comparative analysis. Rhinoplasty outcome evaluation (ROE) and standardized cosmesis and health nasal outcomes survey-cosmetic (SCHNOS-C) questionnaires were used for assessment of patient satisfaction with the cosmetic outcome of rhinoplasty. Nasal obstruction symptom evaluation (NOSE) and standardized cosmesis and health nasal outcomes survey-obstruction (SCHNOS-O) were used for the assessment of satisfaction with functional outcomes between groups of patients screened positive and negative for BDD. RESULTS: The prevalence of BDD was 18.66% among rhinoplasty candidates. The average age of patients screened positive for BDD was 31.41. The mean ROE score was significantly lower (i.e. lower satisfaction) in patients screened positive for BDD (15.69 versus 19.08, P = 0.001), regardless of confounding variables, such as age, sex, and marital status. SCHNOS-C score was higher (i.e. less satisfaction) among patients with BDD (47.01 versus 34.96, P = 0.021) and was significantly associated with higher odds of severe aesthetic concern post-rhinoplasty (OR (95%CI) = 5.000 (1.135-22.022), P = 0.033). Patients screened positive for BDD had significantly higher NOSE scores (i.e. less satisfaction with functional outcome) compared to participants negative for BDD (49.74 versus 37.82, P = 0.012). SCHNOS-O score had no significant association with BDD (P = 0.053). Furthermore, there was no significant association between BDD and NOSE or SCHNOS-O score after adjustment for the confounders. CONCLUSION: Patients screened positive for BDD were significantly less satisfied with the cosmetic outcome of the rhinoplasty compared to those screened negative for BDD. Assessment of BDD among rhinoplasty candidates before surgery, could potentially be beneficial for both patients and surgeons. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .
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PURPOSE: This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of alcohol consumption on breast cancer, adjusting for alcohol consumption misclassification bias and confounders. METHODS: This was a case-control study of 932 women with breast cancer and 1000 healthy control. Using probabilistic bias analysis method, the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was adjusted for the misclassification bias of alcohol consumption as well as a minimally sufficient set of adjustment of confounders derived from a causal directed acyclic graph. Population attributable fraction was estimated using the Miettinen's Formula. RESULTS: Based on the conventional logistic regression model, the odds ratio estimate between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.91). However, the adjusted estimates of odds ratio based on the probabilistic bias analysis ranged from 1.82 to 2.29 for non-differential and from 1.93 to 5.67 for differential misclassification. Population attributable fraction ranged from 1.51 to 2.57% using non-differential bias analysis and 1.54-3.56% based on differential bias analysis. CONCLUSION: A marked measurement error was in self-reported alcohol consumption so after correcting misclassification bias, no evidence against independence between alcohol consumption and breast cancer changed to a substantial positive association.
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Neoplasias da Mama , Humanos , Feminino , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Viés , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/epidemiologia , CausalidadeRESUMO
Matching by a confounder in a case-control study nearly always produces a control-selection bias that mixes with the confounding to produce a net bias. Previous theoretical work has assumed that control for a single confounder, the matching factor, is sufficient to remove all the confounding and that the confounder-exposure, confounder-outcome and exposure-outcome associations are monotonic. Under these conditions: (a) The net bias is toward the null if the exposure affects the outcome and nil if it does not. (b) If the confounding is away from the null, the selection bias is toward the null. (c) If the confounding is toward the null, the selection bias can be in any direction or even nil. If more than one confounder needs to be controlled to remove all the confounding, the net bias from matching by one of them can be away from the null, whether the exposure affects the outcome or not. An influential heuristic, that matching controls to cases by a variable associated with exposure always brings the marginal exposure distributions of the case and control groups closer together, turns out to be faulty. The implications of matching by confounders in case-control studies are less straightforward than previously thought. Suggestions are offered for advancing the methodologic literature on this topic.
