Use of Large Language Models to Assess the Likelihood of Epidemics From the Content of Tweets: Infodemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous work suggests that Google searches could be useful in identifying conjunctivitis epidemics. Content-based assessment of social media content may provide additional value in serving as early indicators of conjunctivitis and other systemic infectious diseases. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether large language models, specifically GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 (OpenAI), can provide probabilistic assessments of whether social media posts about conjunctivitis could indicate a regional outbreak. METHODS: A total of 12,194 conjunctivitis-related tweets were obtained using a targeted Boolean search in multiple languages from India, Guam (United States), Martinique (France), the Philippines, American Samoa (United States), Fiji, Costa Rica, Haiti, and the Bahamas, covering the time frame from January 1, 2012, to March 13, 2023. By providing these tweets via prompts to GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, we obtained probabilistic assessments that were validated by 2 human raters. We then calculated Pearson correlations of these time series with tweet volume and the occurrence of known outbreaks in these 9 locations, with time series bootstrap used to compute CIs. RESULTS: Probabilistic assessments derived from GPT-3.5 showed correlations of 0.60 (95% CI 0.47-0.70) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.40-0.65) with the 2 human raters, with higher results for GPT-4. The weekly averages of GPT-3.5 probabilities showed substantial correlations with weekly tweet volume for 44% (4/9) of the countries, with correlations ranging from 0.10 (95% CI 0.0-0.29) to 0.53 (95% CI 0.39-0.89), with larger correlations for GPT-4. More modest correlations were found for correlation with known epidemics, with substantial correlation only in American Samoa (0.40, 95% CI 0.16-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that GPT prompting can efficiently assess the content of social media posts and indicate possible disease outbreaks to a degree of accuracy comparable to that of humans. Furthermore, we found that automated content analysis of tweets is related to tweet volume for conjunctivitis-related posts in some locations and to the occurrence of actual epidemics. Future work may improve the sensitivity and specificity of these methods for disease outbreak detection.

A Google Trends Approach to Identify Distinct Diurnal and Day-of-Week Web-Based Search Patterns Related to Conjunctivitis and Other Common Eye Conditions: Infodemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest diurnal patterns of occurrence of some eye conditions. Leveraging new information sources such as web-based search data to learn more about such patterns could improve the understanding of patients' eye-related conditions and well-being, better inform timing of clinical and remote eye care, and improve precision when targeting web-based public health campaigns toward underserved populations. OBJECTIVE: To investigate our hypothesis that the public is likely to consistently search about different ophthalmologic conditions at different hours of the day or days of week, we conducted an observational study using search data for terms related to ophthalmologic conditions such as conjunctivitis. We assessed whether search volumes reflected diurnal or day-of-week patterns and if those patterns were distinct from each other. METHODS: We designed a study to analyze and compare hourly search data for eye-related and control search terms, using time series regression models with trend and periodicity terms to remove outliers and then estimate diurnal effects. We planned a Google Trends setting, extracting data from 10 US states for the entire year of 2018. The exposure was internet search, and the participants were populations who searched through Google's search engine using our chosen study terms. Our main outcome measures included cyclical hourly and day-of-week web-based search patterns. For statistical analyses, we considered P<.001 to be statistically significant. RESULTS: Distinct diurnal (P<.001 for all search terms) and day-of-week search patterns for eye-related terms were observed but with differing peak time periods and cyclic strengths. Some diurnal patterns represented those reported from prior clinical studies. Of the eye-related terms, "pink eye" showed the largest diurnal amplitude-to-mean ratios. Stronger signal was restricted to and peaked in mornings, and amplitude was higher on weekdays. By contrast, "dry eyes" had a higher amplitude diurnal pattern on weekends, with stronger signal occurring over a broader evening-to-morning period and peaking in early morning. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of web-based searches for various eye conditions can show cyclic patterns according to time of the day or week. Further studies to understand the reasons for these variations may help supplement the current clinical understanding of ophthalmologic symptom presentation and improve the timeliness of patient messaging and care interventions.

Preoperative Medical Testing and Falls in Medicare Beneficiaries Awaiting Cataract Surgery.

