Systematic Review of Clinical Prediction Models for the Risk of Emergency Caesarean Births.

BACKGROUND: Globally, caesarean births (CB), including emergency caesareans births (EmCB), are rising. It is estimated that nearly a third of all births will be CB by 2030. OBJECTIVES: Identify and summarise the results from studies developing and validating prognostic multivariable models predicting the risk of EmCBs. Ultimately understanding the accuracy of their development, and whether they are operationalised for use in routine clinical practice. SEARCH STRATEGY: Studies were identified using databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central and Scopus with a search strategy tailored to models predicting EmCBs. SELECTION CRITERIA: Prospective studies developing and validating clinical prediction models, with two or more covariates, to predict risk of EmCB. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted onto a proforma using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). RESULTS: In total, 8083 studies resulted in 56 unique prediction modelling studies and seven validating studies, with a total of 121 different predictors. Frequently occurring predictors included maternal height, maternal age, parity, BMI and gestational age. PROBAST highlighted 33 studies with low overall bias, and these all internally validated their model. Thirteen studies externally validated; only eight of these were graded an overall low risk of bias. Six models offered applications that could be readily used, but only one provided enough time to offer a planned caesarean birth (pCB). These well-refined models have not been recalibrated since development. Only one model, developed in a relatively low-risk population, with data collected a decade ago, remains useful at 36 weeks for arranging a pCB. CONCLUSION: To improve personalised clinical conversations, there is a pressing need for a model that accurately predicts the timely risk of an EmCB for women across diverse clinical backgrounds. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number: CRD42023384439.

Monofilament suture versus braided suture thread to improve pregnancy outcomes after vaginal cervical cerclage (C-STICH): a pragmatic randomised, controlled, phase 3, superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Miscarriage in the second trimester and preterm birth are significant global problems. Vaginal cervical cerclage is performed to prevent pregnancy loss and preterm birth. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of a monofilament suture thread compared with braided suture thread on pregnancy loss rates in women undergoing a cervical cerclage. METHODS: C-STICH was a pragmatic, randomised, controlled, superiority trial done at 75 obstetric units in the UK. Women with a singleton pregnancy who received a vaginal cervical cerclage due to a history of pregnancy loss or premature birth, or if indicated by ultrasound, were centrally randomised (1:1) using minimisation to receive a monofilament suture or braided suture thread for their cervical cerclage. Women and outcome assessors were masked to allocation as far as possible. The primary outcome was pregnancy loss, defined as miscarriage, stillbirth, or neonatal death in the first week of life, analysed in the intention-to-treat population (ie, all women who were randomly assigned). Safety was also assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN15373349. FINDINGS: Between Aug 21, 2015, and Jan 28, 2021, 2049 women were randomly assigned to receive a monofilament suture (n=1025) or braided suture (n=1024). The primary outcome was ascertained in 1003 women in the monofilament suture group and 993 women in the braided suture group. Pregnancy loss occurred in 80 (8·0%) of 1003 women in the monofilament suture group and 75 (7·6%) of 993 women in the braided suture group (adjusted risk ratio 1·05 [95% CI 0·79 to 1·40]; adjusted risk difference 0·002 [95% CI -0·02 to 0·03]). INTERPRETATION: Monofilament suture did not reduce rate of pregnancy loss when compared with a braided suture. Clinicians should use the results of this trial to facilitate discussions around the choice of suture thread to optimise outcomes. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

PROMPT: Prospective Meta-analysis for Pessary Trials Study Protocol.

