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The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.
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Aedes , Infecções por Alphavirus , Culex , Animais , Humanos , Ross River virus , Infecções por Alphavirus/epidemiologia , Mosquitos Vetores , Austrália/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Mosquito-borne disease is a significant public health issue and within Australia Ross River virus (RRV) is the most reported. This study combines a mechanistic model of mosquito development for two mosquito vectors; Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus, with climate projections from three climate models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to examine the possible effects of climate change and sea-level rise on a temperate tidal saltmarsh habitat in Perth, Western Australia. The projections were run under no accretion and accretion scenarios using a known mosquito habitat as a case study. This improves our understanding of the possible implications of sea-level rise, accretion and climate change for mosquito control programmes for similar habitats across temperate tidal areas found in Southwest Western Australia. The output of the model indicate that the proportion of the year mosquitoes are active increases. Population abundances of the two Aedes species increase markedly. The main drivers of changes in mosquito population abundances are increases in the frequency of inundation of the tidal wetland and size of the area inundated, increased minimum water temperature, and decreased daily temperature fluctuations as water depth increases due to sea level changes, particularly under the model with no accretion. The effects on mosquito populations are more marked for RCP 8.5 when compared to RCP 4.5 but were consistent among the three climate change models. The results indicate that Ae. vigilax is likely to be the most abundant species in 2030 and 2050, but that by 2070 Aedes camptorhynchus may become the more abundant species. This increase would put considerable pressure on existing mosquito control programmes and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease and nuisance biting to the local community, and planning to mitigate these potential impacts should commence now.
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Aedes , Culicidae , Animais , Austrália Ocidental , Modelos Climáticos , Mudança Climática , ÁguaRESUMO
Ross River virus (RRV), an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, is the most medically significant mosquito-borne virus of Australia. Past RRV phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses have been based on partial genome analyses only. Three geographically distinct RRV lineages, the Eastern, the Western, and the supposedly extinct North-Eastern lineage, were classified previously. We sought to expand on past phylogenies through robust genome-scale phylogeny to better understand RRV genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics. We analyzed 106 RRV complete coding sequences, which included 13 genomes available on NCBI and 94 novel sequences derived for this study, sampled throughout Western Australia (1977-2014) and during the substantial Pacific Islands RRV epidemic (1979-1980). Our final data set comprised isolates sampled over 59 years (1959-2018) from a range of locations. Four distinct genotypes were defined, with the newly described genotype 4 (G4) found to be the contemporary lineage circulating in Western Australia. The prior geographical classification of RRV lineages was not supported by our findings, with evidence of geographical and temporal cocirculation of distinct genetic groups. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis revealed that RRV lineages diverged from a common ancestor approximately 94 years ago, with distinct lineages emerging roughly every 10 years over the past 50 years in periodic bursts of genetic diversity. Our study has enabled a more robust analysis of RRV evolutionary history and resolved greater genetic diversity that had been previously defined by partial E2 gene analysis.IMPORTANCE Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia and causes a significant burden of suffering to infected individuals as well as being a large burden to the Australian economy. The genetic diversity of RRV and its evolutionary history have so far only been studied using partial E2 gene analysis with a limited number of isolates. Robust whole-genome analysis has not yet been conducted. This study generated 94 novel near-whole-genome sequences to investigate the evolutionary history of RRV to better understand its genetic diversity through comprehensive whole-genome phylogeny. A better understanding of RRV genetic diversity will enable better diagnostics, surveillance, and potential future vaccine design.