PURPOSE: Delaying cataract surgery is associated with an increased risk of falls, but whether routine preoperative testing delays cataract surgery long enough to cause clinical harm is unknown. We sought to determine whether the use of routine preoperative testing leads to harm in the form of delayed surgery and falls in Medicare beneficiaries awaiting cataract surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective, observational cohort study using 2006-2014 Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare beneficiaries 66+ years of age with a Current Procedural Terminology claim for ocular biometry. METHODS: We measured the mean and median number of days between biometry and cataract surgery, calculated the proportion of patients waiting ≥ 30 days or ≥ 90 days for surgery, and determined the odds of sustaining a fall within 90 days of biometry among patients of high-testing physicians (testing performed in ≥ 75% of their patients) compared with patients of low-testing physicians. We also estimated the number of days of delay attributable to high-testing physicians. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of falls occurring between biometry and surgery, odds of falling within 90 days of biometry, and estimated delay associated with physician testing behavior. RESULTS: Of 248 345 beneficiaries, 16.4% were patients of high-testing physicians. More patients of high-testing physicians waited ≥ 30 days and ≥ 90 days to undergo surgery (31.4% and 8.2% vs. 25.0% and 5.5%, respectively; P < 0.0001 for both). Falls before surgery in patients of high-testing physicians increased by 43% within the 90 days after ocular biometry (1.0% vs. 0.7%; P < 0.0001). The adjusted odds ratio of falling within 90 days of biometry in patients of high-testing physicians versus low-testing physicians was 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.19; P = 0.008). After adjusting for surgical wait time, the odds ratio decreased to 1.07 (95% CI, 1.00-1.15; P = 0.06). The delay associated with having a high-testing physician was approximately 8 days (estimate, 7.97 days; 95% CI, 6.40-9.55 days; P < 0.0001). Other factors associated with delayed surgery included patient race (non-White), Northeast region, ophthalmologist ≤ 40 years of age, and low surgical volume. CONCLUSIONS: Overuse of routine preoperative medical testing by high-testing physicians is associated with delayed surgery and increased falls in cataract patients awaiting surgery.

The Effect of Tube Location on Corneal Endothelial Cells in Patients with Ahmed Glaucoma Valve.

PURPOSE: To compare the effects of the Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV; New World Medical, Rancho Cucamonga, CA) with sulcus versus anterior chamber (AC) tube placement on the corneal endothelial density and morphology over time. DESIGN: Nonrandomized, interventional study. PARTICIPANTS: This study included 106 eyes from 101 pseudophakic patients who had the AGV tube placed in the AC (acAGV) and 105 eyes from 94 pseudophakic patients who had the AGV tube placed in the ciliary sulcus (sAGV). METHODS: All patients underwent preoperative specular microscopy, which was repeated postoperatively in 2019. The patients' demographic information, glaucoma diagnoses, and basic ocular information were obtained on chart review. Anterior segment OCT was conducted for patients who underwent sAGV to evaluate the sulcus tube position. Gonioscopy was performed to document peripheral anterior synechiae (PAS). Linear mixed-effects models were used to compare the different ocular and endothelial measurements between the 2 groups and to identify risk factors for endothelial cell density (ECD) loss over time. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Monthly change in corneal endothelial measurements, including ECD and coefficient of variation (CV), calculated as the difference between preoperative and postoperative measurements divided by the number of months from the time of surgery to postoperative specular microscopy. RESULTS: The acAGV and sAGV groups were comparable in all baseline characteristics except that the acAGV group had longer follow-up (37.6 vs. 20.1 months, respectively, P < 0.001). Mean monthly loss in central ECD was significantly more in the acAGV group (mean ± standard deviation: 29.3±29.7 cells/mm2) than in the sAGV group (15.3±20.7 cells/mm2, P < 0.0001). Mean monthly change in CV was similar between the 2 groups (P = 0.28). Multivariate analyses revealed that younger age and tube location in the AC were associated with faster central ECD loss (P = 0.02, P < 0.0001, respectively). For patients with sAGV, while PAS was associated with faster central ECD loss (P = 0.002), a more forward tube position tenting the iris was not (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with anterior segment placement, ciliary sulcus tube implantation may be a preferred surgery approach to reduce endothelial cell loss in pseudophakic patients.

Google Searches and Detection of Conjunctivitis Epidemics Worldwide.

