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1.
Ann Intern Med ; 177(4): 418-427, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38560914

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Elevated tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates have recently been reported for racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States. Tracking such disparities is important for assessing progress toward national health equity goals and implementing change. OBJECTIVE: To quantify trends in racial/ethnic disparities in TB incidence among U.S.-born persons. DESIGN: Time-series analysis of national TB registry data for 2011 to 2021. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: U.S.-born persons stratified by race/ethnicity. MEASUREMENTS: TB incidence rates, incidence rate differences, and incidence rate ratios compared with non-Hispanic White persons; excess TB cases (calculated from incidence rate differences); and the index of disparity. Analyses were stratified by sex and by attribution of TB disease to recent transmission and were adjusted for age, year, and state of residence. RESULTS: In analyses of TB incidence rates for each racial/ethnic population compared with non-Hispanic White persons, incidence rate ratios were as high as 14.2 (95% CI, 13.0 to 15.5) among American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) females. Relative disparities were greater for females, younger persons, and TB attributed to recent transmission. Absolute disparities were greater for males. Excess TB cases in 2011 to 2021 represented 69% (CI, 66% to 71%) and 62% (CI, 60% to 64%) of total cases for females and males, respectively. No evidence was found to indicate that incidence rate ratios decreased over time, and most relative disparity measures showed small, statistically nonsignificant increases. LIMITATION: Analyses assumed complete TB case diagnosis and self-report of race/ethnicity and were not adjusted for medical comorbidities or social determinants of health. CONCLUSION: There are persistent disparities in TB incidence by race/ethnicity. Relative disparities were greater for AI/AN persons, females, and younger persons, and absolute disparities were greater for males. Eliminating these disparities could reduce overall TB incidence by more than 60% among the U.S.-born population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


Assuntos
Etnicidade , Tuberculose , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Dados de Saúde Coletados Rotineiramente , Grupos Minoritários , Vigilância da População , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle
2.
Epidemiology ; 35(2): 164-173, 2024 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38290139

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the United States, over 80% of tuberculosis (TB) disease cases are estimated to result from reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired more than 2 years previously ("reactivation TB"). We estimated reactivation TB rates for the US population with LTBI, overall, by age, sex, race-ethnicity, and US-born status, and for selected comorbidities (diabetes, end-stage renal disease, and HIV). METHODS: We collated nationally representative data for 2011-2012. Reactivation TB incidence was based on TB cases reported to the National TB Surveillance System that were attributed to LTBI reactivation. Person-years at risk of reactivation TB were calculated using interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) positivity from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, published values for interferon-gamma release assay sensitivity and specificity, and population estimates from the American Community Survey. RESULTS: For persons aged ≥6 years with LTBI, the overall reactivation rate was estimated as 0.072 (95% uncertainty interval: 0.047, 0.12) per 100 person-years. Estimated reactivation rates declined with age. Compared to the overall population, estimated reactivation rates were higher for persons with diabetes (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.6 [1.5, 1.7]), end-stage renal disease (aRR = 9.8 [5.4, 19]), and HIV (aRR = 12 [10, 13]). CONCLUSIONS: In our study, individuals with LTBI faced small, non-negligible risks of reactivation TB. Risks were elevated for individuals with medical comorbidities that weaken immune function.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus , Infecções por HIV , Falência Renal Crônica , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Falência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia
3.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(10): 2102-2104, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37735769

RESUMO

We estimated direct costs of a 4-month or 6-month regimen for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis treatment in the United States. Costs were $23,000 per person treated. Actual treatment costs will vary depending on examination and medication charges, as well as expenses associated with directly observed therapy.


