Lymph node conduits transport virions for rapid T cell activation.

Despite intense interest in antiviral T cell priming, the routes by which virions move in lymph nodes (LNs) are imperfectly understood. Current models fail to explain how virus-infected cells rapidly appear within the LN interior after viral infection. To better understand virion trafficking in the LN, we determined the locations of virions and infected cells after administration to mice of vaccinia virus or Zika virus. Notably, many rapidly infected cells in the LN interior were adjacent to LN conduits. Through the use of confocal and electron microscopy, we clearly visualized virions within conduits. Functionally, CD8+ T cells rapidly and preferentially associated with vaccinia virus-infected cells in the LN paracortex, which led to T cell activation in the LN interior. These results reveal that it is possible for even large virions to flow through LN conduits and infect dendritic cells within the T cell zone to prime CD8+ T cells.

Group 1 innate lymphoid-cell-derived interferon-γ maintains anti-viral vigilance in the mucosal epithelium.

The oropharyngeal mucosa serves as a perpetual pathogen entry point and a critical site for viral replication and spread. Here, we demonstrate that type 1 innate lymphoid cells (ILC1s) were the major immune force providing early protection during acute oral mucosal viral infection. Using intravital microscopy, we show that ILC1s populated and patrolled the uninfected labial mucosa. ILC1s produced interferon-γ (IFN-γ) in the absence of infection, leading to the upregulation of key antiviral genes, which were downregulated in uninfected animals upon genetic ablation of ILC1s or antibody-based neutralization of IFN-γ. Thus, tonic IFN-γ production generates increased oral mucosal viral resistance even before infection. Our results demonstrate barrier-tissue protection through tissue surveillance in the absence of rearranged-antigen receptors and the induction of an antiviral state during homeostasis. This aspect of ILC1 biology raises the possibility that these cells do not share true functional redundancy with other tissue-resident lymphocytes.

PD-1 combination therapy with IL-2 modifies CD8+ T cell exhaustion program.

Combination therapy with PD-1 blockade and IL-2 is highly effective during chronic lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection1. Here we examine the underlying basis for this synergy. We show that PD-1 + IL-2 combination therapy, in contrast to PD-1 monotherapy, substantially changes the differentiation program of the PD-1+TCF1+ stem-like CD8+ T cells and results in the generation of transcriptionally and epigenetically distinct effector CD8+ T cells that resemble highly functional effector CD8+ T cells seen after an acute viral infection. The generation of these qualitatively superior CD8+ T cells that mediate viral control underlies the synergy between PD-1 and IL-2. Our results show that the PD-1+TCF1+ stem-like CD8+ T cells, also referred to as precursors of exhausted CD8+ T cells, are not fate-locked into the exhaustion program and their differentiation trajectory can be changed by IL-2 signals. These virus-specific effector CD8+ T cells emerging from the stem-like CD8+ T cells after combination therapy expressed increased levels of the high-affinity IL-2 trimeric (CD25-CD122-CD132) receptor. This was not seen after PD-1 blockade alone. Finally, we show that CD25 engagement with IL-2 has an important role in the observed synergy between IL-2 cytokine and PD-1 blockade. Either blocking CD25 with an antibody or using a mutated version of IL-2 that does not bind to CD25 but still binds to CD122 and CD132 almost completely abrogated the synergistic effects observed after PD-1 + IL-2 combination therapy. There is considerable interest in PD-1 + IL-2 combination therapy for patients with cancer2,3, and our fundamental studies defining the underlying mechanisms of how IL-2 synergizes with PD-1 blockade should inform these human translational studies.

Characteristics and anatomic location of PD-1+TCF1+ stem-like CD8 T cells in chronic viral infection and cancer.

