International multicenter validation of GES score for HCC risk stratification in chronic hepatitis C patients.

We have recently demonstrated the ability of a simple predictive model (GES) score to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after using direct-acting antivirals. However, our results were restricted to Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4. Therefore, we studied a large, independent cohort of multiethnic populations through our international collaborative activity. Depending on their GES scores, patients are stratified into low risk (≤ 6/12.5), intermediate risk (> 6-7.5/12.5), and high risk (> 7.5/12.5) for HCC. A total of 12,038 patients with chronic HCV were analyzed in this study, of whom 11,202 were recruited from 54 centers in France, Japan, India, the U.S., and Spain, and the remaining 836 were selected from the Gilead-sponsored randomized controlled trial conducted across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. Descriptive statistics and log-rank tests. The performance of the GES score was evaluated using Harrell's C-index (HCI). The GES score proved successful at stratifying all patients into 3 risk groups, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk. It also displayed significant predictive value for HCC development in all participants (p < .0001), with HCI ranging from 0.55 to 0.76 among all cohorts after adjusting for HCV genotypes and patient ethnicities. The GES score can be used to stratify HCV patients into 3 categories of risk for HCC, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, irrespective of their ethnicities or HCV genotypes. This international multicenter validation may allow the use of GES score in individualized HCC risk-based surveillance programs.

Development and multicenter validation of FIB-6: A novel, machine learning, simple bedside score to rule out liver cirrhosis and compensated advanced chronic liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive tests (NITs), such as Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), developed using classical statistical methods, are increasingly used for determining liver fibrosis stages and recommended in treatment guidelines replacing the liver biopsy. Application of conventional cutoffs of FIB-4 and APRI resulted in high rates of misclassification of fibrosis stages. AIM: There is an unmet need for more accurate NITs that can overcome the limitations of FIB-4 and APRI. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Machine learning with the random forest algorithm was used to develop a non-invasive index using retrospective data of 7238 patients with biopsy-proven chronic hepatitis C from two centers in Egypt; derivation dataset (n = 1821) and validation set in the second center (n = 5417). Receiver operator curve analysis was used to define cutoffs for different stages of fibrosis. Performance of the new score was externally validated in cohorts from two other sites in Egypt (n = 560) and seven different countries (n = 1317). Fibrosis stages were determined using the METAVIR score. Results were also compared with three established tools (FIB-4, APRI, and the aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio [AAR]). RESULTS: Age in addition to readily available laboratory parameters such as aspartate, and alanine aminotransferases, alkaline phosphatase, albumin (g/dl), and platelet count (/cm3 ) correlated with the biopsy-derived stage of liver fibrosis in the derivation cohort and were used to construct the model for predicting the fibrosis stage by applying the random forest algorithm, resulting in an FIB-6 index, which can be calculated easily at http://fib6.elriah.info. Application of the cutoff values derived from the derivation group on the validation groups yielded very good performance in ruling out cirrhosis (negative predictive value [NPV] = 97.7%), compensated advance liver disease (NPV = 90.2%), and significant fibrosis (NPV = 65.7%). In the external validation groups from different countries, FIB-6 demonstrated higher sensitivity and NPV than FIB-4, APRI, and AAR. CONCLUSION: FIB-6 score is a non-invasive, simple, and accurate test for ruling out liver cirrhosis and compensated advance liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C and performs better than APRI, FIB-4, and AAR.

