Overcoming Barriers to Remission in Severe Eosinophilic Asthma: Two-Year Real-World Data With Benralizumab.

BACKGROUND: Benralizumab has been reported to lead to clinical remission of severe eosinophilic asthma (SEA) at 1 year in some patients. However, whether this is maintained over a longer term remains unclear. Additionally, the impact of pulmonary and extrapulmonary comorbidities on the ability to meet remission is poorly understood. METHODS: Clinical outcomes including remission of SEA with benralizumab at 1 and 2 years were assessed retrospectively in a real-world UK multi-centre severe asthma cohort. The presence of clinically relevant pulmonary and extrapulmonary comorbidities associated with respiratory symptoms was recorded. Analyses to identify factors associated with the ability to meet remission were performed. RESULTS: In total, 276 patients with SEA treated with benralizumab including 113 patients who had switched from a previous biologic to benralizumab were included. Overall, clinical remission was met in 17% (n = 31/186) and 32% (n = 43/133) of patients at 1 and 2 years, respectively. This increased to 28% at 1 year and 49% at 2 years once patients with pulmonary and/or extrapulmonary comorbidities were excluded. Body mass index (BMI) and maintenance OCS (mOCS) use demonstrated a negative association with clinical remission at 1 (BMI: OR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.96, p < 0.01; mOCS: OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89-0.99, p < 0.05) and 2 years (BMI: OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-0.99, p < 0.05; mOCS: OR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.89-0.99, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In this long-term, real-world study, patients with SEA demonstrated the ability to meet and sustain clinical remission when treated with benralizumab. The presence of comorbidities including obesity, which are known to be independently associated with respiratory symptoms, reduced the likelihood of meeting clinical remission.

Frequency and severity of respiratory infections prior to COPD diagnosis and risk of subsequent postdiagnosis COPD exacerbations and mortality: EXACOS-UK health care data study.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about how lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) before chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with future exacerbations and mortality. We investigated this association in patients with COPD in England. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data were used. Start of follow-up was patient's first ever COPD diagnosis date and a 1-year baseline period prior to start of follow-up was used to find mild LRTIs (general practice (GP) events/no antibiotics), moderate LRTIs (GP events+antibiotics) and severe LRTIs (hospitalised). Patients were categorised as having: none, 1 mild only, 2+ mild only, 1 moderate, 2+ moderate and 1+ severe. Negative binomial regression modelled the association between baseline LRTIs and subsequent COPD exacerbations and Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate mortality. RESULTS: In 215 234 patients with COPD, increasing frequency and severity of mild and moderate LRTIs were associated with increased rates of subsequent exacerbations compared with no recorded LRTIs (1 mild adjusted IRR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.18, 2+ mild IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.55, 1 moderate IRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.78 to 1.85, 2+ moderate IRR 2.55, 95% CI 2.48 to 2.63). Patients with 1+ severe LRTI (vs no baseline LRTIs) also showed an increased rate of future exacerbations (adjusted IRR 1.75, 95% CI, 1.70 to 1.80). This pattern of association was similar for risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality; however, patients with 1+ severe LRTIs had the highest risk of all-cause and COPD mortality. CONCLUSION: Increasing frequency and severity of LRTIs prior to COPD diagnosis were associated with increasing rates of subsequent exacerbations, and increasing risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality.

