The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics.

In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. We demonstrate that it takes one to several hundred years for a tuberculosis epidemic to rise, fall and reach a stable endemic level. Our results suggest that some of the decline of tuberculosis is simply due to the natural behaviour of an epidemic. Although other factors must also have contributed to the decline, these causal factors were constrained to operate within the slow response time dictated by the intrinsic dynamics.

Lymphocyte proliferative responses to human immunodeficiency virus antigens in vitro.

All HIV seronegative (HIV Ab-) and most HIV seropositive (HIV Ab+) individuals' lymphocytes failed to proliferate in primary cultures in response to purified HIV or to recombinant envelope and core antigens of HIV, even in the presence of recombinant interleukin 2 (rIL-2). Most HIV Ab- and HIV Ab+ individuals' lymphocytes, however, could proliferate or be induced by rIL-2 to proliferate in response to lysates of Escherichia coli or Saccharomyces cerevisiae. These findings indicate selective defects in lymphocyte proliferative responses to HIV antigens before the development of AIDS in which lymphocytes are unable to proliferate in response to any antigens. These defects in cell-mediated immune responses to HIV antigens are likely to play an important role in the pathobiology of HIV infections. Although intact HIV or glycosylated gp120 envelope protein of HIV are involved in these defects, a non-glycosylated recombinant form of the HIV gp120 envelope (ENV2-3) and p25 core proteins did not inhibit antigen- or mitogen-driven lymphocyte proliferation.

Mortality associated with mode of presentation in the acquired immune deficiency syndrome.

A population-based survival study was done for all cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosed in the city of San Francisco through May 1983. Follow-up was obtained for 165 of 173 diagnosed cases. Median survival among 75 patients presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) alone was 21 months. Median survival among 90 patients presenting with opportunistic infections, primarily Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, was 9 months; survival at 21 months was zero. Survival among patients presenting with both KS and opportunistic infections was not statistically different from survival among patients presenting with opportunistic infections only. When cases were divided into those diagnosed before and after May 1982, there was no significant improvement in survival from diagnosis in the more recently diagnosed cohort.

Tuberculosis prophylaxis in the homeless. A trial to improve adherence to referral.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to tuberculosis evaluation is poor in a high-risk population such as the homeless. OBJECTIVE: To test two interventions aimed at improving adherence to tuberculosis evaluation and to identify predictors of adherence. METHODS: We conducted a randomized clinical trial in shelters and food lines in the inner city of San Francisco, Calif. We randomized 244 eligible subjects infected with tuberculosis to (1) peer health adviser (assistance by a peer [n = 83]), (2) monetary incentive ($5 payment [n = 82]), or (3) usual care (referral slips and bus tokens only [n = 79]). The primary outcome of the study was adherence to a first follow-up appointment at the tuberculosis clinic, where subjects were evaluated for active tuberculosis and the need for isoniazid prophylaxis. RESULTS: Of the subjects assigned to a monetary incentive, 69 (84%) completed their first follow-up appointment, compared with 62 subjects (75%) assigned to a peer health adviser and 42 subjects (53%) assigned to usual care. Adherence was higher in the monetary incentive and peer health adviser groups than in the usual care group (P < .001 and P = .004, respectively). Patients not using intravenous drugs and patients 50 years of age or older were more likely to adhere to a first follow-up appointment (odds ratios [95% confidence intervals], 2.5 [1.3 to 5.0] and 3.3 [1.2 to 8.8], respectively). Among the 173 tuberculosis-infected subjects who completed their appointment, isoniazid therapy was started for 72 individuals, and three cases of active tuberculosis were identified. CONCLUSION: A monetary incentive or a peer health adviser is effective in improving adherence to a first follow-up appointment in homeless individuals infected with tuberculosis. A monetary incentive appears to be superior. Intravenous drug users and young individuals are at high risk for poor adherence to referral.

