Clade I mpox virus genomic diversity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2024: Predominance of zoonotic transmission.

Recent reports raise concerns on the changing epidemiology of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). High-quality genomes were generated for 337 patients from 14/26 provinces to document whether the increase in number of cases is due to zoonotic spillover events or viral evolution, with enrichment of APOBEC3 mutations linked to human adaptation. Our study highlights two patterns of transmission contributing to the source of human cases. All new sequences from the eastern South Kivu province (n = 17; 4.8%) corresponded to the recently described clade Ib, associated with sexual contact and sustained human-to-human transmission. By contrast, all other genomes are clade Ia, which exhibits high genetic diversity with low numbers of APOBEC3 mutations compared with clade Ib, suggesting multiple zoonotic introductions. The presence of multiple clade I variants in urban areas highlights the need for coordinated international response efforts and more studies on the transmission and the reservoir of mpox.

Rhabdomyolysis, Acute Kidney Injury, and Mortality in Ebola Virus Disease: Retrospective Analysis of Cases From the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019.

BACKGROUND: Skeletal muscle injury in Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been reported, but its association with morbidity and mortality remains poorly defined. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients admitted to 2 EVD treatment units over an 8-month period in 2019 during an EVD epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. RESULTS: An overall 333 patients (median age, 30 years; 58% female) had at least 1 creatine kinase (CK) measurement (n = 2229; median, 5/patient [IQR, 1-11]). Among patients, 271 (81%) had an elevated CK level (>380 U/L); 202 (61%) had rhabdomyolysis (CK >1000 IU/L); and 45 (14%) had severe rhabdomyolysis (≥5000 U/L). Among survivors, the maximum CK level was a median 1600 (IQR, 550-3400), peaking 3.4 days after admission (IQR, 2.3-5.5) and decreasing thereafter. Among fatal cases, the CK rose monotonically until death, with a median maximum CK level of 2900 U/L (IQR, 1500-4900). Rhabdomyolysis at admission was an independent predictor of acute kidney injury (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.2-3.8]; P = .0065) and mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.03-2.9]; P = .037). CONCLUSIONS: Rhabdomyolysis is associated with acute kidney injury and mortality in patients with EVD. These findings may inform clinical practice by identifying laboratory monitoring priorities and highlighting the importance of fluid management.

Rapid regional mobile laboratory response and genomic monkeypox virus (MPXV) surveillance in seven East African Community partner states, August 2024: preparedness activities for the ongoing outbreak.

The East African Community (EAC) is experiencing an unprecedented, emerging mpox outbreak since July 2024 in five of eight partner states. We highlight rapid regional response measures, initiated August 2024 coordinated by EAC: field deployment of six mobile laboratories in Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, South Sudan to high-risk areas, donation of one mobile laboratory to Democratic Republic of the Congo and genomic monkeypox virus (MPXV) surveillance support. These interventions aim to limit local mpox spread and support international containment.

Efficiency of Field Laboratories for Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak during Chronic Insecurity, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020.

During the 10th outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale strategically positioned 13 decentralized field laboratories with dedicated equipment to quickly detect cases as the outbreak evolved. The laboratories were operated by national staff, who quickly handed over competencies and skills to local persons to successfully manage future outbreaks. Laboratories analyzed ≈230,000 Ebola diagnostic samples under stringent biosafety measures, documentation, and database management. Field laboratories diversified their activities (diagnosis, chemistry and hematology, survivor follow-up, and genomic sequencing) and shipped 127,993 samples from the field to a biorepository in Kinshasa under good conditions. Deploying decentralized and well-equipped laboratories run by local personnel in at-risk countries for Ebola virus disease outbreaks is an efficient response; all activities are quickly conducted in the field.

Added Value of an Anti-Ebola Serology for the Management of Clinically Suspected Ebola Virus Disease Patients Discharged as Negative in an Epidemic Context.

BACKGROUND: Survivors from Ebola virus disease (EVD) may be at the origin of EVD resurgence. METHODS: Simultaneous reactivity to at least 2 Ebola virus or Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) antigens was detected in 11 of 488 (2.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-4.0) suspected EVD patients who were discharged as negative after 2 consecutive negative tests during the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. RESULTS: After extrapolating the total number of individuals discharged as negative during the entire outbreak, we estimated a total of 1314 additional missed Ebola cases. CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the usefulness of an EBOV serology analysis and the importance of extending epidemic surveillance to clinically suspected cases who were discharged as negative.