Assuntos
Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Tuberculose Pulmonar , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Terapia Diretamente Observada , Tuberculose Pulmonar/tratamento farmacológico
4.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(10): 2016-2023, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37647628

RESUMO

Little is known about co-occurring tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 in low TB incidence settings. We obtained a cross-section of 333 persons in the United States co-diagnosed with TB and COVID-19 within 180 days and compared them to 4,433 persons with TB only in 2020 and 18,898 persons with TB during 2017‒2019. Across both comparison groups, a higher proportion of persons with TB-COVID-19 were Hispanic, were long-term care facility residents, and had diabetes. When adjusted for age, underlying conditions, and TB severity, COVID-19 co-infection was not statistically associated with death compared with TB infection only in 2020 (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.0 [95% CI 0.8‒1.4]). Among TB-COVID-19 patients, death was associated with a shorter interval between TB and COVID-19 diagnoses, older age, and being immunocompromised (non-HIV). TB-COVID-19 deaths in the United States appear to be concentrated in subgroups sharing characteristics known to increase risk for death from either disease alone.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Tuberculose , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidade , Estudos Transversais , Tuberculose/mortalidade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
5.
BMC Med ; 21(1): 331, 2023 08 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37649031

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and associated factors vary substantially across states. While public health agencies must choose how to deploy resources to combat TB and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), state-level modeling analyses to inform policy decisions have not been widely available. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of TB epidemiology linked to a web-based user interface - Tabby2. The model is calibrated to epidemiological and demographic data for the United States, each U.S. state, and the District of Columbia. Users can simulate pre-defined scenarios describing approaches to TB prevention and treatment or create their own intervention scenarios. Location-specific results for epidemiological outcomes, service utilization, costs, and cost-effectiveness are reported as downloadable tables and customizable visualizations. To demonstrate the tool's functionality, we projected trends in TB outcomes without additional intervention for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We further undertook a case study of expanded treatment of LTBI among non-U.S.-born individuals in Massachusetts, covering 10% of the target population annually over 2025-2029. RESULTS: Between 2022 and 2050, TB incidence rates were projected to decline in all states and the District of Columbia. Incidence projections for the year 2050 ranged from 0.03 to 3.8 cases (median 0.95) per 100,000 persons. By 2050, we project that majority (> 50%) of TB will be diagnosed among non-U.S.-born persons in 46 states and the District of Columbia; per state percentages range from 17.4% to 96.7% (median 83.0%). In Massachusetts, expanded testing and treatment for LTBI in this population was projected to reduce cumulative TB cases between 2025 and 2050 by 6.3% and TB-related deaths by 8.4%, relative to base case projections. This intervention had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $180,951 (2020 USD) per quality-adjusted life year gained from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: Tabby2 allows users to estimate the costs, impact, and cost-effectiveness of different TB prevention approaches for multiple geographic areas in the United States. Expanded testing and treatment for LTBI could accelerate declines in TB incidence in the United States, as demonstrated in the Massachusetts case study.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Latente , Tuberculose , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Gravidez , Feminino , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Antibioticoprofilaxia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Parto
6.
Clin Infect Dis ; 75(8): 1433-1441, 2022 10 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35143641

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Reductions in tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been instrumental in lowering TB incidence in the United States. Sustaining and augmenting these reductions are key public health priorities. METHODS: We fit mechanistic transmission models to distributions of genotype clusters of TB cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2012-2016 in the United States and separately in California, Florida, New York, and Texas. We estimated the mean number of secondary cases generated per infectious case (R0) and individual-level heterogeneity in R0 at state and national levels and assessed how different definitions of clustering affected these estimates. RESULTS: In clusters of genotypically linked TB cases that occurred within a state over a 5-year period (reference scenario), the estimated R0 was 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], .28-.31) in the United States. Transmission was highly heterogeneous; 0.24% of simulated cases with individual R0 >10 generated 19% of all recent secondary transmissions. R0 estimate was 0.16 (95% CI, .15-.17) when a cluster was defined as cases occurring within the same county over a 3-year period. Transmission varied across states: estimated R0s were 0.34 (95% CI, .3-.4) in California, 0.28 (95% CI, .24-.36) in Florida, 0.19 (95% CI, .15-.27) in New York, and 0.38 (95% CI, .33-.46) in Texas. CONCLUSIONS: TB transmission in the United States is characterized by pronounced heterogeneity at the individual and state levels. Improving detection of transmission clusters through incorporation of whole-genome sequencing and identifying the drivers of this heterogeneity will be essential to reducing TB transmission.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , California/epidemiologia , Florida/epidemiologia , Genótipo , Humanos , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genética , New York/epidemiologia , Texas/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Estados Unidos
7.
Clin Infect Dis ; 74(9): 1594-1603, 2022 05 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34323959