Adherence to isoniazid prophylaxis in the homeless: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To test 2 interventions to improve adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis in homeless adults. We compared (1) biweekly directly observed preventive therapy using a $5 monetary incentive and (2) biweekly directly observed preventive therapy using a peer health adviser, with (3) usual care at the tuberculosis clinic. METHODS: Randomized controlled trial in tuberculosis-infected homeless adults. Outcomes were completion of 6 months of isoniazid treatment and number of months of isoniazid dispensed. RESULTS: A total of 118 subjects were randomized to the 3 arms of the study. Completion in the monetary incentive arm was significantly better than in the peer health adviser arm (P = .01) and the usual care arm (P = .04), by log-rank test. Overall, 19 subjects (44%) in the monetary incentive arm completed preventive therapy compared with 7 (19%) in the peer health adviser arm (P = .02) and 10 (26%) in the usual care arm (P = .11). The median number of months of isoniazid dispensed was 5 in the monetary incentive arm vs 2 months in the peer health adviser arm (P = .005) and 2 months in the usual care arm (P = .04). In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of completion were being in the monetary incentive arm (odds ratio, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.11-5.94) and residence in a hotel or other stable housing at entry into the study vs residence on the street or in a shelter at entry (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.00-5.47). CONCLUSIONS: A $5 biweekly cash incentive improved adherence to tuberculosis preventive therapy compared with a peer intervention or usual care. Living in a hotel or apartment at the start of treatment also predicted the completion of therapy.

Antibody to the retrovirus associated with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Presence in presumably healthy San Franciscans who died unexpectedly.

We performed autopsies and serologic tests in 189 subjects (152 men and 37 women) between 20 and 50 years of age with no history of immunosuppression who died unexpectedly and whose bodies were referred to the San Francisco coroner's office. Forty-eight of the 88 single men for whom addresses were available lived in areas of the city with a high incidence of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). In addition, 36 of the subjects (30 men) were intravenous drug abusers. Antibody to the retrovirus associated with AIDS was present in 23 (18%) of the 121 subjects whose sera were tested. However, neither pathologic nor laboratory manifestations of AIDS were present in any of the 189 subjects who underwent autopsy. These results suggest that antibody to the retrovirus is common but subclinical manifestations of AIDS are uncommon in San Francisco, a city where the incidence of clinical AIDS is high.

Immune activation markers and AIDS prognosis.

Four assays for serum levels of cellular products of immune activation were examined as prognostic markers for AIDS in a prospective study of asymptomatic HIV-seropositive homosexual men. Baseline serum values of beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M), neopterin, soluble CD8 (sCD8), and soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) for 185 men were examined univariately and multivariately as predictors of AIDS during 36 months of follow-up. Thirty-three cases of AIDS (18%) were diagnosed during the follow-up period. All four assays correlated highly with each other (r = 0.48-0.63), and all four were good univariate predictors of AIDS and comparable to CD4 lymphocyte count. beta 2M, neopterin, and sCD8 predicted AIDS independently of both CD4 count and HIV p24 antigen or p24 antibody in multivariate analysis. Within the range of CD4 count 200-499 x 10(6) cells/l, an immune activation marker used in combination with an assay for p24 antigen identifies those at 3-6% risk of AIDS over 36 months (low risk on both assays) and those at 63-86% risk (high risk on both assays). These results can be used to guide physicians and patients making decisions about treating asymptomatic HIV infection with zidovudine in individuals with CD4 lymphocyte count of 200-499 x 10(6) cells/l.

HIV seroconversion in intravenous drug users in San Francisco, 1985-1990.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the HIV seroconversion rate, risk factors for seroconversion, and changes in risk behavior over time in intravenous drug users (IVDU) in San Francisco, 1985-1990. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: All methadone maintenance and 21-day methadone detoxification programs in San Francisco. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2351 heterosexual IVDU, of whom 681 were seronegative at first visit and seen at least twice ('repeaters'). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: HIV seroconversion rates, risk factors for seroconversion, and changes in behavior. RESULTS: The HIV seroconversion rate in repeaters was 1.9% per person-year (ppy) of follow-up [2.1% in women versus 1.7% in men (not significant); 4% in African Americans versus 1% in whites (P = 0.006); 3.9% ppy in the first third of the study, 1.2% in the second (P = 0.007), and 1.9% in the last (not significant)]. Risk factors for seroconversion were five or more sexual partners per year [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.6; P = 0.02], use of shooting gallery ever (HR = 2.9; P = 0.02), and less than 1 year (lifetime) in methadone maintenance (HR = 2.7; P = 0.02). Self-reported intravenous cocaine use fell from 33 to 15% over 5 years, shooting gallery use fell from 19 to 6%, and the proportion with five or more sexual partners fell from 25 to 10%. Bleach use rose to 75% of needle-sharers. CONCLUSIONS: The 1985-1990 HIV seroconversion rate in IVDU (1.9% ppy) was comparable to that in San Francisco cohorts of homosexual men (1.4% ppy). A decline in HIV seroconversion coincided with changes in risk behavior. Stable attendance of methadone maintenance was highly protective: the seroconversion rate in subjects with 1 year or more in methadone was 12% ppy.