OBJECTIVE: Preterm birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks of gestation, is a leading cause of perinatal and infant mortality throughout the world. Preterm birth is also associated with long-term neurological disabilities and other significant health issues in children. A short cervix in the second trimester has been noted to be one of the strongest predictors of subsequent spontaneous preterm birth in both singleton and multiple pregnancies. Some studies have shown that cervical support in the form of an Arabin pessary lowers the risk of preterm birth in women with a singleton gestation and short cervical length; however, other studies have conflicting results. Our objective was to form an international collaborative of planned or ongoing randomized trials of pessary in singleton and twin gestations with a short cervix. STUDY DESIGN: In November 2014, an international group of investigators, who had initiated or were planning randomized trials of pessary for pregnant people with a short cervix and singleton or twin gestation to prevent preterm birth, formed a collaboration to plan a prospective individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomized trials (PROspective Meta-analysis of Pessary Trials [PROMPT]). The PROMPT investigators agreed on meta-analysis IPD hypotheses for singletons and twins, eligibility criteria, and a set of core baseline and outcome measures. The primary outcome is a composite of fetal death or preterm delivery before 32 weeks' gestation. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidities. The PROMPT protocol may be viewed as a written agreement among the study investigators who make up the PROMPT consortium (PROSPERO ID# CRD42018067740). RESULTS: Results will be published in phases as the individual participating studies are concluded and published. Results of the first phase of singleton and twin pessary trials are expected to be available in late 2022. Updates are planned as participating trials are completed and published. KEY POINTS: · Short cervical length predicts preterm birth.. · Results of prior cervical pessary trials are mixed.. · Meta-analysis of pessary trials protocol..

A national service for delivering CD19 CAR-Tin large B-cell lymphoma - The UK real-world experience.

CD19 CAR-T have emerged as a new standard treatment for relapsed/refractory (r/r) large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL). CAR-T real-world (RW) outcomes published to date suggest significant variability across countries. We provide results of a large national cohort of patients intended to be treated with CAR-T in the UK. Consecutive patients with r/r LBCL approved for CAR-T by the National CAR-T Clinical Panel between December 2018 and November 2020 across all UK CAR-T centres were included. 404/432 patients were approved [292 axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel), 112 tisagenlecleucel (tisa-cel)], 300 (74%) received the cells. 110/300 (38.3%) patients achieved complete remission (CR) at 6 months (m). The overall response rate was 77% (52% CR) for axi-cel, 57% (44% CR) for tisa-cel. The 12-month progression-free survival was 41.8% (axi-cel) and 27.4% (tisa-cel). Median overall survival for the intention-to-treat population was 10.5 m, 16.2 m for infused patients. The incidence of grade ≥3 cytokine release syndrome and neurotoxicity were 7.6%/19.6% for axi-cel and 7.9%/3.9% for tisa-cel. This prospective RW population of CAR-T eligible patients offers important insights into the clinical benefit of CD19 CAR-T in LBCL in daily practice. Our results confirm long-term efficacy in patients receiving treatment similar to the pivotal trials, but highlight the significance of early CAR-T failure.

A Randomized Trial of Progesterone in Women with Bleeding in Early Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding in early pregnancy is strongly associated with pregnancy loss. Progesterone is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. Several small trials have suggested that progesterone therapy may improve pregnancy outcomes in women who have bleeding in early pregnancy. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate progesterone, as compared with placebo, in women with vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy. Women were randomly assigned to receive vaginal suppositories containing either 400 mg of progesterone or matching placebo twice daily, from the time at which they presented with bleeding through 16 weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was the birth of a live-born baby after at least 34 weeks of gestation. The primary analysis was performed in all participants for whom data on the primary outcome were available. A sensitivity analysis of the primary outcome that included all the participants was performed with the use of multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: A total of 4153 women, recruited at 48 hospitals in the United Kingdom, were randomly assigned to receive progesterone (2079 women) or placebo (2074 women). The percentage of women with available data for the primary outcome was 97% (4038 of 4153 women). The incidence of live births after at least 34 weeks of gestation was 75% (1513 of 2025 women) in the progesterone group and 72% (1459 of 2013 women) in the placebo group (relative rate, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.07; P = 0.08). The sensitivity analysis, in which missing primary outcome data were imputed, resulted in a similar finding (relative rate, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.07; P = 0.08). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among women with bleeding in early pregnancy, progesterone therapy administered during the first trimester did not result in a significantly higher incidence of live births than placebo. (Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; PRISM Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN14163439.).

