Towards more accurate classification of risk of arrest among offenders on community supervision: An application of machine learning versus logistic regression.

BACKGROUND: Although there is general consensus about the behavioural, clinical and sociodemographic variables that are risk factors for reoffending, optimal statistical modelling of these variables is less clear. Machine learning techniques offer an approach that may provide greater accuracy than traditional methods. AIM: To compare the performance of advanced machine learning techniques (classification trees and random forests) to logistic regression in classifying correlates of rearrest among adult probationers and parolees in the United States. METHOD: Data were from the subgroup of people on probation or parole who had taken part in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for the years 2015-2019. We compared the performance of logistic regression, classification trees and random forests, using receiver operating characteristic curves, to examine the correlates of arrest within the past 12 months. RESULTS: We found that machine learning techniques, specifically random forests, possessed significantly greater accuracy than logistic regression in classifying correlates of arrest. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest the potential for enhanced risk classification. The next step would be to develop applications for criminal justice and clinical practice to inform better support and management strategies for former offenders in the community.

Correlates of Homelessness Among Adults with Personality Disorder.

Although personality disorders (PDs) are more common among persons experiencing homelessness than the general population, few studies have investigated the risk of experiencing homelessness among persons with PDs. This study seeks to identify the demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral health correlates of past-year homelessness among persons with antisocial, borderline, and schizotypal PDs. Nationally representative data of the civilian, noninstitutionalized population of the United States was used to identify correlates of homelessness. Descriptive statistics and bivariate associations between variables and homeless status were summarized prior to conducting several multivariate logistic regression models to identify correlates of homelessness. Main findings revealed positive associations between poverty, relationship dysfunction, and lifetime suicide attempt with homelessness. In the antisocial PD (ASPD) and borderline PD (BPD) models, comorbid BPD and ASPD, respectively, were associated with higher odds of past-year homelessness. Findings underscore the importance of poverty, interpersonal difficulties, and behavioral health comorbidities on homelessness among persons with ASPD, BPD, and schizotypal PD. Strategies to promote economic security, stable relationships, and interpersonal functioning may buffer against the effects of economic volatility and other systemic factors that could contribute to homelessness and persons with PD.

Financial Outcomes of Interventions Designed to Improve Retirement Savings: A Systematic Review.

This systematic review focuses on examining the effects of interventions that facilitate retirement savings through a financial capability approach, which combines financial education and financial access. Systematic review procedures were used to search for published and unpublished experimental studies in multiple databases and gray literature sources that met eligibility criteria. Four research projects published through May 2020 were eligible for the review. Results suggest that, thus far, there is no clear rigorous evidence that the interventions that use a financial capability approach to promote retirement savings improve individual financial behaviors or financial outcomes. Policy and practice implications are discussed.

The acceptability of self-sampled screening for HPV DNA: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether or not self-sampled cervical screening for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is acceptable and if women prefer self-sampling to clinician-based sampling. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Thirty-seven primary studies obtained through a comprehensive search of six electronic bibliographic databases from 1986 to 2014 and other sources. Search keywords included HPV, screening, DNA testing, vaginal testing, self-collected specimen, self-collected sample, self-sampling, self-screening, preferences and acceptability. REVIEW METHODS: Studies eligible for analysis included those that had participants perform self-sampling, evaluated participant acceptance of or preference for self-sampled vaginal HPV DNA and reported data to calculate an effect size. There were no exclusion criteria for publication status or geographical location. Meta-analytic methods were used to quantitatively synthesise effect sizes across studies. RESULTS: The 37 studies included 18 516 female participants from 24 countries across five continents. Overall, there was a high level of acceptability of self-sampling among the participants. Participants reported preference for self-sampling over clinician sampling due to attractive characteristics such as ease and privacy. CONCLUSIONS: The overall acceptability of self-sampled cervical screening, coupled with economic and effective care, provides opportunities for expanding screening services. Importantly, this can provide a creative screening alternative for women who do not participate in traditional cytological screening, and may ultimately reduce health disparities and prevent cervical disease.