Differences in laboratory values in HIV infection by sex, race, and risk group.

OBJECTIVES: To determine differences in CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocyte values, beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M), and HIV p24 antigenemia by sex and race among HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative injecting drug users (IDU), and to compare these values with those in homosexual men of equivalent status. DESIGN: Baseline values from a cohort of 206 HIV-seropositive and 173 HIV-seronegative IDU were compared with values from a cohort of 288 HIV-seropositive homosexual men and 176 HIV-seronegative controls, who were prospectively followed at 6-month intervals, to examine differences in laboratory values in HIV-infected individuals by sex, race, and risk group. METHODS: Among HIV-seropositives, we compared white and black IDU only (n = 167), and white male IDU (n = 38) with white homosexual men (n = 256). Laboratory values from the cohort of homosexual men at 24, 36 and 48 months of follow-up were compared with IDU values. RESULTS: HIV-infected female IDU had significantly higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts (P < 0.03) and percentages of CD4+ lymphocytes (P < 0.004) than male IDU, resulting in higher CD4:CD8 ratios (P < 0.002). White IDU had significantly higher serum beta 2M levels than black IDU (P < 0.02). Black female IDU were much less likely to be HIV p24-antigenemic (1%) than all other groups (P < 0.005). Compared with homosexual men, male IDU had significantly elevated beta 2M levels (0.58 mg/l higher). When controlled for CD4+ lymphocyte values as a surrogate for length of time HIV-infected, beta 2M and HIV p24 antigenemia differences persisted. CONCLUSIONS: These differences should be considered when HIV p24 antigen, CD4+ lymphocyte counts and beta 2M levels are used as surrogate markers in clinical trials and management of HIV disease.

Absence of HIV-1 DNA in high-risk seronegative individuals using high-input polymerase chain reaction.

Evidence of frequent HIV-1 infections in antibody-negative, high-risk individuals (so-called 'silent' infections) remains controversial. To evaluate whether these discrepant results may be the consequence of intermittent detection of rare infected cells (low viral load) preceding seroconversion, we developed a modification of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique which enabled analysis of 10-fold greater amounts of cellular DNA per reaction than standard PCR (2 x 10(6) rather than 0.2 x 10(6) input cells). This technique allowed consistent detection of HIV-1 provirus in two seropositive individuals who had repeatedly tested negative by standard-input PCR. However, results were negative when high-input PCR was applied to 51 specimens from 39 selected high-risk seronegative individuals. These results suggest that variations in viral load preceding or in the absence of seroconversion probably do not explain discrepant evidence regarding silent HIV-1 infection.

Increasing age is associated with faster progression to neoplasms but not opportunistic infections in HIV-infected homosexual men.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the associations of age and progression rates to AIDS-defining neoplasms and opportunistic infections (OI) in HIV-infected homosexual men. METHODS: Data from 407 homosexual men with documented dates of HIV seroconversion participating in cohort studies from four geographic locations were merged. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were conducted with respect to the association of age with time from seroconversion to the first AIDS-defining neoplasm and OI. RESULTS: Among the 407 participants, 139 (34%) were diagnosed with AIDS; 45 (11%) with neoplasms and 90 (22%) with OI. Older age at seroconversion was significantly associated with faster progression to neoplasms, but not to OI. For each 10-year increase in age the risk for neoplasms increased 1.65-fold [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-2.43], after adjustment for clinical treatments. For OI this risk estimate was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.72-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing age is associated with faster progression to AIDS-defining neoplasms, but not with progression to OI. This has not been previously reported and may explain conflicting results in other studies among homosexual men that considered AIDS as a single entity. Our findings suggest that age and AIDS manifestations should be considered, particularly in the context of natural history studies, clinical trials and mathematical modelling.

