Randomized Trial of Metformin, Ivermectin, and Fluvoxamine for Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Early treatment to prevent severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is an important component of the comprehensive response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. METHODS: In this phase 3, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we used a 2-by-3 factorial design to test the effectiveness of three repurposed drugs - metformin, ivermectin, and fluvoxamine - in preventing serious SARS-CoV-2 infection in nonhospitalized adults who had been enrolled within 3 days after a confirmed diagnosis of infection and less than 7 days after the onset of symptoms. The patients were between the ages of 30 and 85 years, and all had either overweight or obesity. The primary composite end point was hypoxemia (≤93% oxygen saturation on home oximetry), emergency department visit, hospitalization, or death. All analyses used controls who had undergone concurrent randomization and were adjusted for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and receipt of other trial medications. RESULTS: A total of 1431 patients underwent randomization; of these patients, 1323 were included in the primary analysis. The median age of the patients was 46 years; 56% were female (6% of whom were pregnant), and 52% had been vaccinated. The adjusted odds ratio for a primary event was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 1.09; P = 0.19) with metformin, 1.05 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.45; P = 0.78) with ivermectin, and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.36; P = 0.75) with fluvoxamine. In prespecified secondary analyses, the adjusted odds ratio for emergency department visit, hospitalization, or death was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.94) with metformin, 1.39 (95% CI, 0.72 to 2.69) with ivermectin, and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.57 to 2.40) with fluvoxamine. The adjusted odds ratio for hospitalization or death was 0.47 (95% CI, 0.20 to 1.11) with metformin, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.19 to 2.77) with ivermectin, and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.33 to 3.76) with fluvoxamine. CONCLUSIONS: None of the three medications that were evaluated prevented the occurrence of hypoxemia, an emergency department visit, hospitalization, or death associated with Covid-19. (Funded by the Parsemus Foundation and others; COVID-OUT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04510194.).

Effect of Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody Treatment on Early Trajectories of Virologic and Immunologic Biomarkers in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (nmAbs) failed to show clear benefit for hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Dynamics of virologic and immunologic biomarkers remain poorly understood. METHODS: Participants enrolled in the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 trials were randomized to nmAb versus placebo. Longitudinal differences between treatment and placebo groups in levels of plasma nucleocapsid antigen (N-Ag), anti-nucleocapsid antibody, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and D-dimer at enrollment, day 1, 3, and 5 were estimated using linear mixed models. A 7-point pulmonary ordinal scale assessed at day 5 was compared using proportional odds models. RESULTS: Analysis included 2149 participants enrolled between August 2020 and September 2021. Treatment resulted in 20% lower levels of plasma N-Ag compared with placebo (95% confidence interval, 12%-27%; P < .001), and a steeper rate of decline through the first 5 days (P < .001). The treatment difference did not vary between subgroups, and no difference was observed in trajectories of other biomarkers or the day 5 pulmonary ordinal scale. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that nmAb has an antiviral effect assessed by plasma N-Ag among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, with no blunting of the endogenous anti-nucleocapsid antibody response. No effect on systemic inflammation or day 5 clinical status was observed. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04501978.

Favorable Antiviral Effect of Metformin on SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in a Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Metformin has antiviral activity against RNA viruses including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The mechanism appears to be suppression of protein translation via targeting the host mechanistic target of rapamycin pathway. In the COVID-OUT randomized trial for outpatient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), metformin reduced the odds of hospitalizations/death through 28 days by 58%, of emergency department visits/hospitalizations/death through 14 days by 42%, and of long COVID through 10 months by 42%. METHODS: COVID-OUT was a 2 × 3 randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial that assessed metformin, fluvoxamine, and ivermectin; 999 participants self-collected anterior nasal swabs on day 1 (n = 945), day 5 (n = 871), and day 10 (n = 775). Viral load was quantified using reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The mean SARS-CoV-2 viral load was reduced 3.6-fold with metformin relative to placebo (-0.56 log10 copies/mL; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.05 to -.06; P = .027). Those who received metformin were less likely to have a detectable viral load than placebo at day 5 or day 10 (odds ratio [OR], 0.72; 95% CI, .55 to .94). Viral rebound, defined as a higher viral load at day 10 than day 5, was less frequent with metformin (3.28%) than placebo (5.95%; OR, 0.68; 95% CI, .36 to 1.29). The metformin effect was consistent across subgroups and increased over time. Neither ivermectin nor fluvoxamine showed effect over placebo. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized, placebo-controlled trial of outpatient treatment of SARS-CoV-2, metformin significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral load, which may explain the clinical benefits in this trial. Metformin is pleiotropic with other actions that are relevant to COVID-19 pathophysiology. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04510194.

