Monitoring progress towards the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in key populations living with HIV in Norway.

BACKGROUND: In line with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 target, Norway aims for at least 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) to know their HIV-status. We produced current estimates of the number of PLHIV and undiagnosed population in Norway, overall and for six key subpopulations: Norwegian-born men who have sex with men (MSM), migrant MSM, Norwegian-born heterosexuals, migrant Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)-born heterosexuals, migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals and people who inject drugs. METHODS: We used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling Tool on Norwegian HIV surveillance data through 2018 to estimate incidence, time from infection to diagnosis, PLHIV, and the number and proportion undiagnosed. As surveillance data on CD4 count at diagnosis were not collected in Norway, we ran two models; using default model CD4 assumptions, or a proxy for CD4 distribution based on Danish national surveillance data. We also generated alternative overall PLHIV estimates using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model, to compare with those obtained from the ECDC tool. RESULTS: Estimates of the overall number of PLHIV in 2018 using different modelling approaches aligned at approximately 5000. In both ECDC models, the overall number undiagnosed decreased continuously from 2008. The proportion undiagnosed in 2018 was lower using default model CD4 assumptions (7.1% [95%CI: 5.3-8.9%]), than the Danish CD4 proxy (10.2% [8.3-12.1%]). This difference was driven by results for heterosexual migrants. Estimates for Norwegian-born MSM, migrant MSM and Norwegian-born heterosexuals were similar in both models. In these three subpopulations, incidence in 2018 was < 30 new infections, and the number undiagnosed had decreased in recent years. Norwegian-born MSM had the lowest estimated number of undiagnosed infections (45 [30-75], using default CD4 assumptions) and undiagnosed fraction (3.6% [2.4-5.7%], using default CD4 assumptions) in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Results allow cautious confidence in concluding that Norway has achieved the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target, and clearly highlight the success of prevention strategies among MSM. Estimates for subpopulations strongly influenced by migration remain less clear, and future modelling should appropriately account for all-cause mortality and out-migration, and adjust for time of in-migration.

Norway is on the verge of ending the HIV epidemic. / Norge er i ferd med å stanse hivepidemien.

One of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic by 2030. The first milestone, the '90­90­90 treatment targets', is supposed to be achieved this year. We believe Norway has reached these targets.

Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011.

BACKGROUND: Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics. METHODS: The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time. RESULTS: During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%). CONCLUSIONS: Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

Epidemiology of acute and chronic hepatitis B virus infection in Norway, 1992-2009.

BACKGROUND: Norway is classified as a low prevalence country for hepatitis B virus infection. Vaccination is only recommended for risk groups (intravenous drug users (IDUs), Men who have Sex with Men (MSM), immigrants and contacts of known carriers). We describe the epidemiology of reported cases of hepatitis B in Norway, during the years 1992-2009 in order to assess the validity of current risk groups and recommend preventive measures. METHODS: We used case based data from the national surveillance system on acute and chronic hepatitis B. The Norwegian Statistics Bureau provided population and migration data and the Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research the estimated number of active IDUs between 2002-2007. Incidence rates (IR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for acute hepatitis B and notification rates (NR) and notification rate ratios (NRR) for chronic hepatitis B with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: The annual IR of acute hepatitis B ranged from 0.7/100,000 (1992) to 10.6/100,000 (1999). Transmission occurred mainly among IDUs (64%) or through sexual contact (24%). The risk of acquiring acute hepatitis B was highest in people aged 20-29 (IRR = 6.6 [3.3-13.3]), and in males (IRR = 2.4 [1.7-3.3]). We observed two peaks of newly reported chronic hepatitis B cases in 2003 and 2009 (NR = 17.6/100,000 and 17.4/100,000, respectively). Chronic hepatitis B was more likely to be diagnosed among immigrants than among Norwegians (NRR = 93 [71.9-120.6]), and among those 20-29 compared to those 50-59 (NRR = 5.2 [3.5-7.9]). CONCLUSIONS: IDUs remain the largest risk group for acute hepatitis B. The observed peaks of chronic hepatitis B are related to increased immigration from high endemic countries and screening and vaccination of these groups is important to prevent further spread of infection. Universal screening of pregnant women should be introduced. A universal vaccination strategy should be considered, given the high cost of reaching the target populations. We recommend evaluating the surveillance system for hepatitis B as well as the effectiveness of screening and vaccinating immigrant populations.

