Predicting the causative pathogen among children with pneumonia using a causal Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death among young children worldwide, and the diagnostic challenge of differentiating bacterial from non-bacterial pneumonia is the main driver of antibiotic use for treating pneumonia in children. Causal Bayesian networks (BNs) serve as powerful tools for this problem as they provide clear maps of probabilistic relationships between variables and produce results in an explainable way by incorporating both domain expert knowledge and numerical data. METHODS: We used domain expert knowledge and data in combination and iteratively, to construct, parameterise and validate a causal BN to predict causative pathogens for childhood pneumonia. Expert knowledge elicitation occurred through a series of group workshops, surveys and one-on-one meetings involving 6-8 experts from diverse domain areas. The model performance was evaluated based on both quantitative metrics and qualitative expert validation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate how the target output is influenced by varying key assumptions of a particularly high degree of uncertainty around data or domain expert knowledge. RESULTS: Designed to apply to a cohort of children with X-ray confirmed pneumonia who presented to a tertiary paediatric hospital in Australia, the resulting BN offers explainable and quantitative predictions on a range of variables of interest, including the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia, detection of respiratory pathogens in the nasopharynx, and the clinical phenotype of a pneumonia episode. Satisfactory numeric performance has been achieved including an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8 in predicting clinically-confirmed bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 88% and specificity 66% given certain input scenarios (i.e., information that is available and entered into the model) and trade-off preferences (i.e., relative weightings of the consequences of false positive versus false negative predictions). We specifically highlight that a desirable model output threshold for practical use is very dependent upon different input scenarios and trade-off preferences. Three commonly encountered scenarios were presented to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the BN outputs in various clinical pictures. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first causal model developed to help determine the causative pathogen for paediatric pneumonia. We have shown how the method works and how it would help decision making on the use of antibiotics, providing insight into how computational model predictions may be translated to actionable decisions in practice. We discussed key next steps including external validation, adaptation and implementation. Our model framework and the methodological approach can be adapted beyond our context to broad respiratory infections and geographical and healthcare settings.

Infectious complications and optimising infection prevention for children with cochlear implants.

AIM: To describe the clinical epidemiology of children receiving cochlear implants, as well as the management and outcomes of cochlear implant infections and adherence to infection prevention measures. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted in children ≤18 years who received cochlear implants in Western Australia's tertiary paediatric hospital. Information was obtained from medical and laboratory records regarding demographics, indication for implant, implant infection and preoperative Staphylococcus aureus screening/decolonisation. Immunisation history was examined using the Australian Immunisation Register. RESULTS: Overall, 118 children received cochlear implants, with 158 devices inserted (599 cochlear implant insertion-years). An implant infection rate of 3.8% (6/158) was identified during the study period (four pneumococcal and two community-acquired methicillin resistant S. aureus infections). All required surgical management, with an overall median duration of antibiotic therapy of 37 days (interquartile range (IQR) 29-48) and median length of stay of 8 days (IQR 8-9.5). All devices were retained and there were no relapses or deaths. Half of the children who developed cochlear implant infections (50%, 3/6) were up-to-date with additional pneumococcal vaccinations and no children (0%, 0/118) received S. aureus screening/decolonisation before implant insertion. CONCLUSIONS: Favourable outcomes were achieved with cochlear implant retention; however, the treatment was burdensome for families. We demonstrate significant scope to improve adherence to existing infection prevention strategies and provide direction for optimising preventative measures in the future. These include ensuring parental education, additional pneumococcal vaccinations and S. aureus decolonisation which are delivered as an infection prevention bundle to the growing population of infants receiving cochlear implants.