Reduced incidence of hepatitis C in 9 villages in rural Egypt: Progress towards national elimination goals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt has a major HCV burden and a well established treatment programme, with an ambitious goal of HCV elimination. Our aim was to assess the impact of a comprehensive HCV prevention, test and treat programme on the incidence of new HCV infections in 9 villages in rural Egypt. METHODS: An HCV "educate, test and treat" project was implemented in 73 villages across 7 governorates in Egypt between 06/2015 and 06/2018. In 2018, in 9 of the villages we re-tested individuals who originally tested HCV antibody (HCV-Ab) and HBsAg negative using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs); confirmatory HCV RNA testing was performed for positive cases. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years (py) was calculated, and risk factors for incident HCV infections assessed through an interviewer-administered questionnaire in 1:3 age- and gender-matched cases and controls. RESULTS: Out of 20,490 individuals who originally tested HCV-Ab negative in the 9 villages during the 2015-2016 implementation of the "educate, test and treat" programme, 19,816 (96.7%) were re-tested in 2018. Over a median of 2.4 years (IQR 2.1-2.7), there were 19 new HCV infections all of which were HCV RNA positive (incidence rate 0.37/1,000 py) (95% CI 0.24-0.59). Compared to a previous estimate of incidence in the Nile Delta region (2.4/1,000 py) from 2006, there was a substantial reduction in overall incidence of new HCV infections. Exposures through surgery (odds ratio 51; 95% CI 3.5-740.1) and dental procedures (odds ratio 23.8; 95% CI 2.9-194.9) were significant independent predictors of incident infections. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show a substantial reduction in incidence of new HCV infections in a sample of the general population in Egypt following attainment of high testing and treatment coverage. New infections were significantly associated with healthcare-associated exposures. LAY SUMMARY: Egypt has a major national HCV testing and treatment programme with the goal of eliminating HCV infection. We assessed the impact of a comprehensive HCV prevention, test and treat programme in 73 villages that achieved high coverage of testing and treatment on the subsequent incidence of new HCV infections in nine of the villages. We re-tested people who were previously HCV antibody negative and found that the rate of new HCV infections was greatly reduced compared to previous estimates. We also found that exposure through surgery and dental procedures were associated with these new infections. This highlights the importance of continued strengthening of infection control and prevention measures, alongside treatment scale-up.

Development of a simple dynamic algorithm for individualized hepatocellular carcinoma risk-based surveillance using pre- and post-treatment general evaluation score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: With the growing number of treated hepatitis C patients, the current 'one-size-fits-all' hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance strategies for patients with advanced fibrosis represents a great burden on healthcare systems. An individualized HCC risk strategy incorporates the dynamic changes of HCC risk are lacking. METHODS: This single-centre observational study included 3075 patients, with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) who achieved SVR following DAAs at Egyptian Liver research institute and hospital (ELRIAH) with follow-up period (range 6-72 months). The performance of a recently developed General Evaluation Score (GES) HCC risk stratification score was calculated pre- and post-treatment using Harrell's c statistic. Times to HCC and cumulative incidences were calculated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test. RESULTS: Pre-treatment GES score stratified patients into low (60.4%), intermediate (23.4%), and (16.2%) high-risk score where 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.66%, 4.45% and 7.64%, respectively. Harrell's c statistic was 0.801. Post-treatment GES score stratified patients into low (57.4%), intermediate (30.7%) and (11.9%) high-risk score where 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.35%, 3.49% and 11.09% respectively. The cumulative HCC incidence increased significantly with higher scores (P < .001). Harrell's c statistic was 0.818. Using pre- and post-treatment GES score, GES algorithm was developed with higher predictive value. The cumulative HCC incidence increased significantly with higher scores (P < .001). Harrell's c statistic was 0.832. CONCLUSION: A dynamic algorithm incorporating both pre- and post-GES scores have better performance and predictive value compared with only pre-treatment assessments. The proposed algorithm would help to stratify those who need intensive or being excluded from screening.

