Feasibility, safety, and impact of the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine when implemented through national immunisation programmes: evaluation of cluster-randomised introduction of the vaccine in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine (RTS,S) was introduced by national immunisation programmes in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi in 2019 in large-scale pilot schemes. We aimed to address questions about feasibility and impact, and to assess safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial that included an excess of meningitis and cerebral malaria cases in RTS,S recipients, and the possibility of an excess of deaths among girls who received RTS,S than in controls, to inform decisions about wider use. METHODS: In this prospective evaluation, 158 geographical clusters (66 districts in Ghana; 46 sub-counties in Kenya; and 46 groups of immunisation clinic catchment areas in Malawi) were randomly assigned to early or delayed introduction of RTS,S, with three doses to be administered between the ages of 5 months and 9 months and a fourth dose at the age of approximately 2 years. Primary outcomes of the evaluation, planned over 4 years, were mortality from all causes except injury (impact), hospital admission with severe malaria (impact), hospital admission with meningitis or cerebral malaria (safety), deaths in girls compared with boys (safety), and vaccination coverage (feasibility). Mortality was monitored in children aged 1-59 months throughout the pilot areas. Surveillance for meningitis and severe malaria was established in eight sentinel hospitals in Ghana, six in Kenya, and four in Malawi. Vaccine uptake was measured in surveys of children aged 12-23 months about 18 months after vaccine introduction. We estimated that sufficient data would have accrued after 24 months to evaluate each of the safety signals and the impact on severe malaria in a pooled analysis of the data from the three countries. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by comparing the ratio of the number of events in children age-eligible to have received at least one dose of the vaccine (for safety outcomes), or age-eligible to have received three doses (for impact outcomes), to that in non-eligible age groups in implementation areas with the equivalent ratio in comparison areas. To establish whether there was evidence of a difference between girls and boys in the vaccine's impact on mortality, the female-to-male mortality ratio in age groups eligible to receive the vaccine (relative to the ratio in non-eligible children) was compared between implementation and comparison areas. Preliminary findings contributed to WHO's recommendation in 2021 for widespread use of RTS,S in areas of moderate-to-high malaria transmission. FINDINGS: By April 30, 2021, 652 673 children had received at least one dose of RTS,S and 494 745 children had received three doses. Coverage of the first dose was 76% in Ghana, 79% in Kenya, and 73% in Malawi, and coverage of the third dose was 66% in Ghana, 62% in Kenya, and 62% in Malawi. 26 285 children aged 1-59 months were admitted to sentinel hospitals and 13 198 deaths were reported through mortality surveillance. Among children eligible to have received at least one dose of RTS,S, there was no evidence of an excess of meningitis or cerebral malaria cases in implementation areas compared with comparison areas (hospital admission with meningitis: IRR 0·63 [95% CI 0·22-1·79]; hospital admission with cerebral malaria: IRR 1·03 [95% CI 0·61-1·74]). The impact of RTS,S introduction on mortality was similar for girls and boys (relative mortality ratio 1·03 [95% CI 0·88-1·21]). Among children eligible for three vaccine doses, RTS,S introduction was associated with a 32% reduction (95% CI 5-51%) in hospital admission with severe malaria, and a 9% reduction (95% CI 0-18%) in all-cause mortality (excluding injury). INTERPRETATION: In the first 2 years of implementation of RTS,S, the three primary doses were effectively deployed through national immunisation programmes. There was no evidence of the safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial, and introduction of the vaccine was associated with substantial reductions in hospital admission with severe malaria. Evaluation continues to assess the impact of four doses of RTS,S. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; and Unitaid.

An intervention to improve lumbar puncture rates for meningitis surveillance in children at four secondary health facilities in Malawi: A before/after analysis.

OBJECTIVES: A lumbar puncture (LP) procedure plays a key role in meningitis diagnosis. In Malawi and other sub-Saharan African countries, LP completion rates are sometimes poor, making meningitis surveillance challenging. Our objective was to measure LP rates following an intervention to improve these during a sentinel hospital meningitis surveillance exercise in Malawi. METHODS: We conducted a before/after intervention analysis among under-five children admitted to paediatric wards at four secondary health facilities in Malawi. We used local and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines to determine indications for LP, as these are widely used in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The intervention comprised of refresher trainings for facility staff on LP indications and procedure, use of automated reminders to perform LP in real time in the wards, with an electronic data management system, and addition of surveillance-specific clinical officers to support existing health facility staff with performing LPs. Due to the low numbers in the before/after analysis, we also performed a during/after analysis to supplement the findings. RESULTS: A total of 13,375 under-five children were hospitalised over the 21 months window for this analysis. The LP rate was 10.4% (12/115) and 60.4% (32/53) in the before/after analysis, respectively, and 43.8% (441/1006) and 72.5% (424/599) in the supplemental during/after analysis, respectively. In our intervention-specific analysis among the three individual components, there were improvements in the LP rate by 48% (p < 0.001) following the introduction of surveillance-specific clinical officers, 10% (p < 0.001) following the introduction of automated reminders to perform an LP and 13% following refresher training. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrated a rise in LP rates following our intervention. This intervention package may be considered for planning future facility-based meningitis surveillances in similar low-resource settings.