Truancy in the United States: Examining Temporal Trends and Correlates by Race, Age, and Gender.

BACKGROUND: Truancy has long been regarded a common problem in urgent need of effective intervention. Knowledge about factors associated with truancy can guide the development and implementation of interventions. METHOD: This paper examined trends in truancy rates between 2002-2014 and correlates of truancy across racial/ethnic groups. Variables of interest included sociodemographic factors (e.g., age, gender, socio-economic background), behavioral factors (e.g., substance use, violence), and psychosocial factors (e.g., academic engagement, grades, parental control). Using data from a large sample of adolescents (n=209,393; 12-17 years) we estimated truancy prevalence rates and examined trends and correlates via regression analyses. RESULTS: Truancy rates remained constant between 2002 (10.8%) and 2014 (11.1%). Rates were highest among older youth, females, and Hispanic youth. For all racial/ethnic groups, truancy was significantly correlated with alcohol and marijuana use, fighting, the propensity to take risks, and lower academic engagement and school grades. Other factors were differentially associated with racial/ethnic groups. This divergence in risk patterns for different racial/ethnic groups points to some heterogeneity amongst truant youth. DISCUSSION: Despite truancy reduction efforts, truancy rates have remained stable. Efforts to prevent truancy and to intervene with truant youth may need to target risk factors more prevalent in specific racial/ethnic groups.

Prevalence and correlates of psychiatric disorders among former juvenile detainees in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Juvenile offenders face increased liability for psychiatric disorders and greater psychopathology, but little is known about the psychiatric status of former juvenile delinquents as adults. METHOD: Drawing on data from Wave 1 and Wave 2 of the NESARC, logistic regression models examine correlates of psychiatric disorders in a large nationally representative sample of former juvenile detainees in adulthood (n=1177) compared to adults who did not have a history of juvenile offending (n=33,193). Further, we explored the psychosocial correlates associated with the increased likelihood of psychiatric disorders among former juvenile detainees. RESULTS: Nearly half of former juvenile detainees met criteria for one or more psychiatric disorders in the past twelve months and approximately two-thirds meet criteria for any lifetime personality disorder. Compared to the general population, former juvenile detainees not only denote greater psychiatric comorbidity across a range of affective, personality, and substance use disorders but are also more likely to report childhood adversity. CONCLUSIONS: Former juvenile detainees experience significantly greater and more varied psychiatric problems across adulthood.

High school dropouts in emerging adulthood: substance use, mental health problems, and crime.

This study examined the distribution of substance use, mental health, and criminal behavior among dropouts derived from a nationally representative sample of 18-25 year old (N = 19,312) emerging adults in the United States. Using public-use data from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, this study employed multiple logistic regression with adjustments for complex survey sampling and compared high school dropouts with graduates with respect to substance use, mental health, and criminal behavior. After controlling for the effects of age, gender, race/ethnicity, family income, receipt of government assistance, employment status, and metropolitan population density, dropouts were more likely to meet criteria for nicotine dependence and report daily cigarette use, and more likely to report having attempted suicide in the previous year, been arrested for larceny, assault, drug possession or drug sales relative to their high school graduate counterparts. The findings of this study provide important insights and an initial epidemiologic portrait of mental health, substance use, and criminal behaviors of dropouts during emerging adulthood.

Effects of after-school programs with at-risk youth on attendance and externalizing behaviors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The popularity, demand, and increased federal and private funding for after-school programs have resulted in a marked increase in after-school programs over the past two decades. After-school programs are used to prevent adverse outcomes, decrease risks, or improve functioning with at-risk youth in several areas, including academic achievement, crime and behavioral problems, socio-emotional functioning, and school engagement and attendance; however, the evidence of effects of after-school programs remains equivocal. This systematic review and meta-analysis, following Campbell Collaboration guidelines, examined the effects of after-school programs on externalizing behaviors and school attendance with at-risk students. A systematic search for published and unpublished literature resulted in the inclusion of 24 studies. A total of 64 effect sizes (16 for attendance outcomes; 49 for externalizing behavior outcomes) extracted from 31 reports were included in the meta-analysis using robust variance estimation to handle dependencies among effect sizes. Mean effects were small and non-significant for attendance and externalizing behaviors. A moderate to large amount of heterogeneity was present; however, no moderator variable tested explained the variance between studies. Significant methodological shortcomings were identified across the corpus of studies included in this review. Implications for practice, policy and research are discussed.