PURPOSE: Epidemic and seasonal infectious conjunctivitis outbreaks can impact education, workforce, and economy adversely. Yet conjunctivitis typically is not a reportable disease, potentially delaying mitigating intervention. Our study objective was to determine if conjunctivitis epidemics could be identified using Google Trends search data. DESIGN: Search data for conjunctivitis-related and control search terms from 5 years and countries worldwide were obtained. Country and term were masked. Temporal scan statistics were applied to identify candidate epidemics. Candidates then were assessed for geotemporal concordance with an a priori defined collection of known reported conjunctivitis outbreaks, as a measure of sensitivity. PARTICIPANTS: Populations by country that searched Google's search engine using our study terms. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Percent of known conjunctivitis outbreaks also found in the same country and period by our candidate epidemics, identified from conjunctivitis-related searches. RESULTS: We identified 135 candidate conjunctivitis epidemic periods from 77 countries. Compared with our a priori defined collection of known reported outbreaks, candidate conjunctivitis epidemics identified 18 of 26 (69% sensitivity) of the reported country-wide or island nationwide outbreaks, or both; 9 of 20 (45% sensitivity) of the reported region or district-wide outbreaks, or both; but far fewer nosocomial and reported smaller outbreaks. Similar overall and individual sensitivity, as well as specificity, were found on a country-level basis. We also found that 83% of our candidate epidemics had start dates before (of those, 20% were more than 12 weeks before) their concurrent reported outbreak's report issuance date. Permutation tests provided evidence that on average, conjunctivitis candidate epidemics occurred geotemporally closer to outbreak reports than chance alone suggests (P < 0.001) unlike control term candidates (P = 0.40). CONCLUSIONS: Conjunctivitis outbreaks can be detected using temporal scan analysis of Google search data alone, with more than 80% detected before an outbreak report's issuance date, some as early as the reported outbreak's start date. Future approaches using data from smaller regions, social media, and more search terms may improve sensitivity further and cross-validate detected candidates, allowing identification of candidate conjunctivitis epidemics from Internet search data potentially to complementarily benefit traditional reporting and detection systems to improve epidemic awareness.

Descemet Endothelial Thickness Comparison Trial: A Randomized Trial Comparing Ultrathin Descemet Stripping Automated Endothelial Keratoplasty with Descemet Membrane Endothelial Keratoplasty.

PURPOSE: To compare clinical outcomes of ultrathin Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (UT-DSAEK) and Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) in the treatment of corneal endothelial dysfunction. DESIGN: Patient and outcome-masked, randomized controlled clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with damaged or diseased endothelium from Fuchs endothelial dystrophy or pseudophakic bullous keratopathy who were considered good candidates for DMEK or UT-DSAEK. METHODS: Study eyes were randomized by the eye bank to UT-DSAEK or DMEK 1 to 2 days before surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome of the trial was best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included 3- and 12-month BSCVA; 3-, 6-, and 12-month endothelial cell counts; intraoperative and postoperative complications; and change in pachymetry. RESULTS: A total of 216 patients with endothelial dysfunction were screened, and 50 eyes of 38 patients were enrolled by 2 surgeons at Casey Eye Institute at Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, Oregon, and at Byers Eye Institute at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California. Overall, we found DMEK to have better visual acuity outcomes compared with UT-DSAEK after correcting for baseline visual acuity: compared with UT-DSAEK, those randomized to DMEK had 1.5 lines better BSCVA at 3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5-0.6 lines better; P = 0.002), 1.8 lines better BSCVA at 6 months (95% CI, 2.8-1.0 lines better; P < 0.001), and 1.4 lines better BSCVA at 12 months (95% CI, 2.2-0.7 lines better; P < 0.001). Average endothelial cell counts were 1963 cells/mm2 in DMEK and 2113 cells/mm2 in UT-DSAEK at 6 months (P = 0.17) and 1855 cells/mm2 in DMEK and 2070 cells/mm2 in UT-DSAEK at 12 months (P = 0.051). Intraoperative and postoperative complication rates were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty had superior visual acuity results compared with UT-DSAEK at 3, 6, and 12 months in patients with isolated endothelial dysfunction with similar complication rates.

Use of adjunctive topical corticosteroids in bacterial keratitis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Topical corticosteroid use in the setting of infectious keratitis has been a controversial issue. The aim of this review is to provide an update on the evidence for use of topical corticosteroids in addition to antibiotics in bacterial keratitis. RECENT FINDINGS: Judicious use of steroids is postulated to limit the inflammatory component of bacterial keratitis, but can theoretically retard healing. Three small randomized controlled trials and one large-scale trial, the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial, have provided the most recent evidence to address this debate. Adjunctive topical corticosteroids initiated after at least 48 h of antibiotic usage in cases of culture-proven bacterial keratitis appear generally safe in the treatment of bacterial keratitis. They may be beneficial in cases of severe ulcers especially when initiated early in the course of the infection, in non-Nocardia ulcers, and in certain Pseudomonas ulcers. SUMMARY: Several randomized controlled trials have greatly contributed to our understanding of the controversy over steroid use in the management of bacterial keratitis. Future studies are needed to confirm subgroup analysis findings and define optimal timing, dosage, and the most appropriate treatment populations.