Postmortem Surveillance for Ebola Virus Using OraQuick Ebola Rapid Diagnostic Tests, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019-2020.

After a pilot study, we tested 443 cadavers using OraQuick Ebola rapid diagnostic tests during surveillance after the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. No false negative and 2% false-positive results were reported. Quickly returning results and engaging the community enabled timely public health actions.

Impact of Ebola epidemics on the daily operation of existing systems in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: a brief review.

AIMS: to provide insights into the recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks on different aspects of daily life in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and propose possible solutions. METHODS: We collected information regarding the effects of EVD outbreaks on existing systems in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We searched the PubMed database using the terms "impact effect Ebola outbreak system", "Management Ebola Poor Resources Settings", "Health Economic Challenges Ebola" and "Economic impact Ebola systems." Only studies focusing on epidemiology, diagnostics, sequencing, vaccination, therapeutics, ecology, work force, governance, healthcare provision and health system, and social, political, and economic aspects were considered. The search included the electronic archives of EVD outbreak reports from government and partners. RESULTS: EVD outbreaks negatively impacts the functions of countries. The disruption in activities is proportional to the magnitude of the epidemic and slows down the transport of goods, decreases the region's tourist appeal, and increases 'brain drain'. Most low- and medium-income countries, such as the DRC, do not have a long-term holistic emergency plan for unexpected situations or sufficient resources to adequately implement countermeasures against EVD outbreaks. Although the DRC has acquired sufficient expertise in diagnostics, genomic sequencing, administration of vaccines and therapeutics, clinical trials, and research activities, deployment, operation, and maintenance of these expertise and associated tools remains a concern. LIMITATIONS: Despite the data search extension, additional reports addressing issues related to social aspects of EVD outbreaks in DRC were not retrieved. CONCLUSION: National leadership has not yet taken the lead in strategic, operational, or financial aspects. Therefore, national leaders should double their efforts and awareness to encourage local fundraising, sufficient budget al.location, infrastructure construction, equipment provision, and staff training, to effectively support a holistic approach in response to outbreaks, providing effective results, and all types of research activities.