The immigrant paradox: immigrants are less antisocial than native-born Americans.

PURPOSE: Although recent research on crime and violence among immigrants suggests a paradox--where immigrants are more socially disadvantaged yet less likely to commit crime--previous research is limited by issues of generalizability and assessment of the full depth of antisocial behavior. METHODS: We surmount these limitations using data from waves I and II of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and compare immigrants (N = 7,320) from Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America to native-born Americans (N = 34,622) with respect to violent and nonviolent forms of antisocial behavior. RESULTS: After controlling for an extensive array of confounds, results indicate that immigrants are significantly less antisocial despite being more likely to have lower levels of income, less education, and reside in urban areas. These findings hold for immigrants from major regions of the world including Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms and extends prior research on crime and antisocial behavior, but suggests that it is premature however to think of immigrants as a policy intervention for treating high crime areas.

Alcohol use among Hispanic early adolescents in the United States: an examination of behavioral risk and protective profiles.

Few studies have examined the behavioral and protective correlates of alcohol use among young Hispanics. Using a national sample (N = 7,606), logistic regression and latent profile analysis (LPA) are employed to examine the relationships between alcohol use, psychosocial factors, and externalizing behavior among Hispanics during early adolescence. Early drinkers are more likely to report truancy, fighting, smoking, and drug use. LPA results revealed a three class solution. Classes identified included: psychosocial risk (41.11%), moderate protection (39.44%), and highly religious (19.44%). Alcohol use is clearly associated with externalizing behavior; however, an important degree of psychosocial and behavioral heterogeneity nevertheless exists.

Caution or warning? A validity study of the MAYSI-2 with juvenile offenders.

Given the high prevalence of mental health and substance use disorders in the juvenile justice system and the emphasis on efficient screening and referrals, the current study sought to further validate the use of the Massachusetts Youth Screening Instrument version 2 (MAYSI-2). Using data from institutionalized delinquents (N=836) committed to the California Youth Authority, finite mixture modeling was employed to identify distinct latent classes based on MAYSI-2 scale scores. Identified classes were then compared across a range of covariates, including prior offenses, official records of misconduct, and multiple measures of mental health and psychological well-being. Findings revealed a three-class, gradient-based structure: low distress (n=380), moderate distress (n=327), and high distress (n=129). Overall, the MAYSI-2 identified juvenile offenders with mental health and substance use issues, but it did not differentiate youths with respect to offending patterns.

Prevalence and correlates of truancy in the US: results from a national sample.

Truancy has been a persistent problem in the United States for more than 100 years. Although truancy is commonly reported as a risk factor for substance use, delinquency, dropout, and a host of other negative outcomes for youth, there has been surprisingly little empirical investigation into understanding the causes and correlates of truancy using large, nationally representative samples. Using the adolescent sample (N = 17,482) of the 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), this study presents the prevalence of truancy and examines individual, school engagement, parental, and behavioral correlates of truancy. Overall, 11% of adolescents between the ages of 12-17 reported skipping school in the past 30 days. Results from multinomial logistic regression models indicate skipping school was robustly associated with an increased probability of reporting externalizing behaviors, less parental involvement, and engagement and lower grades in school. Implications for theory, prevention, and policy are discussed.

PROTOCOL: Medical-financial partnerships for improving financial and health outcomes for lower-income Americans: A systematic review.

This is the protocol for a Campbell systematic review. The primary objectives of this review is to answer the following research questions using formal research studies: What is the extent and quality of MFP intervention research? What are the effects on financial outcomes of financial services embedded within healthcare settings? What are the effects on health-related outcomes of financial services embedded within healthcare settings?

Who are truant youth? Examining distinctive profiles of truant youth using latent profile analysis.