A retrospective cohort study predicting and validating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals with chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased risk of baseline mortality and severe COVID-19, but analyses across CKD stages, and comorbidities are lacking. In prevalent and incident CKD, we investigated comorbidities, baseline risk, COVID-19 incidence, and predicted versus observed one-year excess death. In a national dataset (NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment [NHSD TRE]) for England encompassing 56 million individuals), we conducted a retrospective cohort study (March 2020 to March 2021) for prevalence of comorbidities by incident and prevalent CKD, SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality. Baseline mortality risk, incidence and outcome of infection by comorbidities, controlling for age, sex and vaccination were assessed. Observed versus predicted one-year mortality at varying population infection rates and pandemic-related relative risks using our published model in pre-pandemic CKD cohorts (NHSD TRE and Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]) were compared. Among individuals with CKD (prevalent:1,934,585, incident:144,969), comorbidities were common (73.5% and 71.2% with one or more condition[s] in respective data sets, and 13.2% and 11.2% with three or more conditions, in prevalent and incident CKD), and associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly dialysis/transplantation (odds ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval 2.04-2.13) and heart failure (1.73, 1.71-1.76), but not cancer (1.01, 1.01-1.04). One-year all-cause mortality varied by age, sex, multi-morbidity and CKD stage. Compared with 34,265 observed excess deaths, in the NHSD-TRE and CPRD databases respectively, we predicted 28,746 and 24,546 deaths (infection rates 10% and relative risks 3.0), and 23,754 and 20,283 deaths (observed infection rates 6.7% and relative risks 3.7). Thus, in this largest, national-level study, individuals with CKD have a high burden of comorbidities and multi-morbidity, and high risk of pre-pandemic and pandemic mortality. Hence, treatment of comorbidities, non-pharmaceutical measures, and vaccination are priorities for people with CKD and management of long-term conditions is important during and beyond the pandemic.

Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of lifetime risk have neither considered all CVRD together nor the relative contribution of major risk factors to combined disease burden. METHODS: In a population-based cohort study using national electronic health records, we studied 473,399 individuals with T2D in England 2007-2018. Lifetime risk of individual and combined major adverse renal cardiovascular events, MARCE (including CV death and CVRD: heart failure; chronic kidney disease; myocardial infarction; stroke or peripheral artery disease), were estimated, accounting for baseline CVRD status and competing risk of death. We calculated population attributable risk for individual CVRD components. Ideal cardiovascular health was defined by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, smoking, physical activity, diet, and body mass index (i.e. modifiable risk factors). RESULTS: In individuals with T2D, lifetime risk of MARCE was 80% in those free from CVRD and was 97%, 93%, 98%, 89% and 91% in individuals with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, myocardial infarction, stroke and peripheral arterial disease, respectively at baseline. Among CVRD-free individuals, lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease was highest (54%), followed by CV death (41%), heart failure (29%), stroke (20%), myocardial infarction (19%) and peripheral arterial disease (9%). In those with HF only, 75% of MARCE after index T2D can be attributed to HF after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities. Compared with those with > 1, < 3 and ≥3 modifiable health risk behaviours, achieving ideal cardiovascular health could reduce MARCE by approximately 41.5%, 23.6% and 17.2%, respectively, in the T2D population. CONCLUSIONS: Four out of five individuals with T2D free from CVRD, and nearly all those with history of CVRD, will develop MARCE over their lifetime. Early preventive measures in T2D patients are clinical, public health and policy priorities.

Significant reduction in chronic kidney disease progression with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors in adults with type 2 diabetes in a UK clinical setting: An observational outcomes study based on international guidelines for kidney disease.

AIMS: To confirm the reno-protective effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors on the onset and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. The primary outcome was risk of the composite CKD endpoint based on the recent consensus guidelines for kidney disease: >40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), kidney death or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD; a composite of kidney transplantation, maintenance of dialysis, sustained low eGFR <15 ml/min/1.73m² or diagnosis of ESKD). Secondary outcomes were components of the composite CKD endpoint, analysed separately. Patients were propensity-score-matched 1:1 for SGLT2 inhibitor versus DPP-4 inhibitor use. RESULTS: A total of 131 824 people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) were identified; 79.0% had no known history of CKD. During a median follow-up of 2.1 years, SGLT2 inhibitor initiation was associated with lower risk of progression to composite kidney endpoints than DPP-4 inhibitor initiation (7.48 vs. 11.77 events per 1000 patient-years, respectively). Compared with DPP-4 inhibitor initiation, SGLT2 inhibitor initiation was associated with reductions in the primary composite CKD endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.74), all-cause mortality (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.86) and ESKD (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.25-0.55), reduced the rate of sustained low eGFR (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19-0.57), and reduced diagnoses of ESKD in primary care (HR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.18). Results were consistent across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In adults with T2D, initiation of an SGLT2 inhibitor was associated with a significantly reduced risk of CKD progression and death compared with initiation of a DPP-4 inhibitor.