An educate, test and treat model towards elimination of hepatitis C infection in Egypt: Feasibility and effectiveness in 73 villages.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt has one of the highest burdens of HCV infection worldwide. It has a large treatment programme, but reaching rural communities represents a major challenge. We report on the feasibility and effectiveness of a comprehensive community-based HCV prevention, testing and treatment model whose goal was to eliminate infection from all adult villagers. METHODS: An HCV "educate, test and treat" programme was implemented in 73 villages across 7 governorates in Egypt between 06/2015 and 06/2018. The programme model comprised community mobilisation facilitated by a network of village promoters to support the education, testing and treatment of patients, as well as fundraising in the local community. Comprehensive testing, linkage to care and treatment were provided for all eligible villagers aged 12 to 80 years. RESULTS: Of 221,855 eligible villagers, 204,749 (92.3%, 95% CI 91.6-93.5) were screened for HCV antibody and HBsAg, of whom 33,839 (16.5%, 95% CI 12.2-16.1) and 763 (0.4%, 95% CI 0.3-0.5) were positive, respectively. Nearly all 33,839 HCV antibody positive individuals had a sample immediately collected for HCV RNA testing, and 15,892 were HCV RNA positive. The overall prevalence of HCV viraemia was 7.8%. A total of 14,495 (91.2%, 95% CI 89.9-96.4) patients received treatment within a median of 2.1 weeks from serological diagnosis (IQR 0.6-3.3 weeks) and a sustained virological response was achieved among 14,238 of the treated cases (98.3%, 95% CI 96.7-98.6). Cirrhosis was present in 3,192 patients (20.1%), of whom 166 (5.2%) were diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma. There was treatment coverage and cure of 84.6% of the estimated 17,137 infected persons aged 12-80 years across the 73 villages. CONCLUSION: In this study of more than 200,000 villagers, we demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of a community-based "educate, test and treat" programme as a model for the elimination of HCV infection in rural communities. LAY SUMMARY: A large community-based educate, test and treat hepatitis C programme was conducted in more than 200,000 villagers across 73 villages in Egypt. This study demonstrates that a simplified care model can achieve high uptake of testing, linkage to care and treatment, with high cure rates. We consider this a model for the elimination of hepatitis C virus infection in rural communities, which can be applied to other countries highly affected by hepatitis C.

Incidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis C patients with advanced hepatic fibrosis who achieved SVR following DAAs: A prospective study.

Liver cirrhosis is an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma. The reported annual incidence of HCC is about 3%-8% in CHC cirrhotic patients. Based on the Cochrane systematic review, there was no clear evidence, on the long-term clinical effects of DAAs in patients achieving SVR, as regard liver cirrhosis-related HCC incidence. The aim of the study was to determine the incidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis C patients genotype IV with liver cirrhosis and advanced liver fibrosis after achieving SVR following DAA treatment in a prospective large cohort of HCV patients with long follow-up. This was a prospective observational cohort study including 2372 CHC patients with advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis receiving DAA therapy in outpatient clinics at the Egyptian Liver Research Institute and Hospital since January 2015. Liver fibrosis was assessed using transient elastography. Abdominal ultrasonography and AFP measurement were done at baseline and follow-up visits every 6 months, in addition to triphasic abdominal MSCT when needed. Patients were followed up after achieving SVR12 for at least 12 months. HCC developed in 109 cases during the follow-up period (mean 23.60 ± 8.25 months). Overall HCC incidence was 2.338/100 PY, 95% CI = 1.942-2.814. In patients with cirrhosis, the incidence of HCC was 2.917/100 PY, 95% CI = 2.407-3.535, while in patients with advanced liver fibrosis the incidence of HCC was 0.664/100 PY, 95% CI = 0.333-1.326. In conclusion, the incidence of HCC was reduced in chronic hepatitis C genotype 4 patients with liver cirrhosis (F4) and advanced hepatic fibrosis (F3) who achieved SVR following DAA therapy.

A same day 'test and treat' model for chronic HCV and HBV infection: Results from two community-based pilot studies in Egypt.