CD8 T cells play an essential role in antitumor immunity and chronic viral infections. Recent findings have delineated the differentiation pathway of CD8 T cells in accordance with the progenitor-progeny relationship of TCF1+ stem-like and Tim-3+TCF1- more differentiated T cells. Here, we investigated the characteristics of stem-like and differentiated CD8 T cells isolated from several murine tumor models and human lung cancer samples in terms of phenotypic and transcriptional features as well as their location compared to virus-specific CD8 T cells in the chronically lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV)-infected mice. We found that CD8 tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in both murine and human tumors exhibited overall similar phenotypic and transcriptional characteristics compared to corresponding subsets in the spleen of chronically infected mice. Moreover, stem-like CD8 TILs exclusively responded and produced effector-like progeny CD8 T cells in vivo after antigenic restimulation, confirming their lineage relationship and the proliferative potential of stem-like CD8 TILs. Most importantly, similar to the preferential localization of PD-1+ stem-like CD8 T cells in T cell zones of the spleen during chronic LCMV infection, we found that the PD-1+ stem-like CD8 TILs in lung cancer samples are preferentially located not in the tumor parenchyma but in tertiary lymphoid structures (TLSs). The stem-like CD8 T cells are present in TLSs located within and at the periphery of the tumor, as well as in TLSs closely adjacent to the tumor parenchyma. These findings suggest that TLSs provide a protective niche to support the quiescence and maintenance of stem-like CD8 T cells in the tumor.

Longitudinal Analysis of the Phenotype, Transcriptional Profile, and Anatomic Location of Memory CD8 T Cell Subsets after Acute Viral Infection.

Increased demand for novel, highly effective vaccination strategies necessitates a better understanding of long-lived memory CD8 T cell differentiation. To achieve this understanding, we used the mouse model of acute lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection. We reexamined classical memory CD8 T cell subsets and performed in-depth, longitudinal analysis of their phenotype, transcriptional programming, and anatomic location within the spleen. All analyses were performed at multiple time points from 8 days to 1 year postinfection. Memory subsets are conventionally defined by their expression of KLRG1 and IL-7Rα, as follows: KLRG1+IL-7Rα- terminal effectors (TEs) and KLRG1-IL-7Rα+ memory precursors (MPs). But we also characterized a third KLRG1+IL-7Rα+ subset which we refer to as KLRG1+ MPs. In these analyses, we defined a comprehensive memory phenotype that is associated with higher levels of CD28 expression. We also demonstrated that MPs, KLRG1+ MPs, and TEs have distinct localization programs within the spleen. We found that MPs became preferentially enriched in the white pulp as early as 1 to 2 weeks postinfection, and their predominance in the white pulp was maintained throughout the course of a year. On the other hand, KLRG1+ MPs and TEs localized to the red pulp just as early, and they consistently localized to the red pulp thereafter. These findings indicate that location may be crucial for memory formation and that white pulp-derived signals may contribute to long-term memory survival. Achieving robust memory responses following vaccination may require more deliberate consideration of which memory phenotypes are induced, as well as where they traffic, as these factors could impact their longevity. IMPORTANCE CD8 T cells play a critical role in viral immunity and it is important to understand how memory cells are formed and what processes lead to their long-term maintenance. Here, we use a mouse model of acute infection to perform an in-depth, longitudinal analysis of memory CD8 T cell differentiation, examining the phenotype and location of memory cells out to 1 year postinfection.

Choice of oral anticoagulant prescribed by general practices in Wales: Application of Dirichlet regression and linked data.

AIMS: There has been sustained growth in the prescribing of direct oral anticoagulants (OACs) in primary care in the UK. Given the different indications, properties and prices of OACs, variation between prescribers is expected; however, a high level of variation may be evidence of inappropriate or suboptimal prescribing. This study examined the variation in the relative use of OACs in primary care in Wales. METHODS: Data on total defined daily doses of all community-dispensed OACs in 2019 were linked at the GP practice level with disease registers, patient demographic data and GP and patient numbers. The relative use of each OAC, as a fraction of all OACs prescribed, was analysed using Dirichlet regression to quantify the association between prescribing patterns and practice and area-level characteristics. RESULTS: Across 417 GP practices, the mean (range) in the relative prescribing of warfarin was 37% (6%-64%), apixaban was 32% (2%-65%), rivaroxaban 23% (0%-66%), dabigatran 3% (0%-23%) and edoxaban 6% (0%-59%). Statistical modelling provided strong evidence that prescribing patterns are associated with a GP practice's health board and also their nearest major hospital. Compared to the null model, a model including health board resulted in a 15% fall in Akaike information criterion, increasing to 20% with the addition of nearest major hospital and 27% including further covariates. CONCLUSION: Systematic variation in OAC prescribing, by health board and based on nearest hospital, indicates that factors other than patient clinical characteristics and preferences may be influencing prescribing decisions.