Lower risk of hospitalization for heart failure, kidney disease and death with sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes regardless of prior cardiovascular or kidney disease: A retrospective cohort study in UK primary care.

AIM: To assess if sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) reduce the risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or chronic kidney disease (CKD) to a greater extent than dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4is) in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with or without established cardiovascular and/or renal disease (CVRD). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study propensity-matched 24 438 patients receiving an SGLT2i 1:1 to a patient receiving a DDP4i, stratified based on the presence of CVRD. The primary outcomes were the time to each of the following: all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death or hospitalization for HF, myocardial infarction, stroke and CKD. RESULTS: Overall, SGLT2is were associated with reductions in all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, hospitalization for HF and hospitalization for CKD compared with DPP4is. In patients with no CVRD history, SGLT2is were associated with reductions in all-cause mortality (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.57-0.88; P = .002), hospitalization for HF (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.98; P = .035) and hospitalization for CKD (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.88; P < .001). In patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) or at high risk, SGLT2is were associated with reductions in all-cause mortality (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.59-0.82; P < .001), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.62-0.95; P = .014), hospitalization for HF (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.85; P < .001), hospitalization for stroke (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.94; P = .013) and hospitalization for CKD (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.43-0.54; P < .001). CONCLUSION: There was consistency across subgroups and sensitivity analyses. SGLT2is were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization for HF and CKD compared with DPP4-is, highlighting the need to introduce SGLT2is early in the management of patients with T2D.

Real world outcomes in platinum sensitive relapsed ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer treated in routine clinical practice in the United Kingdom prior to poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors.

INTRODUCTION: The introduction of poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors in ovarian cancer has demonstrated significantly improved progression free survival in four randomized controlled clinical trials in patients with platinum sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer. While overall survival data remain immature, this real world evidence study sets a baseline for future evaluation of poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was undertaken to investigate real world survival outcomes across 13 National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Scotland. Patients were included if they had platinum sensitive relapsed high grade serous ovarian cancer and had responded to secondline platinum based chemotherapy. Clinical data were collected retrospectively from electronic prescribing records and chart notes. The index date for overall survival analysis was defined as the later of (1) day 1 of the final secondline platinum based treatment or (2) date of response to secondline treatment. The primary objective was overall survival from the index date. Secondary objectives included progression free survival and overall survival by subsequent line of treatment. BRCA mutation status was collected where available. Quality of life questionnaires were not assessed within this study. RESULTS: 233 patients were identified who met the study inclusion criteria. Patient characteristics were consistent with other published data, with a median age of 61 years (range 35-85). Sensitivity analysis of the primary objective demonstrated that the earliest point poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors may be initiated (following completion of secondline chemotherapy) is associated with a median overall survival of 19.8 months. Secondline median overall survival and progression free survival from the index date were 19.3±2.4 months and 7.3±1.2 months, respectively. 144 patients were treated with thirdline chemotherapy with median overall survival and progression free survival from the index date (either date of last cycle of thirdline treatment or date of response to thirdline treatment) of 8.3±2.6 and 4.4±1.8 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: Overall survival was shown to be shorter in this real world study compared with randomized clinical trials, and underlines the differences in clinical outcomes of patients in a real life setting. This baseline real world study has demonstrated poor survival outcomes in this patient group prior to availability of poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients enrolled in the Connect 360 benralizumab patient support programme in the UK: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patient support programmes (PSPs) allow patients with chronic diseases to receive treatment and support at home. This study describes the Connect 360 PSP delivery and impact on patient-reported outcomes, satisfaction and adherence/persistence among benralizumab-treated patients with severe eosinophilic asthma (SEA). METHODS: A non-interventional retrospective cohort study using data collected during routine care in the Connect 360 PSP. All consenting enrollees (≥18 years) were included in the study. RESULTS: 746 patients formed the study cohort. Mean (SD) age was 53.7 (14.5) years on PSP entry; 38.3% were female (38.7% unknown). 79.6% of patients were experienced biological therapy users. Oral corticosteroid (OCS) use was reported in 48.4% of patients at baseline and 34.8% at 48 weeks. 8.2% of patients reported asthma hospitalisation in the previous 6 months at 24 weeks vs 3.0% at 48 weeks. Mean (SD) 6-item Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ-6) scores were 2.7 (1.5) at baseline vs 1.6 (1.3) at 48 weeks. Mean (SD) patient satisfaction scores remained high (4.5 of 5 (1.0) at baseline; 4.7 of 5 (0.6) at 48 weeks). 28.3% of patients were considered adherent at 24 weeks, increasing to 98.3% when supplemented with sales/delivery data (sensitivity analysis). Discontinuation from PSP/benralizumab was low at 24 (3.4%/3.0%) and 48 (12.6%/5.8%) weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Connect 360 PSP achieved high levels of satisfaction and persistence, with indications of positive outcomes including OCS use, hospitalisation and ACQ-6. The study was conducted during COVID-19, so it provides reassurance that patients with SEA receiving benralizumab may be supported safely and effectively at home.