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Older age is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) in low incidence settings. Using data from the US National TB Surveillance System and American Community Survey, we estimated trends and racial/ethnic differences in TB incidence among US-born cohorts aged ≥50 years. METHODS: In total, 42 000 TB cases among US-born persons ≥50 years were reported during 2001-2019. We used generalized additive regression models to decompose the effects of birth cohort and age on TB incidence rates, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Using genotype-based estimates of recent transmission (available 2011-2019), we implemented additional models to decompose incidence trends by estimated recent versus remote infection. RESULTS: Estimated incidence rates declined with age, for the overall cohort and most sex and race/ethnicity strata. Average annual percentage declines flattened for older individuals, from 8.80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.34-9.23) in 51-year-olds to 4.51% (95% CI 3.87-5.14) in 90-year-olds. Controlling for age, incidence rates were lower for more recent birth cohorts, dropping 8.79% (95% CI 6.13-11.26) on average between successive cohort years. Incidence rates were substantially higher for racial/ethnic minorities, and these inequalities persisted across all birth cohorts. Rates from recent infection declined at approximately 10% per year as individuals aged. Rates from remote infection declined more slowly with age, and this annual percentage decline approached zero for the oldest individuals. CONCLUSIONS: TB rates were highest for racial/ethnic minorities and for the earliest birth cohorts and declined with age. For the oldest individuals, annual percentage declines were low, and most cases were attributed to remote infection.


Assuntos
Tuberculose , Criança , Estudos de Coortes , Etnicidade , Humanos , Incidência , Vigilância da População , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
8.
Epidemiology ; 33(1): 75-83, 2022 01 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34669631

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Effective targeting of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment requires identifying those most likely to progress to tuberculosis (TB). We estimated the potential health and economic benefits of diagnostics with improved discrimination for LTBI that will progress to TB. METHODS: A base case scenario represented current LTBI testing and treatment services in the United States in 2020, with diagnosis via. interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). Alternative scenarios represented tests with higher positive predictive value (PPV) for future TB but similar price to IGRA, and scenarios that additionally assumed higher treatment initiation and completion. We predicted outcomes using multiple transmission-dynamic models calibrated to different geographic areas and estimated costs from a societal perspective. RESULTS: In 2020, 2.1% (range across model results: 1.1%-3.4%) of individuals with LTBI were predicted to develop TB in their remaining lifetime. For IGRA, we estimated the PPV for future TB as 1.3% (0.6%-1.8%). Relative to IGRA, we estimated a test with 10% PPV would reduce treatment volume by 87% (82%-94%), reduce incremental costs by 30% (15%-52%), and increase quality-adjusted life years by 3% (2%-6%). Cost reductions and health improvements were substantially larger for scenarios in which higher PPV for future TB was associated with greater initiation and completion of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that tests with better predictive performance would substantially reduce the number of individuals treated to prevent TB but would have a modest impact on incremental costs and health impact of TB prevention services, unless accompanied by greater treatment acceptance and completion.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Latente , Tuberculose , Humanos , Testes de Liberação de Interferon-gama , Tuberculose Latente/complicações , Tuberculose Latente/diagnóstico , Tuberculose Latente/epidemiologia , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Teste Tuberculínico , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
9.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(9): e3476-e3482, 2021 11 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32584968

