Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

Observational evidence for interhemispheric hydroxyl-radical parity.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant involved in the removal of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The ratio of Northern Hemispheric to Southern Hemispheric (NH/SH) OH concentration is important for our understanding of emission estimates of atmospheric species such as nitrogen oxides and methane. It remains poorly constrained, however, with a range of estimates from 0.85 to 1.4 (refs 4, 7-10). Here we determine the NH/SH ratio of OH with the help of methyl chloroform data (a proxy for OH concentrations) and an atmospheric transport model that accurately describes interhemispheric transport and modelled emissions. We find that for the years 2004-2011 the model predicts an annual mean NH-SH gradient of methyl chloroform that is a tight linear function of the modelled NH/SH ratio in annual mean OH. We estimate a NH/SH OH ratio of 0.97 ± 0.12 during this time period by optimizing global total emissions and mean OH abundance to fit methyl chloroform data from two surface-measurement networks and aircraft campaigns. Our findings suggest that top-down emission estimates of reactive species such as nitrogen oxides in key emitting countries in the NH that are based on a NH/SH OH ratio larger than 1 may be overestimated.

Comparison of two prognostic models in trauma outcome.

BACKGROUND: The Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) in the UK publicly reports hospital performance in the management of trauma. The TARN risk adjustment model uses a fractional polynomial transformation of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) as the measure of anatomical injury severity. The Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM) is an alternative to ISS; this study compared the anatomical injury components of the TARN model with the TMPM. METHODS: Data from the National Trauma Data Bank for 2011-2015 were analysed. Probability of death was estimated for the TARN fractional polynomial transformation of ISS and compared with the TMPM. The coefficients for each model were estimated using 80 per cent of the data set, selected randomly. The remaining 20 per cent of the data were used for model validation. TMPM and TARN were compared using calibration curves, measures of discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curves; AUROC), proximity to the true model (Akaike information criterion; AIC) and goodness of model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). RESULTS: Some 438 058 patient records were analysed. TMPM demonstrated preferable AUROC (0·882 for TMPM versus 0·845 for TARN), AIC (18 204 versus 21 163) and better fit to the data (32·4 versus 153·0) compared with TARN. CONCLUSION: TMPM had greater discrimination, proximity to the true model and goodness-of-fit than the anatomical injury component of TARN. TMPM should be considered for the injury severity measure for the comparative assessment of trauma centres.

Heavy metals fractionation in surface sediments of Gowatr bay--Iran.

In this study, the chemical speciation of heavy metals and their distribution in surface sediments of Gowatr bay, southeast Iran, are investigated. Modified Bureau Commune de Reference of the European Commission (BCR) sequential extraction technique was applied to assess Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn, Ni, Co, Cr, V, and Fe in the four fractions of five surface sediment samples. Calculated contamination factors (C(i)f) indicate considerable to very high degree of contamination for Cu and Cr, and very high degree for Zn and Ni. Maximum contamination degree (Cd) also suggests serious anthropogenic pollution at two sites. The dominance of average concentration of Cu, Pb, Zn, and Mn in non-residual fractions indicates higher ecological risk within Gowatr bay. Conversely, Ni, Co, Cr, Fe, and V mainly exist in residual phase and hence pose no immediate ecological risk. Calculated individual contamination factors (ICFs) indicate the highest risk of Cu, Pb, Zn, and Mn at two investigated sites. Global contamination factor (GCF) reveals that Pasabandar harbor is highly impacted by metal pollutants.

Ecotoxicological risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soil of Isfahan metropolis, Iran.

Concentration, distribution, probable sources, and health risks of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were investigated in 52 soil samples collected within a radius 50 km from Isfahan metropolis center. Total concentration of PAHs ranged from 57.70 to 11,730.08 µg/kg averaging 2,000.56 µg/kg. Spatial PAH profiles were site-specific and higher concentration of PAHs was observed in the vicinity of industrial zones within Isfahan metropolis. The molecular indices, ring classes, and principal component analysis indicated that the sources of PAHs were both geogenic and pyrogenic. The incremental lifetime cancer risks of exposure to soil PAHs for adults and children living in the study area were 2.3×10(-2) and 2.2×10(-3), respectively. The results suggest that current PAHs levels in Isfahan metropolis soil are highly carcinogenic and may hold a serious health risk for local resident.

Male mealworm beetles increase resting metabolic rate under terminal investment.