The present study explored the heterogeneity of truant youth to provide a more nuanced examination of the nature of adolescent truancy and examine distinct profiles of truant youth as they relate to externalizing behaviors. Latent profile analysis was employed to examine the heterogeneity of truant youth by using a nationally representative sample of 1,646 truant adolescents (49.8 % female) from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Five key indicator variables were utilized to identify latent classes: school engagement, participation in school-based activities, grades, parental academic involvement, and number of school days skipped. Additionally, multinomial regression was employed to examine the relationship between latent truant youth classes and externalizing behaviors. Four classes of truant youth were identified: achievers (28.55 %), moderate students (24.30 %), academically disengaged (40.89 %), and chronic skippers (6.26 %). Additionally, group membership was found to be associated differentially with marijuana use, fighting, theft and selling drugs. Results from the present study suggest that truant youth are not a homogenous group, but rather present with different risk profiles as they relate to key indicators, demographic characteristics and externalizing behaviors. Implications for practice, policy and future research are discussed.

Self-management interventions for reducing challenging behaviors among school-age students: A systematic review.

Background: Challenging classroom behaviors can interfere with student social and academic functioning and may be harmful to everyone in schools. Self-management interventions within schools can address these concerns by helping students develop necessary social, emotional, and behavioral skills. Thus, the current systematic review synthesized and analyzed school-based self-management interventions used to address challenging classroom behaviors. Objectives: The current study aimed to inform practice and policy by (a) evaluating the effectiveness of self-management interventions at improving classroom behaviors and academic outcomes and (b) examining the state of research for self-management interventions based on existing literature. Search Methods: Comprehensive search procedures included electronically searching online databases (e.g., EBSCO Academic Search Premier, MEDLINE, ERIC, PsycINFO), hand-searching 19 relevant journals (e.g., School Mental Health, Journal of School Psychology), reference-list searching 21 relevant reviews, and searching gray literature (e.g., contacting authors, searching online dissertation/theses databases and national government clearinghouses/websites). Searches were completed through December of 2020. Selection Criteria: Included studies employed either a multiple group-design (i.e., experimental or quasi-experimental) or single-case experimental research design and met the following criteria: (a) utilized a self-management intervention, (b) conducted in a school setting, (c) included school-aged students, and (d) assessed classroom behaviors. Data Collection and Analysis: Standard data collection procedures expected by the Campbell Collaboration were used in the current study. Analyses for single-case design studies incorporated three-level hierarchical models to synthesize main effects, and meta-regression for moderation. Further, robust variance estimation was applied to both single-case design and group-design studies to account for dependency issues. Main Results: Our final single-case design sample included 75 studies, 236 participants, and 456 effects (i.e., 351 behavioral outcomes and 105 academic outcomes). Our final group-design sample included 4 studies, 422 participants, and 11 total behavioral effects. Most studies occurred in the United States, in urban communities, in public schools, and in elementary settings. Single-case design results indicated that self-management interventions significantly and positively impacted both student classroom behaviors (LRRi = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.59, 0.78]) and academic outcomes (LRRi = 0.58, 95% CI [0.41, 0.76]). Single-case results were found to be moderated by student race and special education status, whereas intervention effects were more pronounced for African American students (F = 5.56, p = 0.02) and students receiving special education services (F = 6.87, p = 0.01). Single-case results were not found to be moderated by intervention characteristics (i.e., intervention duration, fidelity assessment, fidelity method, or training). Despite positive findings for single-case design studies, risk of bias assessment indicated methodological shortcomings that should be considered when interpreting findings. A significant main effect of self-management interventions for improving classroom behaviors was also revealed for group-design studies (g = 0.63, 95% CI [0.08, 1.17]). However, these results should be interpreted with caution given the small number of included group-design studies. Implications for Policy Practice and Research: The current study, conducted using comprehensive search/screening procedures and advanced meta-analytic techniques, adds to the large amount of evidence indicating that self-management interventions can be successfully used to address student behaviors and academic outcomes. In particular, the use specific self-management elements (i.e., self-determining a performance goal, self-observing and recording progress, reflecting on a target behavior, and administering primary reinforcers) should be considered within current interventions as well as in the development of future interventions. Future research should aim to assess the implementation and effects of self-management at the group or classroom-level within randomized controlled trials.