Influenza A Virus Negative Strand RNA Is Translated for CD8+ T Cell Immunosurveillance.

Probing the limits of CD8+ T cell immunosurveillance, we inserted the SIINFEKL peptide into influenza A virus (IAV)-negative strand gene segments. Although IAV genomic RNA is considered noncoding, there is a conserved, relatively long open reading frame present in segment 8, encoding a potential protein termed NEG8. The biosynthesis of NEG8 from IAV has yet to be demonstrated. Although we failed to detect NEG8 protein expression in IAV-infected mouse cells, cell surface Kb-SIINFEKL complexes are generated when SIINFEKL is genetically appended to the predicted C terminus of NEG8, as shown by activation of OT-I T cells in vitro and in vivo. Moreover, recombinant IAV encoding of SIINFEKL embedded in the negative strand of the neuraminidase-stalk coding sequence also activates OT-I T cells in mice. Together, our findings demonstrate both the translation of sequences on the negative strand of a single-stranded RNA virus and its relevance in antiviral immunosurveillance.

Impact of non-adherence on the safety and efficacy of uric acid-lowering therapies in the treatment of gout.

AIMS: Dual-urate-lowering therapy (ULT) with xanthine oxidase inhibitor and uricosuric medications is a treatment option for severe gout. Uricosuric agents can cause hyperuricosuria, a risk factor for nephrolithiasis and acute uric acid nephropathy. The aims of the present study were to simulate the relationship between suboptimal drug adherence and efficacy, and to quantify the risk of hyperuricosuria in gout patients receiving mono- and dual-ULTs. METHODS: The impact of poor medication adherence was studied using two-compartment pharmacokinetic (PK) models based on published evidence, and a semi-mechanistic four-compartment pharmacodynamic (PD) model. The PKPD model was used to simulate mono and dual-ULT in gout patients with either under-excretion (lowered clearance) or overproduction of uric acid, with suboptimal adherence modelled as either a single drug holiday of increasing duration or doses taken at random. RESULTS: Simulation results showed a surge in urinary uric acid occurring when dosing is restarted following missed doses. For under-excreters taking a 20-day drug holiday, the addition of 200 mg (or 400 mg) lesinurad to 80 mg febuxostat increased the percentage of patients experiencing hyperuricosuria from 0% to 1.4% (or 3.1%). In overproducers, restarting ULTs following drug holidays of more than 5 days leads to over 60% of patients experiencing hyperuricosuria. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal medication adherence may compromise the safety and efficacy of mono- and dual-ULTs, especially in patients with gout resulting from an overproduction of uric acid. Clinicians and pharmacists should consider counselling patients with respect to the risks associated with partial adherence, and offer interventions to improve adherence or tailor treatments, where appropriate.

Impact of Non-Adherence and Flare Resolution on the Cost-Effectiveness of Treatments for Gout: Application of a Linked Pharmacometric/Pharmacoeconomic Model.

BACKGROUND: Dual urate-lowering therapy (ULT) with lesinurad in combination with either allopurinol or febuxostat is an option for patients with gout unsuccessfully treated on either monotherapy. Treatment failure is often a result of poor medication adherence. Imperfect adherence in clinical trials may lead to biased estimates of treatment effect and confound the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of varying medication adherence on the cost effectiveness of lesinurad dual therapy and estimate the value-based price of lesinurad at which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is equal to £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). METHODS: Treatment effect was simulated using published pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models and scenarios representing adherence in clinical trials, routine practice, and perfect use. The subsequent cost and health impacts, over the lifetime of a patient cohort, were estimated using a bespoke pharmacoeconomic model. RESULTS: The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing lesinurad dual ULT with monotherapy ranged from £39,184 to £78,350/QALY gained using allopurinol and £31,901 to £124,212/QALY gained using febuxostat, depending on the assumed medication adherence. Results assuming perfect medication adherence imply a per-quarter value-based price of lesinurad of £45.14 when used in dual ULT compared with allopurinol alone and £57.75 compared with febuxostat alone, falling to £25.41 and £3.49, respectively, in simulations of worsening medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated value-based prices of lesinurad only exceeded that which has been proposed in the United Kingdom when assuming both perfect drug adherence and the eradication of gout flares in sustained treatment responders.