International Survey to Establish Prioritized Outcomes for Trials in People With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

OBJECTIVES: There are over 4,000 trials conducted in people with coronavirus disease 2019. However, the variability of outcomes and the omission of patient-centered outcomes may diminish the impact of these trials on decision-making. The aim of this study was to generate a consensus-based, prioritized list of outcomes for coronavirus disease 2019 trials. DESIGN: In an online survey conducted in English, Chinese, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish languages, adults with coronavirus disease 2019, their family members, health professionals, and the general public rated the importance of outcomes using a 9-point Likert scale (7-9, critical importance) and completed a Best-Worst Scale to estimate relative importance. Participant comments were analyzed thematically. SETTING: International. SUBJECTS: Adults 18 years old and over with confirmed or suspected coronavirus disease 2019, their family members, members of the general public, and health professionals (including clinicians, policy makers, regulators, funders, and researchers). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS: None. MAIN RESULTS: In total, 9,289 participants from 111 countries (776 people with coronavirus disease 2019 or family members, 4,882 health professionals, and 3,631 members of the public) completed the survey. The four outcomes of highest priority for all three groups were: mortality, respiratory failure, pneumonia, and organ failure. Lung function, lung scarring, sepsis, shortness of breath, and oxygen level in the blood were common to the top 10 outcomes across all three groups (mean > 7.5, median ≥ 8, and > 70% of respondents rated the outcome as critically important). Patients/family members rated fatigue, anxiety, chest pain, muscle pain, gastrointestinal problems, and cardiovascular disease higher than health professionals. Four themes underpinned prioritization: fear of life-threatening, debilitating, and permanent consequences; addressing knowledge gaps; enabling preparedness and planning; and tolerable or infrequent outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Life-threatening respiratory and other organ outcomes were consistently highly prioritized by all stakeholder groups. Patients/family members gave higher priority to many patient-reported outcomes compared with health professionals.

Core Outcomes Set for Trials in People With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The outcomes reported in trials in coronavirus disease 2019 are extremely heterogeneous and of uncertain patient relevance, limiting their applicability for clinical decision-making. The aim of this workshop was to establish a core outcomes set for trials in people with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019. DESIGN: Four international online multistakeholder consensus workshops were convened to discuss proposed core outcomes for trials in people with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019, informed by a survey involving 9,289 respondents from 111 countries. The transcripts were analyzed thematically. The workshop recommendations were used to finalize the core outcomes set. SETTING: International. SUBJECTS: Adults 18 years old and over with confirmed or suspected coronavirus disease 2019, their family members, members of the general public and health professionals (including clinicians, policy makers, regulators, funders, researchers). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS: None. MAIN RESULTS: Six themes were identified. "Responding to the critical and acute health crisis" reflected the immediate focus on saving lives and preventing life-threatening complications that underpinned the high prioritization of mortality, respiratory failure, and multiple organ failure. "Capturing different settings of care" highlighted the need to minimize the burden on hospitals and to acknowledge outcomes in community settings. "Encompassing the full trajectory and severity of disease" was addressing longer term impacts and the full spectrum of illness (e.g. shortness of breath and recovery). "Distinguishing overlap, correlation and collinearity" meant recognizing that symptoms such as shortness of breath had distinct value and minimizing overlap (e.g. lung function and pneumonia were on the continuum toward respiratory failure). "Recognizing adverse events" refers to the potential harms of new and evolving interventions. "Being cognizant of family and psychosocial wellbeing" reflected the pervasive impacts of coronavirus disease 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality, respiratory failure, multiple organ failure, shortness of breath, and recovery are critically important outcomes to be consistently reported in coronavirus disease 2019 trials.

Seasonal variability of respiratory syncytial virus infection in the Top End of the Northern Territory (2012-2014).

AIM: To determine the prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Top End of the Northern Territory and investigate potential drivers of seasonality including rainfall and humidex (humidity and heat index). METHODS: We performed a retrospective audit of laboratory confirmed cases of RSV from January 2012 to August 2014. Demographic details including age, sex and ethnicity were examined. RSV cases were correlated with monthly rainfall and humidex. RESULTS: There were 272 positive isolates detected from 4305 clinical samples (positivity rate 6.3%). The majority of cases occurred in children <12 months (n = 151, 55.5%), with a higher burden of disease seen in Indigenous compared to non-Indigenous infants in this age category (P < 0.005). The prevalence of RSV in the 0-5 years age category was 58/10 000 children per annum. Indigenous patients had higher prevalence rates (88.8/10 000 population per annum) and younger onset of infection (7.5 months; Interquartile range (IQR) 3-19 months compared to 13 months for non-Indigenous children; IQR 5 months to 2.4 years). RSV cases correlated most strongly with rainfall in the preceding month (r = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: The Top End of the Northern Territory has a distinct RSV season that correlates with rainfall and humidex, which differs from Southern Australian disease patterns.

