Composition of Anopheles species and bionomic characteristics over the peak malaria transmission season in Bandarban, Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Joint efforts by government and non-government organizations have helped to reduce malaria in Bangladesh and set the country on a clear path to eventual malaria elimination. However, achieving that goal would be challenging without a comprehensive understanding of vector bionomics. METHODS: Targeted capturing of Anopheles mosquitoes over a rainy season, utilizing specific sampling methods, including human landing catches (HLCs), CDC-light traps (CDC-LTs), and pyrethrum spray catches (PSCs) were aimed to characterize entomological drivers of transmission in four sites of Bandarban, Bangladesh. RESULTS: Molecular characterization of a subset of 4637 mosquitoes has demonstrated the presence of at least 17 species whose capture rates were representative of the rainy season. Species compositions and bionomic traits did not vary between sites with Anopheles maculatus having the highest landing rate by HLCs and Anopheles vagus having the highest capture rate with CDC-LTs. Interestingly, Anopheles species compositions and capture rates varied significantly (p < 0.05) for An. vagus, between HLCs and its often-used proxy-CDC-LTs- suggesting impacts on downstream analysis. CDC-LTs capture rates demonstrated differing compositions with indoor and outdoor biting rates. For example, Anopheles nigerrimus and Anopheles nivipes were more endophagic by HLCs and more exophagic by CDC-LTs. The use of a cow-baited CDC-LT also demonstrated significantly different results when compared to a human-baited CDC-LT considering the high degree of anthropophily in these species. The exception to both zoophily and indoor resting was An. vagus, which demonstrated both anthropophily and high resting rates indoors-pointing to this species being a possible primary vector at this site. CONCLUSION: A diverse Anopheles fauna in Bandarban has been confirmed through molecular methods, highlighting the potential impact of sampling techniques. Given the complexity of the local ecosystem, a better understanding of mosquito behaviour and ecology is required to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in Bangladesh.

Genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum parasite by microsatellite markers after scale-up of insecticide-treated bed nets in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: An initial study of genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in Asembo, western Kenya showed that the parasite maintained overall genetic stability 5 years after insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) introduction in 1997. This study investigates further the genetic diversity of P. falciparum 10 years after initial ITN introduction in the same study area and compares this with two other neighbouring areas, where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem) and 2004 (Karemo). METHODS: From a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2007, 235 smear-positive blood samples collected from children ≤15-year-old in the original study area and two comparison areas were genotyped employing eight neutral microsatellites. Differences in multiple infections, allele frequency, parasite genetic diversity and parasite population structure between the three areas were assessed. Further, molecular data reported previously (1996 and 2001) were compared to the 2007 results in the original study area Asembo. RESULTS: Overall proportion of multiple infections (MA) declined with time in the original study area Asembo (from 95.9 %-2001 to 87.7 %-2007). In the neighbouring areas, MA was lower in the site where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem 83.7 %) compared to where they were introduced in 2004 (Karemo 96.7 %) in 2007. Overall mean allele count (MAC ~ 2.65) and overall unbiased heterozygosity (H e  ~ 0.77) remained unchanged in 1996, 2001 and 2007 in Asembo and was the same level across the two neighbouring areas in 2007. Overall parasite population differentiation remained low over time and in the three areas at FST < 0.04. Both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium showed limited to no significant association between alleles in Asembo (1996, 2001 and 2007) and between three areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the P. falciparum high genetic diversity and parasite population resilience on samples collected 10 years apart and in different areas in western Kenya. The results highlight the need for long-term molecular monitoring after implementation and use of combined and intensive prevention and intervention measures in the region.