A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, has been associated with a decrease in viral load and the frequency of hospitalizations or emergency department visits among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Data are needed on the effect of this antibody in patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19. METHODS: In this platform trial of therapeutic agents, we randomly assigned hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure in a 1:1 ratio to receive either LY-CoV555 or matching placebo. In addition, all the patients received high-quality supportive care as background therapy, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and, when indicated, supplemental oxygen and glucocorticoids. LY-CoV555 (at a dose of 7000 mg) or placebo was administered as a single intravenous infusion over a 1-hour period. The primary outcome was a sustained recovery during a 90-day period, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. An interim futility assessment was performed on the basis of a seven-category ordinal scale for pulmonary function on day 5. RESULTS: On October 26, 2020, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment for futility after 314 patients (163 in the LY-CoV555 group and 151 in the placebo group) had undergone randomization and infusion. The median interval since the onset of symptoms was 7 days (interquartile range, 5 to 9). At day 5, a total of 81 patients (50%) in the LY-CoV555 group and 81 (54%) in the placebo group were in one of the two most favorable categories of the pulmonary outcome. Across the seven categories, the odds ratio of being in a more favorable category in the LY-CoV555 group than in the placebo group was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.29; P = 0.45). The percentage of patients with the primary safety outcome (a composite of death, serious adverse events, or clinical grade 3 or 4 adverse events through day 5) was similar in the LY-CoV555 group and the placebo group (19% and 14%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.78 to 3.10; P = 0.20). The rate ratio for a sustained recovery was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555, when coadministered with remdesivir, did not demonstrate efficacy among hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure. (Funded by Operation Warp Speed and others; TICO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501978.).

Phase I/II Design for Selecting Subgroup-Specific Optimal Biological Doses for Prespecified Subgroups.

We propose a phase I/II trial design to support dose-finding when the optimal biological dose (OBD) may differ in two prespecified patient subgroups. The proposed design uses a utility function to quantify efficacy-toxicity trade-offs, and a Bayesian model with spike and slab prior distributions for the subgroup effect on toxicity and efficacy to guide dosing and to facilitate identifying either subgroup-specific OBDs or a common OBD depending on the resulting trial data. In a simulation study, we find the proposed design performs nearly as well as a design that ignores subgroups when the dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships are the same in both subgroups, and nearly as well as a design with independent dose-finding within each subgroup when these relationships differ across subgroups. In other words, the proposed adaptive design performs similarly to the design that would be chosen if investigators possessed foreknowledge about whether the dose-toxicity and/or dose-efficacy relationship differs across two prespecified subgroups. Thus, the proposed design may be effective for OBD selection when uncertainty exists about whether the OBD differs in two prespecified subgroups.

Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccination and Booster on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Symptom Severity Over Time in the COVID-OUT Trial.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination has decreasing protection from acquiring any infection with emergence of new variants; however, vaccination continues to protect against progression to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The impact of vaccination status on symptoms over time is less clear. METHODS: Within a randomized trial on early outpatient COVID-19 therapy testing metformin, ivermectin, and/or fluvoxamine, participants recorded symptoms daily for 14 days. Participants were given a paper symptom diary allowing them to circle the severity of 14 symptoms as none (0), mild (1), moderate (2), or severe (3). This is a secondary analysis of clinical trial data on symptom severity over time using generalized estimating equations comparing those unvaccinated, SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated with primary vaccine series only, or vaccine-boosted. RESULTS: The parent clinical trial prospectively enrolled 1323 participants, of whom 1062 (80%) prospectively recorded some daily symptom data. Of these, 480 (45%) were unvaccinated, 530 (50%) were vaccinated with primary series only, and 52 (5%) vaccine-boosted. Overall symptom severity was least for the vaccine-boosted group and most severe for unvaccinated at baseline and over the 14 days (P < .001). Individual symptoms were least severe in the vaccine-boosted group including cough, chills, fever, nausea, fatigue, myalgia, headache, and diarrhea, as well as smell and taste abnormalities. Results were consistent over Delta and Omicron variant time periods. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-boosted participants had the least severe symptoms during COVID-19, which abated the quickest over time. Clinical Trial Registration. NCT04510194.