Effect of pretreatment with antifungal agents on clinical outcomes in fungal keratitis.

BACKGROUND: To determine if pretreatment with antifungal agents is predictive of worse clinical outcome in a fungal keratitis clinical trial. DESIGN: Non-pre-specified subgroup analysis of a randomized controlled trial in a tertiary hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred twenty-three fungal ulcer cases with an enrolment visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400. METHODS: The Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I was a randomized, double-masked trial to determine the optimal treatment for filamentous fungal keratitis at the Aravind Eye Care System, India. Enrolled cases were randomized to receive topical natamycin or voriconazole. Prior antifungal medication use, dose and duration were collected at enrolment. A subgroup analysis was performed to determine if patients using natamycin or azoles at presentation have worse clinical outcomes compared with those who were not pretreated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Three-month visual acuity (primary), 3-month infiltrate or scar size, corneal perforation and/or transplant and re-epithelialization time. RESULTS: Of the 323 patients enrolled, 44% presented on an antifungal agent. Pretreated patients had larger mean baseline infiltrate size (P < 0.001) and epithelial defect size (P = 0.02). Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that pretreatment was associated with significantly worse 3-month visual acuity (P = 0.006), larger 3-month scar size (P < 0.001) and increased odds of corneal perforation and/or transplant (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Fungal keratitis that is smear-positive despite being pretreated with appropriate antifungal agents appears to be a risk factor for worse outcomes, likely a result of initial ulcer severity and treatment failure. These patients may benefit from more aggressive multimodal therapy at a tertiary centre.

Association between in vitro susceptibility to natamycin and voriconazole and clinical outcomes in fungal keratitis.

PURPOSE: To assess the association between minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and clinical outcomes in a fungal keratitis clinical trial. DESIGN: Experimental study using data from a randomized comparative trial. PARTICIPANTS: Of the 323 patients enrolled in the trial, we were able to obtain MIC values from 221 patients with monocular fungal keratitis. METHODS: The Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I was a randomized, double-masked clinical trial comparing clinical outcomes of monotherapy with topical natamycin versus voriconazole for the treatment of fungal keratitis. Speciation and determination of MIC to natamycin and voriconazole were performed according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines. The relationship between MIC and clinical outcome was assessed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was 3-month best spectacle-corrected visual acuity. Secondary outcomes included 3-month infiltrate or scar size; corneal perforation and/or therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty; and time to re-epithelialization. RESULTS: A 2-fold increase in MIC was associated with a larger 3-month infiltrate or scar size (0.21 mm; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10-0.31; P < 0.001) and increased odds of perforation (odds ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.04-1.69; P = 0.02). No correlation was found between MIC and 3-month visual acuity. For natamycin-treated cases, an association was found between higher natamycin MIC with larger 3-month infiltrate or scar size (0.29 mm; 95% CI, 0.15-0.43; P < 0.001) and increased perforations (odds ratio, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.46-3.97; P < 0.001). Among voriconazole-treated cases, the voriconazole MIC did not correlate with any of the measured outcomes in the study. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased susceptibility to natamycin was associated with increased infiltrate or scar size and increased odds of perforation. There was no association between susceptibility to voriconazole and outcome.

The effect of procedure room temperature and humidity on LASIK outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether procedure room temperature or humidity during LASIK affect refractive outcomes in a large patient sample. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 202 394 eyes of 105 712 patients aged 18 to 75 years who underwent LASIK at an Optical Express, Inc., location in their United Kingdom and Ireland centers from January 1, 2008, to June 30, 2011, who met inclusion criteria. METHODS: Patient age, gender, flap creation technique, pre- and 1-month post-LASIK manifest refraction, and ambient temperature and humidity during LASIK were recorded. Effect size determination and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to characterize the relationships between LASIK procedure room temperature and humidity and postoperative refractive outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: One month post-LASIK manifest refraction. RESULTS: No clinically significant effect of procedure room temperature or humidity was found on LASIK refractive outcomes. When considering all eyes in our population, an increase of 1°C during LASIK was associated with a 0.003 diopter (D) more hyperopic refraction 1 month postoperatively, and an increase in 1% humidity was associated with a 0.0004 more myopic refraction. These effect sizes were the same or similar when considering only myopic eyes, only hyperopic eyes, and subgroups of eyes stratified by age and preoperative refractive error. CONCLUSIONS: Neither procedure room temperature nor humidity during LASIK were found to have a clinically significant relationship with postoperative manifest refraction in our population.