Whole-genome analysis of Malawian Plasmodium falciparum isolates identifies possible targets of allele-specific immunity to clinical malaria.

Individuals acquire immunity to clinical malaria after repeated Plasmodium falciparum infections. Immunity to disease is thought to reflect the acquisition of a repertoire of responses to multiple alleles in diverse parasite antigens. In previous studies, we identified polymorphic sites within individual antigens that are associated with parasite immune evasion by examining antigen allele dynamics in individuals followed longitudinally. Here we expand this approach by analyzing genome-wide polymorphisms using whole genome sequence data from 140 parasite isolates representing malaria cases from a longitudinal study in Malawi and identify 25 genes that encode possible targets of naturally acquired immunity that should be validated immunologically and further characterized for their potential as vaccine candidates.

Barriers to accessing malaria treatment amongst school-age children in rural Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Over the last two decades, many countries have moved from malaria control toward malaria elimination. However, some sub-Saharan African countries, like Malawi, have recently seen a reversal in malaria control progress with reported increases in confirmed malaria cases. This may be the result of inadequate access to effective malaria control interventions by key population groups that perpetuate transmission. This study aimed to assess the barriers to accessing malaria treatment among school-aged children (SAC) in Malawi. METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted between September and October 2020, where data were gathered in rural Malawi using free-listing interviews, key-informant interviews, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Purposively sampled participants included SAC, parents of SAC, health workers and key stakeholders at community and district levels. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were organized using NVivo 12 software and analysed using the thematic method. RESULTS: The study recruited 252 participants, with 156 being SAC, equally divided between boys and girls. Health system barriers to malaria treatment included long waiting hours and queues at clinics, frequent stock-outs of medical supplies, and travel time to the facility. Provider barriers included negative attitude and limited service hours. Individual and cultural barriers included fear of malaria tests and beliefs associating witchcraft as the best treatment for malaria. In addition, COVID-19-related barriers included the inability to follow preventive measures, a shift in focus from malaria to COVID-19, and fear of contracting COVID-19 and/or being tested for COVID-19 at the facility. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows most of the barriers to accessing malaria treatment among SAC are similar to those experienced by other population groups. Furthermore, COVID-19 adversely affected SAC's access to treatment. Interventions that support SAC access to prompt diagnosis and treatment are urgently needed to improve the effective control of malaria.

Prompt treatment-seeking behaviour varies within communities among guardians of children with malaria-related fever in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: In Malawi, malaria is responsible for 40% of hospital deaths. Prompt diagnosis and effective treatment within 24 h of fever onset is critical to prevent progression from uncomplicated to severe disease and to reduce transmission. METHODS: As part of the large evaluation of the malaria vaccine implementation programme (MVIP), this study analysed survey data to investigate whether prompt treatment-seeking behaviour is clustered at community-level according to socio-economic demographics. RESULTS: From 4563 households included in the survey, 4856 children aged 5-48 months were enrolled. Out of 4732 children with documented gender, 52.2% were female and 47.8% male. Among the 4856 children, 33.8% reported fever in the two weeks prior to the survey. Fever prevalence was high in communities with low socio-economic status (SES) (38.3% [95% CI: 33.7-43.5%]) and low in areas with high SES (29.8% [95% CI: 25.6-34.2%]). Among children with fever, 648 (39.5%) sought treatment promptly i.e., within 24 h from onset of fever symptoms. Children were more likely to be taken for prompt treatment among guardians with secondary education compared to those without formal education (aOR:1.37, 95% CI: 1.11-3.03); in communities with high compared to low SES [aOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.27-6.07]. Children were less likely to be taken for prompt treatment if were in communities far beyond 5 km to health facility than within 5 km [aOR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.21-0.92]. CONCLUSION: The high heterogeneity in prevalence of fever and levels of prompt treatment-seeking behaviour underscore the need to promote community-level malaria control interventions (such as use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive therapy (IPT), presumptive treatment and education). Programmes aimed at improving treatment-seeking behaviour should consider targeting communities with low SES and those far from health facility.