Prompt access to confirmatory viral load testing and staging of liver disease are key barriers in uptake of treatment for chronic hepatitis B and C infection. Our objective was to establish the feasibility of a same day 'test and treat' model in two distinct community-based settings in Egypt through use of key point-of-care (POC) portable tools for HCV and HBV viral load assessment and staging of liver disease followed by treatment initiation. Community sites were a village in northern Egypt (site 1) and a government office in Cairo (site 2). The following model was adopted: community awareness raising in the week before project initiation; site assessment to ensure optimal placement and calibration of equipment and clinical care set-up; transfer of key portable laboratory instruments to the sites (four cartridge GeneXpert, FibroScan and abdominal ultrasound); screening using rapid diagnostic tests for HCV-Ab and HBsAg, with immediate venous or finger-stick blood sampling for HCV-RNA and HBV-DNA assay, FibroScan staging of liver disease and ultrasound screening for liver cancer. At site 1, 475 individuals were screened over a single day, 125 were positive for HCV-Ab and 4 for HBsAg, 43 of 56 new HCV diagnoses were HCV RNA positive, and 3 of 4 HBsAg positive were HBV DNA positive, 40 initiated HCV treatment, and one HBV treatment . At site 2, 3188 individuals were screened over 3 days, 157 were positive for HCV-Ab, and 27 for HBsAg; 38 of 76 new HCV diagnoses were HCV RNA positive, and 15 of 18 HBsAg positive were HBV-DNA positive. Across both sites, 78 patients were counselled and initiated on treatment for HCV and 12 for HBV within 3 and 4 hours, respectively, of initial positive rapid diagnostic test result. We have shown the feasibility of a same day 'test and treat' model for chronic HCV and HBV infection in two community-based settings in Egypt that achieved high levels of linkage to care and initial treatment.

GES: A validated simple score to predict the risk of HCC in patients with HCV-GT4-associated advanced liver fibrosis after oral antivirals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk persists after hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), particularly in patients with cirrhosis. Identifying those who are likely to develop HCC is a critical unmet medical need. Our aim is to develop a score that offers individualized patient HCC risk prediction. METHODS: This two-centre prospective study included 4400 patients, with cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR), including 2372 patients (derivation cohort). HCC-associated factors were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis to develop a scoring model for prediction of HCC risk; and subsequently internally and externally validated in two independent cohorts of 687 and 1341 patients. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the median follow-up was 23.51 ± 8.21 months, during which 109 patients (4.7%) developed HCC. Age, sex, serum albumin, α fetoprotein and pretreatment fibrosis stage were identified as risk factors for HCC. A simple predictive model (GES) score was constructed. The 2-year cumulative HCC incidence using Kaplan-Meier method was 1.2%, 3.3% and 7.1% in the low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Internal and external validation showed highly significant difference among the three risk groups (P < .001) with regard to cumulative HCC risk. GES score has high predictive ability value (Harrell's C statistic 0.801), that remained robustly consistent across two independent validation cohorts (Harrell's C statistic 0.812 and 0.816). CONCLUSION: GES score is simple with validated good predictive ability for the development of HCC after eradication of HCV and may be useful for HCC risk stratification in those patients.

High spontaneous clearance of symptomatic iatrogenic acute hepatitis C genotype 4 infection.

Acute hepatitis C (AHC) infection resolves spontaneously in 15% to 40% of patients. Factors favoring spontaneous viral clearance remain undefined. In this study, predictors of spontaneous viral clearance in patients with symptomatic AHC were investigated. Epidemiological, clinical, and virologic parameters were also examined. Patients with symptomatic AHC were enrolled and followed up prospectively. The patients were followed up every 2 weeks in the first month and then monthly for the following 5 months, with a follow-up visit 6 months after the last hepatitis C virus (HCV)-RNA negative sample for those who had cleared the virus. Interleukin (IL)-28B.rs12979860 single-nucleotide polymorphism and HCV genotype were tested at baseline. HCV-RNA was tested during each visit. Patients who remained RNA-positive at 24 weeks were treated with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for 24 weeks. A total of 30 patients, mostly with iatrogenically acquired AHC genotype 4 infections completed 6-months' follow-up, to either spontaneous clearance or start of treatment. The mean age of the patients was 37 ± 13 years. In total, 67% of patients were females, and the mean incubation period was 7.6 ± 3.5 weeks. Viral clearance occurred spontaneously in 19 (63.3%) patients. The average time to clearance was 24.3 ± 9.6 weeks. A total of 11 patients received therapy, and 8 (72.7%) cleared the virus and had a sustained virologic response to the treatment 24 weeks after the therapy. A total of three patients were treatment nonresponders. IL28B.rs12979860 CC genotype, female gender, and viremia level were not associated with self-limiting AHC in this cohort. In conclusion, patients with symptomatic AHC genotype 4 infection caused by an iatrogenic exposure had higher rates of spontaneous resolution than previously reported. Predicting spontaneous viral clearance after iatrogenic AHC exposure was not possible in this population.

Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Obesity: Do we Need two Operators for Accurate Evaluation of Liver Stiffness?

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Transient elastography is gaining popularity as a non-invasive method for predicting liver fibrosis, but inter observer agreement and factors influencing reproducibility have not been adequately assessed. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at Specialized Medical Hospital and the Egyptian Liver Foundation, Mansoura, Egypt. The inclusion criteria were: age older than 18 years and chronic infection by hepatitis C. The exclusion criteria were the presence of ascites, pacemaker or pregnancy. Three hundred and fifty-six patients participated in the study. Therefore, 356 pairs of exams were done by two operators on the same day. RESULTS: The overall inter observer agreement ICC was 0.921. The correlation the two operators was excellent (Spearman's value q = 0.808, p < 0.001). Inter-observer reliability values were κ = 0.557 (p < 0.001). A not negligible discordance of fibrosis staging between operators was observed (87 cases, 24.4%). Discordance of at least one stage and for two or more stages of fibrosis occurred in 60 (16.9%) and 27 cases (7.6%) respectively. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) is the main factor associated with discordance (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Although liver stiffness measurement has had an excellent correlation between the two operators, TE presented an inter-observer variability that may not be negligible.

Excess mortality rate associated with hepatitis C virus infection: A community-based cohort study in rural Egypt.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: >80% of people chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) live in resource-limited countries, yet the excess mortality associated with HCV infection in these settings is poorly documented. METHODS: Individuals were recruited from three villages in rural Egypt in 1997-2003 and their vital status was determined in 2008-2009. Mortality rates across the cohorts were compared according to HCV status: chronic HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA positive), cleared HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA negative) and never infected (anti-HCV antibody negative). Data related to cause of death was collected from a death registry in one village. RESULTS: Among 18,111 survey participants enrolled in 1997-2003, 9.1% had chronic HCV infection, 5.5% had cleared HCV infection, and 85.4% had never been infected. After a mean time to follow-up of 8.6years, vital status was obtained for 16,282 (89.9%) participants. When compared to those who had never been infected with HCV in the same age groups, mortality rate ratios (MRR) of males with chronic HCV infection aged <35, 35-44, and 45-54years were 2.35 (95% CI 1.00-5.49), 2.87 (1.46-5.63), and 2.22 (1.29-3.81), respectively. No difference in mortality rate was seen in older males or in females. The all-cause mortality rate attributable to chronic HCV infection was 5.7% (95% CI: 1.0-10.1%), while liver-related mortality was 45.5% (11.3-66.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Use of a highly potent new antiviral agent to treat all villagers with positive HCV RNA may reduce all-cause mortality rate by up to 5% and hepatic mortality by up to 40% in rural Egypt.

Strong association between long and heterogeneous telomere length in blood lymphocytes and bladder cancer risk in Egyptian.

Although it is widely recognized that telomere dysfunction plays an important role in cancer, the relationship between telomere function and bladder cancer risk is not well defined. In a case-control study of bladder cancer in Egypt, we examined relationships between two telomere features and bladder cancer risk. Telomere fluorescent in situ hybridization was used to measure telomere features using short-term cultured blood lymphocytes. Logistic regression was used to estimate the strength of association between telomere features and the risk of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. High telomere length variation (TLV) across all chromosomal ends was significantly associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer [adjusted odds ratios (OR) = 2.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.48-3.35], as was long average telomere length (OR = 3.19, 95% CI = 2.07, 4.91). Further, TLV and average telomere length jointly affected bladder cancer risk: when comparing individuals with long telomere length and high TLV to those with short telomere length and low TLV, the adjusted OR was 14.68 (95% CI: 6.74-31.98). These associations were stronger among individuals who are 60 years of age or younger. In summary, long and heterogeneous telomere length in blood lymphocytes was strongly associated with an increased bladder cancer risk in Egyptian and the association was modulated by age.