Lack of consistency between five definitions of nonprogression in cohorts of HIV-infected seroconverters.

OBJECTIVE: To identify appropriate criteria for characterizing HIV-infected nonprogressors. DESIGN: Five definitions were compared as follows: (1) last CD4 count > 500 x 10(6)/l; (2) two most recent CD4 counts > 500 x 10(6)/l; (3) calculated CD4 count based on linear regression > 500 x 10(6)/l; (4) CD4 slope > or = 0 with no antiretroviral use; (5) all CD4 counts > 500 x 10(6)/l, decline in CD4 slope < 5 cells per year, no antiretroviral use. PARTICIPANTS: Five prospective cohorts of homosexual men with documented dates of HIV-1 seroconversion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions of nonprogressors were calculated 7, 8, 9 and 10 years following seroconversion (n = 285). Definitions were evaluated with respect to consistency over time and across sites. Subjects lacking CD4 counts within 3 years preceding end of follow-up were excluded. RESULTS: Across sites, proportions of nonprogressors ranged from 1% (definition 5) to 17.5% (definition 1) 10 years after seroconversion. Definitions based on absolute CD4 counts (definitions 1-3) had higher proportions and were less consistent than those based on stable slopes (definitions 4 and 5). For each definition, proportions decreased as follow-up increased, but were most stable for definition 4 (3%). Site differences decreased as follow-up increased, but remained nearly threefold for definitions 1-3. None of the definitions classified the same subjects as nonprogressors at any timepoint. CONCLUSIONS: Observations regarding nonprogression are highly dependent on the definition and the duration of follow-up. Our findings highlight methodological challenges which will need to be overcome in natural history studies of nonprogression.

Differences in time from HIV seroconversion to CD4+ lymphocyte end-points and AIDS in cohorts of homosexual men.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the decline in CD4+ counts in relation to the incidence of AIDS in different cohorts of homosexual men and to quantify possible consequences of laboratory variation in CD4+ measurement. METHODS: Our study includes 403 men with well documented dates of HIV seroconversion originating from five cohort studies among homosexual men. Differences in time from HIV seroconversion to the first CD4+ count dropping < 500 or 200 x 10(6)/l and to AIDS were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. RESULTS: We found considerable differences between cohorts in CD4+ depletion, but not in the incidence of AIDS (1987 definition). CONCLUSIONS: Variation in CD4+ depletion appears to be mainly the result of laboratory differences. Policy recommendations on a basis of CD4+ counts probably requires a calibration of measurement. The 1993 AIDS case definition leads to a site-specific shortening of the incubation time, which complicates the study of the natural history of HIV infection and of trends in the AIDS epidemic.

Modeling the impact of modified directly observed antiretroviral therapy on HIV suppression and resistance, disease progression, and death.

A simulation model that used Markov assumptions with Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was evaluated 1500 times at 10,000 iterations. Modified directly observed therapy (MDOT) for human immunodeficiency virus was assumed to improve adherence to therapy to 90% of prescribed doses. The impact of MDOT interventions on modeled biological and clinical outcomes was compared for populations with mean rates of adherence (i.e., the mean percentage of prescribed doses taken by each member of the population who had not discontinued therapy) of 40%, 50%, 60%, and 70%. MDOT reduced the risk of virological failure, development of opportunistic infections, and death, yet increased the risk of drug resistance, for each adherence distribution among persons with detectable plasma virus loads. Over 1500 trials, for a population with 50% adherence to therapy and a 12-month period, MDOT increased the median rate of virological suppression from 13.2% to 37.0% of patients, decreased the rate of opportunistic infection from 5.7% to 4.3% of patients, and decreased the death rate from 2.9% to 2.2% of patients. In the same population, however, MDOT increased the rate of new drug resistance mutations from 1.00 to 1.41 per person during the 12-month period. The impact of MDOT was smaller in populations with higher levels of adherence. MDOT interventions will likely improve clinical outcomes in populations with low levels of adherence but may not be effective at preventing drug resistance in treatment-experienced populations. MDOT may be more effective in preventing drug resistance with potent regimens in treatment-naive patients.

