Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

Transdermal oestradiol for androgen suppression in prostate cancer: long-term cardiovascular outcomes from the randomised Prostate Adenocarcinoma Transcutaneous Hormone (PATCH) trial programme.

BACKGROUND: Androgen suppression is a central component of prostate cancer management but causes substantial long-term toxicity. Transdermal administration of oestradiol (tE2) circumvents first-pass hepatic metabolism and, therefore, should avoid the cardiovascular toxicity seen with oral oestrogen and the oestrogen-depletion effects seen with luteinising hormone releasing hormone agonists (LHRHa). We present long-term cardiovascular follow-up data from the Prostate Adenocarcinoma Transcutaneous Hormone (PATCH) trial programme. METHODS: PATCH is a seamless phase 2/3, randomised, multicentre trial programme at 52 study sites in the UK. Men with locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer were randomly allocated (1:2 from August, 2007 then 1:1 from February, 2011) to either LHRHa according to local practice or tE2 patches (four 100 µg patches per 24 h, changed twice weekly, reducing to three patches twice weekly if castrate at 4 weeks [defined as testosterone ≤1·7 nmol/L]). Randomisation was done using a computer-based minimisation algorithm and was stratified by several factors, including disease stage, age, smoking status, and family history of cardiac disease. The primary outcome of this analysis was cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Cardiovascular events, including heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, thromboembolic stroke, and other thromboembolic events, were confirmed using predefined criteria and source data. Sudden or unexpected deaths were attributed to a cardiovascular category if a confirmatory post-mortem report was available and as other relevant events if no post-mortem report was available. PATCH is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN70406718; the study is ongoing and adaptive. FINDINGS: Between Aug 14, 2007, and July 30, 2019, 1694 men were randomly allocated either LHRHa (n=790) or tE2 patches (n=904). Overall, median follow-up was 3·9 (IQR 2·4-7·0) years. Respective castration rates at 1 month and 3 months were 65% and 93% among patients assigned LHRHa and 83% and 93% among those allocated tE2. 157 events from 145 men met predefined cardiovascular criteria, with a further ten sudden deaths with no post-mortem report (total 167 events in 153 men). 26 (2%) of 1694 patients had fatal cardiovascular events, 15 (2%) of 790 assigned LHRHa and 11 (1%) of 904 allocated tE2. The time to first cardiovascular event did not differ between treatments (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·80-1·53; p=0·54 [including sudden deaths without post-mortem report]; 1·20, 0·86-1·68; p=0·29 [confirmed group only]). 30 (34%) of 89 cardiovascular events in patients assigned tE2 occurred more than 3 months after tE2 was stopped or changed to LHRHa. The most frequent adverse events were gynaecomastia (all grades), with 279 (38%) events in 730 patients who received LHRHa versus 690 (86%) in 807 patients who received tE2 (p<0·0001) and hot flushes (all grades) in 628 (86%) of those who received LHRHa versus 280 (35%) who received tE2 (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Long-term data comparing tE2 patches with LHRHa show no evidence of a difference between treatments in cardiovascular mortality or morbidity. Oestrogens administered transdermally should be reconsidered for androgen suppression in the management of prostate cancer. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London.

Real-world uptake, safety profile and outcomes of docetaxel in newly diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the uptake, safety and efficacy of docetaxel chemotherapy in hormone-naïve metastatic prostate cancer (mPC) in the first year of use outside of a clinical trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients in the West of Scotland Cancer Network with newly diagnosed mPC were identified from the regional multidisciplinary team meetings and their treatment details were collected from electronic patient records. The rate of febrile neutropenia, hospitalisations, time to progression, and overall survival were compared between those patients who received docetaxel and androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), or ADT alone using survival analysis. RESULTS: Of the 270 eligible patients, 103 received docetaxel (38.1%). 35 patients (34%) were hospitalised and there were 17 episodes of febrile neutropenia (16.5%). Two patients (1.9%) died within 30 days of chemotherapy. Patients who received ADT alone had an increased risk of progression (hazard ratio [HR] 2.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-3.25; log-rank test, P = 0.002) and had an increased risk of death (HR 5.88, 95% CI: 2.52-13.72; log-rank test, P = 0.001) compared to the docetaxel group. The risk of febrile neutropenia was nine-times greater if chemotherapy was started within 3 weeks of ADT initiation (95% CI: 1.22-77.72; P = 0.032). CONCLUSION: Docetaxel chemotherapy in hormone-naïve mPC has significant toxicities, but has a similar effect on time to progression and overall survival as seen in randomised trials. Chemotherapy should be started at ≥3 weeks after ADT.

Comparing importance and performance from a patient perspective in English general practice: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Patient experience and satisfaction are important indicators of quality in health care. Little is known about where to prioritize efforts to improve patient satisfaction. OBJECTIVES: To investigate patient satisfaction with primary care, as part of the Quality and Costs of Primary Care in Europe study in England, identifying areas where improvements could be made from patients' perspectives. METHODS: We conducted a questionnaire survey of general practice patients in three English regions. Patient Values questionnaires assessed what patients thought was important, and Patient Experience questionnaires rated performance of primary care. Fifteen attributes of care were compared using Importance Performance Analysis, a method that simultaneously represents data on importance and performance of a service, enabling identification of its strengths and weaknesses. RESULTS: Patients rated both 'relational' and 'functional' aspects of care as important. Satisfaction with general practice could be improved by concentrating on specific aspects of access (ensuring that patients know how to access out-of-hours services and find it easy to get an appointment), and one aspect of empowerment (after their visit, patients feel able to cope better with their health problem/illness). However, for other attributes (e.g. proximity of the practice to a patient's house or, a short waiting time when contacting the practice), investing additional resources is not likely to increase patient satisfaction. CONCLUSION: Attributes needing most improvement concerned access to primary care and patient empowerment. More research is needed to identify how to improve access without generating unnecessary additional demand or compromising continuity of care.

Modulation by caspases of tumor necrosis factor-stimulated c-Jun N-terminal kinase activation but not nuclear factor-kappaB signaling.

Tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF) is capable of activating many downstream signaling molecules via its two receptors TNFR1 and TNFR2. TNF can stimulate the proinflammatory transcription factor nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-kappaB) as well as the stress induced kinase c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) through mechanisms that are not fully delineated. NF-kappaB becomes activated mainly through TNFR1 while JNK can be stimulated by either TNF receptor subtype. TNF can also induce apoptosis within cells due to its ability to recruit procaspase-8 to TNFR1, which in turn induces the caspase proteolytic cascade. We provide evidence here in human cells, that TNF-induced JNK activation is under the influence of caspases while NF-kappaB activity is not. By using pharmacological inhibitors of caspases, we have shown that JNK activity is reduced following caspase inhibition, especially when caspase-3 is targeted. NF-kappaB activity, as assessed by IkappaBalpha or IkappaBbeta degradation, electrophoretic mobility shift assay and NF-kappaB gene reporter assays, is shown to be unaffected by caspase inhibition. Therefore, downstream TNF receptor signaling events are differentially influenced by caspases.