Awareness of fetal movements and care package to reduce fetal mortality (AFFIRM): a trial-based and model-based cost-effectiveness analysis from a stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The AFFIRM intervention aimed to reduce stillbirth and neonatal deaths by increasing awareness of reduced fetal movements (RFM) and implementing a care pathway when women present with RFM. Although there is uncertainty regarding the clinical effectiveness of the intervention, the aim of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial was conducted in thirty-three hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. All women giving birth at the study sites during the analysis period were included in the study. The costs associated with implementing the intervention were estimated from audits of RFM attendances and electronic healthcare records. Trial data were used to estimate a cost per stillbirth prevented was for AFFIRM versus standard care. A decision analytic model was used to estimate the costs and number of perinatal deaths (stillbirths + early neonatal deaths) prevented if AFFIRM were rolled out across Great Britain for one year. Key assumptions were explored in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Direct costs to implement AFFIRM were an estimated £95,126 per 1,000 births. Compared to standard care, the cost per stillbirth prevented was estimated to be between £86,478 and being dominated (higher costs, no benefit). The estimated healthcare budget impact of implementing AFFIRM across Great Britain was a cost increase of £61,851,400/year. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal deaths are relatively rare events in the UK which can increase uncertainty in economic evaluations. This evaluation estimated a plausible range of costs to prevent baby deaths which can inform policy decisions in maternity services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov , number NCT01777022 .

Evaluation of the Arabin cervical pessary for prevention of preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and short cervix (STOPPIT-2): An open-label randomised trial and updated meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preterm-labour-associated preterm birth is a common cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity in twin pregnancy. We aimed to test the hypothesis that the Arabin pessary would reduce preterm-labour-associated preterm birth by 40% or greater in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an open-label randomised controlled trial in 57 hospital antenatal clinics in the UK and Europe. From 1 April 2015 to 14 February 2019, 2,228 women with a twin pregnancy underwent cervical length screening between 18 weeks 0 days and 20 weeks 6 days of gestation. In total, 503 women with cervical length ≤ 35 mm were randomly assigned to pessary in addition to standard care (n = 250, mean age 32.4 years, mean cervical length 29 mm, with pessary inserted in 230 women [92.0%]) or standard care alone (n = 253, mean age 32.7 years, mean cervical length 30 mm). The pessary was inserted before 21 completed weeks of gestation and removed at between 35 and 36 weeks or before birth if earlier. The primary obstetric outcome, spontaneous onset of labour and birth before 34 weeks 0 days of gestation, was present in 46/250 (18.4%) in the pessary group compared to 52/253 (20.6%) following standard care alone (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.55-1.38], p = 0.54). The primary neonatal outcome-a composite of any of stillbirth, neonatal death, periventricular leukomalacia, early respiratory morbidity, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis, or proven sepsis, from birth to 28 days after the expected date of delivery-was present in 67/500 infants (13.4%) in the pessary group compared to 76/506 (15.0%) following standard care alone (aOR 0.86 [95% CI 0.54-1.36], p = 0.50). The positive and negative likelihood ratios of a short cervix (≤35 mm) to predict preterm birth before 34 weeks were 2.14 and 0.83, respectively. A meta-analysis of data from existing publications (4 studies, 313 women) and from STOPPIT-2 indicated that a cervical pessary does not reduce preterm birth before 34 weeks in women with a short cervix (risk ratio 0.74 [95% CI 0.50-1.11], p = 0.15). No women died in either arm of the study; 4.4% of babies in the Arabin pessary group and 5.5% of babies in the standard treatment group died in utero or in the neonatal period (p = 0.53). Study limitations include lack of power to exclude a smaller than 40% reduction in preterm labour associated preterm birth, and to be conclusive about subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: These results led us to reject our hypothesis that the Arabin pessary would reduce the risk of the primary outcome by 40%. Smaller treatment effects cannot be ruled out. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN 02235181. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02235181.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model of preterm birth for women with preterm labour symptoms (the QUIDS study): A prospective cohort study and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Timely interventions in women presenting with preterm labour can substantially improve health outcomes for preterm babies. However, establishing such a diagnosis is very challenging, as signs and symptoms of preterm labour are common and can be nonspecific. We aimed to develop and externally validate a risk prediction model using concentration of vaginal fluid fetal fibronectin (quantitative fFN), in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and assessed its cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pregnant women included in the analyses were 22+0 to 34+6 weeks gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of quantitative fFN test. The risk prediction model was developed and internally validated in an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of 5 European prospective cohort studies (2009 to 2016; 1,783 women; mean age 29.7 years; median BMI 24.8 kg/m2; 67.6% White; 11.7% smokers; 51.8% nulliparous; 10.4% with multiple pregnancy; 139 [7.8%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The model was then externally validated in a prospective cohort study in 26 United Kingdom centres (2016 to 2018; 2,924 women; mean age 28.2 years; median BMI 25.4 kg/m2; 88.2% White; 21% smokers; 35.2% nulliparous; 3.5% with multiple pregnancy; 85 [2.9%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The developed risk prediction model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days included quantitative fFN, current smoking, not White ethnicity, nulliparity, and multiple pregnancy. After internal validation, the optimism adjusted area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.92), and the optimism adjusted Nagelkerke R2 was 35% (95% CI 33% to 37%). On external validation in the prospective UK cohort population, the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.94), and Nagelkerke R2 of 36% (95% CI: 34% to 38%). Recalibration of the model's intercept was required to ensure overall calibration-in-the-large. A calibration curve suggested close agreement between predicted and observed risks in the range of predictions 0% to 10%, but some miscalibration (underprediction) at higher risks (slope 1.24 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.26)). Despite any miscalibration, the net benefit of the model was higher than "treat all" or "treat none" strategies for thresholds up to about 15% risk. The economic analysis found the prognostic model was cost effective, compared to using qualitative fFN, at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. Study limitations include the limited number of participants who are not White and levels of missing data for certain variables in the development dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that a risk prediction model including vaginal fFN concentration and clinical risk factors showed promising performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test and has potential to inform management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. Further evaluation of the risk prediction model in clinical practice is required to determine whether the risk prediction model improves clinical outcomes if used in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). The study was registered with ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN 41598423) and NIHR Portfolio (CPMS: 31277).

