RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTGW), which incorporates measures of waist circumference and levels of triglyceride in blood, could act as an early-stage predictor to identify the individuals at high-risk for subclinical atherosclerosis. Previous studies have explored the cross-sectional association between HTGW and atherosclerosis; however, understanding how this association might change over time is necessary. This study will assess the association between HTGW with 5-year subclinical carotid atherosclerosis. METHODS: 517 participants of Aboriginal, Chinese, European, and South Asian ethnicities were examined for baseline HTGW and 5-year indices of subclinical atherosclerosis (intima media thickness (mm), total area (mm2), and plaque presence). Family history of cardiovascular disease, sociodemographic measures (age, sex, ethnicity, income level, maximum education), and traditional risk factors (systolic blood pressure, smoking status, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index) were incorporated into the models of association. These models used multiple linear regression and logistic regression. RESULTS: Baseline HTGW phenotype is a statistically significant and clinically meaningful predictor of 5-year intima media thickness (ß = 0.08 [0.04, 0.11], p < 0.001), total area (ß = 0.20 [0.07, 0.33], p = 0.002), and plaque presence (OR = 2.17 [1.13, 4.19], p = 0.02) compared to the non-HTGW group independent of sociodemographic factors and family history. However, this association is no longer significant after adjusting for the traditional risk factors of atherosclerosis (p = 0.27, p = 0.45, p = 0.66, respectively). Moreover, change in status of HTGW phenotype does not correlate with change in indices of atherosclerosis over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that when the traditional risk factors of atherosclerosis are known, HTGW may not offer additional value as a predictor of subclinical atherosclerosis progression over 5 years.