Syphilis epidemiology in Norway, 1992-2008: resurgence among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the number of syphilis cases has stabilised in many countries of Western Europe, however several countries have reported increases among men who have sex with men (MSM). The aim of this article was to describe the epidemiology of early syphilis in Norway in 1992-2008. METHODS: Cases of early syphilis and congenital syphilis reported to the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS) 1992-2008 were described by route of transmission, gender, age, birthplace, stage of disease, HIV co-infection, source partner and place of infection. RESULTS: The incidence of reported syphilis ranged from 0.05 (1992) to 1.50 (2002) per 100 000 person-years. Of 562 cases reported to MSIS during the study period, 62% were men infected by another man. The proportion of those, infected homosexually increased from 0 (1992-1994) to 77% (2008). Most of them were Norwegians (83%). The proportion of HIV co-infection among homosexually infected increased over time and reached 39% in 2008. The majority reported being infected by a casual partner (73%) and in the municipality of Oslo (72%). Of 152 heterosexually infected men 64% were Norwegians; 51% were infected by casual contacts and 20% by commercial sex workers; 73% were infected abroad. Among 56 women, 57% were Norwegians, 57% were infected by a steady partner and 40% were infected abroad. Almost half (46%) were diagnosed in the early latent stage. Four cases had congenital syphilis, two of whom were adopted from abroad. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis is rare in Norway, but MSM represent almost two thirds of cases. The increase of HIV co-infected cases among MSM may enhance transmission of both infections. We recommend sexually active MSM to be tested for syphilis 2-4 times a year. Due to its variable clinical course, syphilis might be difficult to recognise at an early stage among women in a low-prevalence population. We estimate current practice of prenatal screening in Norway as sufficient.

Sudden emergence of a Neisseria gonorrhoeae clade with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, Norway.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (ST)-7827 emerged in a dramatic fashion in Norway in the period 2016-2018. Here, we aim to shed light on the provenance and expansion of this ST. ST-7827 was found to be polyphyletic, but the majority of members belonged to a monophyletic clade we termed PopPUNK cluster 7827 (PC-7827). In Norway, both PC-7827 and ST-7827 isolates were almost exclusively isolated from men. Phylogeographical analyses demonstrated an Asian origin of the genogroup, with multiple inferred exports to Europe and the USA. The genogroup was uniformly resistant to fluoroquinolones, and associated with reduced susceptibility to both azithromycin and the extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs) cefixime and ceftriaxone. From a genetic background including the penA allele 13.001, associated with reduced ESC susceptibility, we identified repeated events of acquisition of porB alleles associated with further reduction in ceftriaxone susceptibility. Transmission of the strain was significantly reduced in Norway in 2019, but our results indicate the existence of a recently established global reservoir. The worrisome drug-resistance profile and rapid emergence of PC-7827 calls for close monitoring of the situation.

[HIV-infection in Norway before 2006]. / Hivinfeksjon i Norge før 2006.

BACKGROUND: Our goal is to give an epidemiological description of the HIV epidemic in Norway until 2006, with emphasis on the decade 1996 - 2005. METHODS: We analysed data from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. In this system, the year of infection has been estimated using results of previous tests and other information. We can thus measure an annual minimum incidence of HIV infection. RESULTS: Before 2006, HIV infection had been diagnosed in 3263 persons in Norway. Persons who had been heterosexually infected before arrival in Norway and homosexual men account for one third of the total each, while injecting drug users and persons who have been heterosexually infected while living in Norway comprise one sixth each. Each year for the last few years about 50 persons have been infected homosexually, 20 heterosexually and 10 by injecting drug use. In addition, every year at least 100 heterosexually infected immigrants have arrived in Norway. INTERPRETATION: The HIV epidemic is considerable in Norway, although far from the prospects one had 20 years ago. The prevention of HIV infection must continue. Presently, prevention among homosexual men should be prioritised. In addition, continued measures are needed among injecting drug users and men who engage with casual sex partners in countries with a high prevalence of HIV infection.

[The HIV situation in Northwest Russia and the Baltic]. / Hivsituasjonen i våre naerområder.