Identifying subtypes of type 2 diabetes mellitus with machine learning: development, internal validation, prognostic validation and medication burden in linked electronic health records in 420 448 individuals.

INTRODUCTION: None of the studies of type 2 diabetes (T2D) subtyping to date have used linked population-level data for incident and prevalent T2D, incorporating a diverse set of variables, explainable methods for cluster characterization, or adhered to an established framework. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML)-informed subtypes for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) using nationally representative data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In population-based electronic health records (2006-2020; Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in individuals ≥18 years with incident T2D (n=420 448), we included factors (n=3787), including demography, history, examination, biomarkers and medications. Using a published framework, we identified subtypes through nine unsupervised ML methods (K-means, K-means++, K-mode, K-prototype, mini-batch, agglomerative hierarchical clustering, Birch, Gaussian mixture models, and consensus clustering). We characterized clusters using intracluster distributions and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. We evaluated subtypes for (1) internal validity (within dataset; across methods); (2) prognostic validity (prediction for 5-year all-cause mortality, hospitalization and new chronic diseases); and (3) medication burden. RESULTS: Development: We identified four T2D subtypes: metabolic, early onset, late onset and cardiometabolic. Internal validity: Subtypes were predicted with high accuracy (F1 score >0.98). Prognostic validity: 5-year all-cause mortality, hospitalization, new chronic disease incidence and medication burden differed across T2D subtypes. Compared with the metabolic subtype, 5-year risks of mortality and hospitalization in incident T2D were highest in late-onset subtype (HR 1.95, 1.85-2.05 and 1.66, 1.58-1.75) and lowest in early-onset subtype (1.18, 1.11-1.27 and 0.85, 0.80-0.90). Incidence of chronic diseases was highest in late-onset subtype and lowest in early-onset subtype. Medications: Compared with the metabolic subtype, after adjusting for age, sex, and pre-T2D medications, late-onset subtype (1.31, 1.28-1.35) and early-onset subtype (0.83, 0.81-0.85) were most and least likely, respectively, to be prescribed medications within 5 years following T2D onset. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest study using ML to date in incident T2D, we identified four distinct subtypes, with potential future implications for etiology, therapeutics, and risk prediction.

Impact of patient support programmes among patients with severe asthma treated with biological therapies: a systematic literature review and indirect treatment comparison.