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BACKGROUND: Recently, dietary inflammatory index (DII) has been introduced as a significant risk factor for MS. We examined the interaction between dietary inflammatory index and some formerly demonstrated key risk factors of multiple sclerosis (MS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based incident case-control study of 547 MS cases and 1057 controls. Multiplicative and additive interaction were assessed using interaction term in the logistic regression model and synergy index (SI), respectively. RESULTS: Additive interaction was detected between DII and drug abuse (SI = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.14-5.82), gender (SI = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.39-2.87) and history of depression (SI = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.04-2.72) on the risk scale. The risk of MS in drug abusers with DII ≥ 0 was 10.4-times higher than that in non-drug abusers with DII < 0 (OR = 10.4, 95% CI: 5.12-21.02, P < 0.001). We also found that women with DII ≥ 0 had a 9.2 times larger risk compared with the men with DII < 0(OR = 9.2, 95% CI: 6.3-13.5, P < 0.001). Similarly, the risk of MS was remarkably higher in those with a history of depression and DII >0 (OR = 7.6, 95% CI: 5.1-11.5, P < 0.001). There was no evidence of multiplicative interaction between DII and the other risk factors of MS on the risk scale. CONCLUSIONS: We identified additive interaction between DII and drug abuse, gender and history of depression on MS. Further studies are needed to understand the underlying mechanisms of these detected interactions.
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Esclerose Múltipla , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Esclerose Múltipla/epidemiologia , Esclerose Múltipla/etiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Fatores de Risco , Dieta/efeitos adversos , Inflamação/complicaçõesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome is increasing worldwide. Clinical guidelines consider metabolic syndrome as an all or none medical condition. One proposed method for classifying metabolic syndrome is latent class analysis (LCA). One approach to causal inference in LCA is using propensity score (PS) methods. The aim of this study was to investigate the causal effect of smoking on latent hazard classes of metabolic syndrome using the method of latent class causal analysis. METHODS: In this study, we used data from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Cohort Study (TLGS). 4857 participants aged over 20 years with complete information on exposure (smoking) and confounders in the third phase (2005-2008) were included. Metabolic syndrome was evaluated as outcome and latent variable in LCA in the data of the fifth phase (2014-2015). The step-by-step procedure for conducting causal inference in LCA included: (1) PS estimation and evaluation of overlap, (2) calculation of inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW), (3) PS matching, (4) evaluating balance of confounding variables between exposure groups, and (5) conducting LCA using the weighted or matched data set. RESULTS: Based on the results of IPTW which compared the low, medium and high risk classes of metabolic syndrome (compared to a class without metabolic syndrome), no association was found between smoking and the metabolic syndrome latent classes. PS matching which compared low and moderate risk classes compared to class without metabolic syndrome, showed that smoking increases the probability of being in the low-risk class of metabolic syndrome (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.32, 3.63). In the unadjusted analysis, smoking increased the chances of being in the low-risk (OR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.08) and moderate-risk (OR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.18, 2.40) classes of metabolic syndrome compared to the class without metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results, the causal effect of smoking on latent hazard classes of metabolic syndrome can be different based on the type of PS method. In adjusted analysis, no relationship was observed between smoking and moderate-risk and high-risk classes of metabolic syndrome.
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Síndrome Metabólica , Humanos , Adulto , Síndrome Metabólica/epidemiologia , Fumar/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Análise de Classes Latentes , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Pontuação de PropensãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The main objective of this study was to construct and validate a composite socioeconomic status indicator containing material capital, human capital, and social capital (CAPSES scale) and also appropriate it for CVDs in a large population-based study. METHODS: This cross-sectional study, the Urban HEART-2 project, was conducted in Tehran, Iran, in 2011. A total of 34,116 households covering 118,542 individuals were assessed in this study. A 14-parts questionnaire was completed for all selected households. All the gathered data were based on the participants' self-reports. Literacy, wealth index, expenditure, skill level, and Townsend index were used as SES indexes. CVDs, including Hypertension, Myocardial infarction, and stroke, were considered the main outcomes. A structural equation model (SEM) was used to construct a CAPSES scale and a composition index of SES. Criterion validity and Construct validity were used to assess this scale. RESULTS: A total of 91,830 subjects consisting of 33,884 (49%) men were included in this analysis. The mean age of the participants was 41.5 ± 11.37 years. Among the assessed participants, 5904(6.4%) reported hypertension, 1507(1.6%) myocardial infarction, and 407(0.4%) strokes. The overall weighted prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular events (hypertension, stroke, and MI) was 8.03% (95%CI: 7.8-8.2). Inverse associations were seen between the CAPSES scale and its domains with CVDs, adjusted for sex, age, BMI, smoking, and diabetes by a multiple logistic regression model. CONCLUSION: The CAPSES scale was significantly associated with stroke and hypertension. Our findings showed that the CAPSES index could be useful for public health research.