Epidemiological investigation of an outbreak of cutaneous sporotrichosis, Northern Territory, Australia.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of cutaneous sporotrichosis occurred in the Darwin region of the Northern Territory (NT) in 2014. We aimed to determine the source and risk factors associated with the outbreak and describe the clinical spectrum of cases seen. METHODS: Epidemiological investigation of cases of cutaneous sporotrichosis identified through the Royal Darwin Hospital was undertaken to investigate risk factors and potential sources of infection. Data were collected through chart review and individual patient interviews. Environmental investigation followed identification of a common risk factor. RESULTS: Nine confirmed cases of cutaneous sporotrichosis caused by Sporothrix schenckii were identified with onset of symptoms between April and July 2014. Patients were aged 29 to 70 years and seven were male (78%). Two strains of S. schenckii were identified, neither of which have been previously documented. One common risk factor was identified: all patients were occupational or recreational gardeners, with each reporting exposure to mulching hay, originating from a single NT farm. Local environmental health officers visited the farm and the owners confirmed that the implicated hay had been stored over the monsoon season and had been affected by rain. Storage of hay over the wet season was a new practice. CONCLUSIONS: This constitutes the third reported outbreak of S. schenckii sporotrichosis attributable to contaminated hay in Australia and the first outbreak of sporotrichosis in the NT. This outbreak prompted public health interventions, including distribution of information to general practitioners, farmers and suppliers in the Top End. Media reporting led to the identification and treatment of an additional case. Local practitioners should remain alert to the possibility of further occurrences of sporotrichosis.

Clinical presentation and medical management of melioidosis in children: a 24-year prospective study in the Northern Territory of Australia and review of the literature.

BACKGROUND: Melioidosis is less common in children than adults. The clinical spectrum of disease varies greatly between the 2 groups. Treatment guidelines are currently based on adult studies, and revision of existing guidelines is necessary to instruct specific pediatric management. METHODS: Culture-confirmed cases of melioidosis in the Northern Territory between 1989 and 2013 were identified from the Prospective Melioidosis Study. The epidemiology and clinical spectrum of disease for children aged ≤ 16 years were analyzed and compared with the adult data. RESULTS: Forty-five pediatric patients were identified, representing 5% of the total 820 melioidosis cases over 24 years. Most children (84%) had no recognized risk factors for melioidosis, and 80% presented during the wet season. Primary cutaneous melioidosis was the commonest presentation in children (60% vs 13%; P < .001), whereas pneumonia predominated in adults (54% vs 20%; P < .001). Bacteremia was less common in children than in adults (16% vs 59%; P < .001). Brainstem encephalitis occurred in 3 children without risk factors. Children were more likely to report an inoculating event (42%; P < .001). There was no difference in mortality between the groups (P = .178), with 3 children dying (7%); all had identifiable risk factors. Four children with cutaneous melioidosis were successfully treated with oral therapy alone, while 2 had skin lesions that resolved spontaneously. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric melioidosis commonly manifests as localized cutaneous disease in immunocompetent hosts. The disease can be fatal, especially in individuals with risk factors for disease. Melioidosis with encephalomyelitis can result in severe residual disability. Prompt diagnosis requires a high index of clinical suspicion in endemic areas.

Notification and management of congenital syphilis in the Northern Territory 2009 to 2014.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether cases of congenital syphilis in the Northern Territory between 2009 and 2014 were correctly notified based on probable or confirmed case criteria stipulated by the Communicable Diseases Network Australia (CDNA). METHODS: Pregnant women with positive syphilis serology defined as reactive treponemal test and rapid plasma reagin titre ≥1:8 were identified from the Northern Territory Syphilis Register Information System. Risk classification was performed based on local guidelines, and CDNA criteria for probable/confirmed cases of congenital syphilis were applied to determine whether cases were appropriately notified. RESULTS: Thirty-four cases of positive maternal syphilis serology in pregnancy were identified from 31 women; all were Indigenous. Twenty-one cases fulfilled criteria for probable congenital syphilis; 1 case was formally notified to the Centre for Disease Control. Twenty cases (95%) fulfilling CDNA criteria for probable congenital syphilis were not notified over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Application of standard case definitions significantly increases the rate of congenital syphilis cases in the Northern Territory. Improved education regarding CDNA criteria for notification of congenital syphilis is necessary for clinicians and public health staff. Emerging evidence has supported the recent simplification of CDNA criteria for notification of congenital syphilis, effective 1 July 2015.