INTRODUCTION: Effective treatment of severe asthma requires patient adherence to inhaled and biological medications. Previous work has shown that patient support programmes (PSP) can improve adherence in patients with chronic diseases, but the impact of PSPs in patients with severe asthma treated with biologics has not been thoroughly investigated. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review to understand the impact of PSPs on treatment adherence, asthma control and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with severe asthma. Embase, MEDLINE and EconLit databases were searched for studies published from 2003 (the year of the first biological approval for severe asthma) to June 2023 that described PSP participation among patients with severe asthma on biological treatment. Direct pooling of outcomes was not possible due to the heterogeneity across studies, so an indirect treatment comparison (ITC) was performed to determine the effect of PSP participation on treatment discontinuation. The ITC used patient-level data from patients treated with benralizumab either enrolled in a PSP (VOICE study, Connect 360 PSP) or not enrolled in a PSP (Benralizumab Patient Access Programme study) in the UK. FINDINGS: 25 records of 21 studies were selected. Six studies investigated the impact of PSPs on treatment adherence, asthma control or HRQoL. All six studies reported positive outcomes for patients enrolled in PSPs; the benefits of each PSP were closely linked to the services provided. The ITC showed that patients in the Connect 360 PSP group were less likely to discontinue treatment compared with the non-PSP group (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.57, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PSPs contribute to positive clinical outcomes in patients with severe asthma on biological treatment. Future analyses will benefit from thorough descriptions of PSP services, and study designs that allow direct comparisons of patient outcomes with and without a PSP.

AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations. METHODS: Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1). CONCLUSIONS: Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.

Risk factors, outcomes and healthcare utilisation in individuals with multimorbidity including heart failure, chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a national electronic health record study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) commonly coexist. We studied characteristics, prognosis and healthcare utilisation of individuals with two of these conditions. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, population-based linked electronic health records study from 1998 to 2020 in England to identify individuals diagnosed with two of: HF, T2D or CKD. We described cohort characteristics at time of second diagnosis and estimated risk of developing the third condition and mortality using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. We also estimated rates of healthcare utilisation in primary care and hospital settings in follow-up. FINDINGS: We identified cohorts of 64 226 with CKD and HF, 82 431 with CKD and T2D, and 13 872 with HF and T2D. Compared with CKD and T2D, those with CKD and HF and HF and T2D had more severe risk factor profile. At 5 years, incidence of the third condition and all-cause mortality occurred in 37% (95% CI: 35.9%, 38.1%%) and 31.3% (30.4%, 32.3%) in HF+T2D, 8.7% (8.4%, 9.0%) and 51.6% (51.1%, 52.1%) in HF+CKD, and 6.8% (6.6%, 7.0%) and 17.9% (17.6%, 18.2%) in CKD+T2D, respectively. In each of the three multimorbid groups, the order of the first two diagnoses was also associated with prognosis. In multivariable analyses, we identified risk factors for developing the third condition and mortality, such as age, sex, medical history and the order of disease diagnosis. Inpatient and outpatient healthcare utilisation rates were highest in CKD and HF, and lowest in CKD and T2D. INTERPRETATION: HF, CKD and T2D carry significant mortality and healthcare burden in combination. Compared with other disease pairs, individuals with CKD and HF had the most severe risk factor profile, prognosis and healthcare utilisation. Service planning, policy and prevention must take into account and monitor data across conditions.

Identifying subtypes of chronic kidney disease with machine learning: development, internal validation and prognostic validation using linked electronic health records in 350,067 individuals.