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Targeted testing and treatment (TTT) for latent tuberculosis (TB) infection (LTBI) is a recommended strategy to accelerate TB reductions and further TB elimination in the United States. Evidence on cost-effectiveness of TTT for key populations can help advance this goal. METHODS: We used a model of TB transmission to estimate the numbers of individuals who could be tested by interferon-γ release assay and treated for LTBI with 3 months of self-administered rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP) under various TTT scenarios. Specifically, we considered rapidly scaling up TTT among people who are non-US-born, diabetic, living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), homeless or incarcerated in California, Florida, New York, and Texas-states where more than half of US TB cases occur. We projected costs (from the healthcare system perspective, in 2018 dollars), 30-year reductions in TB incidence, and incremental cost-effectiveness (cost per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained) for TTT in each modeled population. RESULTS: The projected cost-effectiveness of TTT differed substantially by state and population, while the health impact (number of TB cases averted) was consistently greatest among non-US-born individuals. TTT was most cost-effective among persons with HIV (from $2828/QALY gained in Florida to $11 265/QALY gained in New York) and least cost-effective among people with diabetes (from $223 041/QALY gained in California to $817 753/QALY in New York). CONCLUSIONS: The modeled cost-effectiveness of TTT for LTBI varies across states but was consistently greatest among people with HIV; moderate among people who are non-US-born, incarcerated, or homeless; and least cost-effective among people with diabetes.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Latente , California/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Florida/epidemiologia , Humanos , Tuberculose Latente/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose Latente/epidemiologia , New York , Texas/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos
10.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(Suppl 1): S92-S97, 2021 07 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33977297

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza and influenza-associated complications including those leading to hospitalization. Resources otherwise used for influenza could support caring for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) Health Center Program serves 30 million people annually by providing comprehensive primary healthcare, including influenza vaccination, to demographically diverse and historically underserved communities. Because racial and ethnic minority groups have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19, the objective of this analysis was to assess disparities in influenza vaccination at HRSA-funded health centers during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and HRSA analyzed cross-sectional data on influenza vaccinations from a weekly, voluntary health center COVID-19 survey after addition of an influenza-related question covering 7-11 November 2020. RESULTS: During the 3-week period, 1126 of 1385 health centers (81%) responded to the survey. Most of the 811 738 influenza vaccinations took place in urban areas and in the Western US region. There were disproportionately more health center influenza vaccinations among racial and ethnic minorities in comparison with county demographics, except among non-Hispanic blacks and American Indian/Alaska Natives. CONCLUSIONS: HRSA-funded health centers were able to quickly vaccinate large numbers of mostly racial or ethnic minority populations, disproportionately more than county demographics. However, additional efforts might be needed to reach specific racial populations and persons in rural areas. Success in influenza vaccination efforts can support success in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccination efforts.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas contra Influenza , Influenza Humana , Estudos Transversais , Etnicidade , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Grupos Minoritários , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação
11.
Lancet ; 396(10248): 402-411, 2020 08 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32771107

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: HIV-infection is associated with increased mortality during multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, but the extent to which the use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and anti-tuberculosis medications modify this risk are unclear. Our objective was to evaluate how use of these treatments altered mortality risk in HIV-positive adults with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. METHODS: We did an individual patient data meta-analysis of adults 18 years or older with confirmed or presumed multidrug-resistant tuberculosis initiating tuberculosis treatment between 1993 and 2016. Data included ART use and anti-tuberculosis medications grouped according to WHO effectiveness categories. The primary analysis compared HIV-positive with HIV-negative patients in terms of death during multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, excluding those lost to follow up, and was stratified by ART use. Analyses used logistic regression after exact matching on country World Bank income classification and drug resistance and propensity-score matching on age, sex, geographic site, year of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment initiation, previous tuberculosis treatment, directly observed therapy, and acid-fast-bacilli smear-positivity to obtain adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs. Secondary analyses were conducted among those with HIV-infection. FINDINGS: We included 11 920 multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients. 2997 (25%) were HIV-positive and on ART, 886 (7%) were HIV-positive and not on ART, and 1749 (15%) had extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. By use of HIV-negative patients as reference, the aOR of death was 2·4 (95% CI 2·0-2·9) for all patients with HIV-infection, 1·8 (1·5-2·2) for HIV-positive patients on ART, and 4·2 (3·0-5·9) for HIV-positive patients with no or unknown ART. Among patients with HIV, use of at least one WHO Group A drug and specific use of moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, bedaquiline, or linezolid were associated with significantly decreased odds of death. INTERPRETATION: Use of ART and more effective anti-tuberculosis drugs is associated with lower odds of death among HIV-positive patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Access to these therapies should be urgently pursued. FUNDING: American Thoracic Society, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, European Respiratory Society, Infectious Diseases Society of America.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/mortalidade , Adulto , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/complicações
12.
Epidemiology ; 32(1): 70-78, 2021 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33009253