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Hipertensão , Infarto do Miocárdio , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Masculino , Humanos , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Classe Social , Inquéritos e Questionários , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM) as part of non-communicable diseases are among the most common causes of death worldwide, especially in the WHO's Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). The family physician program (FPP) proposed by WHO is a health strategy to provide primary health care and improve the community's awareness of non-communicable diseases. Since there was no clear focus on the causal effect of FPP on the prevalence, screening, and awareness of HTN and DM, the primary objective of this study is to determine the causal effect of FPP on these factors in Iran, which is an EMR country. METHODS: We conducted a repeated cross-sectional design based on two independent surveys of 42,776 adult participants in 2011 and 2016, of which 2301 individuals were selected from two regions where the family physician program was implemented (FPP) and where it wasn't (non-FPP). We used an Inverse Probability Weighting difference-in-differences and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation analysis to estimate the average treatment effects on treated (ATT) using R version 4.1.1. RESULTS: The FPP implementation increased the screening (ATT = 36%, 95% CI: (27%, 45%), P-value < 0.001) and the control of hypertension (ATT = 26%, 95% CI: (1%, 52%), P-value = 0.03) based on 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines that these results were in keeping with JNC7. There was no causal effect in other indexes, such as prevalence, awareness, and treatment. The DM screening (ATT = 20%, 95% CI: (6%, 34%), P-value = 0.004) and awareness (ATT = 14%, 95% CI: (1%, 27%), P-value = 0.042) were significantly increased among FPP administered region. However, the treatment of HTN decreased (ATT = -32%, 95% CI: (-59%, -5%), P-value = 0.012). CONCLUSION: This study has identified some limitations related to the FPP in managing HTN and DM, and presented solutions to solve them in two general categories. Thus, we recommend that the FPP be revised before the generalization of the program to other parts of Iran.
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Diabetes Mellitus , Hipertensão , Doenças não Transmissíveis , Adulto , Humanos , Prevalência , Estudos Transversais , Médicos de Família , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/terapia , Hipertensão/diagnóstico , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Hipertensão/prevenção & controle , Região do MediterrâneoRESUMO
AIM: To determine inequality and decompose it's in Self-Rated Health (SRH). METHOD: This population-based cross-sectional study was undertaken on the entire population of the city of Ilam, Iran, in 2023. Multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling with proportion-to-size approach was used to select the participants. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity in SRH and to decompose of the gap of SRH between the poor and the rich group of participants. RESULTS: 1370 persons participated in the study. The 59.38% of participants stated good SRH status and just 8.86% of participants had poor SRH status. The results of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition revealed a considerable gap (15.87%) in the poor status of SRH between the rich and the poor. A large proportion (89.66%) of this difference was described by explained portion of the model. The results of decomposition showed that economic status was directly responsible for explaining 27.98% of overall inequality gap between rich and poor people. Moreover, hopelessness to future (32.64%), having an underlying disease (18.34%) and difference in the education level (10.71%) were associated with an increase in inequality disfavoring the poor. CONCLUSION: For people suffering from underlying disease, it is suggested to devise policies to improve access to/and remove healthcare utilization barriers. To address hopelessness to future, it is recommended to carry out further studies to reveal factors which affect it in more details. This can help policy makers to formulate more realistic and evidence-informed policies on order to lessen the current socioeconomic inequity in SRH.
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Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
The purpose of this investigation is to estimate the global disease burden attributable to low physical activity (PA) in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Detailed information on global deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low PA were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The ideal exposure scenario of PA was defined as 3000-4500 metabolic equivalent minutes per week and low PA was considered to be less than this threshold. Age-standardization was used to improve the comparison of rates across locations or between time periods. In 2019, low PA seems to contribute to 0.83 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.43 to 1.47] deaths and 15.75 million (95% UI 8.52 to 28.62) DALYs globally, an increase of 83.9% (95% UI 69.3 to 105.7) and 82.9% (95% UI 65.5 to 112.1) since 1990, respectively. The age-standardized rates of low-PA-related deaths and DALYs per 100,000 people in 2019 were 11.1 (95% UI 5.7 to 19.5) and 198.4 (95% UI 108.2 to 360.3), respectively. Of all age-standardized DALYs globally in 2019, 0.6% (95% UI 0.3 to 1.1) may be attributable to low PA. The association between SDI and the proportion of age-standardized DALYs attributable to low PA suggests that regions with the highest SDI largely decreased their proportions of age-standardized DALYs attributable to low PA during 1990-2019, while other regions tended to have increased proportions in the same timeframe. In 2019, the rates of low-PA-related deaths and DALYs tended to rise with increasing age in both sexes, with no differences between males and females in the age-standardized rates. An insufficient accumulation of PA across the globe occurs together with a considerable public health burden. Health initiatives to promote PA within different age groups and countries are urgently needed.