Evaluation of Pediatric HIV Postexposure Prophylaxis Guideline Following Child Sexual Assault in Western Australia.

BACKGROUND: HIV postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) following child sexual assault (CSA) is recommended in select cases. High rates of poor adherence to PEP are reported. We evaluated adherence to the recommended management of children following CSA at the tertiary pediatric facility in Western Australia and compared our approach with international guidelines. METHODS: Medical records were reviewed for all children <16 years old assessed at Perth Children's Hospital between October 1, 2016 and November 30, 2020 following alleged CSA. Data, including exposure type, PEP adherence and follow-up, were collected. A review of contemporary national and international PEP guidelines was undertaken in parallel. RESULTS: There were 511 alleged CSA events over the study period; 62/511 (12%) were appropriately risk-assessed as requiring PEP by the treating clinician. PEP was not prescribed in 8/62 (13%) events, with a reason documented for 6/8 (75%). Overall, less than half of children who were eligible for PEP were adherent to the 28-day regimen (23/54, 43%). Gastrointestinal upset contributed to early cessation in 5/54 (9%). Final 3-month blood-borne virus serology results were available in less than one in 3 children. A review of international clinical practice revealed significant heterogeneity of criteria for the provision of PEP and a paucity of pediatric-specific data. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several areas of our PEP management that required strengthening, with limited direction available in current international guidelines. We have adopted a broader use of fixed drug combinations and implemented a multifaceted follow-up program. It will be essential to review the impact of these changes.

Patient-reported outcome measures for paediatric acute lower respiratory infection studies.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are recommended for capturing meaningful outcomes in clinical trials. The use of PROMs for children with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) has not been systematically reported. We aimed to identify and characterise patient-reported outcomes and PROMs used in paediatric ALRI studies and summarise their measurement properties. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Cochrane were searched (until April 2022). Studies that reported on patient-reported outcome (or measure) use or development and included subjects aged <18 years with ALRIs were included. Study, population and patient-reported outcome (or measure) characteristics were extracted. RESULTS: Of 2793 articles identified, 18 met inclusion criteria, including 12 PROMs. Two disease-specific PROMs were used in settings in which they had been validated. The Canadian Acute Respiratory Illness and Flu Scale was the most frequently used disease-specific PROM (five studies). The EuroQol-Five Dimensions-Youth system was the most frequently used generic PROM (two studies). There was considerable heterogeneity in validation methods. The outcome measures identified in this review lack validation for young children and none involve sufficient content validity for use with First Nations children. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need for PROM development that considers the populations in which the burden of ALRI predominates.

BEAT CF pulmonary exacerbations core protocol for evaluating the management of pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare, inherited, life-limiting condition predominantly affecting the lungs, for which there is no cure. The disease is characterized by recurrent pulmonary exacerbations (PEx), which are thought to drive progressive lung damage. Management of these episodes is complex and generally involves multiple interventions targeting different aspects of disease. The emergence of innovative trials and use of Bayesian statistical methods has created renewed opportunities for studying heterogeneous populations in rare diseases. Here, we present the protocol for the BEAT CF PEx cohort, a prospective, multi-site, perpetual, platform enrolling adults and children with CF. The BEAT CF PEx cohort will be used to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of interventions for the treatment of PEx requiring intensive therapy (PERITs), with a primary focus on short-term improvements in lung function. This will be achieved through the conduct of cohort-nested studies, including adaptive clinical trials, within the BEAT CF PEx cohort. This protocol will outline key features of the BEAT CF PEx cohort, including the design, implementation, data collection and management, governance and analysis, and dissemination of results. METHODS: This platform will be conducted across multiple sites, commencing with CF treatment centers in Australia. People of all ages with a clinical diagnosis of CF will be eligible to participate, except those who have previously received a lung transplant. Data including demographic and clinical information, treatment details, and outcomes (including safety, microbiology, and patient-reported outcome measures including quality of life scores) will be systematically collected and securely stored via a digital centralized trial management system (CTMS). The primary endpoint is the absolute change in the percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (ppFEV1) from the commencement of intensive therapy to 7 to 10 days afterwards. DISCUSSION: The BEAT CF PEx cohort will report clinical, treatment, and outcome data for PEx among people with CF and is intended to serve as a core (master) protocol for future nested, interventional trials evaluating treatment(s) for these episodes. The protocols for nested sub-studies are beyond the scope of this document and will be reported separately. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR BEAT CF Platform - ACTRN12621000638831. Registration date: Sept. 26, 2022.