Plasmodium falciparum infection and disease in infancy associated with increased risk of malaria and anaemia in childhood.

BACKGROUND: Infants under 6 months of age are often excluded from malaria surveillance and observational studies. The impact of malaria during early infancy on health later in childhood remains unknown. METHODS: Infants from two birth cohorts in Malawi were monitored at quarterly intervals and whenever they were ill from birth through 24 months for Plasmodium falciparum infections and clinical malaria. Poisson regression and linear mixed effects models measured the effect of exposure to malaria in infancy on subsequent malaria incidence, weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ), and haemoglobin concentrations after 6 months. RESULTS: Infants with at least one P. falciparum infection during their first 6 months had increased incidence ratio (IRR) of P. falciparum infection (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.06-1.52) and clinical malaria (IRR = 2.37, 95% CI, 2.02-2.80) compared to infants without infection. Infants with clinical malaria had increased risk of P. falciparum infection incidence between 6 and 24 months (IRR = 1.64, 95% CI, 1.38-1.94) and clinical malaria (IRR = 1.85, 95% CI, 1.48-2.32). Exposure to malaria was associated with lower WAZ over time (p = 0.02) and lower haemoglobin levels than unexposed infants at every time interval (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Infants experiencing malaria infection or clinical malaria are at increased risk of subsequent infection and disease, have poorer growth, and lower haemoglobin concentrations.

Genotyping of Anopheles mosquito blood meals reveals nonrandom human host selection: implications for human-to-mosquito Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

BACKGROUND: Control of malaria parasite transmission can be enhanced by understanding which human demographic groups serve as the infectious reservoirs. Because vector biting can be heterogeneous, some infected individuals may contribute more to human-to-mosquito transmission than others. Infection prevalence peaks in school-age children, but it is not known how often they are fed upon. Genotypic profiling of human blood permits identification of individual humans who were bitten. The present investigation used this method to estimate which human demographic groups were most responsible for transmitting malaria parasites to Anopheles mosquitoes. It was hypothesized that school-age children contribute more than other demographic groups to human-to-mosquito malaria transmission. METHODS: In a region of moderate-to-high malaria incidence in southeastern Malawi, randomly selected households were surveyed to collect human demographic information and blood samples. Blood-fed, female Anopheles mosquitoes were sampled indoors from the same houses. Genomic DNA from human blood samples and mosquito blood meals of human origin was genotyped using 24 microsatellite loci. The resultant genotypes were matched to identify which individual humans were sources of blood meals. In addition, Plasmodium falciparum DNA in mosquito abdomens was detected with polymerase chain reaction. The combined results were used to identify which humans were most frequently bitten, and the P. falciparum infection prevalence in mosquitoes that resulted from these blood meals. RESULTS: Anopheles females selected human hosts non-randomly and fed on more than one human in 9% of the blood meals. Few humans contributed most of the blood meals to the Anopheles vector population. Children ≤ 5 years old were under-represented in mosquito blood meals while older males (31-75 years old) were over-represented. However, the largest number of malaria-infected blood meals was from school age children (6-15 years old). CONCLUSIONS: The results support the hypothesis that humans aged 6-15 years are the most important demographic group contributing to the transmission of P. falciparum to the Anopheles mosquito vectors. This conclusion suggests that malaria control and prevention programmes should enhance efforts targeting school-age children and males.

The Effect of Intermittent Preventive Treatment of Malaria During Pregnancy and Placental Malaria on Infant Risk of Malaria.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) provides greater protection from placental malaria than sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). Some studies suggest placental malaria alters risk of malaria infection in infants, but few have quantified the effect of IPTp on infant susceptibility to malaria. METHODS: Infants born to women enrolled in a randomized clinical trial comparing IPTp-SP and IPTp-DP in Malawi were followed from birth to 24 months to assess effect of IPTp and placental malaria on time to first malaria episode and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. RESULTS: In total, 192 infants born to mothers randomized to IPTp-SP and 195 randomized to IPTp-DP were enrolled. Infants in IPTp exposure groups did not differ significantly regarding incidence of clinical malaria (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], .58-1.86) or incidence of infection (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, .92-1.55). Placental malaria exposure was not associated with incidence of clinical malaria (IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, .66-1.59) or infection (IRR, 1.15; 95% CI, .88-1.50). Infant sex, season of birth, and maternal gravidity did not confound results. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence that IPTp regimen or placental malaria exposure influenced risk of malaria during infancy in this population. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03009526.