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Infecções por Alphavirus , Epidemias , Evolução Molecular , Filogenia , Ross River virus/genética , Infecções por Alphavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Alphavirus/genética , Animais , Humanos , Ross River virus/classificação , Austrália Ocidental/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Mosquitoes harbor a high diversity of RNA viruses, including many that impact human health. Despite a growing effort to describe the extent and nature of the mosquito virome, little is known about how these viruses persist, spread, and interact with both their hosts and other microbes. To address this issue we performed a metatranscriptomics analysis of 12 Western Australian mosquito populations structured by species and geographic location. Our results identified the complete genomes of 24 species of RNA viruses from a diverse range of viral families and orders, among which 19 are newly described. Comparisons of viromes revealed a striking difference between the two mosquito genera, with viromes of mosquitoes of the Aedes genus exhibiting substantially less diversity and lower abundances than those of mosquitoes of the Culex genus, within which the viral abundance reached 16.87% of the total non-rRNA. In addition, there was little overlap in viral diversity between the two genera, although the viromes were very similar among the three Culex species studied, suggesting that the host taxon plays a major role in structuring virus diversity. In contrast, we found no evidence that geographic location played a major role in shaping RNA virus diversity, and several viruses discovered here exhibited high similarity (95 to 98% nucleotide identity) to those from Indonesia and China. Finally, using abundance-level and phylogenetic relationships, we were able to distinguish potential mosquito viruses from those present in coinfecting bacteria, fungi, and protists. In sum, our metatranscriptomics approach provides important insights into the ecology of mosquito RNA viruses.IMPORTANCE Studies of virus ecology have generally focused on individual viral species. However, recent advances in bulk RNA sequencing make it possible to utilize metatranscriptomic approaches to reveal both complete virus diversity and the relative abundance of these viruses. We used such a metatranscriptomic approach to determine key aspects of the ecology of mosquito viruses in Western Australia. Our results show that RNA viruses are some of the most important components of the mosquito transcriptome, and we identified 19 new virus species from a diverse set of virus families. A key result was that host genetic background plays a more important role in shaping virus diversity than sampling location, with Culex species harboring more viruses at higher abundance than those from Aedes mosquitoes.
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Aedes/virologia , Culex/virologia , Vírus de Insetos/genética , Vírus de RNA/genética , RNA Viral/genética , Animais , Ecologia , Variação Genética , Genoma Viral , Filogenia , Análise de Sequência de RNA , Transcriptoma , Austrália OcidentalRESUMO
Mosquitoes harbor a wide diversity of microorganisms, including viruses that are human pathogens, or that are insect specific. We used metatranscriptomics, an unbiased high-throughput molecular approach, to describe the composition of viral and other microbial communities in six medically important mosquito species from across Western Australia: Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Cx. australicus, Cx. globocoxitus, Cx. pipiens biotype molestus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus. We identified 42 viral species, including 13 novel viruses, from 19 families. Culex mosquitoes exhibited a significantly higher diversity of viruses than Aedes mosquitoes, and no virus was shared between the two genera. Comparison of mosquito populations revealed a heterogenous distribution of viruses between geographical regions and between closely related species, suggesting that geography and host species may play a role in shaping virome composition. We also detected bacterial and parasitic microorganisms, among which Wolbachia bacteria were detected in three members of the Cx. pipiens complex, Cx. australicus, Cx. pipiens biotype molestus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus. In summary, our unbiased metatranscriptomics approach provides important insights into viral and other microbial diversity in Western Australian mosquitoes that vector medically important viruses.
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Worldwide, mosquito monitoring and control programs consume large amounts of resources in the effort to minimise mosquito-borne disease incidence. On-site larval monitoring is highly effective but time consuming. A number of mechanistic models of mosquito development have been developed to reduce the reliance on larval monitoring, but none for Ross River virus, the most commonly occurring mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This research modifies existing mechanistic models for malaria vectors and applies it to a wetland field site in Southwest, Western Australia. Environmental monitoring data were applied to an enzyme kinetic model of larval mosquito development to simulate timing of adult emergence and relative population abundance of three mosquito vectors of the Ross River virus for the period of 2018-2020. The model results were compared with field measured adult mosquitoes trapped using carbon dioxide light traps. The model showed different patterns of emergence for the three mosquito species, capturing inter-seasonal and inter-year variation, and correlated well with field adult trapping data. The model provides a useful tool to investigate the effects of different weather and environmental variables on larval and adult mosquito development and can be used to investigate the possible effects of changes to short-term and long-term sea level and climate changes.