Harmful parasite infestation can cause energetically costly behavioural and immunological responses, with the potential to reduce host fitness and survival. It has been hypothesized that the energetic costs of infection cause resting metabolic rate (RMR) to increase. Furthermore, under terminal investment theory, individuals exposed to pathogens should allocate resources to current reproduction when life expectancy is reduced, instead of concentrating resources on an immune defence. In this study, we activated the immune system of Tenebrio molitor males via insertion of nylon monofilament, conducted female preference tests to estimate attractiveness of male odours and assessed RMR and mortality. We found that attractiveness of males coincided with significant down-regulation of their encapsulation response against a parasite-like intruder. Activation of the immune system increased RMR only in males with heightened odour attractiveness and that later suffered higher mortality rates. The results suggest a link between high RMR and mortality and support terminal investment theory in T. molitor.

Accounting for the increasing benefits from scarce ecosystems.

As people get richer, and ecosystem services scarcer, policy-relevant estimates of ecosystem value must rise.

Cross-cultural variation in women's preferences for cues to sex- and stress-hormones in the male face.

Women in the UK prefer the faces of men with low levels of the stress hormone cortisol, and the relationship is moderated by the sex hormone testosterone. In a Latvian sample, however, women's preferences were not affected by cortisol, and the interaction with testosterone differed from that of the UK. To further explore cross-cultural variation in preferences for facial cues to sex- and stress-hormones, we tested the preferences of women from 13 countries for facial composites constructed to differ in combinations of the hormones. We found significant relationships between a measure of societal development (the United Nations human development index 2011) and preferences for cues to testosterone in the face, and the interaction between preferences for cues to testosterone and cortisol. We also found a significant relationship between preferences for cues to testosterone and a societal-level measure of parasite stress. We conclude that societal-level ecological factors influence the relative value of traits revealed by combinations of sex- and stress-hormones.

Global-scale seasonally resolved black carbon vertical profiles over the Pacific.

[1] Black carbon (BC) aerosol loadings were measured during the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign above the remote Pacific from 85°N to 67°S. Over 700 vertical profiles extending from near the surface to max ∼14 km altitude were obtained with a single-particle soot photometer between early 2009 and mid-2011. The data provides a climatology of BC in the remote regions that reveals gradients of BC concentration reflecting global-scale transport and removal of pollution. BC is identified as a sensitive tracer of extratropical mixing into the lower tropical tropopause layer and trends toward surprisingly uniform loadings in the lower stratosphere of ∼1 ng/kg. The climatology is compared to predictions from the AeroCom global model intercomparison initiative. The AeroCom model suite overestimates loads in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (∼10×) more severely than at lower altitudes (∼3×), with bias roughly independent of season or geographic location; these results indicate that it overestimates BC lifetime.

Fluctuations of MS births and UV-light exposure.

BACKGROUND: Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are more frequently born in spring when compared to autumn. Fluctuation of UV-light has been hypothesized to drive this phenomenon. AIM: To assess the correlation between fluctuation of sunlight and birth season in persons with MS. METHODS: For this record-linkage study, we collected from the international MSBase and the Italian MS iMed-web databases the dates of birth of 11,415 patients with MS from 36 centres from 15 countries worldwide and compared these to dates of live-births from national registries. From all participating sites, we collected data on UV-light fluctuation and assessed its correlation with seasonal fluctuation in MS births. RESULTS: Compared with the reference cohort, an increased proportion of persons with MS were born in spring and a decreased proportion in autumn (odds ratio (OR) to be born in spring versus autumn = 1.158, χ² = 36.347, P < 0.001). There was no significantly increased fluctuation of MS births with increased quartile of ambient UV-light fluctuation (Ptrend = 0.086). CONCLUSION: Seasonal fluctuation of MS births as found in this worldwide cohort of patients with MS did not correlate with variation in seasonal fluctuation of UV-light. Most likely, it results from a complex interplay between fluctuation of sunlight, behavioural factors, other environmental factors and (epi)genetic factors.

Evaluation of potentially toxic metals pollution in the sediments of the Kor river, southwest Iran.

