Risk of breakthrough infection and hospitalisation after COVID-19 primary vaccination by HIV status in four Italian regions during 2021.

BACKGROUND: As of 2024, vaccination remains the main mitigation measure against COVID-19, but there are contradictory results on whether people living with HIV (PLWH) are less protected by vaccines than people living without HIV (PLWoH). In this study we compared the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation following full vaccination in PLWH and PLWoH. METHODS: We linked data from the vaccination registry, the COVID-19 surveillance system and from healthcare/pharmacological registries in four Italian regions. We identified PLWH fully vaccinated (14 days post completion of the primary cycle) and matched them at a ratio of 1:4 with PLWoH by week of vaccine administration, age, sex, region of residence and comorbidities. Follow-up started on January 24, 2021, and lasted for a maximum of 234 days. We used the Kaplan-Meier estimator to calculate the cumulative incidence of infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation in both groups, and we compared risks using risk differences and ratios taking PLWoH as the reference group. RESULTS: We matched 42,771 PLWH with 171,084 PLWoH. The overall risk of breakthrough infection was similar in both groups with a rate ratio (RR) of 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI):0.80-1.53). The absolute difference between groups at the end of the study period was 8.28 events per 10,000 person-days in the PLWH group (95%CI:-18.43-40.29). There was a non-significant increase the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation among PLWH (RR:1.90; 95%CI:0.93-3.32) which corresponds to 6.73 hospitalisations per 10,000 individuals (95%CI: -0.57 to 14.87 per 10,000). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest PLWH were not at increased risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 hospitalisation following a primary cycle of mRNA vaccination.

Development of a prediction model of conversion to Alzheimer's disease in people with mild cognitive impairment: the statistical analysis plan of the INTERCEPTOR project.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, significant efforts have been directed towards the research and development of disease-modifying therapies for dementia. These drugs focus on prodromal (mild cognitive impairment, MCI) and/or early stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Literature evidence indicates that a considerable proportion of individuals with MCI do not progress to dementia. Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing dementia is essential for appropriate management, including the prescription of new disease-modifying therapies expected to become available in clinical practice in the near future. METHODS: The ongoing INTERCEPTOR study is a multicenter, longitudinal, interventional, non-therapeutic cohort study designed to enroll 500 individuals with MCI aged 50-85 years. The primary aim is to identify a biomarker or a set of biomarkers able to accurately predict the conversion from MCI to AD dementia within 3 years of follow-up. The biomarkers investigated in this study are neuropsychological tests (mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and delayed free recall), brain glucose metabolism ([18F]FDG-PET), MRI volumetry of the hippocampus, EEG brain connectivity, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers (p-tau, t-tau, Aß1-42, Aß1-42/1-40 ratio, Aß1-42/p-Tau ratio) and APOE genotype. The baseline visit includes a full cognitive and neuropsychological evaluation, as well as the collection of clinical and socio-demographic information. Prognostic models will be developed using Cox regression, incorporating individual characteristics and biomarkers through stepwise selection. Model performance will be evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration and subjected to internal validation using the bootstrapping procedure. The final model will be visually represented as a nomogram. DISCUSSION: This paper contains a detailed description of the statistical analysis plan to ensure the reproducibility and transparency of the analysis. The prognostic model developed in this study aims to identify the population with MCI at higher risk of developing AD dementia, potentially eligible for drug prescriptions. The nomogram could provide a valuable tool for clinicians for risk stratification and early treatment decisions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03834402. Registered on February 8, 2019.

Acute Appendicitis After COVID-19 Vaccines in Italy: A Self-Controlled Case Series Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Cases of appendicitis were identified in the pivotal randomized clinical trial on BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and reported from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine pharmacovigilance systems. Three cohort studies and two self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies evaluating the association between mRNA vaccines and appendicitis reported discordant results. To address this uncertainty, the present study examines in a large population, with a SCCS design, the association between mRNA (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) and, for the first time, viral vector (ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2-S) COVID-19 vaccines and acute appendicitis. METHODS: The SCCS study design was used to evaluate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and subsequent onset of acute appendicitis. The study was based on record linkage of health archives through TheShinISS application, a statistical tool that locally processes data from regional health care databases according to ad hoc, study-tailored and common data model. The study population included all vaccinated subjects ≥ 12 years old between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. The acute appendicitis was identified through discharge diagnoses of hospital admissions or emergency department visits. Incident cases were defined as those who experienced a first event of acute appendicitis in the study period, excluding subjects with a diagnosis of appendicitis in the previous 5 years. Exposure was defined as the first or second dose of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273 and ChAdOx1-S and the single dose of Ad26.COV2-S. The risk interval was defined as 42 days from the first or second vaccination dose and divided into pre-specified risk subperiods; the reference period was the observation time outside the risk interval. Relative incidences (RI) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated with the SCCS method 'modified for event-dependent exposures', through unbiased estimating equations. The seasonal component was considered as a time-dependent covariate. RESULTS: In the 42-day risk interval 1285 incident cases of acute appendicitis occurred: 727 cases after the first dose and 558 cases after the second dose. In the main analysis, no increased risks of acute appendicitis were observed in subjects vaccinated with BNT162b, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2-S. The subgroup analyses by sex showed an increased risk in the 14-27 day risk interval, in males after the first dose of mRNA-1273 (RI of 1.71; 95% CI 1.08-2.70, p = 0.02) and in females after the single dose of Ad26.COV2-S (RI of 4.40; 95% CI 1.29-15.01, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of association of BNT162b, ChAdOx1-S, mRNA-1273 and Ad26.COV2-S with acute appendicitis in the general population. The results of the subgroup analyses by sex needs to be considered with caution. The multiplicity issue cannot be excluded being these hypotheses two of several hypotheses tested. In addition, relevant literature on the biological mechanism of the disease and evidence of similar effects with other vaccines or with the same vaccines are still lacking to provide strong support for a conclusion that there is an harmful effect in males and females with mRNA-1273 and Ad26.COV2-S.