Reconstructing historical trends of Berre lagoon contamination from surface sediment datasets: influences of industrial regulations and anthropogenic silt inputs.

These last decades, the Berre lagoon (in southeastern France) has been deeply affected since the 1930s by strong inputs of contaminants associated with industrial development and since 1966 by huge inputs of freshwater and silts due to the installation of a hydroelectric power plant. Surveys of the surface sediment contamination have been sparsely performed since 1964 for management and research purposes. These surveys were performed by various laboratories that investigated different chemicals and sampling areas using different analysis protocols. Therefore, the available data are disconnected in time and space and differ in quality. In order to reconstruct coherent time series of sediment contamination from this heterogeneous datasets and to discuss the influences of industrial and hydroelectric discharges we used a statistical approach. This approach is based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Fuzzy clustering analysis on data from one extensive survey realized on surface sediments in 1976. The PCA allowed identifying two geochemical indexes describing the main surface sediment geochemical characteristics. The fuzzy clustering analysis on these indexes allowed identifying sub-areas under the specific influence of industrial or hydroelectric discharges. This allowed us to reconstruct, for each sub-area, a coherent and interpretable long-term time series of sediment contamination from the available database. Reconstructed temporal trends allowed us to estimate: (i) the overall decrease of sediment contamination since the mid-1970 attributed to industrial discharge regulations enacted at this period and (ii) the dilution of the concentrations of sediment bound contaminants induced by the hydroelectric power plant and its associated particulate matter inputs.

Highly contrasted responses of Mediterranean octocorals to climate change along a depth gradient.

Climate change has a strong impact on marine ecosystems, including temperate species. Analysing the diversity of thermotolerance levels within species along with their genetic structure enables a better understanding of their potential response to climate change. We performed this integrative study on the Mediterranean octocoral Eunicella cavolini, with samples from different depths and by means of a common garden experiment. This species does not host photosynthetic Symbiodinium, enabling us to focus on the cnidarian response. We compared the thermotolerance of individuals from 20 m and 40 m depths from the same site and with replicates from the same colony. On the basis of an innovative statistical analysis of necrosis kinetics and risk, we demonstrated the occurrence of a very different response between depths at this local scale, with lower thermotolerance of deep individuals. Strongly thermotolerant individuals were observed at 20 m with necrosis appearing at higher temperatures than observed in situ. On the basis of nine microsatellite loci, we showed that these marked thermotolerance differences occur within a single population. This suggests the importance of acclimatization processes in adaptation to these different depths. In addition, differences between replicates demonstrated the occurrence of a variability of response between fragments from the same colony with the possibility of an interaction with a tank effect. Our results provide a basis for studying adaptation and acclimatization in Mediterranean octocorals in a heterogeneous environment.

Towards a simplification of models using regression trees.

Over-parametrization in modelling is a well-known issue that makes it hard to identify which part of a model is responsible for a given behaviour. In line with that ascertainment, this work presents the outline of an empirical method to simplify models by decreasing the number of parameters. By using regression trees to classify outputs according to related input parameters, the method provides the modeller with an objective tool to reduce the range of the used parameters and, under certain conditions, to establish relations between them. Thereby, the complexity of the model is reduced on the basis of mathematical arguments. As an example, a dynamic energy budget-based model of a mesopelagic bacterial ecosystem is simplified using the presented method. The main benefits of such a method are thus highlighted: (i) more robust parameter estimations; (ii) less complex formulations; and (iii) fewer modelling assumptions. To conclude, the difficulties encountered are discussed, and several solutions are proposed to deal with them.

Global production increased by spatial heterogeneity in a population dynamics model.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity are often described as important factors having a strong impact on biodiversity. The effect of heterogeneity is in most cases analyzed by the response of biotic interactions such as competition of predation. It may also modify intrinsic population properties such as growth rate. Most of the studies are theoretic since it is often difficult to manipulate spatial heterogeneity in practice. Despite the large number of studies dealing with this topics, it is still difficult to understand how the heterogeneity affects populations dynamics. On the basis of a very simple model, this paper aims to explicitly provide a simple mechanism which can explain why spatial heterogeneity may be a favorable factor for production. We consider a two patch model and a logistic growth is assumed on each patch. A general condition on the migration rates and the local subpopulation growth rates is provided under which the total carrying capacity is higher than the sum of the local carrying capacities, which is not intuitive. As we illustrate, this result is robust under stochastic perturbations.

Forecasting physicochemical variables by a classification tree method. Application to the Berre Lagoon (south France).

The dynamics of the "Etang de Berre", a brackish lagoon situated close to the French Mediterranean sea coast, is strongly disturbed by freshwater inputs coming from an hydroelectric power station. The system dynamics has been described as a sequence of daily typical states from a set of physicochemical variables such as temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen rates collected over three years by an automatic sampling station. Each daily pattern summarizes the evolution, hour by hour of the physicochemical variables. This article presents results of forecasts of the states of the system subjected to the simultaneous effects of meteorological conditions and freshwater releases. We recall the main step of the classification tree method used to build up the predictive model (Classification and Regression Trees, Breiman et al., 1984) and we propose a transfer procedure in order to test the stability of the model. Results obtained on the Etang de Berre data set allow us to describe and predict the effects of the environmental variables on the system dynamics with a margin of error. The transfer procedure applied after the tree building process gives a maximum gain in prediction accuracy of about 15%.