Effect of anti-Ebola virus monoclonal antibodies on endogenous antibody production in survivors of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The use of specific anti-Ebola virus therapy, especially monoclonal antibodies, has improved survival in patients with Ebola virus disease. We aimed to assess the effect of monoclonal antibodies on anti-Ebola virus antibody responses in survivors of the 2018-20 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. METHODS: In this observational prospective cohort study, participants were enrolled at three Ebola survivor clinics in Beni, Mangina, and Butembo (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Eligible children and adults notified as survivors of Ebola virus disease (ie, who had confirmed Ebola virus disease [RT-PCR positive in blood sample] and were subsequently declared recovered from the virus [RT-PCR negative in blood sample] with a certificate of recovery from Ebola virus disease issued by an Ebola treatment centre) during the 2018-20 Ebola virus disease outbreak were invited to participate in the study. Participants were recruited on discharge from Ebola treatment centres and followed up for 12-18 months depending on recruitment date. Routine follow-up assessments were done at 1, 3, 6, and 12-18 months after inclusion. We collected sociodemographic (age, sex, visit site), clinical (anti-Ebola virus drugs), and laboratory data (RT-PCR and Ct values). The primary outcome was the antibody concentrations against Ebola virus glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, and 40-kDa viral protein antigens over time assessed in all participants. Antibody concentrations were measured by the multiplex immunoassay, and the association between anti-Ebola virus antibody levels and the relevant exposures, such as anti-Ebola virus disease drugs (ansuvimab, REGN-EB3, ZMapp, or remdesivir), was assessed using both linear and logistic mixed regression models. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04409405. FINDINGS: Between April 16, 2020, and Oct 18, 2021, 1168 survivors were invited to participate in the Les Vainqueurs d'Ebola cohort study. 787 survivors were included in the study, of whom 358 had data available for antibody responses. 85 (24%) of 358 were seronegative for at least two Ebola virus antigens on discharge from the Ebola treatment centre. The antibody response over time fluctuated but a continuous decrease in an overall linear evolution was observed. Quantitative modelling showed a decrease in nucleoprotein, glycoprotein, and VP-40 antibody concentrations over time (p<0·0001) with the fastest decrease observed for glycoprotein. The probability of being seropositive for at least two antigens after 36 months was 53·6% (95% CI 51·6-55·6) for participants who received ansuvimab, 73·5% (71·5-75·5) for participants who received REGN-EB3, 76·8% (74·8-78·8) for participants who received remdesivir, and 78·5% (76·5-80·5) for participants who received ZMapp. INTERPRETATION: Almost a quarter of survivors were seronegative on discharge from the Ebola treatment centre and antibody concentrations decreased rapidly over time. These results indicate that monoclonal antibodies might negatively affect the production of anti-Ebola virus antibodies in survivors of Ebola virus disease which could increase the risk of reinfection or reactivation. FUNDING: The French National Agency for AIDS Research-Emergent Infectious Diseases-The French National Institute of Health and Medical Research, the French National Research Institute for Development, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dysglycaemia in Ebola virus disease: a retrospective analysis from the 2018 to 2020 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is associated with multisystem organ failure and high mortality. Severe hypoglycaemia is common, life-threatening, and correctable in critically ill patients, but glucose monitoring may be limited in EVD treatment units. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of patients admitted to EVD treatment units in Butembo and Katwa, Eastern DRC. Glucose measurements were done using a handheld glucometer at the bedside or using the Piccolo xpress Chemistry Analyzer on venous samples. FINDINGS: 384 patients (median age 30 years (interquartile range, IQR, 20-45), 57% female) and 6422 glucose measurements (median 11 per patient, IQR 4-22) were included in the analysis. Severe hypoglycaemia (≤2.2 mmol/L) and hyperglycaemia (>10 mmol/L) were recorded at least once during the ETU admission in 97 (25%) and 225 (59%) patients, respectively. A total of 2004 infusions of glucose-containing intravenous solutions were administered to 302 patients (79%) with a median cumulative dose of 175g (IQR 100-411). The overall case fatality rate was 157/384 (41%) and was 2.2-fold higher (95% CI 1.3-3.8) in patients with severe hypoglycaemia than those without hypoglycaemia (p = 0.0042). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, periods of severe hypoglycaemia (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 6.2, 95% CI 3.2-12, p < 0.0001) and moderate hypoglycaemia (aHR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9-4.8, p < 0.0001) were associated with elevated mortality. INTERPRETATION: Hypoglycaemia is common in EVD, requires repeated correction with intravenous dextrose solutions, and is associated with mortality. FUNDING: This study was not supported by any specific funding.

Immunogenicity of an Extended Dose Interval for the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola Vaccine Regimen in Adults and Children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo, a phase 3 trial of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine (DRC-EB-001) commenced in Goma, with participants being offered the two-dose regimen given 56 days apart. Suspension of trial activities in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic led to some participants receiving a late dose 2 outside the planned interval. Blood samples were collected from adults, adolescents, and children prior to their delayed dose 2 vaccination and 21 days after, and tested for IgG binding antibodies against Ebola virus glycoprotein using the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group (FANG) ELISA. Results from 133 participants showed a median two-dose interval of 9.3 months. The pre-dose 2 antibody geometric mean concentration (GMC) was 217 ELISA Units (EU)/mL (95% CI 157; 301) in adults, 378 EU/mL (281; 510) in adolescents, and 558 EU/mL (471; 661) in children. At 21 days post-dose 2, the GMC increased to 22,194 EU/mL (16,726; 29,449) in adults, 37,896 EU/mL (29,985; 47,893) in adolescents, and 34,652 EU/mL (27,906; 43,028) in children. Participants receiving a delayed dose 2 had a higher GMC at 21 days post-dose 2 than those who received a standard 56-day regimen in other African trials, but similar to those who received the regimen with an extended interval.