School-Based Malaria Screening and Treatment Reduces Plasmodium falciparum Infection and Anemia Prevalence in Two Transmission Settings in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: In areas highly endemic for malaria, Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence peaks in school-age children, adversely affecting health and education. School-based intermittent preventive treatment reduces this burden but concerns about cost and widespread use of antimalarial drugs limit enthusiasm for this approach. School-based screening and treatment is an attractive alternative. In a prospective cohort study, we evaluated the impact of school-based screening and treatment on the prevalence of P. falciparum infection and anemia in 2 transmission settings. METHODS: We screened 704 students in 4 Malawian primary schools for P. falciparum infection using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and treated students who tested positive with artemether-lumefantrine. We determined P. falciparum infection by microscopy and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and hemoglobin concentrations over 6 weeks in all students. RESULTS: Prevalence of infection by RDT screening was 37% (9%-64% among schools). An additional 9% of students had infections detected by qPCR. Following the intervention, significant reductions in infections were detected by microscopy (adjusted relative reduction [aRR], 48.8%; P < .0001) and qPCR (aRR, 24.5%; P < .0001), and in anemia prevalence (aRR, 30.8%; P = .003). Intervention impact was reduced by infections not detected by RDT and new infections following treatment. CONCLUSIONS: School-based screening and treatment reduced P. falciparum infection and anemia. This approach could be enhanced by repeating screening, using more-sensitive screening tests, and providing longer-acting drugs. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04858087.

Impact of school-based malaria intervention on primary school teachers' time in Malawi: evidence from a time and motion study.

BACKGROUND: School-based health (SBH) programmes that are contingent on primary school teachers are options to increase access to malaria treatment among learners. However, perceptions that provision of healthcare by teachers may be detrimental to teaching activities can undermine efforts to scale up school-based malaria control. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of school-based malaria diagnosis and treatment using the Learner Treatment Kit (LTK) on teachers' time. METHODS: A time and motion study was conducted in 10 primary schools in rural Malawi. Teachers who had been trained to diagnose and treat uncomplicated malaria were continuously observed in real time during school sessions and the time they spent on all activities were recorded by independent observers before and after LTK implementation. A structured form, programmed digitally, was used for data collection. Paired sample t-tests were used to assess pre-post differences in average hours teachers spent on the following key activities: direct teaching; indirect teaching; administration; LTK and non-teaching tasks. Multivariable repeated measures mixed regression models were used to ascertain impact of LTK on average durations teachers spent on the key activities. RESULTS: Seventy-four teachers, trained to use LTK, were observed. Their mean age and years of teaching experience were 34.7 and 8.7, respectively. Overall, 739.8 h of teacher observations took place. The average time teachers spent in school before relative to after LTK was 5.8 vs. 4.8 h, p = 0.01. The cumulative percentage of time teachers spent on core teaching activities (teaching and administration) was approximately 76% and did not change substantially before and after LTK. Some 24.3% of teachers' time is spent on non-teaching activities. On average, teachers spent 2.9% of their time providing LTK services daily. Per day, each teacher spent less time on administrative (0.74 vs. 1.07 h, p = 0.02) and non-teaching activities (0.96 vs. 1.41 h, p = 0.01) during LTK compared with the period before LTK. CONCLUSION: School-based health (SBH) programmes are not detrimental to teaching activities. Teachers manage their time to ensure additional time required for SBH services is not at the expense of teaching duties. Programming and policy implications of tasking teachers with SBH does not have substantial opportunity costs. Teachers should continue delivering SBH programmes to promote learners' health.

Blood-feeding patterns of Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Malawi: implications for malaria transmission and effectiveness of LLIN interventions.