BACKGROUND: Although chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with high multimorbidity, polypharmacy, morbidity and mortality, existing classification systems (mild to severe, usually based on estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria or urine albumin-creatinine ratio) and risk prediction models largely ignore the complexity of CKD, its risk factors and its outcomes. Improved subtype definition could improve prediction of outcomes and inform effective interventions. METHODS: We analysed individuals ≥18 years with incident and prevalent CKD (n = 350,067 and 195,422 respectively) from a population-based electronic health record resource (2006-2020; Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD). We included factors (n = 264 with 2670 derived variables), e.g. demography, history, examination, blood laboratory values and medications. Using a published framework, we identified subtypes through seven unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods (K-means, Diana, HC, Fanny, PAM, Clara, Model-based) with 66 (of 2670) variables in each dataset. We evaluated subtypes for: (i) internal validity (within dataset, across methods); (ii) prognostic validity (predictive accuracy for 5-year all-cause mortality and admissions); and (iii) medications (new and existing by British National Formulary chapter). FINDINGS: After identifying five clusters across seven approaches, we labelled CKD subtypes: 1. Early-onset, 2. Late-onset, 3. Cancer, 4. Metabolic, and 5. Cardiometabolic. Internal validity: We trained a high performing model (using XGBoost) that could predict disease subtypes with 95% accuracy for incident and prevalent CKD (Sensitivity: 0.81-0.98, F1 score:0.84-0.97). Prognostic validity: 5-year all-cause mortality, hospital admissions, and incidence of new chronic diseases differed across CKD subtypes. The 5-year risk of mortality and admissions in the overall incident CKD population were highest in cardiometabolic subtype: 43.3% (42.3-42.8%) and 29.5% (29.1-30.0%), respectively, and lowest in the early-onset subtype: 5.7% (5.5-5.9%) and 18.7% (18.4-19.1%). MEDICATIONS: Across CKD subtypes, the distribution of prescription medication classes at baseline varied, with highest medication burden in cardiometabolic and metabolic subtypes, and higher burden in prevalent than incident CKD. INTERPRETATION: In the largest CKD study using ML, to-date, we identified five distinct subtypes in individuals with incident and prevalent CKD. These subtypes have relevance to study of aetiology, therapeutics and risk prediction. FUNDING: AstraZeneca UK Ltd, Health Data Research UK.

Improving asthma care through implementation of the SENTINEL programme: findings from the pilot site.

Aim: Short-acting ß2-agonist (SABA) overuse adversely impacts asthma-related outcomes and the environment. The SABA rEductioN Through ImplemeNting Hull asthma guidELines (SENTINEL) programme aims to reduce SABA overuse through supported implementation of an adult asthma guideline, which advocates for a SABA-free maintenance and reliever therapy (MART)-preferred treatment where appropriate, across six primary care networks (PCNs) in the UK. We present findings on patient/disease characteristics, asthma prescribing patterns and exacerbation rates from the pilot PCN. Methods: Patients (aged ≥18 years, prescribed at least one inhaled therapy) and their prescribed asthma treatments were characterised using National Health Service data. Asthma treatments and exacerbations were analysed for three periods: 24‒12 months pre-, 12 months pre- and 12 months post-SENTINEL implementation (November 2020‒January 2021). Results: Of the 2571 registered asthma patients, 33.6% (n=864) underwent an asthma review, of whom 44.7% (n=386) were transitioned to MART. Fewer patients were prescribed three or more SABA canisters per year post-implementation in the overall asthma population (45.4% and 46.2% during 24‒12 months and 12 months pre-implementation, respectively, and 23.9% 12 months post-implementation), and in the two subgroups: 1) those who had an asthma review (74.5% and 83.6% during 24‒12 months and 12 months pre-implementation, respectively, and 26.5% post-implementation); and 2) those transitioned to MART following a review (76.4% and 86.5% during 24‒12 months and 12 months pre-implementation, respectively, and 16.3% post-implementation). A higher proportion of patients were exacerbation-free post-implementation in the overall asthma population and in the two subgroups. At least 71.5% of patients transitioned to MART were still prescribed MART 12 months post-implementation, of whom ≥86.7% were SABA-free. Conclusion: SENTINEL implementation led to reduced SABA prescribing, increased inhaled corticosteroid uptake and fewer asthma exacerbations. MART was considered appropriate for ∼50% of reviewed patients, with improved prescribing patterns sustained post-implementation.