Global genomic surveillance of monkeypox virus.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is endemic in Western and Central Africa and, in May 2022, a clade IIb lineage (B.1) caused a global outbreak outside Africa, resulting in its detection in 116 countries/territories. To understand the global phylogenetics of MPXV, we analysed all available MPXV sequences, including 10,670 sequences from 65 countries collected between 1958 and 2024. Our analysis reveals high mobility of clade I viruses within Central Africa, sustained human-to-human transmission of clade IIb lineage A viruses within the Eastern Mediterranean region, and distinct mutational signatures that can distinguish sustained human-to-human from animal-to-animal transmission. Moreover, distinct clade I sequences from Sudan suggest local MPXV circulation in areas of Eastern Africa over the past four decades. Our study underscores the importance of genomic surveillance in tracking spatiotemporal dynamics of MXPV clades and the need to strengthen such surveillance, including in some parts of Eastern Africa.

Lower Limb Paralysis Associated with Chikungunya in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Survey Report.

Polio-associated paralysis is one of the diseases under national surveillance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Although it has become relatively rare due to control measures, non-polio paralysis cases are still reported and constitute a real problem, especially for etiological diagnosis, which is necessary for better management and response. From September 2022 to April 2023, we investigated acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases in Kinshasa following an alert from the Provincial Division of Health. All suspected cases and their close contacts were investigated and sampled. Among the 57 sampled patients, 21 (36.8%) were suspects, and 36 (63.2%) were contacts. We performed several etiological tests available in the laboratory, targeting viruses, including Poliovirus, Influenza virus, SARS-CoV-2, Enterovirus, and arboviruses. No virus material was detected, but the serological test (ELISA) detected antibodies against Chikungunya Virus, i.e., 47.4% (27/57) for IgM and 22.8% (13/57) for IgG. Among suspected cases, we detected 33.3% (7/21) with anti-Chikungunya IgM and 14.3% (3/21) of anti-Chikungunya IgG. These results highlight the importance of enhancing the epidemiological surveillance of Chikungunya.

Cholera Deaths During Outbreaks in Uvira, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 10-35 Months After Mass Vaccination.

Our understanding of the burden and drivers of cholera mortality is hampered by limited surveillance and confirmation capacity. Leveraging enhanced clinical and laboratory surveillance in the cholera-endemic community of Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, we describe cholera deaths across 3 epidemics between September 2021 and September 2023 following mass vaccination.

Fatal meningoencephalitis associated with Ebola virus persistence in two survivors of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a case report study.

BACKGROUND: During the 2018-20 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, thousands of patients received unprecedented vaccination, monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapy, or both, leading to a large number of survivors. We aimed to report the clinical, virological, viral genomic, and immunological features of two previously vaccinated and mAb-treated survivors of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo who developed second episodes of disease months after initial discharge, ultimately complicated by fatal meningoencephalitis associated with viral persistence. METHODS: In this case report study, we describe the presentation, management, and subsequent investigations of two patients who developed recrudescent Ebola virus disease and subsequent fatal meningoencephalitis. We obtained data from epidemiological databases, Ebola treatment units, survivor programme databases, laboratory datasets, and hospital records. Following national protocols established during the 2018-20 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, blood, plasma, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples were collected during the first and second episodes of Ebola virus disease from both individuals and were analysed by molecular (quantitative RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing) and serological (IgG and IgM ELISA and Luminex assays) techniques. FINDINGS: The total time between the end of the first Ebola virus episode and the onset of the second episode was 342 days for patient 1 and 137 days for patient 2. In both patients, Ebola virus RNA was detected in blood and CSF samples during the second episode of disease. Complete genomes from CSF samples from this relapse episode showed phylogenetic relatedness to the genome sequenced from blood samples collected from the initial infection, confirming in-host persistence of Ebola virus. Serological analysis showed an antigen-specific humoral response with typical IgM and IgG kinetics in patient 1, but an absence of an endogenous adaptive immune response in patient 2. INTERPRETATION: We report the first two cases of fatal meningoencephalitis associated with Ebola virus persistence in two survivors of Ebola virus disease who had received vaccination and mAb-based treatment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our findings highlight the importance of long-term monitoring of survivors, including continued clinical, virological, and immunological profiling, as well as the urgent need for novel therapeutic strategies to prevent and mitigate the individual and public health consequences of Ebola virus persistence. FUNDING: Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Infectious Disease Rapid Response Reserve Fund, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US National Cancer Institute (National Institutes of Health), French National Research Institute for Development, and WHO.