BACKGROUND: Access to human hosts by Anopheles mosquitoes is a key determinant of vectorial capacity for malaria, but it can be limited by use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). In Malawi, pyrethroid-treated LLINs with and without the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO) were distributed to control malaria. This study investigated the blood-feeding patterns of malaria vectors and whether LLINs containing pyrethroid and PBO led to a reduction of human blood feeding than those containing only pyrethroids. METHODS: Mosquitoes were sampled inside houses from May 2019 through April 2020 by aspiration, pyrethrum spray catch, and light trap methods in two sites. One site (Namanolo, Balaka district) had LLINs containing only pyrethroids whereas the other (Ntaja, Machinga district) had LLINs with both pyrethroids and PBO. Anopheles species, their blood-meal host, and infection with Plasmodium falciparum were determined using PCR methods. RESULTS: A total of 6585 female Anopheles were sampled in 203 houses. Of these, 633 (9.6%) were blood-fed mosquitoes comprising of 279 (44.1%) Anopheles arabiensis, 103 (16.3%) Anopheles gambiae 212 (33.5), Anopheles funestus, 2 (0.3%), Anopheles parensis and 37 (5.8%) were unidentified Anopheles spp. Blood meal hosts were successfully identified for 85.5% (n = 541) of the blood-fed mosquitoes, of which 436 (81.0%) were human blood meals, 28 (5.2%) were goats, 11 (2.0%) were dogs, 60 (11.1%) were mixed goat-human blood meals, 5 (0.9%) were dog-human, and 1 was a mixed dog-goat. Human blood index (fraction of blood meals that were humans) was significantly higher in Namanolo (0.96) than Ntaja (0.89). Even though human blood index was high, goats were over-selected than humans after accounting for relative abundance of both hosts. The number of infectious Anopheles bites per person-year was 44 in Namanolo and 22 in Ntaja. CONCLUSION: Although LLINs with PBO PBO may have reduced human blood feeding, access to humans was extremely high despite high LLIN ownership and usage rates in both sites. This finding could explain persistently high rates of malaria infections in Malawi. However, this study had one village for each net type, thus the observed differences may have been a result of other factors present in each village.

The choice of reference chart affects the strength of the association between malaria in pregnancy and small for gestational age: an individual participant data meta-analysis comparing the Intergrowth-21 with a Tanzanian birthweight chart.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of small for gestational age (SGA) may vary depending on the chosen weight-for-gestational-age reference chart. An individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted to assess the implications of using a local reference (STOPPAM) instead of a universal reference (Intergrowth-21) on the association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA. METHODS: Individual participant data of 6,236 newborns were pooled from seven conveniently identified studies conducted in Tanzania and Malawi from 2003-2018 with data on malaria in pregnancy, birthweight, and ultrasound estimated gestational age. Mixed-effects regression models were used to compare the association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA when using the STOPPAM and the Intergrowth-21 references, respectively. RESULTS: The 10th percentile for birthweights-for-gestational age was lower for STOPPAM than for Intergrowth-21, leading to a prevalence of SGASTOPPAM of 14.2% and SGAIG21 of 18.0%, p < 0.001. The association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA was stronger for STOPPAM (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.30 [1.09-1.56], p < 0.01) than for Intergrowth-21 (aOR 1.19 [1.00-1.40], p = 0.04), particularly among paucigravidae (SGASTOPPAM aOR 1.36 [1.09-1.71], p < 0.01 vs SGAIG21 aOR 1.21 [0.97-1.50], p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of SGA may be overestimated and the impact of malaria in pregnancy underestimated when using Intergrowth-21. Comparing local reference charts to global references when assessing and interpreting the impact of malaria in pregnancy may be appropriate.

A cluster randomized trial of delivery of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy at the community level in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Malaria in pregnancy doubles the risk of low birthweight; up to 11% of all neonatal deaths in sub-Saharan Africa are associated with malaria in pregnancy. To prevent these and other adverse health consequences, the World Health Organization recommends administering intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for all pregnant women at each antenatal care (ANC) visit, starting as early as possible in the second trimester. The target is for countries to administer a minimum of three doses (IPTp3+) to at least 85% of pregnant women. METHODS: A cluster randomized, controlled trial was conducted to assess the effect of delivery of IPTp by community health workers on the coverage of IPTp3 + and ANC visits in Malawi. Community delivery of IPTp was implemented within two districts in Malawi over a 21-month period, from November 2018 to July 2020. In control sites, IPTp was delivered at health facilities. Representative samples of women who delivered in the prior 12 months were surveyed at baseline (n = 370, December 2017) and endline (n = 687, August 2020). A difference in differences analysis was conducted to assess the change in coverage of IPTp and ANC over time, accounting for clustering at the health facility level. RESULTS: Overall IPTp coverage increased over the study period. At baseline, women received a mean of 2.3 IPTp doses (range 0-5 doses) across both arms, and at endline, women received a mean of 2.8 doses (range 0-9 doses). Despite overall increases, the change in IPTp3 + coverage was not significantly different between intervention and control groups (6.9%, 95% CI: -5.9%, 19.6%). ANC4 + coverage increased significantly in the intervention group compared with the control group, with a difference-in-differences of 25.3% points (95% CI: 1.3%, 49.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In order to reduce the burden of malaria in pregnancy, new strategies are needed to improve uptake of effective interventions such as IPTp. While community health workers' delivery of IPTp did not increase uptake in this study, they may be effective in other settings or circumstances. Further research can help identify the health systems characteristics that are conducive to community delivery of IPTp and the operational requirements for effective implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03376217. Registered December 6, 2017, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03376217 .