Assessment of molecular markers for anti-malarial drug resistance after the introduction and scale-up of malaria control interventions in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Although it is well known that drug pressure selects for drug-resistant parasites, the role of transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on drug resistance remains unclear. In this study, the drug resistance profile of current and previous first-line anti-malarials in Kenya was assessed within the context of drug policy change and scale-up of ITNs. National first-line treatment changed from chloroquine (CQ) to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in 1998 and to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in 2004. ITN use was scaled-up in the Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of western Kenya in 1997, 1999 and 2006, respectively. METHODS: Smear-positive samples (N = 253) collected from a 2007 cross-sectional survey among children in Asembo, Gem and Karemo were genotyped for mutations in pfcrt and pfmdr1 (CQ), dhfr and dhps (SP), and at pfmdr-N86 and the gene copy number in pfmdr1 (lumefantrine). Results were compared among the three geographic areas in 2007 and to retrospective molecular data from children in Asembo in 2001. RESULTS: In 2007, 69 and 85% of samples harboured the pfmdr1-86Y mutation and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant, respectively, with no significant differences by study area. However, the prevalence of the pfcrt-76T mutation differed significantly among areas (p <0.02), between 76 and 94%, with the highest prevalence in Asembo. Several 2007 samples carried mutations at dhfr-164L, dhps-436A, or dhps-613T. From 2001 to 2007, there were significant increases in the pfcrt-76T mutation from 82 to 94% (p <0.03), dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant from 62 to 82% (p <0.03), and an increase in the septuple CQ and SP combined mutant haplotype, K 76 Y 86 I 51 R 59 N 108 G 437 E 540 , from 28 to 39%. The prevalence of the pfmdr1-86Y mutation remained unchanged. All samples were single copy for pfmdr1. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular markers associated with lumefantrine resistance were not detected in 2007. More recent samples will be needed to detect any selective effects by AL. The prevalence of CQ and SP resistance markers increased from 2001 to 2007 in the absence of changes in transmission intensity. In 2007, only the prevalence of pfcrt-76T mutation differed among study areas of varying transmission intensity. Resistant parasites were most likely selected by sustained drug pressure from the continued use of CQ, SP, and mechanistically similar drugs, such as amodiaquine and cotrimoxazole. There was no clear evidence that differences in transmission intensity, as a result of ITN scale-up, influenced the prevalence of drug resistance molecular markers.

Serological markers for monitoring historical changes in malaria transmission intensity in a highly endemic region of Western Kenya, 1994-2009.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring local malaria transmission intensity is essential for planning evidence-based control strategies and evaluating their impact over time. Anti-malarial antibodies provide information on cumulative exposure and have proven useful, in areas where transmission has dropped to low sustained levels, for retrospectively reconstructing the timing and magnitude of transmission reduction. It is unclear whether serological markers are also informative in high transmission settings, where interventions may reduce transmission, but to a level where considerable exposure continues. METHODS: This study was conducted through ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. Asembo, in Western Kenya, is an area where intense malaria transmission was drastically reduced during a 1997-1999 community-randomized, controlled insecticide-treated net (ITN) trial. Two approaches were taken to reconstruct malaria transmission history during the period from 1994 to 2009. First, point measurements were calculated for seroprevalence, mean antibody titre, and seroconversion rate (SCR) against three Plasmodium falciparum antigens (AMA-1, MSP-119, and CSP) at five time points for comparison against traditional malaria indices (parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate). Second, within individual post-ITN years, age-stratified seroprevalence data were analysed retrospectively for an abrupt drop in SCR by fitting alternative reversible catalytic conversion models that allowed for change in SCR. RESULTS: Generally, point measurements of seroprevalence, antibody titres and SCR produced consistent patterns indicating that a gradual but substantial drop in malaria transmission (46-70%) occurred from 1994 to 2007, followed by a marginal increase beginning in 2008 or 2009. In particular, proportionate changes in seroprevalence and SCR point estimates (relative to 1994 baseline values) for AMA-1 and CSP, but not MSP-119, correlated closely with trends in parasite prevalence throughout the entire 15-year study period. However, retrospective analyses using datasets from 2007, 2008 and 2009 failed to detect any abrupt drop in transmission coinciding with the timing of the 1997-1999 ITN trial. CONCLUSIONS: In this highly endemic area, serological markers were useful for generating accurate point estimates of malaria transmission intensity, but not for retrospective analysis of historical changes. Further investigation, including exploration of different malaria antigens and/or alternative models of population seroconversion, may yield serological tools that are more informative in high transmission settings.