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Introduction: Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus known to cause infrequent yet substantial human outbreaks around the Murray Valley region of south-eastern Australia, resulting in significant mortality. Methods: The public health response to MVEV in Victoria in 2022-2023 included a climate informed pre-season risk assessment, and vector surveillance with mosquito trapping and laboratory testing for MVEV. Human cases were investigated to collect enhanced surveillance data, and human clinical samples were subject to serological and molecular testing algorithms to assess for co-circulating flaviviruses. Equine surveillance was carried out via enhanced investigation of cases of encephalitic illness. Integrated mosquito management and active health promotion were implemented throughout the season and in response to surveillance signals. Findings: Mosquito surveillance included a total of 3,186 individual trapping events between 1 July 2022 and 20 June 2023. MVEV was detected in mosquitoes on 48 occasions. From 2 January 2023 to 23 April 2023, 580 samples (sera and CSF) were tested for flaviviruses. Human surveillance detected 6 confirmed cases of MVEV infection and 2 cases of "flavivirus-unspecified." From 1 September 2022 to 30 May 2023, 88 horses with clinical signs consistent with flavivirus infection were tested, finding one probable and no confirmed cases of MVE. Discussion: The expanded, climate-informed vector surveillance system in Victoria detected MVEV in mosquitoes in advance of human cases, acting as an effective early warning system. This informed a one-health oriented public health response including enhanced human, vector and animal surveillance, integrated mosquito management, and health promotion.
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Culicidae , Vírus da Encefalite do Vale de Murray , Encefalite por Arbovirus , Humanos , Animais , Cavalos , Vitória/epidemiologia , Encefalite por Arbovirus/epidemiologia , Encefalite por Arbovirus/diagnóstico , Saúde Pública , Estações do Ano , Mosquitos Vetores , Surtos de DoençasRESUMO
PURPOSE: Emerging data indicate comparable disease control and toxicity of normal postoperative fractionation and moderate hypofractionation radiation therapy (RT) in prostate cancer. In RADICALS-RT, patients were planned for treatment with either 66 Gy in 33 fractions (f) over 6.5 weeks or 52.5 Gy in 20f over 4 weeks. This non-randomized, exploratory analysis explored the toxicity of these 2 schedules in patients who had adjuvant RT. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Information on RT dose was collected in all patients. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group toxicity score was recorded every 4 months for 2 years, every 6 months until 5 years, then annually until 15 years. Patient-reported data were collected at baseline and at 1, 5, and 10 years using standard measures, including the Vaizey fecal incontinence score (bowel) and the International Continence Society Male Short-Form questionnaire (urinary incontinence). The highest event grade was recorded within the first 2 years and beyond 2 years and compared between treatment groups using the χ² test. RESULTS: Of 634 patients, 217 (34%) were planned for 52.5 Gy/20f and 417 (66%) for 66 Gy/33f. In the first 2 years, grade 1 to 2 cystitis was reported more frequently among the 66 Gy/33f group (52.5 Gy/20f: 20% vs 66 Gy/33f: 30%; P = .04). After 2 years, grade 1 to 2 cystitis was reported in 16% in the 66-Gy group and 9% in the 52.5-Gy group (P = .08). Other toxic effects were similar in the 2 groups, and very few patients had any grade 3 to 4 toxic effects. Patients reported slightly higher urinary and fecal incontinence scores at 1 year than at baseline, but no clinically meaningful differences were reported between the 52.5 Gy/20f and 66 Gy/33f groups. Patient-reported health was similar at baseline and at 1 year and similar between the 52.5 Gy/20f and 66 Gy/33f groups. CONCLUSIONS: Severe toxic effects were rare after prostate bed radiation therapy with either 52.5 Gy/20f or 66 Gy/33f. Only modest differences were recorded in toxic effects or in patient-reported outcomes between these 2 schedules.