Differential distribution of IL28B.rs12979860 single-nucleotide polymorphism among Egyptian healthcare workers with and without a hepatitis C virus-specific cellular immune response.

The CC genotype of the interleukin (IL)-28B.rs12979860 gene has been associated with spontaneous hepatitis C virus (HCV) clearance and treatment response. The distribution and correlation of an IL28B.rs12979860 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with HCV-specific cell-mediated immune (CMI) responses among Egyptian healthcare workers (HCWs) is not known. We determined this relationship in 402 HCWs who serve a patient cohort with ~85% HCV prevalence. We enrolled 402 HCWs in four groups: group 1 (n = 258), seronegative aviremic subjects; group 2 (n = 25), seronegative viremic subjects; group 3 (n = 41), subjects with spontaneously resolved HCV infection; and group 4 (n = 78), chronic HCV patients. All subjects were tested for an HCV-specific CMI response using an ex-vivo interferon-gamma (IFNγ) ELISpot assay with nine HCV genotype-4a overlapping 15-mer peptide pools corresponding to all of the HCV proteins. All subjects were tested for IL28B.rs12979860 SNP by real-time PCR. An HCV-specific CMI was demonstrated in ~27% of the seronegative aviremic HCWs (group 1), suggesting clearance of infection after low-level exposure to HCV. The frequency of IL28B.rs12979860 C allele homozygosity in the four groups was 49%, 48%, 49%, and 23%, while that of the T allele was 14%, 16%, 12 and 19%, respectively, suggesting differential distributions among subjects with different HCV status. As reported, IL28B.rs12979860 predicted the outcome of HCV infection (p < 0.05), but we did not find any relationship between the IL28B genotypes and the outcome of HCV-specific CMI responses in the four groups (p > 0.05). The data show differential IL28B.rs12979860 genotype distribution among Egyptian HCWs with different HCV status and could not predict the outcome of HCV-specific CMI responses.

Validation of FIB-6 score in assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: We recently developed a simple novel index called fibrosis 6 (FIB-6) using machine learning data analysis. We aimed to evaluate its performance in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: A retrospective observational analysis of data was obtained from seven countries (Egypt, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Turkey, Greece, Oman, Qatar, and Jordan) of CHB patients. The inclusion criteria were receiving an adequate liver biopsy and a complete biochemical and hematological data. The diagnostic performance analysis of the FIB-6 index was conducted and compared with other non-invasive scores. RESULTS: A total of 603 patients were included for the analysis; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of FIB-6 for the discrimination of patients with cirrhosis (F4), compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) (F3 and F4), and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 0.854, 0.812, and 0.745, respectively. The analysis using the optimal cut-offs of FIB-6 showed a sensitivity of 70.9%, specificity of 84.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 40.3%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 95.0% for the diagnosis of cirrhosis. For the diagnosis of cACLD, the results were 71.5%, 69.3%, 40.8%, and 89.2%, respectively, while for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis, the results were 68.3%, 67.5%, 59.9%, and 75.0%, respectively. When compared to those of fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and AST-to-alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), the AUROC for the performance of FIB-6 was higher than that of FIB-4, APRI, and AAR in all fibrosis stages. FIB-6 gave the highest sensitivity and NPV (89.1% and 92.4%) in ruling out cACLD and cirrhosis, as compared to FIB-4 (63.8% and 83.0%), APRI (53.9% and 86.6%), and AAR (47.5% and 82.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The FIB-6 index could be used in ruling out cACLD, fibrosis, and cirrhosis with good reliability.

Management of patients with CHB outside the guidelines: Insights from Egyptian cohort with long-term follow-up.