The Type and Impact of Evidence Review Group Exploratory Analyses in the NICE Single Technology Appraisal Process.

BACKGROUND: As part of the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) single technology appraisal process, independent evidence review groups (ERGs) critically appraise a company's submission relating to a specific technology and indication. OBJECTIVES: To explore the type of additional exploratory analyses conducted by ERGs and their impact on the recommendations made by NICE. METHODS: The 100 most recently completed single technology appraisals with published guidance were selected for inclusion. A content analysis of relevant documents was undertaken to identify and extract relevant data, and narrative synthesis was used to rationalize and present these data. RESULTS: The types of exploratory analysis conducted in relation to companies' models were fixing errors, addressing violations, addressing matters of judgment, and the provision of a new, ERG-preferred base case. Ninety-three of the 100 ERG reports contained at least one of these analyses. The most frequently reported type of analysis in these 93 ERG reports related to the category "Matters of judgment," which was reported in 83 reports (89%). At least one of the exploratory analyses conducted and reported by an ERG is mentioned in 97% of NICE appraisal consultation documents and 94% of NICE final appraisal determinations, and had a clear influence on recommendations in 72% of appraisal consultation documents and 47% of final appraisal determinations. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the additional analyses undertaken by ERGs in the appraisal of company submissions are highly influential in the policy-making and decision-making process.

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on different income and socioeconomic groups: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Several countries are considering a minimum price policy for alcohol, but concerns exist about the potential effects on drinkers with low incomes. We aimed to assess the effect of a £0·45 minimum unit price (1 unit is 8 g/10 mL ethanol) in England across the income and socioeconomic distributions. METHODS: We used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) version 2.6, a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model, to assess effects of a minimum unit price policy. SAPM accounts for alcohol purchasing and consumption preferences for population subgroups including income and socioeconomic groups. Purchasing preferences are regarded as the types and volumes of alcohol beverages, prices paid, and the balance between on-trade (eg, bars) and off-trade (eg, shops). We estimated price elasticities from 9 years of survey data and did sensitivity analyses with alternative elasticities. We assessed effects of the policy on moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers, split into three socioeconomic groups (living in routine or manual households, intermediate households, and managerial or professional households). We examined policy effects on alcohol consumption, spending, rates of alcohol-related health harm, and opportunity costs associated with that harm. Rates of harm and costs were estimated for a 10 year period after policy implementation. We adjusted baseline rates of mortality and morbidity to account for differential risk between socioeconomic groups. FINDINGS: Overall, a minimum unit price of £0.45 led to an immediate reduction in consumption of 1.6% (-11.7 units per drinker per year) in our model. Moderate drinkers were least affected in terms of consumption (-3.8 units per drinker per year for the lowest income quintile vs 0.8 units increase for the highest income quintile) and spending (increase in spending of £0.04 vs £1.86 per year). The greatest behavioural changes occurred in harmful drinkers (change in consumption of -3.7% or -138.2 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £4.01), especially in the lowest income quintile (-7.6% or -299.8 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £34.63) compared with the highest income quintile (-1.0% or -34.3 units, with an increase in spending of £16.35). Estimated health benefits from the policy were also unequally distributed. Individuals in the lowest socioeconomic group (living in routine or manual worker households and comprising 41.7% of the sample population) would accrue 81.8% of reductions in premature deaths and 87.1% of gains in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. INTERPRETATION: Irrespective of income, moderate drinkers were little affected by a minimum unit price of £0.45 in our model, with the greatest effects noted for harmful drinkers. Because harmful drinkers on low incomes purchase more alcohol at less than the minimum unit price threshold compared with other groups, they would be affected most by this policy. Large reductions in consumption in this group would however coincide with substantial health gains in terms of morbidity and mortality related to reduced alcohol consumption. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council (grant G1000043).

The Difference Method Approach for Sampling Order Constrained Parameters: An Improved Implementation and Important Limitations.