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Previous papers have mentioned that conditioning on a binary collider would introduce an association between its causes in at least 1 stratum. In this paper, we prove this statement and, along with intuitions, formally examine the direction and magnitude of the associations between 2 risk factors of a binary collider using interaction contrasts. Among level one of the collider, 2 variables are independent, positively associated, and negatively associated if multiplicative risk interaction contrast is equal to, more than, and less than 0, respectively; the same results hold for the other level of the collider if the multiplicative survival interaction contrast, equal to multiplicative risk interaction contrast minus the additive risk interaction contrast, is compared with 0. The strength of the association depends on the magnitude of the interaction contrast: The stronger the interaction is, the larger the magnitude of the association will be. However, the common conditional odds ratio under the homogeneity assumption will be bounded. A figure is presented that succinctly illustrates our results and helps researchers to better visualize the associations introduced upon conditioning on a collider.
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Viés , Causalidade , Humanos , Razão de Chances , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for a number of communicable and non-communicable diseases, including several types of cancer. This article reports the burden of cancers attributable to alcohol consumption by age, sex, location, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cancer type from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The Comparative Risk Assessment approach was used in the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study to report the burden of cancers attributable to alcohol consumption between 1990 and 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, there were globally an estimated 494.7 thousand cancer deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 439.7 to 554.1) and 13.0 million cancer disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; 95% UI, 11.6 to 14.5) that were attributable to alcohol consumption. The alcohol-attributable DALYs were much higher in men (10.5 million; 95% UI, 9.2 to 11.8) than women (2.5 million; 95% UI, 2.2 to 2.9). The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to alcohol decreased by 14.7% (95% UI, 6.4% to 23%) and 18.1% (95% UI, 9.2% to 26.5%), respectively, over the study period. Central Europe had the highest age-standardized death rates that were attributable to alcohol consumption(10.3; 95% UI, 8.7 to12.0). Moreover, there was an overall positive association between SDI and the regional age-standardized DALY rate for alcohol-attributable cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Despite decreases in age-standardized deaths and DALYs, substantial numbers of cancer deaths and DALYs are still attributable to alcohol consumption. Because there is a higher burden in males, the elderly, and developed regions (based on SDI), these groups and regions should be prioritized in any prevention programs.
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Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência , Neoplasias , Idoso , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/efeitos adversos , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/epidemiologia , Feminino , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Humanos , Masculino , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Gliomas are considered as one of the important brain tumors in adults due to their impact on life quality and cognitive functions. Current methods that are used for treating glioma are not satisfying enough. Understanding cellular and molecular events underlying its pathogenesis and progression may lead to the discovery of novel therapeutic approaches. Sterols are a subtype of steroids and are essential for the physiologic functions of eukaryotic cells. Sterols can be produced by protozoans and microheterotrophs. Moreover, they are found in some natural sources, such as plants, animals, fungi, microalgae, and yeasts. Besides the roles of sterols in physiologic processes, studies have shown that they are involved in pathologic processes, including tumorigenesis and tumor progression. As investigations have revealed, sterol-related signaling pathways are involved in glioma and targeting them may result in new therapeutic options for patients. Thus, we summarized some of the sterol-related signaling pathways in glioma and how they can be associated with other signaling pathways, including EGFR/PI3K/Akt/mTOR, P53, and retinoblastoma protein.