Effect of malaria transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein (MSP-1) and circumsporozoite (CSP) in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Although several studies have investigated the impact of reduced malaria transmission due to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on the patterns of morbidity and mortality, there is limited information on their effect on parasite diversity. METHODS: Sequencing was used to investigate the effect of ITNs on polymorphisms in two genes encoding leading Plasmodium falciparum vaccine candidate antigens, the 19 kilodalton blood stage merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-1(19kDa)) and the Th2R and Th3R T-cell epitopes of the pre-erythrocytic stage circumsporozoite protein (CSP) in a large community-based ITN trial site in western Kenya. The number and frequency of haplotypes as well as nucleotide and haplotype diversity were compared among parasites obtained from children <5 years old prior to the introduction of ITNs (1996) and after 5 years of high coverage ITN use (2001). RESULTS: A total of 12 MSP-1(19kDa) haplotypes were detected in 1996 and 2001. The Q-KSNG-L and E-KSNG-L haplotypes corresponding to the FVO and FUP strains of P. falciparum were the most prevalent (range 32-37%), with an overall haplotype diversity of > 0.7. No MSP-1(19kDa) 3D7 sequence-types were detected in 1996 and the frequency was less than 4% in 2001. The CSP Th2R and Th3R domains were highly polymorphic with a total of 26 and 14 haplotypes, respectively detected in 1996 and 34 and 13 haplotypes in 2001, with an overall haplotype diversity of > 0.9 and 0.75 respectively. The frequency of the most predominant Th2R and Th3R haplotypes was 14 and 36%, respectively. The frequency of Th2R and Th3R haplotypes corresponding to the 3D7 parasite strain was less than 4% at both time points. There was no significant difference in nucleotide and haplotype diversity in parasite isolates collected at both time points. CONCLUSION: High diversity in these two genes has been maintained overtime despite marked reductions in malaria transmission due to ITNs use. The frequency of 3D7 sequence-types was very low in this area. These findings provide information that could be useful in the design of future malaria vaccines for deployment in endemic areas with high ITN coverage and in interpretation of efficacy data for malaria vaccines based on 3D7 parasite strains.

Fetal sex and risk of pregnancy-associated malaria in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic regions: a meta-analysis.

In areas of moderate to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission, malaria in pregnancy remains a significant cause of low birth weight, stillbirth, and severe anaemia. Previously, fetal sex has been identified to modify the risks of maternal asthma, pre-eclampsia, and gestational diabetes. One study demonstrated increased risk of placental malaria in women carrying a female fetus. We investigated the association between fetal sex and malaria in pregnancy in 11 pregnancy studies conducted in sub-Saharan African countries and Papua New Guinea through meta-analysis using log binomial regression fitted to a random-effects model. Malaria infection during pregnancy and delivery was assessed using light microscopy, polymerase chain reaction, and histology. Five studies were observational studies and six were randomised controlled trials. Studies varied in terms of gravidity, gestational age at antenatal enrolment and bed net use. Presence of a female fetus was associated with malaria infection at enrolment by light microscopy (risk ratio 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.04, 1.24]; P = 0.003; n = 11,729). Fetal sex did not associate with malaria infection when other time points or diagnostic methods were used. There is limited evidence that fetal sex influences the risk of malaria infection in pregnancy.