Using national electronic health records for pandemic preparedness: validation of a parsimonious model for predicting excess deaths among those with COVID-19-a data-driven retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths. DESIGN: An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD); and linked EHR and COVID-19 data in England provided in NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment (TRE). PARTICIPANTS: In the development (CPRD) and validation (TRE) cohorts, we included 3.8 million and 35.1 million individuals aged ≥30 years, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: One-year all-cause excess deaths related to COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021. RESULTS: From 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021, there were 127,020 observed excess deaths. Observed RR was 4.34% (95% CI, 4.31-4.38) and IR was 6.27% (95% CI, 6.26-6.28). In the validation cohort, predicted one-year excess deaths were 100,338 compared with the observed 127,020 deaths with a ratio of predicted to observed excess deaths of 0.79. CONCLUSIONS: We show that a simple, parsimonious model incorporating baseline mortality risk, one-year IR and RR of the pandemic can be used for scenario-based prediction of excess deaths in the early stages of a pandemic. Our analyses show that EHR could inform pandemic planning and surveillance, despite limited use in emergency preparedness to date. Although infection dynamics are important in the prediction of mortality, future models should take greater account of underlying conditions.

Identification of key opportunities for optimising the management of high-risk COPD patients in the UK using the CONQUEST quality standards: an observational longitudinal study.

Background: This study compared management of high-risk COPD patients in the UK to national and international management recommendations and quality standards, including the COllaboratioN on QUality improvement initiative for achieving Excellence in STandards of COPD care (CONQUEST). The primary comparison was in 2019, but trends from 2000 to 2019 were also examined. Methods: Patients identified in the Optimum Patient Care Research Database were categorised as newly diagnosed (≤12 months after diagnosis), already diagnosed, and potential COPD (smokers having exacerbation-like events). High-risk patients had a history of ≥2 moderate or ≥1 severe exacerbations in the previous 12 months. Findings: For diagnosed patients, the median time between diagnosis and first meeting the high-risk criteria was 617 days (Q1-Q3: 3246). The use of spirometry for diagnosis increased dramatically after 2004 before plateauing and falling in recent years. In 2019, 41% (95% CI 39-44%; n = 550/1343) of newly diagnosed patients had no record of spirometry in the previous year, and 45% (95% CI 43-48%; n = 352/783) had no record of a COPD medication review within 6 months of treatment initiation or change. In 2019, 39% (n = 6893/17,858) of already diagnosed patients had no consideration of exacerbation rates, 46% (95% CI 45-47%; n = 4942/10,725) were not offered or referred for pulmonary rehabilitation, and 41% (95% CI 40-42%; n = 3026/7361) had not had a COPD review within 6 weeks of respiratory hospitalization. Interpretation: Opportunities for early diagnosis of COPD patients at high risk of exacerbations are being missed. Newly and already diagnosed patients at high-risk are not being assessed or treated promptly. There is substantial scope to improve the assessment and treatment optimisation of these patients. Funding: This study is conducted by the Observational & Pragmatic Research International Ltd and was co-funded by Optimum Patient Care and AstraZeneca. No funding was received by the Observational & Pragmatic Research Institute Pte Ltd (OPRI) for its contribution.

Frequency and Severity of Exacerbations of COPD Associated with Future Risk of Exacerbations and Mortality: A UK Routine Health Care Data Study.

Background: Studies have shown that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation events are related to future events; however, previous literature typically reports frequent vs infrequent exacerbations per patient-year and no studies have investigated increasing number of severe exacerbations in relation to COPD outcomes. Objective: To investigate the association between baseline frequency and severity of exacerbations and subsequent mortality and exacerbation risk in a COPD cohort. Methods: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum and Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify patients registered at general practices in the UK, who had a diagnosis of COPD, were over the age of 40 years, were smokers or ex-smokers and had data recorded from 2004 onwards. Frequency and severity of exacerbations in the baseline year were identified as moderate exacerbations (general practice events) and severe exacerbations (hospitalised events). Patients were categorised as having: none, 1 moderate only, 2 moderate only, 3+ moderate only, 1 severe (and any moderate), 2 severe (and any moderate), and 3+ severe (and any moderate exacerbations). Poisson regression was used to investigate the association between baseline exacerbation frequency/severity and exacerbation events and mortality over follow-up. Results: Overall, 340,515 COPD patients were included. Patients had higher rates of future exacerbations with increasing frequency and severity of baseline exacerbations compared to no baseline exacerbations. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) for patients with 1, 2, and 3+ moderate exacerbations compared to 0 exacerbations were 1.70 (95% CI 1.66-1.74), 2.31 (95% CI 2.24-2.37), and 3.52 (95% CI 3.43-3.62), respectively. Patients with increased frequency of baseline exacerbations were more likely to die from all-cause, COPD-related, and cardiovascular-related mortality in a graduated fashion. Conclusion: Increasing number and severity of exacerbations were associated with increasing risk of subsequent exacerbations, all-cause mortality and COPD-related mortality. Even a single moderate event increases the risk of future events, illustrating that every exacerbation counts.