A health economic model may include a set of related inputs whose true values are uncertain, but that can be assumed to follow a logical order. Various approaches are available for performing probabilistic sensitivity analysis while preserving the order constraint, one such approach is known as the difference method. The difference method approach appears to have many of the required properties, has been endorsed by good practice guidelines, and is likely to prove a popular approach. However, the proposed implementation of the difference method approach is cumbersome, requiring numerical estimation, which might present a barrier to its adoption. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the method can always be applied to three or more model inputs and whether it is unbiased across all possible input values. This study has investigated these three issues for ordered inputs bounded between 0 and 1. An analytic solution is given that allows for more straightforward and compact implementation. The difference method approach cannot always be applied to a set of three or more model inputs, and this depends on the relative size of the variances of the logit-transformed Beta distributions fitted to each variable. The approach can also produce samples with biased means and variances under certain combinations of input means and variances. It is recommended that the difference method approach be used where appropriate; however, an understanding of its limitations is necessary to identify such cases.

Cost-Effectiveness of Vedolizumab as a First-Line Advanced Therapy Versus Adalimumab Treatment Sequences for Ulcerative Colitis in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Today, there are many treatment options available for the management of ulcerative colitis, creating challenges in selecting the most efficacious and cost-effective treatment sequences. Treatments in the anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) therapeutic class, as well as vedolizumab, are widely used and endorsed as first-line options according to treatment guidelines. The aim of this study was to compare treatment sequences involving vedolizumab and the anti-TNFα treatment adalimumab in terms of cost-effectiveness in the treatment of moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis in Italy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model comparing treatment sequences within the Italian National Health Service in terms of costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with a lifetime horizon was developed. The analysis focused on the relative positioning of vedolizumab and adalimumab, leveraging the results of the landmark head-to-head VARSITY clinical trial as key inputs. The robustness of the results was investigated through a range of sensitivity and scenario analyses. RESULTS: The strategy of vedolizumab as a first-line advanced therapy followed by adalimumab was associated with higher costs and health benefits compared with first-line adalimumab followed by vedolizumab. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €16,146/QALY, which was found to be robust to changes to inputs associated with areas of high uncertainty. CONCLUSION: This economic evaluation estimated a 94% probability that vedolizumab as a first-line advanced therapy is cost-effective at a threshold of €33,004/QALY when compared with first-line adalimumab sequences. Using clinical trial evidence to inform the efficacy of second-line treatments estimated that the effectiveness of anti-TNFα treatments is not substantially reduced by vedolizumab exposure.

Early generation of a precursor CD8 T cell that can adapt to acute or chronic viral infection.

Virus specific PD-1+ TCF-1+ TOX+ stem-like CD8+ T cells are essential for maintaining T cell responses during chronic infection and are also critical for PD-1 directed immunotherapy. In this study we have used the mouse model of chronic LCMV infection to examine when these virus specific stem-like CD8+ T cells are generated during the course of chronic infection and what is the role of antigen in maintaining the stem-like program. We found that these stem-like CD8+ T cells are generated early (day 5) during chronic infection and that antigen is essential for maintaining their stem-like program. This early generation of stem-like CD8+ T cells suggested that the fate commitment to this cell population was agnostic to the eventual outcome of infection and the immune system prepares a priori for a potential chronic infection. Indeed, we found that an identical virus specific stem-cell like CD8+ T cell population was also generated during acute LCMV infection but these cells were lost once the virus was cleared. To determine the fate of these early PD-1+TCF-1+TOX+ stem-like CD8+ T cells that are generated during both acute and chronic LCMV infection we set up two reciprocal adoptive transfer experiments. In the first experiment we transferred day 5 stem-like CD8+ T cells from chronically infected into acutely infected mice and examined their differentiation after viral clearance. We found that these early stem-like CD8+ T cells downregulated canonical markers of the chronic stem-like CD8+ T cells and expressed markers (CD127 and CD62L) associated with central memory CD8+ T cells. In the second experiment, we transferred day 5 stem-like cells from acutely infected mice into chronically infected mice and found that these CD8+ T cells could function like resource cells after transfer into a chronic environment by generating effector CD8+ T cells in both lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues while also maintaining the number of stem-like CD8+ T cells. These findings provide insight into the generation and maintenance of virus specific stem-like CD8+ T cells that play a critical role in chronic viral infection. In particular, our study highlights the early generation of stem-like CD8+ T cells and their ability to adapt to either an acute or chronic infection. These findings are of broad significance since these novel stem-like CD8+ T cells play an important role in not only viral infections but also in cancer and autoimmunity.