Temporal trends of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) drug-resistance molecular markers in Plasmodium falciparum parasites from pregnant women in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in Plasmodium falciparum parasites is associated with mutations in the dihydrofolate reductase (dhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (dhps) genes and has spread worldwide. SP remains the recommended drug for intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) and information on population prevalence of the SP resistance molecular markers in pregnant women is limited. METHODS: Temporal trends of SP resistance molecular markers were investigated in 489 parasite samples collected from pregnant women at delivery from three different observational studies between 1996 and 2009 in Kenya, where SP was adopted for both IPTp and case treatment policies in 1998. Using real-time polymerase chain reaction, pyrosequencing and direct sequencing, 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of SP resistance molecular markers were assayed. RESULTS: The prevalence of quintuple mutant (dhfr N51I/C59R/S108N and dhps A437G/K540E combined genotype) increased from 7% in the first study (1996-2000) to 88% in the third study (2008-2009). When further stratified by sample collection year and adoption of IPTp policy, the prevalence of the quintuple mutant increased from 2.4% in 1998 to 44.4% three years after IPTp policy adoption, seemingly in parallel with the increase in percentage of SP use in pregnancy. However, in the 1996-2000 study, more mutations in the combined dhfr/dhps genotype were associated with SP use during pregnancy only in univariable analysis and no associations were detected in the 2002-2008 and 2008-2009 studies. In addition, in the 2008-2009 study, 5.3% of the parasite samples carried the dhps triple mutant (A437G/K540E/A581G). There were no differences in the prevalence of SP mutant genotypes between the parasite samples from HIV + and HIV- women over time and between paired peripheral and placental samples. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant increase in dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant and the emergence of new genotype containing dhps 581 in the parasites from pregnant women in western Kenya over 13 years. IPTp adoption and SP use in pregnancy only played a minor role in the increased drug-resistant parasites in the pregnant women over time. Most likely, other major factors, such as the high prevalence of resistant parasites selected by the use of SP for case management in large non-pregnant population, might have contributed to the temporally increased prevalence of SP resistant parasites in pregnant women. Further investigations are needed to determine the linkage between SP drug resistance markers and efficacy of IPTp-SP.

Malaria risk: estimating clinical episodes of malaria.

Estimates of the disease burden caused by malaria are crucial for informing malaria control programmes. Snow and colleagues claim that their estimate of 515 million cases of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum globally is up to 50% higher than that reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), and 200% higher for areas outside Africa. However, this comparison refers to the WHO's estimates from 1990 and 1998, and not to the range of 300 million to 500 million that the WHO has used since 2000 (ref. 2). Both groups agree that the burden of malaria disease outside Africa, especially in South Asia, is greater than was estimated in the 1990s.

Association of Malnutrition with Subsequent Malaria Parasitemia among Children Younger than Three years in Kenya: A Secondary Data Analysis of the Asembo Bay Cohort Study.

Malaria and malnutrition remain primary causes of morbidity and mortality among children younger than 5 years in Africa. Studies investigating the association between malnutrition and subsequent malaria outcomes are inconsistent. We studied the effects of malnutrition on incidence and prevalence of malaria parasitemia in data from a cohort studied in the 1990s. Data came from the Asembo Bay cohort study, which collected malaria and health information on children from 1992 to 1996 in western Kenya. Infants were enrolled at birth and followed up until loss to follow-up, death, end of study, or 5 years old. Anthropometric measures and blood specimens were obtained monthly. Nutritional exposures included categorized Z-scores for height-for-age, weight-for-age, and weight-for-height. Febrile parasitemia and afebrile parasitemia were assessed with thick and thin blood films. Multiply imputed and weighted multinomial generalized estimating equation models estimated odds ratios (OR) for the association between exposures and outcomes. The sample included 1,182 children aged 0-30 months who contributed 18,028 follow-up visits. There was no significant association between malnutrition and either incident febrile parasitemia or prevalent febrile parasitemia. Prevalence ORs for afebrile parasitemia increased from 1.07 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.29) to 1.35 (1.03, 1.76) as stunting severity increased from mild to severe, and from 1.16 (1.02, 1.33) to 1.35 (1.09, 1.66) as underweight increased from mild to moderate. Stunting and underweight did not show a significant association with subsequent febrile parasitemia infections, but they did show a modest association with subsequent afebrile parasitemia. Consideration should be given to testing malnourished children for malaria, even if they present without fever.