This study is carried out to evaluate potentially toxic metal concentrations (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn) together with their spatial distribution, degree of pollution, and potential ecological risk in Kor river sediments (southwest Iran) using sediment quality guidelines, geoaccumulation index (I geo), Hakanson potential ecological risk index (RI), and standard methods of statistical analysis. The study area stretches some 140 km from the Drodzan Dam to Bakhtegan Lake, a stretch of river where different industrial and domestic activities (e.g., petrochemical complex, oil refinery, industrial meat processing complex, Marvdasht city sewage) and ecological value overlap with each other. Calculated geoaccumulation index indicate that 50 % of the stations are moderately to very extremely polluted. The potential ecological risk for nine investigated metals in Kor river is Hg (948) > Mo (51.9) > Ni (37.8) > Cd (29.8) > As (22) > Cu (16.6) > Pb (13.3) > Zn (3.3) > Cr (1). Results show that sediments in parts of Kor river sediments are heavily affected by effluents discharged from industrial plants and other parts are affected by agriculture and urban runoff from nearby lands. These phenomena may cause a risk of secondary water pollution under sediment disturbance and/or changes in the physical-chemical characteristics of the aquatic system.

Pyrocumulonimbus affect average stratospheric aerosol composition.

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) are wildfire-generated convective clouds that can inject smoke directly into the stratosphere. PyroCb have been tracked for years, yet their apparent rarity and episodic nature lead to highly uncertain climate impacts. In situ measurements of pyroCb smoke reveal its distinctive and exceptionally stable aerosol properties and define the long-term influence of pyroCb activity on the stratospheric aerosol budget. Analysis of 13 years of airborne observations shows that pyroCb are responsible for 10 to 25% of the black carbon and organic aerosols in the "present-day" lower stratosphere, with similar impacts in both the North and South Hemispheres. These results suggest that, should pyroCb increase in frequency and/or magnitude in future climates, they could generate dominant trends in stratospheric aerosol.

The frequency of CSF oligoclonal banding in multiple sclerosis increases with latitude.

BACKGROUND: With the advent of MRI scanning, the value of lumbar puncture to assess oligoclonal band (OCB) status-for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) is increasingly uncertain. One major issue is that the reported frequency of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-restricted oligoclonal banding for the diagnosis of MS varies considerably in different studies. In addition, the relationship between OCB positivity and disease outcome remains uncertain, as reported studies are generally too small to assess comparative disability outcomes with sufficient power. METHODS: In order to further investigate variation of OCB positivity in patients with MS, we utilized MSBase, a longitudinal, Web-based collaborative MS outcomes registry following clinical cohorts in several continents and latitudes. We also assessed whether OCB positivity affects long-term disability outcome. RESULTS: A total of 13,242 patient records were obtained from 37 MS specialist centres in 19 different countries. OCB status was documented in 4481 (34%) patients and 80% of these were OCB positive. The presence of OCB was associated with degree of latitude (p = 0.02). Furthermore, the outcome of patients negative for CSF-specific OCB was significantly better in comparison to the OCB positive patients, as assessed by Expanded Disability Status Scale change (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that latitude could explain some of the inconsistencies in OCB status reported in different populations. The study confirms that OCB positivity in MS is associated with a worse long-term prognosis.

Evidence for the stress-linked immunocompetence handicap hypothesis in human male faces.

The stress-linked immunocompetence handicap hypothesis (SL-ICHH) of sexual selection incorporates a role of the stress hormone corticosterone (C; cortisol in humans) in relationships between testosterone (T), immunity and secondary sexual trait expression. In support of this, C has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships between T and immune response and to be inversely related to attractiveness in some avian species. We predicted that female preferences for cues to T in human male faces would be contingent upon co-occurring cortisol levels. In study 1, we tested relationships between T and cortisol and attractiveness, masculinity and health ratings of raw male faces. We found cortisol to be inversely related to attractiveness. In study 2, we tested female preferences for male faces that were parametrically manipulated on the basis of cues to naturally co-occurring levels of T and cortisol across the menstrual cycle. Women preferred cues to low cortisol in general and in the fertile phase of the cycle, and there was an interaction between T and cortisol in general and in the non-fertile phase. Results were consistent with the SL-ICHH but not the original immunocompetence handicap model: females expressed preferences for cues to cortisol but not for cues to T, except in interaction with the stress hormone. Results inform the SL-ICHH by demonstrating female preferences for low cortisol and the nature of its interaction with T in humans, as well as indicating the traits that may be signalled by different combinations of the hormones including immune response, current health and resource acquisition characteristics.

Cues to sex- and stress-hormones in the human male face: functions of glucocorticoids in the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis.