An alternative metric for evaluating the potential patient benefit of response-adaptive randomization procedures.

When planning a two-arm group sequential clinical trial with a binary primary outcome that has severe implications for quality of life (e.g., mortality), investigators may strive to find the design that maximizes in-trial patient benefit. In such cases, Bayesian response-adaptive randomization (BRAR) is often considered because it can alter the allocation ratio throughout the trial in favor of the treatment that is currently performing better. Although previous studies have recommended using fixed randomization over BRAR based on patient benefit metrics calculated from the realized trial sample size, these previous comparisons have been limited by failures to hold type I and II error rates constant across designs or consider the impacts on all individuals directly affected by the design choice. In this paper, we propose a metric for comparing designs with the same type I and II error rates that reflects expected outcomes among individuals who would participate in the trial if enrollment is open when they become eligible. We demonstrate how to use the proposed metric to guide the choice of design in the context of two recent trials in persons suffering out of hospital cardiac arrest. Using computer simulation, we demonstrate that various implementations of group sequential BRAR offer modest improvements with respect to the proposed metric relative to conventional group sequential monitoring alone.

Bayesian hierarchical models incorporating study-level covariates for multivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic tests without a gold standard with application to COVID-19.

When evaluating a diagnostic test, it is common that a gold standard may not be available. One example is the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection using saliva sampling or nasopharyngeal swabs. Without a gold standard, a pragmatic approach is to postulate a "reference standard," defined as positive if either test is positive, or negative if both are negative. However, this pragmatic approach may overestimate sensitivities because subjects infected with SARS-CoV-2 may still have double-negative test results even when both tests exhibit perfect specificity. To address this limitation, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for simultaneously estimating sensitivity, specificity, and disease prevalence in the absence of a gold standard. The proposed model allows adjusting for study-level covariates. We evaluate the model performance using an example based on a recently published meta-analysis on the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and extensive simulations. Compared with the pragmatic reference standard approach, we demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian method provides a more accurate evaluation of prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity in a meta-analytic framework.

Randomized controlled dose-escalation design to evaluate the safety of a novel pharmacological cardiopulmonary resuscitation strategy.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The motivating randomized controlled phase I trial evaluates three sodium nitroprusside doses in a novel sodium nitroprusside-enhanced cardiopulmonary resuscitation strategy for improved end-organ perfusion relative to local standard of care. Sodium nitroprusside is a vasodilator with an established safety profile in other indications, whereas the local standard of care uses vasoconstrictors, typically epinephrine. The purpose of the proposed trial is to identify the highest safe dose of sodium nitroprusside in this new context as excessive doses may cause severe hypotension with compromised end-organ perfusion. METHODS: The proposed phase I trial design expands upon traditional dose-finding designs to include a randomized control arm, which is needed to assess safety through the relative increase in serum lactate on hospital admission. For guiding dose escalation, we propose and compare six Bayesian models which characterize expected serum lactate as a function of sodium nitroprusside dose and randomization group. Each model makes a different assumption about the expected change in serum lactate across control cohorts concurrently randomized with each dose. Model selection aims to minimize the expected number of times that a dose is incorrectly classified as safe or unsafe while sample size selection targets an expected number of incorrectly classified doses. Randomization is 1:1 for the initial cohort, and for subsequent cohorts is chosen to maximize the lower confidence bound. RESULTS: The spike-and-slab model minimizes the expected number of times that a dose is incorrectly classified as safe or unsafe under the most scenarios in the motivating three-dose trial, but all six models exhibit relatively similar performance. A 2:1 randomization ratio for the second and third cohorts maximizes the lower confidence bound when using the spike-and-slab model. With the optimal design, on average, 70 individuals will ensure 1 incorrectly classified dose in 6 opportunities. CONCLUSION: We recommend that the motivating trial use the spike-and-slab model with a 1:1 randomization ratio for the initial cohort and 2:1 randomization ratio for subsequent cohorts; however, the simpler fixed effects approaches performed similarly well.

Responses to a Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 According to Baseline Antibody and Antigen Levels : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: In a randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial, bamlanivimab, a SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing monoclonal antibody, given in combination with remdesivir, did not improve outcomes among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 based on an early futility assessment. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the a priori hypothesis that bamlanivimab has greater benefit in patients without detectable levels of endogenous neutralizing antibody (nAb) at study entry than in those with antibodies, especially if viral levels are high. DESIGN: Randomized, placebo-controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04501978). SETTING: Multicenter trial. PATIENTS: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 without end-organ failure. INTERVENTION: Bamlanivimab (7000 mg) or placebo. MEASUREMENTS: Antibody, antigen, and viral RNA levels were centrally measured on stored specimens collected at baseline. Patients were followed for 90 days for sustained recovery (defined as discharge to home and remaining home for 14 consecutive days) and a composite safety outcome (death, serious adverse events, organ failure, or serious infections). RESULTS: Among 314 participants (163 receiving bamlanivimab and 151 placebo), the median time to sustained recovery was 19 days and did not differ between the bamlanivimab and placebo groups (subhazard ratio [sHR], 0.99 [95% CI, 0.79 to 1.22]; sHR > 1 favors bamlanivimab). At entry, 50% evidenced production of anti-spike nAbs; 50% had SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid plasma antigen levels of at least 1000 ng/L. Among those without and with nAbs at study entry, the sHRs were 1.24 (CI, 0.90 to 1.70) and 0.74 (CI, 0.54 to 1.00), respectively (nominal P for interaction = 0.018). The sHR (bamlanivimab vs. placebo) was also more than 1 for those with plasma antigen or nasal viral RNA levels above median level at entry and was greatest for those without antibodies and with elevated levels of antigen (sHR, 1.48 [CI, 0.99 to 2.23]) or viral RNA (sHR, 1.89 [CI, 1.23 to 2.91]). Hazard ratios for the composite safety outcome (<1 favors bamlanivimab) also differed by serostatus at entry: 0.67 (CI, 0.37 to 1.20) for those without and 1.79 (CI, 0.92 to 3.48) for those with nAbs. LIMITATION: Subgroup analysis of a trial prematurely stopped because of futility; small sample size; multiple subgroups analyzed. CONCLUSION: Efficacy and safety of bamlanivimab may differ depending on whether an endogenous nAb response has been mounted. The limited sample size of the study does not allow firm conclusions based on these findings, and further independent trials are required that assess other types of passive immune therapies in the same patient setting. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. government Operation Warp Speed and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Design and implementation of an international, multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol for trials of novel SARS-CoV-2 antiviral agents: Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3).