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Risk of tuberculosis (TB) declines over time since Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but progression to clinical disease is still possible decades later. In the United States, most TB cases result from the progression of latent TB infection acquired over 2 years ago. METHODS: We synthesized evidence on TB natural history and incidence trends using a transmission-dynamic model. For the 2020 US population, we estimated average time since infection and annual, cumulative, and remaining lifetime risks of progression to TB, by nativity and age. RESULTS: For a newly infected adult with no other risk factors for progression to TB, estimated rates of progression declined from 38 (95% uncertainty interval: 33, 46) to 0.38 (0.32, 0.45) per 1000 person-years between the first and 25th year since infection. Cumulative risk over 25 years from new infection was 7.9% (7.0, 8.9). In 2020, an estimated average age of individuals with prevalent infection was 62 (61, 63) for the US-born population, 55 (54, 55) for non-US-born, and 57 (56, 58) overall. Average risks of developing TB over the remaining lifetime were 1.2% (1.0, 1.4) for US-born, 2.2% (1.8, 2.6) for non-US-born, and 1.9% (1.6, 2.2) for the general population. Risk estimates were higher for younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that, although newly infected individuals face appreciable lifetime TB risks, most US individuals with latent TB infection were infected long ago, and face low future risks of developing TB. Better approaches are needed for identifying recently infected individuals and those with elevated progression risks.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Latente , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Adulto , Humanos , Incidência , Tuberculose Latente/epidemiologia , Probabilidade , Risco , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
13.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(7): 240-244, 2021 Feb 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33600385

RESUMO

Telehealth can facilitate access to care, reduce risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), conserve scarce medical supplies, and reduce strain on health care capacity and facilities while supporting continuity of care. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA)-funded health centers* expanded telehealth† services during the COVID-19 pandemic (1). The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services eliminated geographic restrictions and enhanced reimbursement so that telehealth services-enabled health centers could expand telehealth services and continue providing care during the pandemic (2,3). CDC and HRSA analyzed data from 245 health centers that completed a voluntary weekly HRSA Health Center COVID-19 Survey§ for 20 consecutive weeks to describe trends in telehealth use. During the weeks ending June 26-November 6, 2020, the overall percentage of weekly health care visits conducted via telehealth (telehealth visits) decreased by 25%, from 35.8% during the week ending June 26 to 26.9% for the week ending November 6, averaging 30.2% over the study period. Weekly telehealth visits declined when COVID-19 cases were decreasing and plateaued as cases were increasing. Health centers in the South and in rural areas consistently reported the lowest average percentage of weekly telehealth visits over the 20 weeks, compared with health centers in other regions and urban areas. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, maintaining and expanding telehealth services will be critical to ensuring access to care while limiting exposure to SARS-CoV-2.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Instalações de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , Telemedicina/estatística & dados numéricos , Telemedicina/tendências , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
14.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 202(11): 1567-1575, 2020 12 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32645277

RESUMO

Rationale: Most U.S. residents who develop tuberculosis (TB) were born abroad, and U.S. TB incidence is increasingly driven by infection risks in other countries.Objectives: To estimate the potential impact of effective global TB control on health and economic outcomes in the United States.Methods: We estimated outcomes using linked mathematical models of TB epidemiology in the United States and migrants' birth countries. A base-case scenario extrapolated country-specific TB incidence trends. We compared this with scenarios in which countries achieve 90% TB incidence reductions between 2015 and 2035, as targeted by the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy ("effective global TB control"). We also considered pessimistic scenarios of flat TB incidence trends in individual countries.Measurements and Main Results: We estimated TB cases, deaths, and costs and the total economic burden of TB in the United States. Compared with the base-case scenario, effective global TB control would avert 40,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 29,000-55,000) TB cases in the United States in 2020-2035. TB incidence rates in 2035 would be 43% (95% uncertainty interval, 34-54%) lower than in the base-case scenario, and 49% (95% uncertainty interval, 44-55%) lower than in 2020. Summed over 2020-2035, this represents 0.8 billion dollars (95% uncertainty interval, 0.6-1.0 billion dollars) in averted healthcare costs and $2.5 billion dollars (95% uncertainty interval, 1.7-3.6 billion dollars) in productivity gains. The total U.S. economic burden of TB (including the value of averted TB deaths) would be 21% (95% uncertainty interval, 16-28%) lower (18 billion dollars [95% uncertainty level, 8-32 billion dollars]).Conclusions: In addition to producing major health benefits for high-burden countries, strengthened efforts to achieve effective global TB control could produce substantial health and economic benefits for the United States.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Emigrantes e Imigrantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , China/epidemiologia , China/etnologia , Erradicação de Doenças , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Incidência , Índia/epidemiologia , Índia/etnologia , México/epidemiologia , México/etnologia , Modelos Teóricos , Filipinas/epidemiologia , Filipinas/etnologia , Tuberculose/economia , Tuberculose/mortalidade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vietnã/epidemiologia , Vietnã/etnologia
15.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 201(3): 356-365, 2020 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31626560

RESUMO

Rationale: Mathematical modeling is used to understand disease dynamics, forecast trends, and inform public health prioritization. We conducted a comparative analysis of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology and potential intervention effects in California, using three previously developed epidemiologic models of TB.Objectives: To compare the influence of various modeling methods and assumptions on epidemiologic projections of domestic latent TB infection (LTBI) control interventions in California.Methods: We compared model results between 2005 and 2050 under a base-case scenario representing current TB services and alternative scenarios including: 1) sustained interruption of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission, 2) sustained resolution of LTBI and TB prior to entry of new residents, and 3) one-time targeted testing and treatment of LTBI among 25% of non-U.S.-born individuals residing in California.Measurements and Main Results: Model estimates of TB cases and deaths in California were in close agreement over the historical period but diverged for LTBI prevalence and new Mtb infections-outcomes for which definitive data are unavailable. Between 2018 and 2050, models projected average annual declines of 0.58-1.42% in TB cases, without additional interventions. A one-time LTBI testing and treatment intervention among non-U.S.-born residents was projected to produce sustained reductions in TB incidence. Models found prevalent Mtb infection and migration to be more significant drivers of future TB incidence than local transmission.Conclusions: All models projected a stagnation in the decline of TB incidence, highlighting the need for additional interventions including greater access to LTBI diagnosis and treatment for non-U.S.-born individuals. Differences in model results reflect gaps in historical data and uncertainty in the trends of key parameters, demonstrating the need for high-quality, up-to-date data on TB determinants and outcomes.