Comparison of statistical methods for the analysis of recurrent adverse events in the presence of non-proportional hazards and unobserved heterogeneity: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: In preventive drug trials such as intermittent preventive treatment for malaria prevention during pregnancy (IPTp), where there is repeated treatment administration, recurrence of adverse events (AEs) is expected. Challenges in modelling the risk of the AEs include accounting for time-to-AE and within-patient-correlation, beyond the conventional methods. The correlation comes from two sources; (a) individual patient unobserved heterogeneity (i.e. frailty) and (b) the dependence between AEs characterised by time-dependent treatment effects. Potential AE-dependence can be modelled via time-dependent treatment effects, event-specific baseline and event-specific random effect, while heterogeneity can be modelled via subject-specific random effect. Methods that can improve the estimation of both the unobserved heterogeneity and treatment effects can be useful in understanding the evolution of risk of AEs, especially in preventive trials where time-dependent treatment effect is expected. METHODS: Using both a simulation study and the Chloroquine for Malaria in Pregnancy (NCT01443130) trial data to demonstrate the application of the models, we investigated whether the lognormal shared frailty models with restricted cubic splines and non-proportional hazards (LSF-NPH) assumption can improve estimates for both frailty variance and treatment effect compared to the conventional inverse Gaussian shared frailty model with proportional hazard (ISF-PH), in the presence of time-dependent treatment effects and unobserved patient heterogeneity. We assessed the bias, precision gain and coverage probability of 95% confidence interval of the frailty variance estimates for the models under varying known unobserved heterogeneity, sample sizes and time-dependent effects. RESULTS: The ISF-PH model provided a better coverage probability of 95% confidence interval, less bias and less precise frailty variance estimates compared to the LSF-NPH models. The LSF-NPH models yielded unbiased hazard ratio estimates at the expense of imprecision and high mean square error compared to the ISF-PH model. CONCLUSION: The choice of the shared frailty model for the recurrent AEs analysis should be driven by the study objective. Using the LSF-NPH models is appropriate if unbiased hazard ratio estimation is of primary interest in the presence of time-dependent treatment effects. However, ISF-PH model is appropriate if unbiased frailty variance estimation is of primary interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT01443130.

Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 Mutations, 9 Countries in Africa, 2014-2018.

The spread of drug resistance to antimalarial treatments poses a serious public health risk globally. To combat this risk, molecular surveillance of drug resistance is imperative. We report the prevalence of mutations in the Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 propeller domain associated with partial artemisinin resistance, which we determined by using Sanger sequencing samples from patients enrolled in therapeutic efficacy studies from 9 sub-Saharan countries during 2014-2018. Of the 2,865 samples successfully sequenced before treatment (day of enrollment) and on the day of treatment failure, 29 (1.0%) samples contained 11 unique nonsynonymous mutations and 83 (2.9%) samples contained 27 unique synonymous mutations. Two samples from Kenya contained the S522C mutation, which has been associated with delayed parasite clearance; however, no samples contained validated or candidate artemisinin-resistance mutations.

An urban-to-rural continuum of malaria risk: new analytic approaches characterize patterns in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The urban-rural designation has been an important risk factor in infectious disease epidemiology. Many studies rely on a politically determined dichotomization of rural versus urban spaces, which fails to capture the complex mosaic of infrastructural, social and environmental factors driving risk. Such evaluation is especially important for Plasmodium transmission and malaria disease. To improve targeting of anti-malarial interventions, a continuous composite measure of urbanicity using spatially-referenced data was developed to evaluate household-level malaria risk from a house-to-house survey of children in Malawi. METHODS: Children from 7564 households from eight districts throughout Malawi were tested for presence of Plasmodium parasites through finger-prick blood sampling and slide microscopy. A survey questionnaire was administered and latitude and longitude coordinates were recorded for each household. Distances from households to features associated with high and low levels of development (health facilities, roads, rivers, lakes) and population density were used to produce a principal component analysis (PCA)-based composite measure for all centroid locations of a fine geo-spatial grid covering Malawi. Regression methods were used to test associations of the urbanicity measure against Plasmodium infection status and to predict parasitaemia risk for all locations in Malawi. RESULTS: Infection probability declined with increasing urbanicity. The new urbanicity metric was more predictive than either a governmentally defined rural/urban dichotomous variable or a population density variable. One reason for this was that 23% of cells within politically defined rural areas exhibited lower risk, more like those normally associated with "urban" locations. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to increasing predictive power, the new continuous urbanicity metric provided a clearer mechanistic understanding than the dichotomous urban/rural designations. Such designations often ignore urban-like, low-risk pockets within traditionally rural areas, as were found in Malawi, along with rural-like, potentially high-risk environments within urban areas. This method of characterizing urbanicity can be applied to other infectious disease processes in rapidly urbanizing contexts.