Adjusting for unrecorded consumption in survey and per capita sales data: quantification of impact on gender- and age-specific alcohol-attributable fractions for oral and pharyngeal cancers in Great Britain.

AIMS: Large discrepancies are typically found between per capita alcohol consumption estimated via survey data compared with sales, excise or production figures. This may lead to significant inaccuracies when calculating levels of alcohol-attributable harms. Using British data, we demonstrate an approach to adjusting survey data to give more accurate estimates of per capita alcohol consumption. METHODS: First, sales and survey data are adjusted to account for potential biases (e.g. self-pouring, under-sampled populations) using evidence from external data sources. Secondly, survey and sales data are aligned using different implementations of Rehm et al.'s method [in (2010) Statistical modeling of volume of alcohol exposure for epidemiological studies of population health: the US example. Pop Health Metrics 8, 1-12]. Thirdly, the impact of our approaches is tested by using our revised survey dataset to calculate alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) for oral and pharyngeal cancers. RESULTS: British sales data under-estimate per capita consumption by 8%, primarily due to illicit alcohol. Adjustments to survey data increase per capita consumption estimates by 35%, primarily due to under-sampling of dependent drinkers and under-estimation of home-poured spirits volumes. Before aligning sales and survey data, the revised survey estimate remains 22% lower than the revised sales estimate. Revised AAFs for oral and pharyngeal cancers are substantially larger with our preferred method for aligning data sources, yielding increases in an AAF from the original survey dataset of 0.47-0.60 (males) and 0.28-0.35 (females). CONCLUSION: It is possible to use external data sources to adjust survey data to reduce the under-estimation of alcohol consumption and then account for residual under-estimation using a statistical calibration technique. These revisions lead to markedly higher estimated levels of alcohol-attributable harm.

Platinum-based chemotherapy attenuates the effector response of CD8 T cells to concomitant PD-1 blockade.

PURPOSE: Combination of chemotherapy (CT) with programmed cell death (PD)-1 blockade is a front-line treatment for lung cancer. However, it remains unknown whether and how CT affects the response of exhausted CD8 T cells to PD-1 blockade. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We used the well-established mouse model of T cell exhaustion with chronic lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection to assess the effect of CT (cisplatin+pemetrexed) on T cell response to PD-1 blockade, in the absence of the impact of CT on antigen release and presentation observed in tumor models. RESULTS: When concomitantly administered with PD-1 blockade, CT affected the differentiation path of LCMV-specific CD8 T cells from stem-like to transitory effector cells, thereby reducing their expansion and production of interferon (IFN)-γ. After combination treatment, these restrained effector responses resulted in impaired viral control, compared to PD-1 blockade alone. The sequential combination strategy, where PD-1 blockade followed CT, proved to be superior to the concomitant combination, preserving the proliferative response of exhausted CD8 T cells to PD-1 blockade. Our findings suggest that the stem-like CD8 T cells themselves are relatively unaffected by CT partly because they are quiescent and maintained by slow self-renewal at the steady state. However, upon the proliferative burst mediated by PD-1 blockade, the accelerated differentiation and self-renewal of stem-like cells may be curbed by concomitant CT, ultimately resulting in impaired overall CD8 T cell effector functions. CONCLUSIONS: In a translational context, we provide a proof-of-concept to consider optimizing the timing of chemo-immunotherapy strategies for improved CD8 T cell functions.

Combining Model-Based Clinical Trial Simulation, Pharmacoeconomics, and Value of Information to Optimize Trial Design.