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Safe and effective therapies for COVID-19 are urgently needed. In order to meet this need, the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines public-private partnership initiated the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 is a multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol, which facilitates the rapid evaluation of the safety and efficacy of novel candidate antiviral therapeutic agents for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Five agents have so far entered the protocol, with rapid answers already provided for three of these. Other agents are expected to enter the protocol throughout 2021. This protocol contains a number of key design and implementation features that, along with challenges faced by the protocol team, are presented and discussed. METHODS: Three clinical trial networks, encompassing a global network of clinical sites, participated in the protocol development and implementation. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 utilizes a multi-arm, multi-stage design with an agile and robust approach to futility and safety evaluation at 300 patients enrolled, with subsequent expansion to full sample size and an expanded target population if the agent shows an acceptable safety profile and evidence of efficacy. Rapid recruitment to multiple agents is enabled through the sharing of placebo, the confining of agent-specific information to protocol appendices, and modular consent forms. In collaboration with the Food and Drug Administration, a thorough safety data collection and Data and Safety Monitoring Board schedule was developed for the study of potential therapeutic agents with limited in-human data in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: As of 8 August 2021, five agents have entered the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 master protocol and a total of 1909 participants have been randomized to one of these agents or matching placebo. There were a number of challenges faced by the study team that needed to be overcome in order to successfully implement Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 across a global network of sites. These included ensuring drug supply and reliable recruitment allowing for changing infection rates across the global network of sites, the need to balance the collection of data and samples without overburdening clinical staff and obtaining regulatory approvals across a global network of sites. CONCLUSION: Through a robust multi-network partnership, the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 protocol has been successfully used across a global network of sites for rapid generation of efficacy data on multiple novel antiviral agents. The protocol design and implementation features used in this protocol, and the approaches to address challenges, will have broader applicability. Mechanisms to facilitate improved communication and harmonization among country-specific regulatory bodies are required to achieve the full potential of this approach in dealing with a global outbreak.

Advanced reperfusion strategies for patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and refractory ventricular fibrillation (ARREST): a phase 2, single centre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and ventricular fibrillation, more than half present with refractory ventricular fibrillation unresponsive to initial standard advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) treatment. We did the first randomised clinical trial in the USA of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)-facilitated resuscitation versus standard ACLS treatment in patients with OHCA and refractory ventricular fibrillation. METHODS: For this phase 2, single centre, open-label, adaptive, safety and efficacy randomised clinical trial, we included adults aged 18-75 years presenting to the University of Minnesota Medical Center (MN, USA) with OHCA and refractory ventricular fibrillation, no return of spontaneous circulation after three shocks, automated cardiopulmonary resuscitation with a Lund University Cardiac Arrest System, and estimated transfer time shorter than 30 min. Patients were randomly assigned to early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation or standard ACLS treatment on hospital arrival by use of a secure schedule generated with permuted blocks of randomly varying block sizes. Allocation concealment was achieved by use of a randomisation schedule that required scratching off an opaque layer to reveal assignment. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes were safety, survival, and functional assessment at hospital discharge and at 3 months and 6 months after discharge. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. The study qualified for exception from informed consent (21 Code of Federal Regulations 50.24). The ARREST trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03880565. FINDINGS: Between Aug 8, 2019, and June 14, 2020, 36 patients were assessed for inclusion. After exclusion of six patients, 30 were randomly assigned to standard ACLS treatment (n=15) or to early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation (n=15). One patient in the ECMO-facilitated resuscitation group withdrew from the study before discharge. The mean age was 59 years (range 36-73), and 25 (83%) of 30 patients were men. Survival to hospital discharge was observed in one (7%) of 15 patients (95% credible interval 1·6-30·2) in the standard ACLS treatment group versus six (43%) of 14 patients (21·3-67·7) in the early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation group (risk difference 36·2%, 3·7-59·2; posterior probability of ECMO superiority 0·9861). The study was terminated at the first preplanned interim analysis by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute after unanimous recommendation from the Data Safety Monitoring Board after enrolling 30 patients because the posterior probability of ECMO superiority exceeded the prespecified monitoring boundary. Cumulative 6-month survival was significantly better in the early ECMO group than in the standard ACLS group. No unanticipated serious adverse events were observed. INTERPRETATION: Early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation for patients with OHCA and refractory ventricular fibrillation significantly improved survival to hospital discharge compared with standard ACLS treatment. FUNDING: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Batch Bayesian optimization design for optimizing a neurostimulator.

Recently, spinal epidural neurostimulation is being considered for rehabilitation of persons suffering from partial spinal-cord injury. The neurostimulator must be programmed by a neurosurgeon, yet little work has been done to develop rigorous methods for optimally programming the device. We propose an adaptive design to efficiently optimize programming of the neurostimulator based on specified interim evaluations of patient reported preferences. Preferences for the eligible device configurations are estimated after each interim analysis through a conditionally autoregressive model that assumes preference for one configuration is related to preferences for neighboring configurations. Using the adaptively updated preferences, a group of configurations is programmed into the device for the patient to evaluate during the next follow-up period. This selection is based on a balance of device exploration and preference maximization. We repeat this process until a specified stopping rule or the calibration end is reached. We show simulation studies to evaluate the overall quality of the adaptive calibration for various configuration selection strategies and the effects of stopping it early.

