Economic burden of tobacco use in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The lack of reliable tobacco healthcare and economic cost estimates leaves the tobacco industry undertaxed and thriving in Pakistan and makes the country as one of the top tobacco-consuming nations. To facilitate effective tobacco tax policymaking, this study estimates the economic cost of smoking-attributable diseases and deaths in Pakistan. METHODS: A nationally representative sample survey of 13 000 households was administered to gather the data required to estimate different cost components of smoking-attributable diseases through the prevalence-based approach. FINDINGS: The total smoking-attributable economic cost of all diseases and deaths in Pakistan in the year 2018-2019 for persons aged 35 years or older is 615.07 billion ($3.85 billion). Similarly, three major diseases, namely cancer, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease, along with associated deaths, cost the nation PKR437.8 billion ($2.7 billion) of which 77% is the indirect cost. The three major diseases make 71% of the total estimated cost, nearly two-thirds of which is borne by rural residents, nine-tenth by males and more than four-fifths by the citizens in the 35-64 years age group. CONCLUSION: The total annual economic costs of all smoking-attributable diseases and deaths and those of the three major diseases equal 1.6% and 1.15% of Pakistan's gross domestic product, respectively. The tax contribution of tobacco sector is merely 20% of the total estimated cost. The finding of huge economic and health costs of smoking makes a convincing case for policymakers to realise the true value of the industry's contribution and raise tobacco taxes to the level of full cost recovery.

Estimating the price elasticity for cigarette and chewed tobacco in Pakistan: evidence from microlevel data.

BACKGROUND: While there is a large literature on the magnitude of price elasticity of cigarette demand, less is known about the same for chewed tobacco. Moreover, the studies on cigarette demand in Pakistan tend to ignore the heterogeneity in the smoking behaviour. This study estimates price elasticity for cigarette and chewed tobacco demand across different income groups, provinces and regions; and use these coefficients for simulating Pakistan's tax policy and its impact on revenue and health outcomes. METHOD: Deaton model was applied on the 2015-2016 Household Integrated Income and Consumption Survey dataset to estimate price elasticities of different tobacco products. RESULTS: The demand for cigarettes is unitary elastic (-1.06), suggesting that a 1% increase in cigarette price would reduce its consumption by 1.06%. On the other hand, the demand for chewed tobacco is relatively inelastic (-0.55). Provincially, the own-price elasticity of cigarettes is negative and significant for all but Kyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province; whereas that of the chewed tobacco is negative and significant only for KP and Balochistan. Besides, the price elasticity of demand for both tobacco products is negative and significant only for lower income group and the rural region. The tax simulations favour a two-tiered tax system over the existing three-tiered system as the former will bring significantly better tax revenue and health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: While confirming the effectiveness of tax policies in curbing tobacco use, this study concludes that higher tobacco taxes could increase tax revenue and improve public health in Pakistan.

Research on food loss and waste in the Western Balkans: A systematic review.

Food losses and waste (FLW) is considered a critical issue in the ongoing debate on the sustainability of agri-food systems. However, the scholarly literature on FLW is still geographically-biased, with more attention devoted to developed countries, even in Europe. In this context, this article analyses the state of research on FLW in the Western Balkan region (viz. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia). A search performed in October 2021 on the Web of Science database returned 34 documents, and 21 eligible ones were included in the systematic review. The topical analysis of the literature addressed causes of FLW, stages of the food supply chain, extent and magnitude of FLW, FLW and food security, economic and environmental impacts of FLW, and food waste (FW) management strategies. A central finding was the scarcity of data on FW in the Western Balkans. Moreover, the literature focused on FW at the consumer level, while food loss at other stages of the food chain was generally overlooked. There is a lack of comprehensive analyses of the economic and environmental impacts of FLW as well as its implications in terms of food and nutrition security. The quantification of FLW is generally inaccurate and based on estimates and self-reported data. The literature focuses on FW reuse and recycling (e.g., energy, compost) while other management strategies (e.g., reduction/prevention, redistribution) are rarely addressed. However, the results indicated that consumers in the Western Balkans pay attention to the FW issue, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is an encouraging sign that can be exploited in awareness-raising campaigns and education activities. Meanwhile, research on FLW in the Western Balkans is highly needed to fill the identified knowledge gap and provide evidence to policies dealing with the transition to sustainable food systems in the region.

A time series forecasting analysis of overall and sector-based natural gas demand: a developing South Asian economy case.

Pakistan is developing South Asian country which is currently considering alternative energy sources including coal, solar, compressed natural gas, and wind energy to cope with the worst energy crisis in its history. Moreover, the policy promotion of compressed natural gas especially in the transport sector has raised concerns about the demand management of natural gas to avoid future shortages and ensure sustainable use of this precious non-renewable source of energy. Against this background, this study aimed to forecast natural gas demand in Pakistan for the 2016-2030 period by applying relevant univariate time series econometric methods. Apart from forecasting the overall natural gas demand, the forecasting analysis is also conducted for natural gas demand in Pakistan's total natural gas consumption and also for natural gas consumption across the household, industrial, commercial, transport, fertilizer production, power generation, and cement production sectors. Overall, the findings revealed that ARIMA is the appropriate model for forecasting gas consumption in Pakistan. Further, the growth of increase in the level of compressed natural gas consumption in the household sector is more as compared to all other sectors of the economy up to the year 2030. The key findings show that (a) natural gas consumption is likely to grow with time, (b) mixed projection trends are observed for the overall natural gas consumption and other sector-based natural gas consumption trends, and (c) the difference between natural gas consumption and production in Pakistan is likely to grow leading to 2030. As part of the policy recommendation in line with the findings, policymakers in Pakistan should increase the availability of natural gas, particularly in sectors where its consumption is likely to be declining. In addition, more proactive measures should be undertaken to explore the existing natural gas reserves in the long run while also importing natural gas from the neighboring nations in the short run. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan should seriously consider strategizing the development of the nation's compressed natural gas sector.

The Indus irrigation system, natural resources, and community occupational quality in the delta region of Pakistan.

This study examines the impact of an elaborated irrigation system on the natural resources and society in the deltaic part of the Indus River in Pakistan. Time series information was collected to analyze the ecological and natural resource dynamics, and their impacts on the structure and quality of the occupations of the people in the Indus delta during pre- and post-irrigation system development periods. The information was collected through literature review, reconnaissance, structured questionnaire survey, focus group discussions, and interviews. The findings revealed that the expansion of the irrigation system and the resulting reduction in the downstream flow had their differential impacts on the various segments of downstream ecology and society. Some of the resources, for example the agricultural mudflats have been adversely affected due to the accelerated seawater intrusion that severely impinged on the paddy farms. On the other natural resources like mangroves, the impacts had been both negative and positive. On one hand, the diversity of the mangroves species had deteriorated while on other hand, the mangroves have benefited from such development because of the alleviated pressure of camel grazing as a result of the occupational change on the part of the camel herders. Furthermore, changes in the hydrological regimes had forced the paddy farmers and camel herders to switch to fishing as an alternative source of employment and income. Considering that currently about 87% people are already engaged primarily in marine fishery, this scenario is threatening the sustainability of the fishery resources as well as the livelihoods of all, the traditional and converted fishermen. The findings of the study are therefore meant to advocate the different treatments which should be accorded to the various segments of the downstream ecology and society during the planning of any remedial irrigation projects in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of the previous irrigation development strategies and of any water resources development to be carried out in the future.