The Bayesian decision-analytic approach to trial design uses prior distributions for treatment effects, updated with likelihoods for proposed trial data. Prior distributions for treatment effects based on previous trial results risks sample selection bias and difficulties when a proposed trial differs in terms of patient characteristics, medication adherence, or treatment doses and regimens. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of using pharmacometric-based clinical trial simulation (CTS) to generate prior distributions for use in Bayesian decision-theoretic trial design. The methods consisted of four principal stages: a CTS to predict the distribution of treatment response for a range of trial designs; Bayesian updating for a proposed sample size; a pharmacoeconomic model to represent the perspective of a reimbursement authority in which price is contingent on trial outcome; and a model of the pharmaceutical company return on investment linking drug prices to sales revenue. We used a case study of febuxostat versus allopurinol for the treatment of hyperuricemia in patients with gout. Trial design scenarios studied included alternative treatment doses, inclusion criteria, input uncertainty, and sample size. Optimal trial sample sizes varied depending on the uncertainty of model inputs, trial inclusion criteria, and treatment doses. This interdisciplinary framework for trial design and sample size calculation may have value in supporting decisions during later phases of drug development and in identifying costly sources of uncertainty, and thus inform future research and development strategies.

Linked Pharmacometric-Pharmacoeconomic Modeling and Simulation in Clinical Drug Development.

Market access and pricing of pharmaceuticals are increasingly contingent on the ability to demonstrate comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. As such, it is widely recognized that predictions of the economic potential of drug candidates in development could inform decisions across the product life cycle. This may be challenging when safety and efficacy profiles in terms of the relevant clinical outcomes are unknown or highly uncertain early in product development. Linking pharmacometrics and pharmacoeconomics, such that outputs from pharmacometric models serve as inputs to pharmacoeconomic models, may provide a framework for extrapolating from early-phase studies to predict economic outcomes and characterize decision uncertainty. This article reviews the published studies that have implemented this methodology and used simulation to inform drug development decisions and/or to optimize the use of drug treatments. Some of the key practical issues involved in linking pharmacometrics and pharmacoeconomics, including the choice of final outcome measures, methods of incorporating evidence on comparator treatments, approaches to handling multiple intermediate end points, approaches to quantifying uncertainty, and issues of model validation are also discussed. Finally, we have considered the potential barriers that may have limited the adoption of this methodology and suggest that closer alignment between the disciplines of clinical pharmacology, pharmacometrics, and pharmacoeconomics, may help to realize the potential benefits associated with linked pharmacometric-pharmacoeconomic modeling and simulation.

Surgical microdiscectomy versus transforaminal epidural steroid injection in patients with sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc (NERVES): a phase 3, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The optimal invasive treatment for sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc remains controversial, with a paucity of evidence for use of non-surgical treatments such as transforaminal epidural steroid injection (TFESI) over surgical microdiscectomy. We aimed to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of these options for management of radicular pain secondary to herniated lumbar disc. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled trial at 11 spinal units across the UK. Eligible patients were aged 16-65 years, had MRI-confirmed non-emergency sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc with symptom duration between 6 weeks and 12 months, and had leg pain that was not responsive to non-invasive management. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either TFESI or surgical microdiscectomy by an online randomisation system that was stratified by centre with random permuted blocks. The primary outcome was Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODQ) score at 18 weeks. All randomly assigned participants who completed a valid ODQ at baseline and at 18 weeks were included in the analysis. Safety analysis included all treated participants. Cost-effectiveness was estimated from the EuroQol-5D-5L, Hospital Episode Statistics, medication usage, and self-reported resource-use data. This trial was registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN04820368, and EudraCT, number 2014-002751-25. FINDINGS: Between March 6, 2015, and Dec 21, 2017, 163 (15%) of 1055 screened patients were enrolled, with 80 participants (49%) randomly assigned to the TFESI group and 83 participants (51%) to the surgery group. At week 18, ODQ scores were 30·02 (SD 24·38) for 63 assessed patients in the TFESI group and 22·30 (19·83) for 61 assessed patients in the surgery group. Mean improvement was 24·52 points (18·89) for the TFESI group and 26·74 points (21·35) for the surgery group, with an estimated treatment difference of -4·25 (95% CI -11·09 to 2·59; p=0·22). There were four serious adverse events in four participants associated with surgery, and none with TFESI. Compared with TFESI, surgery had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £38 737 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, and a 0·17 probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. INTERPRETATION: For patients with sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc, with symptom duration of up to 12 months, TFESI should be considered as a first invasive treatment option. Surgery is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to TFESI. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK.