Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate.

The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an 'extinction debt'. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these processes to the local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, whereas novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels. Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at warming < 2 °C for two species. Projected population declines under both warming and with novel species were primarily driven by increased mortality. Our results suggest that extinction debt can be explained by a combination of demographic inertia and lags in novel species establishment, with the latter being particularly important for some species under low levels of warming.

Competitors alter selection on alpine plants exposed to experimental climate change.

Investigating how climate change alters selection regimes is a crucial step toward understanding the potential of populations to evolve in the face of changing conditions. Previous studies have mainly focused on understanding how changing climate directly influences selection, while the role of species' interactions has received little attention. Here, we used a transplant experiment along an elevation gradient to estimate how climate warming and competitive interactions lead to shifts in directional phenotypic selection on morphology and phenology of four alpine plants. We found that warming generally imposed novel selection, with the largest shifts in regimes acting on specific leaf area and flowering time across species. Competitors instead weakened the selection acting on traits that was imposed directly by warming. Weakened or absent selection in the presence of competitors was largely associated with the suppression of absolute means and variation of fitness. Our results suggest that although climate change can impose strong selection, competitive interactions within communities might act to limit selection and thereby stymie evolutionary responses in alpine plants facing climate change.

Adapting to change: Exploring the consequences of climate-induced host plant shifts in two specialist Lepidoptera species.

Asynchronous migration of insect herbivores and their host plants towards higher elevations following climate warming is expected to generate novel plant-insect interactions. While the disassociation of specialised interactions can challenge species' persistence, consequences for specialised low-elevation insect herbivores encountering novel high-elevation plants under climate change remain largely unknown. To explore the ability of two low-elevation Lepidoptera species, Melitaea celadussa and Zygaena filipendulae, to undergo shifts from low- to high-elevation host plants, we combined a translocation experiment performed at two elevations in the Swiss Alps with experiments conducted under controlled conditions. Specifically, we exposed M. celadussa and Z. filipendulae to current low- and congeneric high-elevation host plants, to test how shifts in host plant use impact oviposition probability, number of eggs clutches laid, caterpillar feeding preference and growth, pupation rate and wing size. While our study shows that both M. celadussa and Z. filipendulae can oviposit and feed on novel high-elevation host plants, we reveal strong preferences towards ovipositing and feeding on current low-elevation host plants. In addition, shifts from current low- to novel high-elevation host plants reduced pupation rates as well as wing size for M. celadussa, while caterpillar growth was unaffected by host plant identity for both species. Our study suggests that populations of M. celadussa and Z. filipendulae have the ability to undergo host plant shifts under climate change. However, these shifts may impact the ability of populations to respond to rapid climate change by altering developmental processes and morphology. Our study highlights the importance of considering altered biotic interactions when predicting consequences for natural populations facing novel abiotic and biotic environments.

Lowland plant arrival in alpine ecosystems facilitates a decrease in soil carbon content under experimental climate warming.

Climate warming is releasing carbon from soils around the world, constituting a positive climate feedback. Warming is also causing species to expand their ranges into new ecosystems. Yet, in most ecosystems, whether range expanding species will amplify or buffer expected soil carbon loss is unknown. Here, we used two whole-community transplant experiments and a follow-up glasshouse experiment to determine whether the establishment of herbaceous lowland plants in alpine ecosystems influences soil carbon content under warming. We found that warming (transplantation to low elevation) led to a negligible decrease in alpine soil carbon content, but its effects became significant and 52% ± 31% (mean ± 95% confidence intervals) larger after lowland plants were introduced at low density into the ecosystem. We present evidence that decreases in soil carbon content likely occurred via lowland plants increasing rates of root exudation, soil microbial respiration, and CO2 release under warming. Our findings suggest that warming-induced range expansions of herbaceous plants have the potential to alter climate feedbacks from this system, and that plant range expansions among herbaceous communities may be an overlooked mediator of warming effects on carbon dynamics.

In a terrestrial ecosystem, the carbon cycle primarily represents the balance between plants consuming carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and soil microbes releasing carbon stored in the soil into the atmosphere (mostly as carbon dioxide). Given that carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere, the balance of carbon inputs and outputs from an ecosystem can have important consequences for climate change. Rising temperatures caused by climate warming have led plants from lowland ecosystems to migrate uphill and start growing in alpine ecosystems, where temperatures are lower and most carbon is stored in the soil. Soil microbes use carbon stored in the soil and exuded from plants to grow, and they release this carbon ­ in the form of carbon dioxide ­ into the atmosphere through respiration. Walker et al. wanted to know how the arrival of lowland plants in alpine ecosystems under climate warming would affect carbon stores in the soil. To answer this question, Walker et al. simulated warmer temperatures by moving turfs (plants and soil) from alpine ecosystems to a warmer downhill site and planting lowland plants into the turfs. They compared the concentration of soil carbon in these turfs to that of soil in alpine turfs that had not been moved downhill and had no lowland plants. Their results showed that the warmed turfs containing lowland plants had a lower concentration of soil carbon. This suggests that climate warming will lead to more soil carbon being released into the atmosphere if lowland plants also migrate into alpine ecosystems. Walker et al. also wanted to know the mechanism through which lowland plants were decreasing soil carbon concentration under warming. They find that lowland plants probably release more small molecules into the soil than alpine plants. Soil microbes use the carbon and nutrients in these molecules to break down more complex molecules in the soil, thereby releasing nutrients and carbon that can then be used in respiration. This finding suggests that soil microbes breakdown and respire native soil carbon faster in the presence of lowland plants, releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and reducing carbon stores in the soil. Walker et al.'s results reveal a new mechanism through which uphill migration of lowland plants could increase the effects of climate change, in a feedback loop. Further research as to whether this mechanism occurs in different regions and ecosystems could help to quantify the magnitude of this feedback and allow scientists to make more accurate predictions about climate change.