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Neoplasias Encefálicas , Glioma , Transdução de Sinais , Esteróis , Neoplasias Encefálicas/tratamento farmacológico , Linhagem Celular Tumoral , Glioma/patologia , Humanos , Esteróis/metabolismoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The alertness and practice of health care providers (HCPs) in the correct management of suspected malaria (CMSM) (vigilance) is a central component of malaria surveillance following elimination, and it must be established before malaria elimination certification can be granted. This study was designed to develop and validate a rapid tool, Simulated Malaria Online Tool (SMOT), to evaluate HCPs' practice in relation to the CMSM. METHODS: The study was conducted in East Azerbaijan Province, Islamic Republic of Iran, where no malaria transmission has been reported since 2005. An online tool presenting a suspected malaria case for detection of HCPs' failures in recognition, diagnosis, treatment and reporting was developed based on literature review and expert opinion. A total of 360 HCPs were allocated to two groups. In one group their performance was tested by simulated patient (SP) methodology as gold standard, and one month later by the online tool to allow assessment of its sensitivity. In the other group, they were tested only by the online tool to allow assessment of any possible bias incurred by the exposure to SPs before the tool. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the tool was (98.7%; CI 93.6-99.3). The overall agreement and kappa statistics were 96.6% and 85.6%, respectively. In the group tested by both methods, the failure proportion by SP was 86.1% (CI 80.1-90.8) and by tool 87.2% (CI 81.4-91.7). In the other group, the tool found 85.6% (CI 79.5-90.3) failures. There were no significant differences in detecting failures within or between the groups. CONCLUSION: The SMOT tool not only showed high validity for detecting HCPs' failures in relation to CMSM, but it had high rates of agreement with the real-world situation, where malaria transmission has been interrupted. The tool can be used by program managers to evaluate HCPs' performance and identify sub-groups, whose malaria vigilance should be strengthened. It could also contribute to the evidence base for certification of malaria elimination, and to strengthening prevention of re-establishment of malaria transmission.
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Malária , Humanos , Malária/diagnóstico , Malária/prevenção & controle , Malária/epidemiologia , Pessoal de Saúde , Irã (Geográfico)RESUMO
It is well known that the statistical analyses in health-science and medical journals are frequently misleading or even wrong. Despite many decades of reform efforts by hundreds of scientists and statisticians, attempts to fix the problem by avoiding obvious error and encouraging good practice have not altered this basic situation. Statistical teaching and reporting remain mired in damaging yet editorially enforced jargon of "significance", "confidence", and imbalanced focus on null (no-effect or "nil") hypotheses, leading to flawed attempts to simplify descriptions of results in ordinary terms. A positive development amidst all this has been the introduction of interval estimates alongside or in place of significance tests and P-values, but intervals have been beset by similar misinterpretations. Attempts to remedy this situation by calling for replacement of traditional statistics with competitors (such as pure-likelihood or Bayesian methods) have had little impact. Thus, rather than ban or replace P-values or confidence intervals, we propose to replace traditional jargon with more accurate and modest ordinary-language labels that describe these statistics as measures of compatibility between data and hypotheses or models, which have long been in use in the statistical modeling literature. Such descriptions emphasize the full range of possibilities compatible with observations. Additionally, a simple transform of the P-value called the surprisal or S-value provides a sense of how much or how little information the data supply against those possibilities. We illustrate these reforms using some examples from a highly charged topic: trials of ivermectin treatment for Covid-19.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Probabilidade , Modelos Estatísticos , Intervalos de ConfiançaRESUMO
METHODS: This was a large population-based case-control study recruiting 547 incident cases and 1057 population controls between August 2013 and February 2015. DAI and INQ were calculated based on the adolescence dietary intake of the participants. Logistic regression was employed for estimating adjusted odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence interval in 2018. RESULTS: Participants with less than median DAI values had two-fold increased risk of MS onset (adjusted OR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.64-2.58, P < 0.001). A significant dose-response pattern for DAI (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI: 1.18-1.55, P for trend <0.001) was also detected. In the case of INQ, the strongest decreased risk were detected for vitamin D (OR = 0.09) and Zinc (OR = 0.34), followed by vitamin A (OR = 0.49), Calcium (OR = 0.49) and vitamin B6 (OR = 0.51) (All P-values < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Considering the inherent limitation of case-control designs, an appropriate intake of nutrient antioxidants may have a role in decreasing the likelihood of MS risk. Moreover, those with healthier diet assessed by index of nutritional quality were at decreased risk for MS.
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Antioxidantes , Dieta , Adolescente , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Valor Nutritivo , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a public health problem and a major cause of chronic liver disease around the world. The main route of HCV transmission is contact with small quantities of infectious blood. Knowledge of the distribution of HCV viral load is essential to control HCV infection. This study aimed to investigate the HCV viral load distribution among Iranian blood donors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 160 HCV confirmed blood donors with detectable HCV RNA who referred to blood transfusion centers for post-donation counseling all over the country. HCV RNA was quantified using an in-house one-step real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit. Statistical analysis was performed in STATA version 13. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 37.66 years. Out of 160 subjects, 156 (97.5 %) were male. The median viral load of the subjects was 7.7 × 104 (range: 2.28 × 10 3-3.42 × 107 IU/mL). Out of 160 blood donors, 70 (43.75 %, 95 % CI 0.36-0.51) had a viral load ≤5 × 104 IU/mL, and 90 (56.25 %, 95 % CI: 0.49-0.64) had a viral load >5 × 104 IU/mL. DISCUSSION: The distribution of HCV viral load among viremic blood donors emphasizes on the role of post-donation follow up in identification of blood donors potentially need for HCV anti-viral therapies.