Relationship of CD4 counts to neurophysiological function in HIV-1--infected homosexual men.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship of immune dysfunction to neurophysiological measures of brain-stem conduction time. DESIGN: Three-year longitudinal prospective cohort study; results of time 1 analyses reported. SETTING: San Francisco (California) General Hospital, Departments of Psychiatry and Epidemiology. PATIENTS: Volunteer sample of 55 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive and 37 HIV-negative homosexual men recruited from a larger cohort of homosexual men followed up since 1983 at San Francisco General Hospital as part of an ongoing study of the natural history and course of HIV type 1 infection. INTERVENTION: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Auditory brain-stem responses and somatosensory evoked potentials for subjects stratified separately on HIV serostatus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention symptom groupings, and absolute CD4 counts. RESULTS: The HIV-positive subjects had an increased wave III-V interpeak latency of the right ear auditory brain-stem response compared with the HIV-negative subjects (t test, P < .05). There were no significant differences among the three Centers for Disease Control and Prevention groupings on any evoked potential measure. When HIV-positive subjects were stratified on a measure of immune functioning, ie, CD4 counts, individuals with greater immune suppression were more impaired on speed of auditory brain-stem conduction time (Mann-Whitney U test, P < .05). Furthermore, 85% of subjects impaired on this evoked potential measure had CD4 counts of less than 0.40 x 10(9)/L (400/microL), whereas only 15% of those impaired on this measure had CD4 counts of greater than 0.40 x 10(9)/L. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic HIV-positive subjects who do not have evidence of immune suppression do not appear to be at greater risk for neurophysiological impairment than HIV-negative subjects. The HIV-positive individuals who are immune suppressed (even while asymptomatic) appear to have an increased likelihood of central conduction time slowing as measured by evoked potential procedures.

Early predictors of survival in symptomatic HIV-infected persons treated with high-dose zidovudine.

The survival times of 246 patients treated with high-dose zidovudine beginning in 1986 were obtained through November 1988. We analyzed clinical and laboratory predictors of survival as measured before initiation of therapy and during the first 32 weeks of therapy. In a multivariate proportional-hazards model, we found significant independent predictive abilities for four pretherapy measurements (AIDS versus ARC diagnosis, Karnofsky performance score, age, and hemoglobin) and four measurements made during therapy (change in log CD4 lymphocyte count from pretherapy to week 24, CD8 lymphocyte count at week 24, rate of decline of hemoglobin over the first 3 months of therapy, and rate of decline in white blood count over the first 6 months of therapy). The presence of three predictors measured during therapy that are statistically significant when controlled for changes in CD4 count suggests that the use of other measures in addition to CD4 counts may substantially improve the prediction of long-term survival based on early response of surrogate markers to therapy.

Results of a one year longitudinal study of HIV antibody test notification from the San Francisco General Hospital cohort.

We examined the psychological impact of HIV antibody testing in 107 homosexual men in San Francisco. Seventy-eight percent of the seropositives but only 43% of the seronegatives correctly anticipated their results. Twelve months after notification (but not earlier), notified seropositives reported significantly greater increases in total distress than nonnotified controls. However, notified seronegatives demonstrated significantly lower levels of hopelessness than nonnotified controls at every follow-up assessment. Thus, knowledge of HIV antibody status appears to dispel a sense of gloom in persons who incorrectly believe themselves to be infected with HIV, but does not appear to induce significant distress in those whose expectation of a positive result is confirmed. Both groups reported lower distress than men with ARC or AIDS, suggesting that distress was related more to symptomatology than knowing antibody status. These results suggest the benefits of HIV testing for the considerable proportion of seronegative subjects believing themselves to be seropositive and should be weighted against the more limited induction of distress in seropositives who receive confirmation of their test result expectation. The benefits of testing are also supported by increasing knowledge of the usefulness of early intervention in HIV disease.

Immune function and neuropsychological performance in HIV-1-infected homosexual men.