Interventions designed to improve financial capability: A systematic review.

Background: There is growing recognition that people need stronger financial capability to avoid and recover from financial difficulties and poverty. Researchers are testing financial capability interventions with adults, children, immigrant populations and other groups, but little is known about the effectiveness of financial capability interventions on financial behaviour and financial outcomes. Objectives: The purpose of this review is to inform practice and policy by examining and synthesizing evidence of the effects of interventions designed to improve financial capability. Financial capability interventions combine financial education and financial products and/or services. The research questions are: (a) What are the effects of interventions designed to improve financial capability on financial behaviour and financial outcomes? and (b) Does study(design), intervention (dosage, duration, type) or sample (age) characteristics relate to the magnitude of effect size? Methods: We conducted two identical rounds of electronic searches for two different time periods. In Round 1 searched for studies through May, 2017 and Round 2 searched from May, 2017 through May, 2020. For both rounds, we identified and retrieved both published and unpublished studies, including conference proceedings, through a comprehensive search that included multiple electronic databases, grey literature sources, organizational websites, government websites and reference lists of reviews and relevant studies. We also conducted forward citation searching using Google Scholar to search for studies citing the included studies. We also conducted a search on Google using key terms. We hand searched the table of contents of selected journals to identify potentially eligible reports not properly indexed. Finally, experts who were study or sub-study authors of prior studies were contacted in an attempt to obtain unpublished studies, studies in process and published studies missed in the database search. Selection Criteria: To be eligible for this review, the intervention must have included a financial education component and a financial product or service. Studies must have also been conducted in any of the 35-member countries of the OECD, and included a financial behaviour or financial outcome. To meet the criteria for delivering financial education, interventions must have delivered information about: (1) a variety of general financial concepts and behaviours, or advice about financial behaviours); (2) a specific financial topic; (3) a specific product; and/or (4) a specific service. To meet the criteria for access to a financial product or service, interventions must have facilitated access to one or more of the following: (1) a child development account; (2) a retirement account through an employer; (3) a 'second chance' checking account; (4) a matched savings account; (5) a financial service, such as financial counselling or coaching; (6) a bank account; (7) an investment vehicle; or (8) a home mortgage loan product. Data Collection and Analysis: Electronic searches of bibliographic databases and searches of other sources identified a total of 35,484 hits. Titles and abstracts were screened for relevance and 35,071 were excluded as duplicates or deemed inappropriate. The full text of the remaining 416 potential studies was reviewed and screened for eligibility by two independent coders. We excluded 353 reports that were deemed ineligible and included 63 reports that met inclusion criteria. Of the 63, 15 reports were deemed duplicates or summary reports. Of the remaining 48 reports, 24 were unique studies (using unique samples) that were included in this review. Six of those 24 studies were large longitudinal studies that presented unique analyses (using different time points, subsamples, and/or outcomes). Thus, we extracted data from 48 reports, reporting data and analyses from 24 unique studies. At least two review authors who were not study authors independently assessed risk of bias in all included studies using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool. Results: The review summarizes evidence from 63 reports from 24 unique studies, which included 17 randomized controlled trials and 7 quasi-experimental designs. In addition, 17 duplicate or summary reports were also located. This review identified several different types of previously evaluated financial capability interventions. Unfortunately, few interventions that were evaluated by more than one study measured the same or similar outcomes, thus there were not a sufficient number of studies of any of the included intervention types that could be pooled to conduct a meta-analysis. Therefore, evidence is sparse about whether participants' financial behaviours and/or financial outcomes are improved. While the majority of the studies used random assignment (72%), many of the studies had some important methodological weakness. Authors' Conclusions: There is a lack of strong evidence about the effectiveness of financial capability intervention. Better evidence is needed about the effectiveness of financial capability interventions to guide practitioners.