Joint modelling of multivariate longitudinal clinical laboratory safety outcomes, concomitant medication and clinical adverse events: application to artemisinin-based treatment during pregnancy clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: In drug trials, clinical adverse events (AEs), concomitant medication and laboratory safety outcomes are repeatedly collected to support drug safety evidence. Despite the potential correlation of these outcomes, they are typically analysed separately, potentially leading to misinformation and inefficient estimates due to partial assessment of safety data. Using joint modelling, we investigated whether clinical AEs vary by treatment and how laboratory outcomes (alanine amino-transferase, total bilirubin) and concomitant medication are associated with clinical AEs over time following artemisinin-based antimalarial therapy. METHODS: We used data from a trial of artemisinin-based treatments for malaria during pregnancy that randomized 870 women to receive artemether-lumefantrine (AL), amodiaquine-artesunate (ASAQ) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHAPQ). We fitted a joint model containing four sub-models from four outcomes: longitudinal sub-model for alanine aminotransferase, longitudinal sub-model for total bilirubin, Poisson sub-model for concomitant medication and Poisson sub-model for clinical AEs. Since the clinical AEs was our primary outcome, the longitudinal sub-models and concomitant medication sub-model were linked to the clinical AEs sub-model via current value and random effects association structures respectively. We fitted a conventional Poisson model for clinical AEs to assess if the effect of treatment on clinical AEs (i.e. incidence rate ratio (IRR)) estimates differed between the conventional Poisson and the joint models, where AL was reference treatment. RESULTS: Out of the 870 women, 564 (65%) experienced at least one AE. Using joint model, AEs were associated with the concomitant medication (log IRR 1.7487; 95% CI: 1.5471, 1.9503; p < 0.001) but not the total bilirubin (log IRR: -0.0288; 95% CI: - 0.5045, 0.4469; p = 0.906) and alanine aminotransferase (log IRR: 0.1153; 95% CI: - 0.0889, 0.3194; p = 0.269). The Poisson model underestimated the effects of treatment on AE incidence such that log IRR for ASAQ was 0.2118 (95% CI: 0.0082, 0.4154; p = 0.041) for joint model compared to 0.1838 (95% CI: 0.0574, 0.3102; p = 0.004) for Poisson model. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that although the AEs did not vary across the treatments, the joint model yielded efficient AE incidence estimates compared to the Poisson model. The joint model showed a positive relationship between the AEs and concomitant medication but not with laboratory outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00852423.

Levels of knowledge regarding malaria causes, symptoms, and prevention measures among Malawian women of reproductive age.

BACKGROUND: Malawi is a malaria-endemic country and approximately 6 million cases are reported annually. Improving knowledge of malaria causes and symptoms, and the overall perception towards malaria and its preventive measures is vital for malaria control. The current study investigated the levels of knowledge of the causes, symptoms and prevention of malaria among Malawian women. METHODS: Data from the 2017 wave of the Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey (MMIS) were analysed. In total, 3422 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) were sampled and analysed. The levels of women's knowledge about: (1) causes of malaria; (2) symptoms of malaria; and, (3) preventive measures were assessed. The tertiles of the composite score were used as the cut-offs to categorize the levels of knowledge as 'low', 'medium' and 'high'. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to assess the independent factors while taking into account the complex survey design. RESULTS: Approximately 50% of all respondents had high levels of knowledge of causes, symptoms and preventive measures. The high level of knowledge was 45% for rural women and 55% for urban dwellers. After adjusting for the a wide range of factors, women of age group 15-19 years adjusted odds ratio ((aOR): 2.58; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.69-3.92), women with no formal education (aOR: 3.73; 95% CI 2.20-6.33), women whose household had no television (aOR: 1.50; 95% CI 1.02-2.22), women who had not seen/heard malaria message (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI 1.20-1.95), women of Yao tribe (aOR: 1.95; 95% CI 1.10-3.46), and women from rural areas had low levels of knowledge about the causes of malaria, symptoms of malaria and preventive measures. Additionally, the results also showed that women aged 15-19 years (beta [ß] = - 0.73, standard error [SE] = 0.12); P < .0001, women with no formal education (ß = - 1.17, SE = 0.15); P < .0001, women whose household had no radio (ß = - 0.15, SE = 0.0816); P = 0.0715 and women who had not seen or heard malaria message (ß = - 0.41, SE = 0.07); P < .0001 were likely to have a lower knowledge score. CONCLUSIONS: The levels of malaria knowledge were reported to be unsatisfactory among adult women, underscoring the need to scale up efforts on malaria education. Beside insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) and prompt diagnosis, malaria can be best managed in Malawi by increasing knowledge of malaria causes, and symptoms especially for younger women, women with no formal education, women whose households have no media, women from Yao tribes, and rural dwellers.

