Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records.

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

M-ClustEHR: A multimodal clustering approach for electronic health records.

Sepsis refers to a potentially life-threatening situation where the immune system of the human body has an extreme response to an infection. In the presence of underlying comorbidities, the situation can become even worse and result in death. Employing unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as clustering, can assist in providing a better understanding of patient phenotypes by unveiling subgroups characterized by distinct sepsis progression and treatment patterns. More concretely, this study introduces M-ClustEHR, a clustering approach that utilizes medical data of multiple modalities by employing a multimodal autoencoder for learning comprehensive sepsis patient representations. M-ClustEHR consistently outperforms traditional clustering approaches in terms of several internal clustering performance metrics, as well as cluster stability in identifying phenotypes in the sepsis cohort. The unveiled patterns, supported by existing medical literature and clinicians, highlight the importance of multimodal clustering for advancing personalized sepsis care.

Understanding peace through the world news.

Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.