Intergenerational Trauma among Families in El Salvador: an Exploratory Study.

Adverse childhood events have been shown to impact individuals through adulthood, particularly the impact on relationships. This study aimed to examine intergenerational trauma exposure among a sample of parents living in a semi-urban Salvadoran community and the relationship between child trauma exposure with maternal perceived discrimination, internal strengths and external support. Survey data was collected from 49 mothers residing in El Salvador. Bivariate analyses and multivariate linear regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between children's exposure to adverse childhood events and parents' exposure to adverse childhood events, while controlling for discrimination. The results of the regression analysis indicate that the maternal number of adverse childhood events and experience of discrimination as an adult explained 52.9% of the variance (R 2 = 0.59, F(6, 43) = 10.18, p < .0001). The number of adverse childhood events was significantly predicted by maternal number of adverse events (B = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.17-0.48, p < .0001) and experience of discrimination as adults (B = 5.79, 95% CI = 3.51-8.07, p < .0001). Results suggest that parent exposure to adverse childhood events and parent experience with discrimination are related to the exposure to adverse childhood events of their children. Further research in this area is warranted to better understand the experiences of parents who have been exposed to childhood trauma and the day-to-day parenting challenges. Greater understanding of the impact of childhood trauma also encourages service providers to explore intergenerational interventions.

Helping Survivors of Human Trafficking: A Systematic Review of Exit and Postexit Interventions.

BACKGROUND: Human trafficking is a global problem and results in deleterious psychological, social, and physical effects on the lives of those who are trafficked; however, it is not clear how to best intervene with survivors. The purpose of this review was to synthesize the evidence of exit and postexit intervention programs for survivors of human trafficking to inform practice and research. METHOD: Systematic review methods were used to search, select, and extract data from published and unpublished experimental, quasi-experimental, and preexperimental studies that assessed the effects of any exit or postexit interventions for victims of human trafficking. The authors searched eight databases, reviewed bibliographies, and conducted forward citation searches from relevant reports and prior reviews to find studies authored between 2005 and 2015. RESULTS: The search yielded six eligible studies that included 155 female and 6 male survivors from four countries. Interventions were diverse, with three using a trauma-informed approach. Authors measured a myriad of outcomes, including mental health, social network, community reintegration, and employment; however, the quality of most studies was poor. DISCUSSION: Evidence of effects of exit and postexit interventions is sparse, and much of the research is poorly designed and executed; however, the needs of trafficking survivors are complex and effective interventions are desperately needed. Implications for practice and research are discussed.

The Effectiveness of Psychosocial Interventions Delivered by Teachers in Schools: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The growing mental health needs of students within schools have resulted in teachers increasing their involvement in the delivery of school-based, psychosocial interventions. Current research reports mixed findings concerning the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions delivered by teachers for mental health outcomes. This article presents a systematic review and meta-analysis that examined the effectiveness of school-based psychosocial interventions delivered by teachers on internalizing and externalizing outcomes and the moderating factors that influence treatment effects on these outcomes. Nine electronic databases, major journals, and gray literature (e.g., websites, conference abstract) were searched and field experts were contacted to locate additional studies. Twenty-four studies that met the study inclusion criteria were coded into internalizing or externalizing outcomes and further analyzed using robust variance estimation in meta-regression. Both publication and risk of bias of studies were further assessed. The results showed statistically significant reductions in students' internalizing outcomes (d = .133, 95% CI [.002, .263]) and no statistical significant effect for externalizing outcomes (d = .15, 95% CI [-.037, .066]). Moderator analysis with meta-regression revealed that gender (%male, b = -.017, p < .05), race (% Caucasian, b = .002, p < .05), and the tier of intervention (b = .299, p = .06) affected intervention effectiveness. This study builds on existing literature that shows that teacher-delivered Tier 1 interventions are effective interventions but also adds to this literature by showing that interventions are more effective with internalizing outcomes than on the externalizing outcomes. Moderator analysis also revealed treatments were more effective with female students for internalizing outcomes and more effective with Caucasian students for externalizing outcomes.