Malaria knowledge and experiences with community health workers among recently pregnant women in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends three or more doses of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) to mitigate the negative effects of malaria in pregnancy (MIP). Many pregnant women in Malawi are not receiving the recommended number of doses. Community delivery of IPTp (cIPTp) is being piloted as a new approach to increase coverage. This survey assessed recently pregnant women's knowledge of MIP and their experiences with community health workers (CHWs) prior to implementing cIPTp. METHODS: Data were collected via a household survey in Ntcheu and Nkhata Bay Districts, Malawi, from women aged 16-49 years who had a pregnancy resulting in a live birth in the previous 12 months. Survey questions were primarily open response and utilized review of the woman's health passport whenever possible. Analyses accounted for selection weighting and clustering at the health facility level and explored heterogeneity between districts. RESULTS: A total of 370 women were interviewed. Women in both districts found their community health workers (CHWs) to be helpful (77.9%), but only 35.7% spoke with a CHW about antenatal care and 25.8% received assistance for malaria during their most recent pregnancy. A greater proportion of women in Nkhata Bay than Ntcheu reported receiving assistance with malaria from a CHW (42.7% vs 21.9%, p = 0.01); women in Nkhata Bay were more likely to cite IPTp-SP as a way to prevent MIP (41.0% vs 24.8%, p = 0.02) and were more likely to cite mosquito bites as the only way to spread malaria (70.6% vs 62.0% p = 0.03). Women in Nkhata Bay were more likely to receive 3 + doses of IPTp-SP (IPTp3) (59.2% vs 41.8%, p = 0.0002). Adequate knowledge was associated with increased odds of receiving IPTp3, although not statistically significantly so (adjusted odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval 0.97-2.32, p-value 0.066). CONCLUSIONS: Women reported positive experiences with CHWs, but there was not a focus on MIP. Women in Nkhata Bay were more likely to be assisted by a CHW, had better knowledge, and were more likely to receive IPTp3+ . Increasing CHW focus on the dangers of MIP and implementing cIPTp has the potential to increase IPTp coverage.

Systematic review of statistical methods for safety data in malaria chemoprevention in pregnancy trials.

BACKGROUND: Drug safety assessments in clinical trials present unique analytical challenges. Some of these include adjusting for individual follow-up time, repeated measurements of multiple outcomes and missing data among others. Furthermore, pre-specifying appropriate analysis becomes difficult as some safety endpoints are unexpected. Although existing guidelines such as CONSORT encourage thorough reporting of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials, they provide limited details for safety data analysis. The limited guidelines may influence suboptimal analysis by failing to account for some analysis challenges above. A typical example where such challenges exist are trials of anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention during pregnancy. Lack of proper standardized evaluation of the safety of antimalarial drugs has limited the ability to draw conclusions about safety. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to establish the current practice in statistical analysis for preventive antimalarial drug safety in pregnancy. METHODS: The search included five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Malaria in Pregnancy Library and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) to identify original English articles reporting Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention in pregnancy published from January 2010 to July 2019. RESULTS: Eighteen trials were included in this review that collected multiple longitudinal safety outcomes including AEs. Statistical analysis and reporting of the safety outcomes in all the trials used descriptive statistics; proportions/counts (n = 18, 100%) and mean/median (n = 2, 11.1%). Results presentation included tabular (n = 16, 88.9%) and text description (n = 2, 11.1%). Univariate inferential methods were reported in most trials (n = 16, 88.9%); including Chi square/Fisher's exact test (n = 12, 66.7%), t test (n = 2, 11.1%) and Mann-Whitney/Wilcoxon test (n = 1, 5.6%). Multivariable methods, including Poisson and negative binomial were reported in few trials (n = 3, 16.7%). Assessment of a potential link between missing efficacy data and safety outcomes was not reported in any of the trials that reported efficacy missing data (n = 7, 38.9%). CONCLUSION: The review demonstrated that statistical analysis of safety data in anti-malarial drugs for malarial chemoprevention in pregnancy RCTs is inadequate. The analyses insufficiently account for multiple safety outcomes potential dependence, follow-up time and informative missing data which can compromise anti-malarial drug safety evidence development, based on the available data.