Logistic retainment interval dose exploration design for Phase I clinical trials of cytotoxic agents.

Phase I studies of a cytotoxic agent often aim to identify the dose that provides an investigator specified target dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) probability. In practice, an initial cohort receives a dose with a putative low DLT probability, and subsequent dosing follows by consecutively deciding whether to retain the current dose, escalate to the adjacent higher dose, or de-escalate to the adjacent lower dose. This article proposes a Phase I design derived using a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to this sequential decision-making process. The design consecutively chooses the action that minimizes posterior expected loss where the loss reflects the distance on the log-odds scale between the target and the DLT probability of the dose that would be given to the next cohort under the corresponding action. A logistic model is assumed for the log odds of a DLT at the current dose with a weakly informative t-distribution prior centered at the target. The key design parameters are the pre-specified odds ratios for the DLT probabilities at the adjacent higher and lower doses. Dosing rules may be pre-tabulated, as these only depend on the outcomes at the current dose, which greatly facilitates implementation. The recommended default version of the proposed design improves dose selection relative to many established designs across a variety of scenarios.

Rationale and methods of the Advanced R2Eperfusion STrategies for Refractory Cardiac Arrest (ARREST) trial.

BACKGROUND: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation has emerged as a prominent therapy for patients with refractory cardiac arrest. However, the optimal time of initiation remains unknown. AIM: The aim was to assess the rate of survival to hospital discharge in adult patients with refractory ventricular fibrillation/pulseless ventricular tachycardia out-of-hospital cardiac arrest treated with 1 of 2 local standards of care: (1) early venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation-facilitated resuscitation for circulatory support and percutaneous coronary intervention, when needed, or (2) standard advanced cardiac life support resuscitation. DESIGN: Phase II, single-center, partially blinded, prospective, intention-to-treat, safety and efficacy clinical trial. POPULATION: Adults (aged 18-75), initial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest rhythm of ventricular fibrillation/pulseless ventricular tachycardia, no ROSC following 3 shocks, body morphology to accommodate a Lund University Cardiac Arrest System automated cardiopulmonary resuscitation device, and transfer time of <30 minutes. SETTING: Hospital-based. OUTCOMES: Primary: survival to hospital discharge. Secondary: safety, survival, and functional assessment at hospital discharge and 3 and 6 months, and cost. SAMPLE SIZE: Assuming success rates of 12% versus 37% in the 2 arms and 90% power, a type 1 error rate of .05, and a 15% rate of withdrawal prior to hospital discharge, the required sample size is N = 174 evaluated patients. CONCLUSIONS: The ARREST trial will generate safety/effectiveness data and comparative costs associated with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, informing broader implementation and a definitive Phase III clinical trial.

A utility-based design for randomized comparative trials with ordinal outcomes and prognostic subgroups.

A design is proposed for randomized comparative trials with ordinal outcomes and prognostic subgroups. The design accounts for patient heterogeneity by allowing possibly different comparative conclusions within subgroups. The comparative testing criterion is based on utilities for the levels of the ordinal outcome and a Bayesian probability model. Designs based on two alternative models that include treatment-subgroup interactions are considered, the proportional odds model and a non-proportional odds model with a hierarchical prior that shrinks toward the proportional odds model. A third design that assumes homogeneity and ignores possible treatment-subgroup interactions also is considered. The three approaches are applied to construct group sequential designs for a trial of nutritional prehabilitation versus standard of care for esophageal cancer patients undergoing chemoradiation and surgery, including both untreated patients and salvage patients whose disease has recurred following previous therapy. A simulation study is presented that compares the three designs, including evaluation of within-subgroup type I and II error probabilities under a variety of scenarios including different combinations of treatment-subgroup interactions.

Comparative review of novel model-assisted designs for phase I clinical trials.