Effects of transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on parasite genetics population structure: I. The genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum parasites by microsatellite markers in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) reduce malaria transmission and are an important prevention tool. However, there are still information gaps on how the reduction in malaria transmission by ITNs affects parasite genetics population structure. This study examined the relationship between transmission reduction from ITN use and the population genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in an area of high ITN coverage in western Kenya. METHODS: Parasite genetic diversity was assessed by scoring eight single copy neutral multilocus microsatellite (MS) markers in samples collected from P. falciparum-infected children (< five years) before introduction of ITNs (1996, baseline, n = 69) and five years after intervention (2001, follow-up, n = 74). RESULTS: There were no significant changes in overall high mixed infections and unbiased expected heterozygosity between baseline (%MA = 94% and He = 0.75) and follow up (%MA = 95% and He = 0.79) years. However, locus specific analysis detected significant differences for some individual loci between the two time points. Pfg377 loci, a gametocyte-specific MS marker showed significant increase in mixed infections and He in the follow up survey (%MA = 53% and He = 0.57) compared to the baseline (%MA = 30% and He = 0.29). An opposite trend was observed in the erythrocyte binding protein (EBP) MS marker. There was moderate genetic differentiation at the Pfg377 and TAA60 loci (FST = 0.117 and 0.137 respectively) between the baseline and post-ITN parasite populations. Further analysis revealed linkage disequilibrium (LD) of the microsatellites in the baseline (14 significant pair-wise tests and ISA = 0.016) that was broken in the follow up parasite population (6 significant pairs and ISA = 0.0003). The locus specific change in He, the moderate population differentiation and break in LD between the baseline and follow up years suggest an underlying change in population sub-structure despite the stability in the overall genetic diversity and multiple infection levels. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study suggest that although P. falciparum population maintained an overall stability in genetic diversity after five years of high ITN coverage, there was significant locus specific change associated with gametocytes, marking these for further investigation.

Polymorphisms in genes of interleukin 12 and its receptors and their association with protection against severe malarial anaemia in children in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malarial anaemia is characterized by destruction of malaria infected red blood cells and suppression of erythropoiesis. Interleukin 12 (IL12) significantly boosts erythropoietic responses in murine models of malarial anaemia and decreased IL12 levels are associated with severe malarial anaemia (SMA) in children. Based on the biological relevance of IL12 in malaria anaemia, the relationship between genetic polymorphisms of IL12 and its receptors and SMA was examined. METHODS: Fifty-five tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms covering genes encoding two IL12 subunits, IL12A and IL12B, and its receptors, IL12RB1 and IL12RB2, were examined in a cohort of 913 children residing in Asembo Bay region of western Kenya. RESULTS: An increasing copy number of minor variant (C) in IL12A (rs2243140) was significantly associated with a decreased risk of SMA (P = 0.006; risk ratio, 0.52 for carrying one copy of allele C and 0.28 for two copies). Individuals possessing two copies of a rare variant (C) in IL12RB1 (rs429774) also appeared to be strongly protective against SMA (P = 0.00005; risk ratio, 0.18). In addition, children homozygous for another rare allele (T) in IL12A (rs22431348) were associated with reduced risk of severe anaemia (SA) (P = 0.004; risk ratio, 0.69) and of severe anaemia with any parasitaemia (SAP) (P = 0.004; risk ratio, 0.66). In contrast, AG genotype for another variant in IL12RB1 (rs383483) was associated with susceptibility to high-density parasitaemia (HDP) (P = 0.003; risk ratio, 1.21). CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown strong associations between polymorphisms in the genes of IL12A and IL12RB1 and protection from SMA in Kenyan children, suggesting that human genetic variants of IL12 related genes may significantly contribute to the development of anaemia in malaria patients.

Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007.

BACKGROUND: Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund. METHODS: Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models. RESULTS: By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09-2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic falciparum malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented. CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems.

Preliminary Report of Pyrethroid Resistance in Anopheles vagus, an Important Malaria Vector in Bangladesh.

According to the WHO, unmanaged insecticide resistance may lead to increases in malaria-related mortality and morbidity. Bangladesh, having made significant progress in malaria control efforts, has recently seen an upswing in malaria cases-58% of which occurred in Bandarban district. Toward identifying entomological drivers of increased malaria, an entomological survey including Anopheles susceptibility to the insecticides in use was conducted in Bandarban. Anopheles vagus, the primary vector of malaria, was found to be resistant to both permethrin and deltamethrin-with only 29% and 55% mortality at 30 minutes, respectively. Intervention strategies in this area-all based on pyrethroids, may need to be reevaluated toward closing this gap in protection and increasing intervention efficacy.

Elevated gamma interferon-producing NK cells, CD45RO memory-like T cells, and CD4 T cells are associated with protection against malaria infection in pregnancy.

Previous studies have shown that gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) production in the placenta is associated with protection against placental malaria. However, it remains unknown which IFN-gamma-producing cell subpopulations are involved in this protection and whether the cellular immune components of protection are the same in the peripheral and the placental blood compartments. We investigated cell subpopulations for CD4, CD8, and CD45RO memory-like T cells and CD56+/CD3- natural killer (NK) cells and for IFN-gamma production by these cells in maternal peripheral and placental intervillous blood in relation to the status of malaria infection in pregnancy. Of 52 human immunodeficiency virus-negative enrolled pregnant women residing in Western Kenya, 20 had placental parasitemia. We found that the percentages of CD45RO memory-like and CD4 T cells were significantly higher in the periphery than in the placenta, while the CD56/CD3- NK-cell percentage was higher in the placenta than in the periphery, suggesting differences in immune cell profiles between the two blood compartments. Furthermore, the percentages of peripheral CD45RO memory-like and CD4 T cells were significantly elevated in aparasitemic women compared to levels in the parasitemic group, with aparasitemic multigravid women having the highest percentages of CD45RO memory-like and CD4 T cells. In contrast, at the placental level, IFN-gamma production by innate NK cells was significantly increased in aparasitemic women compared to parasitemic women, regardless of gravidity. These results suggest that the elevated IFN-gamma-producing NK cells in the placenta and CD45RO memory-like and CD4 T cells in peripheral blood may be involved in protection against malaria infection in pregnancy.

Building to collective impact: the Global Fund support for measuring reduction in the burden of malaria.

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria was established in 2002 to fund substantial scaling-up coverage of proven and effective interventions to reduce infection, illness, and deaths in those communities most at risk. As of December 2006 the Global Fund has committed $2.6 billion over 5 years to support malaria prevention and control in 85 countries. The Global Fund has worked closely with Roll Back Malaria partners to develop consensus on a set of outcome and impact indicators that have been incorporated into malaria grant agreements. Although the Global Fund has recommended that 5-10% of grant funds be invested in improving the capacity of the national monitoring and evaluation systems, an average of only 3.9% is invested in these systems. Several countries are already demonstrating reductions in the malaria burden. To sustain the scale-up in funding to support malaria interventions, countries must ensure that resources are used now to show robust, systematic, and regular measurement of impact on the burden of malaria.