Assuntos
Modelos Teóricos , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , California/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Política de Saúde , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Tuberculose Latente/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Latente/prevenção & controle , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Adulto Jovem
16.
Clin Infect Dis ; 70(8): 1596-1605, 2020 04 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31233131

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Monoresistance to rifamycins necessitates longer and more toxic regimens for tuberculosis (TB). We examined characteristics and mortality associated with rifampin-monoresistant (RMR) TB in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture-positive cases reported to the National TB Surveillance System (excluding California) between 1998 and 2014. We defined RMR TB found on initial drug susceptibility testing and possible acquired rifampin-resistant (ARR) TB. We assessed temporal trends in RMR TB. For both classifications of rifampin resistance, we calculated adjusted risk ratios (adjRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for characteristics associated with mortality when compared with drug-susceptible TB in multivariable models using backward selection. RESULTS: Of 180 329 TB cases, 126 431 (70%) were eligible for analysis, with 359 (0.28%) of eligible cases reported as RMR. The percentage of RMR TB cases with HIV declined 4% annually between 1998 and 2014. Persons with HIV and prior TB were more likely to have RMR TB (adjRR, 25.9; 95% CI, 17.6-38.1), as were persons with HIV and no prior TB (adjRR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.4-4.1) vs those without either characteristic, controlling for other statistically significant variables. RMR cases had greater mortality (adjRR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.04-1.8), controlling for HIV and other variables. Persons with HIV had greater risk of ARR than persons without HIV (adjRR, 9.6; 95% CI, 6.9-13.3), and ARR was also associated with increased mortality, controlling for HIV and other variables. CONCLUSIONS: All forms of rifampin resistance were positively associated with HIV infection and increased mortality.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos , Tuberculose , Antituberculosos/farmacologia , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Isoniazida , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Estudos Retrospectivos , Rifampina , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
17.
Clin Infect Dis ; 70(5): 907-916, 2020 02 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30944927

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended a shorter (9-12 month) multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment regimen (as compared to the conventional 18-24 month regimen) for patients without extrapulmonary TB, pregnancy, a previous second-line TB medication exposure, or drug resistance to pyrazinamide, ethambutol, kanamycin, moxifloxacin, ethionamide, or clofazimine. The recommendation was based on successful clinical trials conducted in Asia and Africa, but studies, using mainly European data, have shown few patients in higher-resource settings would meet WHO eligibility criteria. METHODS: We assessed eligibility for the shorter regimen among US MDR-TB cases that had full drug susceptibility testing (DST) results and were reported during 2011-2016 to the US National TB Surveillance System. We estimated costs by applying the eligibility criteria for the shorter regimen, and proportional inpatient/outpatient costs from a previous, population-based study, to all MDR-TB patients reported to the National TB Surveillance System. RESULTS: Of 586 reported MDR-TB cases, 10% (59) were eligible for the shorter regimen. Of 527 ineligible patients, 386 had full DST, of which 246 were resistant to ethambutol and 217 were resistant to pyrazinamide. Compared with conventional MDR-TB treatment, implementing the shorter regimen would have reduced the US annual societal MDR-TB cost burden by 4%, but the cost burden for eligible individuals would have been reduced by 37-46%. CONCLUSIONS: Relying on full DST use, our analysis found a minority of US MDR-TB patients would have been eligible for the shorter regimen. Cost reductions would have been minimal for society, but large for eligible individuals.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos , África , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Ásia , Humanos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
18.
Am J Public Health ; 110(11): 1696-1703, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941064

RESUMO

Objectives. To assess costs of video and traditional in-person directly observed therapy (DOT) for tuberculosis (TB) treatment to health departments and patients in New York City, Rhode Island, and San Francisco, California.Methods. We collected health department costs for video DOT (VDOT; live and recorded), and in-person DOT (field- and clinic-based). Time-motion surveys estimated provider time and cost. A separate survey collected patient costs. We used a regression model to estimate cost by DOT type.Results. Between August 2017 and June 2018, 343 DOT sessions were captured from 225 patients; 87 completed a survey. Patient costs were lowest for VDOT live ($1.01) and highest for clinic DOT ($34.53). The societal (health department + patient) costs of VDOT live and recorded ($6.65 and $12.64, respectively) were less than field and clinic DOT ($21.40 and $46.11, respectively). VDOT recorded health department cost was not statistically different from field DOT cost in Rhode Island.Conclusions. Among the 4 different modalities, both types of VDOT were associated with lower societal costs when compared with traditional forms of DOT.Public Health Implications. VDOT was associated with lower costs from the societal perspective and may reduce public health costs when TB incidence is high.