A number of novel phase I trial designs have been proposed that aim to combine the simplicity of algorithm-based designs with the superior performance of model-based designs, including the modified toxicity probability interval, Bayesian optimal interval, and Keyboard designs. In this article, we review these "model-assisted" designs, contrast their statistical foundations and pros and cons, and compare their operating characteristics with the continual reassessment method. To provide unbiased and reliable results, our comparison is based on 10 000 dose-toxicity scenarios randomly generated using the pseudo-uniform algorithm recently proposed in the literature. The results showed that the continual reassessment method, Bayesian optimal interval, and Keyboard designs provide comparable, superior operating characteristics, and each outperforms the modified toxicity probability interval design. These designs are more likely to correctly select the maximum tolerated dose and less likely to overdose patients.

Utility-based designs for randomized comparative trials with categorical outcomes.

A general utility-based testing methodology for design and conduct of randomized comparative clinical trials with categorical outcomes is presented. Numerical utilities of all elementary events are elicited to quantify their desirabilities. These numerical values are used to map the categorical outcome probability vector of each treatment to a mean utility, which is used as a one-dimensional criterion for constructing comparative tests. Bayesian tests are presented, including fixed sample and group sequential procedures, assuming Dirichlet-multinomial models for the priors and likelihoods. Guidelines are provided for establishing priors, eliciting utilities, and specifying hypotheses. Efficient posterior computation is discussed, and algorithms are provided for jointly calibrating test cutoffs and sample size to control overall type I error and achieve specified power. Asymptotic approximations for the power curve are used to initialize the algorithms. The methodology is applied to re-design a completed trial that compared two chemotherapy regimens for chronic lymphocytic leukemia, in which an ordinal efficacy outcome was dichotomized, and toxicity was ignored to construct the trial's design. The Bayesian tests also are illustrated by several types of categorical outcomes arising in common clinical settings. Freely available computer software for implementation is provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Semiparametric Bayesian commensurate survival model for post-market medical device surveillance with non-exchangeable historical data.

Trial investigators often have a primary interest in the estimation of the survival curve in a population for which there exists acceptable historical information from which to borrow strength. However, borrowing strength from a historical trial that is non-exchangeable with the current trial can result in biased conclusions. In this article we propose a fully Bayesian semiparametric method for the purpose of attenuating bias and increasing efficiency when jointly modeling time-to-event data from two possibly non-exchangeable sources of information. We illustrate the mechanics of our methods by applying them to a pair of post-market surveillance datasets regarding adverse events in persons on dialysis that had either a bare metal or drug-eluting stent implanted during a cardiac revascularization surgery. We finish with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of this approach to evidence synthesis, as well as directions for future work in this area. The article's Supplementary Materials offer simulations to show our procedure's bias, mean squared error, and coverage probability properties in a variety of settings.

Optimal timing for an accelerated interim futility analysis incorporating real world data.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials include interim monitoring guidelines to stop early for safety, efficacy, or futility. Futility monitoring facilitates re-allocation of limited resources. However, conventional methods for interim futility monitoring require a trial to accrue nearly half of the outcome data to make a reliable early stopping decision, limiting its benefit. As early stopping for futility will not inflate type-I error, these analyses are an appealing venue for incorporating external data to improve efficiency. METHODS: We propose a Bayesian approach to futility monitoring leveraging real world data using Semi-Supervised MIXture Multi-source Exchangeability Models, which accounts for both measured and unmeasured differences between data sources. We implement futility monitoring using predictive probabilities and investigate the optimal timing with respect to the expected sample size under the null hypothesis. Because we only incorporate external data during the interim futility analysis the proposed design is not limited by type-I error inflation. RESULTS: When the external and trial data are exchangeable, the proposed method provides a roughly 70 person reduction in expected sample size under the null. Under scenarios where exchangeability does not hold, our approach still provides a 10-20 person reduction in expected sample size under the null with about 80% power. CONCLUSIONS: External data borrowing in interim futility monitoring is a promising venue to improve trial efficiency without type-I error inflation. Approaches that are acceptable to regulatory authorities and leverage the complementary strengths of real world and trial data are vital to more efficiently allocate limited resources amongst clinical trials.