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Cistite , Incontinência Fecal , Neoplasias da Próstata , Humanos , Masculino , Próstata , Incontinência Fecal/etiologia , Fracionamento da Dose de Radiação , Neoplasias da Próstata/radioterapia , Neoplasias da Próstata/cirurgia , Prostatectomia , Cistite/etiologia , Terapia de Salvação/efeitos adversos , Terapia de Salvação/métodosRESUMO
Background and study aims Despite the high-risk nature of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), a robust and standardized credentialing process to ensure competency before independent practice is lacking worldwide. On behalf of the Joint Advisory Group (JAG), we aimed to develop evidence-based recommendations to form the framework of ERCP training and certification in the UK. Methods Under the oversight of the JAG, a modified Delphi process was conducted with stakeholder representation from the British Society of Gastroenterology, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, trainees and trainers. Recommendations on ERCP training and certification were formulated after formal literature review and appraised using the GRADE tool. These were subjected to electronic voting to achieve consensus. Accepted statements were peer-reviewed by JAG and relevant Specialist Advisory Committees before incorporation into the ERCP certification pathway. Results In total, 27 recommendation statements were generated for the following domains: definition of competence (9 statements), acquisition of competence (8 statements), assessment of competence (6 statements) and post-certification support (4 statements). The consensus process led to the following criteria for ERCP certification: 1) performingâ≥â300 hands-on procedures; 2) attending a JAG-accredited ERCP skills course; 3) in modified Schutz 1-2 procedures: achieving native papilla cannulation rate ≥80%, complete bile duct clearanceâ≥â70â%, successful stenting of distal biliary stricturesâ≥â75â%, physically unassisted inâ≥â80â% of cases; 4) 30-day post-ERCP pancreatitis rates ≤5â%; and 5) satisfactory performance in formative and summative direct observation of procedural skills (DOPS) assessments. Conclusions JAG certification in ERCP has been developed following evidence-based consensus to quality assure training and to ultimately improve future standards of ERCP practice.
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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1055/a-1629-7540.].
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BACKGROUND: Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model's ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.
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Infecções por Alphavirus/epidemiologia , Modelos Estatísticos , Ross River virus , Infecções por Alphavirus/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Conceitos MeteorológicosRESUMO
The British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) and the Bangladesh Gastroenterology Society (BGS) have collaborated on an endoscopy training programme, which has grown up over the past decade from a small scheme borne out of the ideas of consultant gastroenterologists in Swansea, South Wales (United Kingdom) to improve gastroenterology services in Bangladesh to become a formalised training programme with broad reach. In this article, we document the socioeconomic and historical problems that beset Bangladesh, the current training needs of doctors and how the BSG-BGS collaboration has made inroads into changing outcomes both for gastroenterologists in Bangladesh, but also for the populations they serve.
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Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with predominant fecal oral spread. Traditionally in Western Europe it is associated with travel to endemic countries, but an increasing number of locally acquired cases have been reported throughout England. Patients presenting with acute non-travel associated HEV infection in south Wales over a 25-month period were monitored, in an attempt to understand the clinical picture and epidemiology in our patient population. Twenty-four patients were identified with non-travel associated HEV infection and studied prospectively. Patient demographics, symptoms, and serial laboratory results were recorded. There was a male/female ratio of 3:1, with a median patient age of 65.5 years old. Patients developed a significant icteric hepatitis (median peak bilirubin: 139 µmol/L, median peak AST: 1,973 IU/L and ALT: 2,021 IU/L), with liver function remaining abnormal for â¼7 weeks. All patients in whom HEV RNA was isolated were infected with genotype 3. Forty-six percent of patients presented during winter months. The data show a group mortality rate of 4.2%, similar to that reported in endemic countries. HEV results in a severe and occasionally fatal hepatitis. Testing for hepatitis E is now recommended in any patient presenting with acute hepatitis of unknown etiology.
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Vírus da Hepatite E/genética , Hepatite E/epidemiologia , Hepatite E/fisiopatologia , Doença Aguda , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Hepatite E/virologia , Vírus da Hepatite E/classificação , Vírus da Hepatite E/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Icterícia , Testes de Função Hepática , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , RNA Viral/análise , RNA Viral/genética , RNA Viral/isolamento & purificação , País de Gales/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Pre-clinical simulation-based training (SBT) in endoscopy has been shown to augment trainee performance in the short-term, but longer-term data are lacking. AIM: To assess the impact of a two-day gastroscopy induction course combining theory and SBT (Structured PRogramme of INduction and Training - SPRINT) on trainee outcomes over a 16-mo period. METHODS: This prospective case-control study compared outcomes between novice SPRINT attendees and controls matched from a United Kingdom training database. Study outcomes comprised: (1) Unassisted D2 intubation rates; (2) Procedural discomfort scores; (3) Sedation practice; (4) Time to 200 procedures; and (5) Time to certification. RESULTS: Total 15 cases and 24 controls were included, with mean procedure counts of 10 and 3 (P = 0.739) pre-SPRINT. Post-SPRINT, no significant differences between the groups were detected in long-term D2 intubation rates (P = 0.332) or discomfort scores (P = 0.090). However, the cases had a significantly higher rate of unsedated procedures than controls post-SPRINT (58% vs 44%, P = 0.018), which was maintained over the subsequent 200 procedures. Cases tended to perform procedures at a greater frequency than controls in the post-SPRINT period (median: 16.2 vs 13.8 per mo, P = 0.051), resulting in a significantly greater proportion of cases achieving gastroscopy certification by the end of follow up (75% vs 36%, P = 0.017). CONCLUSION: In this pilot study, attendees of the SPRINT cohort tended to perform more procedures and achieved gastroscopy certification earlier than controls. These data support the role for wider evaluation of pre-clinical induction involving SBT.