Assuntos
Instituições de Assistência Ambulatorial/organização & administração , Antituberculosos/administração & dosagem , Terapia Diretamente Observada , Telemedicina/organização & administração , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Instituições de Assistência Ambulatorial/economia , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Custos e Análise de Custo , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Adesão à Medicação , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Econômicos , Telemedicina/economia , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
19.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 200(10): e93-e142, 2019 11 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31729908

RESUMO

Background: The American Thoracic Society, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, European Respiratory Society, and Infectious Diseases Society of America jointly sponsored this new practice guideline on the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB). The document includes recommendations on the treatment of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) as well as isoniazid-resistant but rifampin-susceptible TB.Methods: Published systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and a new individual patient data meta-analysis from 12,030 patients, in 50 studies, across 25 countries with confirmed pulmonary rifampin-resistant TB were used for this guideline. Meta-analytic approaches included propensity score matching to reduce confounding. Each recommendation was discussed by an expert committee, screened for conflicts of interest, according to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology.Results: Twenty-one Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcomes questions were addressed, generating 25 GRADE-based recommendations. Certainty in the evidence was judged to be very low, because the data came from observational studies with significant loss to follow-up and imbalance in background regimens between comparator groups. Good practices in the management of MDR-TB are described. On the basis of the evidence review, a clinical strategy tool for building a treatment regimen for MDR-TB is also provided.Conclusions: New recommendations are made for the choice and number of drugs in a regimen, the duration of intensive and continuation phases, and the role of injectable drugs for MDR-TB. On the basis of these recommendations, an effective all-oral regimen for MDR-TB can be assembled. Recommendations are also provided on the role of surgery in treatment of MDR-TB and for treatment of contacts exposed to MDR-TB and treatment of isoniazid-resistant TB.


Assuntos
Antituberculosos/administração & dosagem , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/diagnóstico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Tuberculose Pulmonar/tratamento farmacológico , Esquema de Medicação , Quimioterapia Combinada , Humanos , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/microbiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/microbiologia
20.
J Public Health Manag Pract ; 26(5): E5-E12, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32732731

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: US-born non-Hispanic black persons (blacks) (12% of the US population) accounted for 41% of HIV diagnoses during 2008-2014. HIV infection significantly increases TB and TB-related mortality. TB rate ratios were 6 to 7 times as high in blacks versus US-born non-Hispanic whites (whites) during 2013-2016. We analyzed a sample of black and white TB patients to assess the impact of HIV infection on TB racial disparities. METHODS: In total, 552 black and white TB patients with known HIV/AIDS status were recruited from 10 US sites in 2009-2010. We abstracted data from the National TB Surveillance System, medical records, and death certificates and interviewed 477 patients. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of TB with HIV infection, late HIV diagnosis (≤3 months before or any time after TB diagnosis), and mortality during TB treatment. RESULTS: Twenty-one percent of the sample had HIV/AIDS infection. Blacks (AOR = 3.4; 95% CI, 1.7-6.8) and persons with recent homelessness (AOR = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.3) had greater odds of HIV infection than others. The majority of HIV-infected/TB patients were diagnosed with HIV infection 3 months or less before (57%) or after (4%) TB diagnosis. Among HIV-infected/TB patients, blacks had similar percentages to whites (61% vs 57%) of late HIV diagnosis. Twenty-five percent of HIV-infected/TB patients died, 38% prior to TB diagnosis and 62% during TB treatment. Blacks did not have significantly greater odds of TB-related mortality than whites (AOR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6-2.1). CONCLUSIONS: Black TB patients had greater HIV prevalence than whites. While mortality was associated with HIV infection, it was not significantly associated with black or white race.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Pessoas Mal Alojadas , Tuberculose , População Negra , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Razão de Chances , Grupos Raciais , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , População Branca
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