Effectiveness of one dose of killed oral cholera vaccine in an endemic community in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: A global shortage of cholera vaccines has increased the use of single-dose regimens, rather than the standard two-dose regimen. There is sparse evidence on single-dose protection, particularly in children. In 2020, a mass vaccination campaign was conducted in Uvira, an endemic urban setting in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, resulting in largely single-dose coverage. We examined the effectiveness of a single-dose of the oral cholera vaccine Euvichol-Plus in this high-burden setting. METHODS: In this matched case-control study, we recruited individuals with medically attended confirmed cholera in the two cholera treatment facilities in the city of Uvira. The control group consisted of age-matched, sex-matched, and neighbourhood-matched community individuals. We recruited across two distinct periods: Oct 14, 2021, to March 10, 2022 (12-17 months after vaccination), and Nov 21, 2022, to Oct 18, 2023 (24-36 months after vaccination). Study staff administered structured questionnaires to all participants to capture demographics, household conditions, potential confounding variables, and vaccination status. The odds of vaccination for the case and control groups were contrasted in conditional logistic regression models to estimate unadjusted and adjusted vaccine effectiveness. FINDINGS: We enrolled 658 individuals with confirmed cholera and 2274 matched individuals for the control group. 99 (15·1%) individuals in the case group were younger than 5 years at the time of vaccination. The adjusted single-dose vaccine effectiveness was 52·7% (95% CI 31·4 to 67·4) 12-17 months after vaccination and 44·7% (24·8 to 59·4) 24-36 months after vaccination. Although protection in the first 12-17 months after vaccination was similar for children aged 1-4 years and older individuals, the estimate of protection in children aged 1-4 years appeared to wane during the third year after vaccination (adjusted vaccine effectiveness 32·9%, 95% CI -30·7 to 65·5), with CIs spanning the null. INTERPRETATION: A single dose of Euvichol-Plus provided substantial protection against medically attended cholera for at least 36 months after vaccination in this cholera-endemic setting. Although the evidence provides support for similar levels of protection in young children and others in the short term, protection among children younger than 5 years might wane significantly during the third year after vaccination. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

First imported Cases of MPXV Clade Ib in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo: Implications for Global Surveillance and Transmission Dynamics.

The ongoing national mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has resulted in more >30,000 suspected cases in the country from January 2023 to August 2024. While these historic case totals have been driven by primarily by zoonosis, the emergence of Clade Ib monkeypox virus (MPXV), which is connected to more sustained human-to-human transmission, has been associated with increasing public health impacts in eastern DRC. First identified in South Kivu province, Clade Ib MPXV has been identified in multiple non-endemic East African countries for the first time. In DRC, there have been concerns over broader Clade Ib expansion in the country that could further complicate containment and mitigation responses. Here, we report the first introductions of Clade Ib into North Kivu province, including within internal displacement camps, with suspected close contact transmission that includes non-intimate contacts and children. These findings demonstrate that mpox case investigations and community messaging campaigns should include considerations for non-sexual contact-mediated transmission of Clade Ib that includes children <15 years.

Sustained human outbreak of a new MPXV clade I lineage in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Outbreaks of monkeypox (mpox) have historically resulted from zoonotic spillover of clade I monkeypox virus (MPXV) in Central Africa and clade II MPXV in West Africa. In 2022, subclade IIb caused a global epidemic linked to transmission through sexual contact. Here we describe the epidemiological and genomic features of an mpox outbreak in a mining region in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, caused by clade I MPXV. Surveillance data collected between September 2023 and January 2024 identified 241 suspected cases. Genomic analysis demonstrates a distinct clade I lineage divergent from previously circulating strains in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Of the 108 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed mpox cases, the median age of individuals was 22 years, 51.9% were female and 29% were sex workers, suggesting a potential role for sexual transmission. The predominance of APOBEC3-type mutations and the estimated emergence time around mid-September 2023 imply recent sustained human-to-human transmission.

2020 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo: a retrospective genomic characterisation.