The stress-linked version of the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis has been proposed to account for inconsistencies in relationships between testosterone and immune response. The model has received some support from studies demonstrating roles of stress hormones in relationships between testosterone, immune function and secondary sexual ornamentation. Such work, however, has relied on artificial elevation of testosterone so may not reflect relationships in natural populations. We created human male facial stimuli on the basis of naturally co-occurring levels of salivary testosterone and the stress hormone cortisol. In Study 1 we tested female preferences for male faces with cues to combinations of the hormones across the menstrual cycle, and in Study 2 we tested perceptions of health and dominance in a novel set of facial stimuli. Females preferred cues to low cortisol, a preference that was strongest during the fertile phase of the menstrual cycle. The effects of cortisol on attractiveness and perceived health and dominance were contingent upon level of testosterone: the effects of the stress hormone were reduced when testosterone was high. We propose explanations for our results, including low cortisol as a cue to a heritable component of health, attractiveness as a predictor of low social-evaluative threat (and, therefore, low baseline cortisol) and testosterone as a proxy of male ability to cope efficiently with stressors.

Emerging tropical diseases in Australia. Part 5. Hendra virus.

Hendra virus (HeV) was first isolated in 1994, from a disease outbreak involving at least 21 horses and two humans in the Brisbane suburb of Hendra, Australia. The affected horses and humans all developed a severe but unidentified respiratory disease that resulted in the deaths of one of the human cases and the deaths or putting down of 14 of the horses. The virus, isolated by culture from a horse and the kidney of the fatal human case, was initially characterised as a new member of the genus Morbillivirus in the family Paramyxoviridae. Comparative sequence analysis of part of the matrix protein gene of the virus and the discovery that the virus had an exceptionally large genome subsequently led to HeV being assigned to a new genus, Henipavirus, along with Nipah virus (a newly emergent virus in pigs). The regular outbreaks of HeV-related disease that have occurred in Australia since 1994 have all been characterised by acute respiratory and neurological manifestations, with high levels of morbidity and mortality in the affected horses and humans. The modes of transmission of HeV remain largely unknown. Although fruit bats have been identified as natural hosts of the virus, direct bat-horse, bat-human or human-human transmission has not been reported. Human infection can occur via exposure to infectious urine, saliva or nasopharyngeal fluid from horses. The treatment options and efficacy are very limited and no vaccine exists. Reports on the outbreaks of HeV in Australia are collated in this review and the available data on the biology, transmission and detection of the pathogen are summarized and discussed.

Sociodemographic predictors of attendance at a Scottish pain management programme.

We examined relationships between various sociodemographic factors and attendance at the Glasgow Pain Management Programme (n = 2899 from 2011 to 2019). We tested for associations between gender, age and socioeconomic deprivation of patients who were invited to attend, and uptake to a programme when invited, attendance at screening assessment, eligibility, adherence and attendance at 3- and 6-month reviews. Uptake was significantly higher for patients from more affluent areas (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93-0.99, p = 0.002) and for older patients (95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p = 0.006), although effect sizes were very small. Patients were significantly more likely to be assessed as suitable if they were younger (95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p = 0.013) or female (95% CI = 0.55-0.84, p < 0.001). Attendance at sessions and at 3- and 6-month reviews was higher for patients from more affluent areas (95% CI = 1-1.09, p = 0.001, and 95% CI = 1-1.1, p = 0.044 respectively). We argue that there are multiple potential explanations for these findings and that future work should attempt to determine whether these patterns replicate in other populations and to determine any modifiable causes.

Radiolabelled Cyclic Bisarylmercury: High Chemical and in†vivo Stability for Theranostics.

We show the synthesis of an in vivo stable mercury compound with functionality suitable for radiopharmaceuticals. The designed cyclic bisarylmercury was based on the water tolerance of organomercurials, higher bond dissociation energy of Hg-Ph to Hg-S, and the experimental evidence that acyclic structures suffer significant cleavage of one of the Hg-R bonds. The bispidine motif was chosen for its in vivo stability, chemical accessibility, and functionalization properties. Radionuclide production results in 197(m) HgCl2 (aq), so the desired mercury compound was formed via a water-tolerant organotin transmetallation. The Hg-bispidine compound showed high chemical stability in tests with an excess of sulfur-containing competitors and high in vivo stability, without any observable protein interaction by human serum assay, and good organ clearance demonstrated by biodistribution and SPECT studies in rats. In particular, no retention in the kidneys was observed, typical of unstable mercury compounds. The nat Hg analogue allowed full characterization by NMR and HRMS.