A mathematical model for mapping the insecticide resistance trend in the Anopheles gambiae mosquito population under climate variability in Africa.

The control of arthropod disease vectors using chemical insecticides is vital in combating malaria, however the increasing insecticide resistance (IR) poses a challenge. Furthermore, climate variability affects mosquito population dynamics and subsequently IR propagation. We present a mathematical model to decipher the relationship between IR in Anopheles gambiae populations and climate variability. By adapting the susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR) framework and integrating temperature and rainfall data, our model examines the connection between mosquito dynamics, IR, and climate. Model validation using field data achieved 92% accuracy, and the sensitivity of model parameters on the transmission potential of IR was elucidated (e.g. µPRCC = 0.85958, p-value < 0.001). In this study, the integration of high-resolution covariates with the SIR model had a significant impact on the spatial and temporal variation of IR among mosquito populations across Africa. Importantly, we demonstrated a clear association between climatic variability and increased IR (width = [0-3.78], α = 0.05). Regions with high IR variability, such as western Africa, also had high malaria incidences thereby corroborating the World Health Organization Malaria Report 2021. More importantly, this study seeks to bolster global malaria combat strategies by highlighting potential IR 'hotspots' for targeted intervention by National malria control programmes.

Studies of Transgenic Mosquitoes in Disease-Endemic Countries: Preparation of Containment Facilities.

Novel approaches to area-wide control of vector species offer promise as additional tools in the fight against vectored diseases. Evaluation of transgenic insect strains aimed at field population control in disease-endemic countries may involve international partnerships and should be done in a stepwise approach, starting with studies in containment facilities. The preparations of both new-build and renovated facilities are described, including working with local and national regulations regarding land use, construction, and biosafety requirements, as well as international guidance to fill any gaps in regulation. The examples given are for containment categorization at Arthropod Containment Level 2 for initial facility design, classification of wastes, and precautions during shipping. Specific lessons were derived from preparations to evaluate transgenic (non-gene drive) mosquitoes in West and East African countries. Documented procedures and the use of a non-transgenic training strain for trial shipments and culturing were used to develop competence and confidence among the African facility staff, and along the chain of custody for transport. This practical description is offered to support other research consortia or institutions preparing containment facilities and operating procedures in conditions where research on transgenic insects is at an early stage.

Containment Studies of Transgenic Mosquitoes in Disease Endemic Countries: The Broad Concept of Facilities Readiness.

Genetic strategies for large scale pest or vector control using modified insects are not yet operational in Africa, and currently rely on import of the modified strains to begin preliminary, contained studies. Early involvement of research teams from participating countries is crucial to evaluate candidate field interventions. Following the recommended phased approach for novel strategies, evaluation should begin with studies in containment facilities. Experiences to prepare facilities and build international teams for research on transgenic mosquitoes revealed some important organizing themes underlying the concept of "facilities readiness," or the point at which studies in containment may proceed, in sub-Saharan African settings. First, "compliance" for research with novel or non-native living organisms was defined as the fulfillment of all legislative and regulatory requirements. This is not limited to regulations regarding use of transgenic organisms. Second, the concept of "colony utility" was related to the characteristics of laboratory colonies being produced so that results of studies may be validated across time, sites, and strains or technologies; so that the appropriate candidate strains are moved forward toward field studies. Third, the importance of achieving "defensible science" was recognized, including that study conclusions can be traced back to evidence, covering the concerns of various stakeholders over the long term. This, combined with good stewardship of resources and appropriate funding, covers a diverse set of criteria for declaring when "facilities readiness" has been attained. It is proposed that, despite the additional demands on time and resources, only with the balance of and rigorous achievement of each of these organizing themes can collaborative research into novel strategies in vector or pest control reliably progress past initial containment studies.