This study explores the relationship of immune dysfunction to the neuropsychological performance of individuals infected with HIV-1. Fifty-five HIV-positive homosexual men and 37 negative homosexual controls were evaluated using neuropsychological measures, physical exams, and measures of immune functioning. There were no significant differences favoring HIV-negative subjects over HIV-positive subjects. HIV-positive subjects, in fact, performed slightly better on attention and memory procedures. The HIV-positive subjects were then stratified according to the Centers for Disease Control symptom groupings (Group II, asymptomatic, n = 19; Group III, lymphadenopathy, n = 17; and Group IVA or C-2, symptomatic, non-AIDS, (n = 19). There were no significant neuropsychological differences among the three CDC groups. The HIV-positive subjects were also stratified on two measures of immune functioning: absolute CD4 counts (< 200, 201-400, > 400) and beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M) (> or = 5.0, 3.0-5.0, < 3.0). Individuals with greater immune compromise, as measured by beta 2M, were more impaired on measures of attention and memory and had greater overall neuropsychological impairment (p < 0.05). Furthermore, 57% of the subjects who were abnormal on beta 2M were also impaired on measures of attention and memory, whereas only 14% of those with normal beta 2M were impaired on these same measures (p < 0.05). These results suggest that HIV-positive asymptomatics without evidence of immune compromise do not appear to be at greater risk of cognitive impairment than HIV-negative controls. However, for those HIV-positive individuals who are immune-compromised (even while asymptomatic), there is increased risk of neuropsychological impairment. These results also suggest that knowledge of serostatus and the use of the CDC classification system alone are insufficient in exploring the development of neuropsychiatric changes in HIV-1 infection.

Use of T lymphocyte subset analysis in the case definition for AIDS.

Infection with HIV-1 and < 200 CD4+ lymphocytes/mm3 has been proposed as an AIDS-defining condition. We have evaluated the effects of using this and other T-cell subset measurements, in the diagnosis of AIDS in two cohorts of homosexual/bisexual men in San Francisco. Among 762 HIV-1 infected men, 200 CD4+ lymphocytes/mm3 corresponded to 13 percent CD4+ lymphocytes and a CD4+/CD8+ ratio of 0.23. If these AIDS-defining criteria had been implemented in mid-1991, the number of living AIDS cases would have increased by 106 (212%), 133 (266%), and 136 (272%), respectively. When these criteria were first met, either before or in the absence of a clinical AIDS diagnosis, about half of the subjects were asymptomatic and the median clinically AIDS-free interval was approximately 2 years. Using two consecutive tests or pair-wise combinations of criteria reduced the number of cases identified by testing error or transient biological variation, but the number of living AIDS cases would still be increased more than twofold. Finally, any AIDS case definition using a specific T-cell subset value will be compromised by the inherent variability in these measurements and the substantial overlap in the results for those with and without clinical manifestations of HIV infection.

Relationship of beta 2 microglobulin and CD4 counts to neuropsychological performance in HIV-1-infected intravenous drug users.

This study explores the relationship of immune dysfunction to the neuropsychological performance of i.v. drug users (IVDUs) infected with HIV-1. Ninety-seven HIV-positive and 45 HIV-negative former IVDUs on methadone maintenance were evaluated using neuropsychological measures, physical examinations, and measures of immune function, including absolute CD4 counts and beta 2 microglobulin (beta 2-M). There were no significant differences between the HIV-positive and HIV-negative subjects on any single neuropsychological domain. There was, however, a significant group difference on a composite indicator of neuropsychological impairment, with 32% of HIV-positive subjects demonstrating some degree of overall impairment compared with only 13% of HIV-negative subjects. HIV-positive subjects were then stratified according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) symptom groupings: group II, asymptomatic, n = 29; group III, lymphadenopathy, n = 30; and group IV A or C-2, symptomatic, non-AIDS, n = 38. There were no significant neuropsychological differences among the three CDC groups. The HIV-positive subjects were also stratified on absolute CD4 counts (< or = 200, 201-400, and > 400) and beta 2-M (> or = 5, 3-5, and < 3). Individuals with greater immune compromise (CD4, < 200, beta 2-M, > or = 5) were more impaired on measures of motor functioning. beta 2-M was found to be a better predictor than CD4 count of impaired neuropsychological performance. Furthermore, individuals with beta 2-M values > or = 5 have more than a threefold increase in the incidence of neuropsychological impairment than those with beta 2-M values < 3.0. These results suggest that beta 2-M may serve as a useful clinical marker for the development of neuropsychological impairment and that the risk of such impairment increases as the immune system weakens.