Re-examining Hepatitis B Postexposure Prophylaxis Following Pediatric Community-acquired Needle-stick Injury in an Era of a National Immunization Registry.

BACKGROUND: Long-term hepatitis B immunity has been demonstrated following the completion of the primary vaccination series in childhood. Some guidelines recommend a hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) directed approach following community-acquired needle-stick injury (CANSI) to inform hepatitis B postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) management. We assessed the utility of anti-HBs testing post-CANSI, as well as the costing of, and adherence to PEP at a pediatric hospital. METHODS: Children presenting to an Australian tertiary pediatric hospital post-CANSI (2014-2019) were identified retrospectively using medical and laboratory records. Immunization status was obtained from the Australian Immunisation Registry. RESULTS: Fifty-six children with CANSI were identified. Of those with immunization records, all had completed hepatitis B vaccinations (n = 52). At presentation, 44% (n = 23) had anti-HBs <10 IU/L, which was more likely in older (≥6 years, 68%) versus younger children (OR 4.59, P < 0.02). HBIG and hepatitis B vaccine adherence was 65% (15/23) and 78% (18/23), respectively. All children (n = 14) with anti-HBs ≥4 weeks postvaccination ±HBIG, demonstrated an anamnestic response. No hepatitis B infections were detected. Using completed immunizations versus anti-HBs levels as a marker of immunity to direct PEP resulted in a projected cost savings of AUD$ 4234. CONCLUSION: Anti-HBs levels <10 IU/L, despite previous vaccinations, were frequent in children post-CANSI, with many demonstrating an anamnestic response. Adherence to postexposure HBIG and hepatitis B vaccine was suboptimal using an anti-HBs directed approach. These data support re-evaluating PEP in an era of the national immunization registry; completion of hepatitis B vaccinations as a marker of immunity provides a practical approach, ensuring optimized care for pediatric CANSI.

Preferred health outcome states following treatment for pulmonary exacerbations of cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment for pulmonary exacerbations of cystic fibrosis (CF) can produce a range of positive and negative outcomes. Understanding which of these outcomes are achievable and desirable to people affected by disease is critical to agreeing to goals of therapy and determining endpoints for trials. The relative importance of outcomes resulting from treatment of these episodes are not reported. We aimed to (i) quantify the relative importance of outcomes resulting from treatment for pulmonary exacerbations and (ii) develop patient and proxy carer-reported weighted outcome measures for use in adults and children, respectively. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey was conducted. Participants were asked to make a series of hypothetical decisions about treatment for pulmonary exacerbations to assess how they make trade-offs between different attributes of health. Data were analysed using a conditional logistic regression model. The correlation coefficients from these data were rescaled to enable generation of a composite health outcome score between 0 and 100 (worst to best health state). RESULTS: 362 individuals participated (167 people with CF and 195 carers); of these, 206 completed the survey (56.9%). Most participants were female and resided in Australia. Difficult/painful breathing had the greatest impact on the preferred health state amongst people with CF and carers alike. Avoidance of gastrointestinal problems also heavily influenced decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: These data should be considered when making treatment decisions and determining endpoints for trials. Further research is recommended to quantify the preferences of children and to determine whether these align with those of their carer(s).