Viewpoint: evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe an approach for evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on malaria-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, where disease-specific mortality trends usually cannot be measured directly and most malaria deaths occur among young children. METHODS: Methods for evaluating changes in malaria-associated mortality are examined; advantages and disadvantages are presented. RESULTS: All methods require a plausibility argument-i.e., an assumption that mortality reductions can be attributed to programmatic efforts if improvements are found in steps of the causal pathway between intervention scale-up and mortality trends. As different methods provide complementary information, they can be used together. We recommend following trends in the coverage of malaria control interventions, other factors influencing childhood mortality, malaria-associated morbidity (especially anaemia), and all-cause childhood mortality. This approach reflects decreases in malaria's direct and indirect mortality burden and can be examined in nearly all countries. Adding other information can strengthen the plausibility argument: trends in indicators of malaria transmission, information from demographic surveillance systems and sentinel sites where malaria diagnostics are systematically used, and verbal autopsies linked to representative household surveys. Health facility data on malaria deaths have well-recognized limitations; however, in specific circumstances, they could produce reliable trends. Model-based predictions can help describe changes in malaria-specific burden and assist with program management and advocacy. CONCLUSIONS: Despite challenges, efforts to reduce malaria-associated mortality in Africa can be evaluated with trends in malaria intervention coverage and all-cause childhood mortality. Where there are resources and interest, complementary data on malaria morbidity and malaria-specific mortality could be added.

Estimating the number of insecticide-treated nets required by African households to reach continent-wide malaria coverage targets.

CONTEXT: African countries are scaling up malaria interventions, especially insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), for which ambitious coverage targets have been set. OBJECTIVE: To estimate how many ITNs are available in African households that are at risk of malaria and how many ITNs are needed to reach targets for use by children younger than 5 years and pregnant women. DATA SOURCES: Primary sources of data were the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys II, the Demographic and Health Surveys, or other nationally representative or large-scale household surveys that measured household possession and use of nets or ITNs among children younger than 5 years. DATA EXTRACTION: Data from 42 household surveys between 1999 and 2006 on net and ITN coverage (either household possession or use) and average numbers of nets and ITNs per household were compared with populations and households at risk. Data are included for 43 sub-Saharan African countries. DATA SYNTHESIS: For the median survey year 2003, the population-weighted mean proportion of households possessing at least 1 ITN was 6.7% (range among countries, 0.1%-71.0%) and was 23.8% (range, 5.0%-91.2%) for any type of net. Based on an average of 0.13 ITNs per household, we estimated that 53.6 million nets, of which 16.7 million were ITNs, were available in households at risk of malaria. Between 130 million and 264 million ITNs are required in 2007 to reach the 80% coverage target for about 133 million children younger than 5 years and pregnant women living in 123 million households in risk areas; the exact number depends on usage patterns (best estimate, assuming 55% of owned ITNs are used by the target groups, 192 million ITNs). CONCLUSION: To achieve the targeted ITN usage rates, numbers of ITNs available to African households must be dramatically increased.

The burden of malaria mortality among African children in the year 2000.

BACKGROUND: Although malaria is a leading cause of child deaths, few well-documented estimates of its direct and indirect burden exist. Our objective was to estimate the number of deaths directly attributable to malaria among children <5 years old in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2000. METHODS: We divided the population into six sub-populations and, using results of studies identified in a literature review, estimated a malaria mortality rate for each sub-population. Malaria deaths were estimated by multiplying each sub-population by its corresponding rate. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of varying key assumptions. RESULTS: The literature review identified 31 studies from 14 countries in middle Africa and 17 studies and reports from four countries in southern Africa. In 2000, we estimated that approximately 100 million children lived in areas where malaria transmission occurs and that 803 620 (precision estimate: 705 821-901 418) children died from the direct effects of malaria. For all of sub-Saharan Africa, including populations not exposed to malaria, malaria accounted for 18.0% (precision estimate: 15.8-20.2%) of child deaths. These estimates were sensitive to extreme assumptions about the causes of deaths with no known cause. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates, based on the best available data and methods, clearly demonstrate malaria's enormous mortality burden. We emphasize that these estimates are an approximation with many limitations and that the estimates do not account for malaria's large indirect burden. We describe information needs that, if filled, might improve the validity of future estimates.