Benralizumab Effectiveness in Severe Asthma Is Independent of Previous Biologic Use.

BACKGROUND: Benralizumab is an IL-5 receptor alpha-directed cytolytic mAb that depletes eosinophils, reducing exacerbations and oral corticosteroid (OCS) use, and improves asthma control for patients with severe eosinophilic asthma (SEA). Data on response in patients previously treated with other biologic therapies are limited. OBJECTIVE: To describe real-world clinical outcomes with benralizumab for patients with and without prior biologic use for uncontrolled SEA. METHODS: This retrospective study compared clinical outcomes before and after benralizumab initiation in adults with uncontrolled SEA with 3 or more asthma exacerbations in the previous 12 months or on maintenance OCS treatment. Outcomes included exacerbations, OCS use, patient-reported outcomes, and health care resource utilization, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations. RESULTS: In all, 208 patients were enrolled, including 90 (43.3%) with previous experience with an alternate biologic for SEA. Benralizumab led to an 81% reduction in exacerbation rate, with 48% of patients with previous exacerbations experiencing none after 48 weeks. Overall, 67% of patients requiring baseline maintenance OCS achieved greater than or equal to 50% reduction in daily OCS dosage, and 53% eliminated maintenance OCS. Clinically meaningful improvements in patient-reported outcomes were seen, with response at 4 weeks predicting longer-term benefits. Health care resource utilization also decreased. Improvements were observed irrespective of previous biologic experience, fractional exhaled nitric oxide concentrations, atopic status, or other baseline characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter real-world setting, patients with uncontrolled SEA achieved substantial improvements in all clinical outcome measures with benralizumab irrespective of previous biologic use, atopic status, or baseline fractional exhaled nitric oxide concentration.

CONQUEST Quality Standards: For the Collaboration on Quality Improvement Initiative for Achieving Excellence in Standards of COPD Care.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are managed predominantly in primary care. However, key opportunities to optimize treatment are often not realized due to unrecognized disease and delayed implementation of appropriate interventions for both diagnosed and undiagnosed individuals. The COllaboratioN on QUality improvement initiative for achieving Excellence in STandards of COPD care (CONQUEST) is the first-of-its-kind, collaborative, interventional COPD registry. It comprises an integrated quality improvement program focusing on patients (diagnosed and undiagnosed) at a modifiable and higher risk of COPD exacerbations. The first step in CONQUEST was the development of quality standards (QS). The QS will be imbedded in routine primary and secondary care, and are designed to drive patient-centered, targeted, risk-based assessment and management optimization. Our aim is to provide an overview of the CONQUEST QS, including how they were developed, as well as the rationale for, and evidence to support, their inclusion in healthcare systems. Methods: The QS were developed (between November 2019 and December 2020) by the CONQUEST Global Steering Committee, including 11 internationally recognized experts with a specialty and research focus in COPD. The process included an extensive literature review, generation of QS draft wording, three iterative rounds of review, and consensus. Results: Four QS were developed: 1) identification of COPD target population, 2) assessment of disease and quantification of future risk, 3) non-pharmacological and pharmacological intervention, and 4) appropriate follow-up. Each QS is followed by a rationale statement and a summary of current guidelines and research evidence relating to the standard and its components. Conclusion: The CONQUEST QS represent an important step in our aim to improve care for patients with COPD in primary and secondary care. They will help to transform the patient journey, by encouraging early intervention to identify, assess, optimally manage and followup COPD patients with modifiable high risk of future exacerbations.