It is alarming that globally, only 2.2% (6.6 million) of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) received treatment in 2019. One contributing factor to this low treatment rate is the complexity and restrictive nature of clinical practice guidelines. Since 1998, we have adopted a "treat-all" approach to patients with CHB. A retrospective study was conducted involving patients with CHB who received treatment from 1998 to 2020 at 2 institutions in Egypt. These patients underwent evaluation through various clinical and laboratory methods, which included testing for liver enzymes and HBV DNA. The study analyzed 1825 patients with HBV, finding that 27.4% had viremia levels under 2000 IU/mL. Most (88%) were HBeAg-negative, with 12% positive. A large portion (77.6%) had normal alanine aminotransferase levels, though 5.6% exceeded twice the upper limit of normal. About 14.2% were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis, and 9.6% with F3 stage fibrosis at enrollment. Notably, 2% (25 cases) lost HBsAg over a median of 52 months. Patients with HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL had a higher HBsAg loss rate (4.2%) compared to those with levels >2000 IU/mL (1.3%). During follow-up, 9.5% (117 patients) experienced decompensation, with a higher incidence in those with HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL (16.8%) than those >2000 IU/mL (7.1%). HCC developed in 5.2% of patients with lower HBV DNA and 2.6% with higher levels, showing significant differences. Liver-related deaths occurred in 2.8% of the cohort, with a slightly higher rate in those with lower initial HBV DNA levels (3.5% vs. 2.5%). The findings suggest a paradigm shift in CHB management toward early and broader eligibility for antiviral therapy. This could improve patient outcomes and address the global treatment gap in CHB management, especially in regions with high CHB prevalence.

Multicenter validation of FIB-6 as a novel machine learning non-invasive score to rule out liver cirrhosis in biopsy-proven MAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We previously developed and validated a non-invasive diagnostic index based on routine laboratory parameters for predicting the stage of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) called FIB-6 through machine learning with random forests algorithm using retrospective data of 7238 biopsy-proven CHC patients. Our aim is to validate this novel score in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). METHOD: Performance of the new score was externally validated in cohorts from one site in Egypt (n = 674) and in 5 different countries (n = 1798) in Iran, KSA, Greece, Turkey and Oman. Experienced pathologists using METAVIR scoring system scored the biopsy samples. Results were compared with FIB-4, APRI, and AAR. RESULTS: A total of 2472 and their liver biopsy results were included, using the optimal cutoffs of FIB-6 indicated a reliable performance in diagnosing cirrhosis, severe fibrosis, and significant fibrosis with sensitivity = 70.5%, specificity = 62.9%. PPV = 15.0% and NPV = 95.8% for diagnosis of cirrhosis. For diagnosis of severe fibrosis (F3 and F4), the results were 86.5%, 24.0%, 15.1% and 91.9% respectively, while for diagnosis of significant fibrosis (F2, F3 and F4), the results were 87.0%, 16.4%, 24.8% and 80.0%). Comparing the results of FIB-6 rule-out cutoffs with those of FIB-4, APRI, and AAR, FIB-6 had the highest sensitivity and NPV (97.0% and 94.7%), as compared to FIB-4 (71.6% and 94.7%), APRI (36.4% and 90.7%), and AAR (61.2% and 90.9%). CONCLUSION: FIB-6 score is an accurate, simple, NIT for ruling out advanced fibrosis and liver cirrhosis in patients with MAFLD.

Genetic polymorphism in IL28B is associated with spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus genotype 4 infection in an Egyptian cohort.

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) around IL28B are associated with spontaneous hepatitis C virus (HCV) clearance of genotypes 1 and 3 in white and African-American populations. This study investigated whether the IL28B SNP (rs12979860) is associated with spontaneous clearance of HCV, principally genotype 4, in 162 Egyptians (80 with clearance). The protective C allele was more common in those with spontaneous clearance (76.3% vs 57.9%; P = .0006). Individuals with clearance were 3.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.8-6.5) times more likely to have C/C genotype. Thus, IL28B plays a role in spontaneous clearance of HCV genotype 4 in North Africa.