The Impact of a Multifaceted Tertiary Pediatric Hospital's Antimicrobial Stewardship Service.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobials are the most commonly prescribed drug class in children. Overuse through inappropriate prescribing is a key driver of antimicrobial resistance and is recognized as one of the top 10 threats to global health by the World Health Organization. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study was performed following implementation of a multifaceted Antimicrobial Stewardship (AMS) program (January 2014 to December 2020). Data were collected on AMS and "handshake" ward rounds from patient information sources and directly from clinicians responsible for patient care. Primary outcomes include appropriateness of therapy (drug, dose, antimicrobial spectrum, duration and route), compliance with prescribing guidelines, antimicrobial expenditure, use of high-priority antimicrobials and duration of hospitalization. We compared outcomes across 3 time periods; January 2014-December 2015, January 2016-December 2017 and January 2018-December 2020. RESULTS: The appropriateness of individual antimicrobial orders improved across the study periods from 6111/7040 (79.4%) in the first 2 years following implementation of the AMS program to 17,819/19,229 (92.3%) in the latter period. Guideline compliance increased from 5426/7700 (70.5%) to 17,822/19,316 (92.3%). A reduction in overall antimicrobial expenditure (34% reduction, equivalent to $12.52 per bed day) and a decrease in antifungal expenditure (37% reduction, equivalent to $5.56 per bed day) was observed across the time periods. CONCLUSIONS: This study quantifies a comprehensive pediatric AMS program's sustained impact on reducing inappropriate antimicrobial use and expenditure and improving compliance with guidelines. The effectiveness of these interventions has been demonstrated and should be considered by institutions seeking to improve rational antimicrobial use in children.

Protocol for establishing a core outcome set for evaluation in studies of pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis.

INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary exacerbations are associated with increased morbidity and mortality in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). There is no consensus about which outcomes should be evaluated in studies of pulmonary exacerbations or how these outcomes should be measured. Outcomes of importance to people with lived experience of the disease are frequently omitted or inconsistently reported in studies, which limits the value of such studies for informing practice and policy. To better standardise outcome reporting and measurement, we aim to develop a core outcome set for studies of pulmonary exacerbations in people with CF (COS-PEX) and consensus recommendations for measurement of core outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Preliminary work for development of COS-PEX has been reported, including (1) systematic reviews of outcomes and methods for measurement reported in existing studies of pulmonary exacerbations; (2) workshops with people affected by CF within Australia; and (3) a Bayesian knowledge expert elicitation workshop with health professionals to ascertain outcomes of importance. Here we describe a protocol for the additional stages required for COS-PEX development and consensus methods for measurement of core outcomes. These include (1) an international two-round online Delphi survey and (2) consensus workshops to review and endorse the proposed COS-PEX and to agree with methods for measurement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: National mutual ethics scheme approval has been provided by the Child and Adolescent Health Service Human Research Ethics Committee (RGS 4926). Results will be disseminated via consumer and research networks and peer-reviewed publications. This study is registered with the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials database.

Novel method to select meaningful outcomes for evaluation in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: A standardised framework for selecting outcomes for evaluation in trials has been proposed by the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials working group. However, this method does not specify how to ensure that the outcomes that are selected are causally related to the disease and the health intervention being studied. Causal network diagrams may help researchers identify outcomes that are both clinically meaningful and likely to be causally dependent on the intervention, and endpoints that are, in turn, causally dependent on those outcomes. We aimed to (1) develop a generalisable method for selecting outcomes and endpoints in trials and (2) apply this method to select outcomes for evaluation in a trial investigating treatment strategies for pulmonary exacerbations of cystic fibrosis (CF). METHODS: We conducted a series of online surveys and workshops among people affected by CF. We used a modified Delphi approach to develop a consensus list of important outcomes. A workshop involving domain experts elicited how these outcomes were causally related to the underlying pathophysiological processes. Meaningful outcomes were prioritised based on the extent to which each outcome captured separate rather than common aspects of the underlying pathophysiological process. RESULTS: The 10 prioritised outcomes were: breathing difficulty/pain, sputum production/clearance, fatigue, appetite, pain (not related to breathing), motivation/demoralisation, fevers/night sweats, treatment burden, inability to meet personal goals and avoidance of gastrointestinal symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This proposed method for selecting meaningful outcomes for evaluation in clinical trials may improve the value of research as a basis for clinical decisions.