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The discovery of hepaciviruses in non-human hosts has accelerated following the advancement of high-throughput sequencing technology. Hepaciviruses have now been described in reptiles, fish, birds, and an extensive array of mammals. Using metagenomic sequencing on pooled samples of field-collected Culex annulirostris mosquitoes, we discovered a divergent hepacivirus-like sequence, named Jogalong virus, from the Kimberley region in northern Western Australia. Using PCR, we screened the same 300 individual mosquitoes and found just a single positive sample (1/300, 0.33%). Phylogenetic analysis of the hepacivirus NS5B protein places Jogalong virus within the genus Hepacivirus but on a distinct and deeply rooted monophyletic branch shared with duck hepacivirus, suggesting a notably different evolutionary history. Vertebrate barcoding PCR targeting two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and cytochrome b, indicated that the Jogalong virus-positive mosquito had recently fed on the tawny frogmouth (Podargus strigoides), although it is currently unknown whether this bird species contributes to the natural ecology of this virus.
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Culex/virologia , Genoma Viral , Hepacivirus/genética , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Filogenia , Animais , Hepacivirus/classificação , Hepacivirus/patogenicidade , Proteínas Virais/genética , Austrália OcidentalRESUMO
Metagenomics revealed an impressive breadth of previously unrecognized viruses. Here, we report the virome of the Culex annulirostris Skuse mosquito, an important vector of pathogenic arboviruses in Australia. Mosquitoes were collected from three sites in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Unbiased high-throughput sequencing (HTS) revealed the presence of 16 novel viral sequences that share less than 90% identity with known viruses. None were closely related to pathogenic arboviruses. Viruses were distributed unevenly across sites, indicating a heterogeneous Cx. annulirostris virome. Polymerase chain reaction assays confirmed HTS data and identified marked variation between the virus prevalence identified at each site.
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Culex/virologia , Metagenômica , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Viroma , Vírus/classificação , Animais , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala , Vírus/isolamento & purificação , Austrália OcidentalRESUMO
Barmah Forest virus (BFV) is a medically important mosquito-borne alphavirus endemic to Australia. Symptomatic disease can be a major cause of morbidity, associated with fever, rash, and debilitating arthralgia. BFV disease is similar to that caused by Ross River virus (RRV), the other major Australian alphavirus. Currently, just four BFV whole-genome sequences are available with no genome-scale phylogeny in existence to robustly characterise genetic diversity. Thirty novel genome sequences were derived for this study, for a final 34-taxon dataset sampled over a 44 year period. Three distinct BFV genotypes were characterised (G1-3) that have circulated in Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Evidence of spatio-temporal co-circulation of G2 and G3 within regions of Australia was noted, including in the South West region of Western Australia (WA) during the first reported disease outbreaks in the state's history. Compared with RRV, the BFV population appeared more stable with less frequent emergence of novel lineages. Preliminary in vitro assessment of RRV and BFV replication kinetics found that RRV replicates at a significantly faster rate and to a higher, more persistent titre compared with BFV, perhaps indicating mosquitoes may be infectious with RRV for longer than with BFV. This investigation resolved a greater diversity of BFV, and a greater understanding of the evolutionary dynamics and history was attained.
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Alphavirus/genética , Genoma Viral , Filogenia , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma , Alphavirus/classificação , Alphavirus/fisiologia , Infecções por Alphavirus/virologia , Animais , Austrália , Chlorocebus aethiops , Culicidae/virologia , Variação Genética , Papua Nova Guiné , Análise de Sequência de DNA , Fatores de Tempo , Células Vero , Replicação ViralRESUMO
Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.