BACKGROUND: An increased incidence of communicable diseases, especially HIV-infection, has since the mid 1990ies been observed in Northwest Russia and the Baltic countries. Injecting drug use has until now been the most important factor in the spread of HIV in the area. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This paper is based on surveillance data published by EuroHIV, Epi North and the Norwegian notification system for communicable diseases, and on personal experience. We present an overview of the epidemiological HIV situation in Northwest Russia and the countries of the Baltic Sea area, and the effect this has on the HIV-epidemic in Norway. RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION: In Northwest Russia and the Baltic countries, a sharp rise of newly diagnosed HIV-cases started in 1998 and a peak was observed in 2001. The reduction of reported cases observed during the last few years is mainly caused by fewer newly diagnosed HIV-cases in intravenous drug users. An increasing proportion of the newly diagnosed cases of HIV occur among women. It is uncertain if this reflects sexual spread to drug users' partners, or if it is the beginning of a heterosexual epidemic in the general population. Men who have sex with men do currently not account for a large proportion of total cases in Northwest Russia and the Baltic countries, but stigmatisation of this group may cause underreporting of this transmission route. The epidemiological situation in the neighbouring countries has had little effect on the HIV epidemic in Norway. This is probably because HIV in Northwest Russia until now has been limited to social groups that have little contact with Norway or Norwegians visiting Russia.

Agreement between physiotherapists rating scapular posture in multiple planes in patients with neck pain: Reliability study.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of scapular posture is an integral component of the clinical assessment of painful neck disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate agreement between therapist judgements of scapula posture in multiple biomechanical planes in individuals with neck pain. DESIGN: Inter-therapist reliability study. SETTING: Research laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen participants with chronic neck pain. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Four physiotherapists recorded ratings of scapular orientation (relative to the thorax) in five different scapula postural planes (plane of scapula, sagittal plane, transverse plane, horizontal plane, and vertical plane) under four test conditions (at rest, and during three isometric shoulder conditions) in all participants. Inter-therapist reliability was expressed using both generalized and paired kappa coefficient. RESULTS: Following adjustment for expected agreement and the high prevalence of neutral ratings (81%), on average both the generalised kappa (0.37) as well as Cohen's Kappa for the two therapist pairs (0.45 and 0.42) demonstrated only slight to moderate inter-therapist reliability. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that ratings of scapular posture in individuals with neck pain by visual inspection has only slight to moderate reliability and should only be used in conjunction with other clinical tests when judging scapula function in these patients.

Unemployment, labor force composition and sickness absence: a panel data study.

Sickness absence tends to be negatively correlated with unemployment rates. In addition to pure health effects, this may be due to moral hazard behavior by workers who are fully insured against income loss during sickness and to physicians who meet demand for medical certificates. Alternatively, it may reflect changes in the composition of the labor force, with more sickness-prone workers entering the labor force in upturns. A panel of Norwegian register data is used to analyze long-term sickness absences. The unemployment rate is shown to be negatively associated with the probability of absence, and with the number of days of sick leave. Restricting the sample to workers who are present in the whole sample period, the negative relationship between absence and unemployment becomes clearer. This indicates that procyclical variations in sickness absence are caused by established workers and not by the composition of the labor force.

No evidence of an epidemic of locally acquired heterosexual HIV infection in Norway.

BACKGROUND: An early sign of a major heterosexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic will be heterosexual infection acquired from persons who were themselves infected through heterosexual intercourse. GOAL: To test the hypothesis that there is a growing heterosexual epidemic of HIV in Norway. STUDY DESIGN: Data from the mandatory, comprehensive, anonymous HIV case reporting system were analyzed concerning Norwegian residents who had acquired HIV heterosexually and for whom such infections were diagnosed before the year 2001. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-five (71%) of 221 men were infected abroad, whereas 107 (76%) of 140 women were infected in Norway (mainly by drug injectors and immigrants); 23 men and 55 women had been infected in Norway by partners who themselves acquired HIV through heterosexual intercourse (secondary heterosexual transmission). There was a slightly increasing incidence of all heterosexual cases and secondary cases. CONCLUSIONS: Secondary heterosexual HIV transmission remains rare in Norway, and a sustainable epidemic of locally acquired infection seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. The magnitude of the heterosexual epidemic will be strongly influenced by infections acquired abroad.