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Hepacivirus , Hepatite C , Adulto , Doadores de Sangue , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Seguimentos , Hepacivirus/genética , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico) , Masculino , RNA Viral , ViremiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Spinopelvic alignment is increasingly considered as an essential factor for maintaining an energy-efficient posture in individuals with normal or pathological status. Although several previous studies have shown that changes in the sagittal spinopelvic alignment may occur in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA), no review of this area has been completed so far. Thus, the objective of this scoping review was to summarize the evidence investigating changes in spinopelvic alignment and low back pain (LBP) following THA. DATA SOURCES: We adhered to the established methodology for scoping reviews. Four electronic databases were systematically searched from inception-December 31, 2021. STUDY SELECTION: We selected prospective or retrospective observational or intervention studies that included patients with THA. DATA EXTRACTION: Data extraction and levels of evidence were independently performed using standardized checklists. DATA SYNTHESIS: A total of 45 papers were included in this scoping review, involving 5185 participants with THA. Pelvic tilt was the most common parameter measured in the eligible studies (n = 26). The results were not consistent across all studies; however, it was demonstrated that the distribution of pelvic tilt following THA had a range of 25° posterior to 20° anterior. Moreover, decreased sacral slope and lower pelvic incidence were associated with increased risk of dislocation in patients with THA. Lumbar spine scoliosis did not change significantly after THA in patients with bilateral hip osteoarthritis (5.50°(1.16°) vs. 3.73°(1.16°); P-value = 0.29). Finally, one study indicated that LBP improvement was not correlated with postoperative changes in spinopelvic alignment parameters. Several methodological issues were addressed in this study, including no sample size calculation and no type-I error adjustment for outcome multiplicity. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in spinopelvic alignment may occur after THA and may improve with time. Patients with a THA dislocation usually show abnormal spinopelvic alignment compared to patients without a THA dislocation. LBP usually improves markedly over time following THA.
Assuntos
Artroplastia de Quadril , Dor Lombar , Osteoartrite do Quadril , Artroplastia de Quadril/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Dor Lombar/diagnóstico por imagem , Dor Lombar/etiologia , Dor Lombar/cirurgia , Osteoartrite do Quadril/cirurgia , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of motor control training (MCT) compared with other physical therapist-led interventions, minimal/no intervention or surgery in patients with symptomatic lumbar disc herniation (LDH). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Eight databases and the ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception to April 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included clinical trial studies with concurrent comparison groups which examined the effectiveness of MCT in patients with symptomatic LDH. Primary outcomes were pain intensity and functional status which were expressed as mean difference (MD) and standardised mean difference (SMD), respectively. RESULTS: We screened 6695 articles, of which 16 clinical trials (861 participants) were eligible. Fourteen studies were judged to have high risk of bias and two studies had some risk of bias. In patients who did not undergo surgery, MCT resulted in clinically meaningful pain reduction compared with other physical therapist-led interventions (ie, transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS)) at short-term (MD -28.85, -40.04 to -17.66, n=69, studies=2). However, the robustness of the finding was poor. For functional status, a large and statistically significant treatment effect was found in favour of MCT compared with traditional/classic general exercises at long-term (SMD -0.83 to -1.35 to -0.31, n=63, studies=1) and other physical therapist-led interventions (ie, TENS) at short-term (SMD -1.43 to -2.41 to -0.46, n=69, studies=2). No studies compared MCT with surgery. In patients who had undergone surgery, large SMDs were seen. In favour of MCT compared with traditional/classic general exercises (SMD -0.95 to -1.32 to -0.58, n=124, studies=3), other physical therapist-led interventions (ie, conventional treatments; SMD -2.30 to -2.96 to -1.64, n=60, studies=1), and minimal intervention (SMD -1.34 to -1.87 to -0.81, n=68, studies=2) for functional improvement at short-term. The overall certainty of evidence was very low to low. CONCLUSION: At short-term, MCT improved pain and function compared with TENS in patients with symptomatic LDH who did not have surgery. MCT improved function compared with traditional/classic general exercises at long-term in patients who had undergone surgery. However, the results should be interpreted with caution because of the high risk of bias in the majority of studies. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016038166.