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Infecções por Alphavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Previsões , Modelos Teóricos , Infecções por Alphavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Alphavirus/virologia , Animais , Humanos , Saúde Pública , Ross River virus , VitóriaRESUMO
(1) Background: Vector-borne diseases are a significant public health problem in Western Australia. Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of a number of pathogens and may pose a serious nuisance problem. Prevention efforts in the State are multi-faceted and include physical, chemical, and cultural control methods for restricting mosquito breeding. This is less complex where breeding areas are located within public open spaces. In Australia's developed urban areas, breeding sites are, however, frequently located within private residential landholdings, where the scope of public health officials to act is constrained by law and practicality. Consequently, mosquito prevention in these locations is predominantly the responsibility of the residents. This research addressed a gap, both in understanding the degree to which "backyard" mosquito breeding has the potential to contribute to local mosquito problems, and in assessing what residents "think and do" about mosquito control within their home environment. (2) Methods: The study was conducted in the Town of Bassendean, a metropolitan Local Government Area of Perth, Western Australia, in close proximity to two natural, productive mosquito breeding sites, namely Ashfield Flats and Bindaring Park. A total of 150 householders were randomly surveyed during the summer of 2015-2016, to gauge residents' knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP (knowledge, attitudes, and practices) Survey) in regards to mosquitoes, their breeding and ecology, and avoidance or minimization strategies. The survey comprised nine questions covering residents' knowledge (3 questions), attitudes (3 questions), and practices (3 questions), as well as additional questions regarding the basic demographics of the resident. Larvae were collected from backyard containers and reared to adults for species identification. A series of Encephalitis Vector Surveillance carbon dioxide (EVS CO2) traps were also deployed, to assess adult mosquito density and species composition. (3) Results: Aedes notoscriptus (Skuse), a known container-inhabiting species, accounted for just over 50% of all mosquitoes identified. Most residents were aware of mosquito-borne disease and its risk in their local area. While the majority (79%) of the sample correctly identified Ross River virus as the most common infection in WA, a significant gap in the general knowledge of residents in regards to mosquito biology and breeding habits, was noted. Furthermore, only 50% of residents reported using personal protective measures to reduce mosquito bites and only one in six residents undertook physical or chemical mosquito control around their home. Additionally, 60% of respondents believed that mosquito control was "a job for the council and the state government", rather than for individual householders. (4) Conclusions: A significant gap in the knowledge of residents in the study area existed in regards to the general knowledge of mosquitoes and their breeding habits; types of treatments that could be employed within the home; and the residents' responsibility for the management of mosquito breeding on their private property. A public education campaign has been deployed to educate the residents.
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Culicidae , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Habitação , Controle de Mosquitos , Aedes , Animais , Cruzamento , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , Insetos Vetores , Larva , Saúde Pública , Risco , Estações do Ano , Inquéritos e Questionários , Austrália OcidentalRESUMO
While the development of land for residential housing along the Swan and Canning Rivers in Perth, WA, Australia has reduced natural mosquito breeding sites, the role of backyard container breeding remains a relatively unknown factor. Local Governments responsible for these areas focus management and control efforts on low lying, tidally driven mosquito habitats to control Aedes vigilax (Skuse) and Aedes camptorhynchus (Thomson) mosquitoes in an effort to reduce both the nuisance and disease risk to residents. In spite of their efforts, Local Governments continue to receive complaints regarding mosquito nuisance, even when environmental conditions do not favor hatching and development of the two species in the Swan River tidal flats. In this study, 150 backyard inspections were conducted in the residential suburb of Bassendean, Perth, WA, Australia, situated in close proximity to the Swan River tidal plain. The occurrence and species composition of the mosquito fauna found in residential backyards was documented. Of the backyards inspected, 94% were found to possess containers capable of breeding mosquitoes, although only 3% contained mosquito larvae. Nine species of mosquito were collected from containers ranging in capacity from 0.05 to 50 L across the study area. Additionally, encephalitis virus surveillance trapping was conducted within residential properties and compared to the tidally driven natural habitat at Ashfield Flats and a tidally influenced brackish creekline at Bindaring Park. The species composition of the fauna at the three habitat types differed significantly, with Aedes notoscriptus (Skuse) dominating residential lots and A. vigilax more prevalent at the saltmarsh site. Bindaring Park had an adult composition at the mid-point of these two habitats, reflecting its proximity to both the Swan River and residential lots.