BACKGROUND: The Democratic Republic of the Congo has had 15 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks, from 1976 to 2023. On June 1, 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of EVD in the western Équateur Province (11th outbreak), proximal to the 2018 Tumba and Bikoro outbreak and concurrent with an outbreak in the eastern Nord Kivu Province. In this Article, we assessed whether the 11th outbreak was genetically related to previous or concurrent EVD outbreaks and connected available epidemiological and genetic data to identify sources of possible zoonotic spillover, uncover additional unreported cases of nosocomial transmission, and provide a deeper investigation into the 11th outbreak. METHODS: We analysed epidemiological factors from the 11th EVD outbreak to identify patient characteristics, epidemiological links, and transmission modes to explore virus spread through space, time, and age groups in the Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Trained field investigators and health professionals recorded data on suspected, probable, and confirmed cases, including demographic characteristics, possible exposures, symptom onset and signs and symptoms, and potentially exposed contacts. We used blood samples from individuals who were live suspected cases and oral swabs from individuals who were deceased to diagnose EVD. We applied whole-genome sequencing of 87 available Ebola virus genomes (from 130 individuals with EVD between May 19 and Sept 16, 2020), phylogenetic divergence versus time, and Bayesian reconstruction of phylogenetic trees to calculate viral substitution rates and study viral evolution. We linked the available epidemiological and genetic datasets to conduct a genomic and epidemiological study of the 11th EVD outbreak. FINDINGS: Between May 19 and Sept 16, 2020, 130 EVD (119 confirmed and 11 probable) cases were reported across 13 Équateur Province health zones. The individual identified as the index case reported frequent consumption of bat meat, suggesting the outbreak started due to zoonotic spillover. Sequencing revealed two circulating Ebola virus variants associated with this outbreak-a Mbandaka variant associated with the majority (97%) of cases and a Tumba-like variant with similarity to the ninth EVD outbreak in 2018. The Tumba-like variant exhibited a reduced substitution rate, suggesting transmission from a previous survivor of EVD. INTERPRETATION: Integrating genetic and epidemiological data allowed for investigative fact-checking and verified patient-reported sources of possible zoonotic spillover. These results demonstrate that rapid genetic sequencing combined with epidemiological data can inform responders of the mechanisms of viral spread, uncover novel transmission modes, and provide a deeper understanding of the outbreak, which is ultimately needed for infection prevention and control during outbreaks. FUNDING: WHO and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of incorporating Ebola prediction score tools and rapid diagnostic tests into a screening algorithm: A decision analytic model.

BACKGROUND: No distinctive clinical signs of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have prompted the development of rapid screening tools or called for a new approach to screening suspected Ebola cases. New screening approaches require evidence of clinical benefit and economic efficiency. As of now, no evidence or defined algorithm exists. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate, from a healthcare perspective, the efficiency of incorporating Ebola prediction scores and rapid diagnostic tests into the EVD screening algorithm during an outbreak. METHODS: We collected data on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and prediction scores' accuracy measurements, e.g., sensitivity and specificity, and the cost of case management and RDT screening in EVD suspect cases. The overall cost of healthcare services (PPE, procedure time, and standard-of-care (SOC) costs) per suspected patient and diagnostic confirmation of EVD were calculated. We also collected the EVD prevalence among suspects from the literature. We created an analytical decision model to assess the efficiency of eight screening strategies: 1) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition for Ebola suspects, 2) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off, 3) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test, 4) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test, 5) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition, then QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 6) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 7) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, and 8) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to identify an algorithm that minimizes the cost per patient correctly classified. We performed a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: Our analysis found dual ECPS as a conditional test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm to be the most cost-effective screening algorithm for EVD, with an effectiveness of 0.86. The cost-effectiveness ratio was 106.7 USD per patient correctly classified. The following algorithms, the ECPS as a conditional test with an effectiveness of 0.80 and an efficiency of 111.5 USD per patient correctly classified and the ECPS as a joint test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm with an effectiveness of 0.81 and a cost-effectiveness ratio of 131.5 USD per patient correctly classified. These findings were sensitive to variations in the prevalence of EVD in suspected population and the sensitivity of the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study showed that prediction scores and RDT could improve Ebola screening. The use of the ECPS as a conditional test algorithm and the dual ECPS as a conditional test and then the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm are the best screening choices because they are more efficient and lower the number of confirmation tests and overall care costs during an EBOV epidemic.