Estimating the impact of prevention action: a simulation model of cervical cancer progression.

Cervical cancer is one of the highest occurring cancers for women in East Africa. Many studies have shown that disease occurrences and particularly the number of deaths due to the disease can be reduced significantly by screening and vaccination. East Africa and Kenya in particular are undergoing change and taking actions to reduce disease levels. However, up until today disease level in the different districts in Kenya is not known nor what be the prevalence of disease when prevention actions take place. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian model for estimating disease levels based on available partial reports and demographic information. The result is a simulation engine that provides estimations of the impact of various potential prevention actions.

Predicting Patient's Trajectory of Physiological Data using Temporal Trends in Similar Patients: A System for Near-Term Prognostics.

Providing near-term prognostic insight to clinicians helps them to better assess the near-term impact of their decisions and potential impending events affecting the patient. In this work, we present a novel system, which leverages inter-patient similarity for retrieving patients who display similar trends in their physiological time-series data. Data from the retrieved patient cohort is then used to project patient data into the future to provide insights for the query patient. The proposed approach and system were tested using the MIMIC II database, which consists of physiological waveforms, and accompanying clinical data obtained for ICU patients. In the experiments we report the effectiveness of the inter-patient similarity measure and the accuracy of the projection of patients' data. We also discuss the visual interface that conveys the near-term prognostic decision support to the user.

Rapid-learning system for cancer care.

Compelling public interest is propelling national efforts to advance the evidence base for cancer treatment and control measures and to transform the way in which evidence is aggregated and applied. Substantial investments in health information technology, comparative effectiveness research, health care quality and value, and personalized medicine support these efforts and have resulted in considerable progress to date. An emerging initiative, and one that integrates these converging approaches to improving health care, is "rapid-learning health care." In this framework, routinely collected real-time clinical data drive the process of scientific discovery, which becomes a natural outgrowth of patient care. To better understand the state of the rapid-learning health care model and its potential implications for oncology, the National Cancer Policy Forum of the Institute of Medicine held a workshop entitled "A Foundation for Evidence-Driven Practice: A Rapid-Learning System for Cancer Care" in October 2009. Participants examined the elements of a rapid-learning system for cancer, including registries and databases, emerging information technology, patient-centered and -driven clinical decision support, patient engagement, culture change, clinical practice guidelines, point-of-care needs in clinical oncology, and federal policy issues and implications. This Special Article reviews the activities of the workshop and sets the stage to move from vision to action.