External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data (IPD) from UK studies, to evaluate whether any of the models can accurately predict the condition when used within the UK healthcare setting. METHODS: IPD from 11 UK cohort studies (217,415 pregnant women) within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) pre-eclampsia network contributed to external validation of published prediction models, identified by systematic review. Cohorts that measured all predictor variables in at least one of the identified models and reported pre-eclampsia as an outcome were included for validation. We reported the model predictive performance as discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large), and net benefit. Performance measures were estimated separately in each available study and then, where possible, combined across studies in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 131 published models, 67 provided the full model equation and 24 could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Most of the models showed modest discrimination with summary C-statistics between 0.6 and 0.7. The calibration of the predicted compared to observed risk was generally poor for most models with observed calibration slopes less than 1, indicating that predictions were generally too extreme, although confidence intervals were wide. There was large between-study heterogeneity in each model's calibration-in-the-large, suggesting poor calibration of the predicted overall risk across populations. In a subset of models, the net benefit of using the models to inform clinical decisions appeared small and limited to probability thresholds between 5 and 7%. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluated models had modest predictive performance, with key limitations such as poor calibration (likely due to overfitting in the original development datasets), substantial heterogeneity, and small net benefit across settings. The evidence to support the use of these prediction models for pre-eclampsia in clinical decision-making is limited. Any models that we could not validate should be examined in terms of their predictive performance, net benefit, and heterogeneity across multiple UK settings before consideration for use in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID: CRD42015029349 .

Repurposing simvastatin as a therapy for preterm labor: evidence from preclinical models.

Preterm birth (PTB), the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality, urgently requires novel therapeutic agents. Spontaneous PTB, resulting from preterm labor, is commonly caused by intrauterine infection/inflammation. Statins are well-established, cholesterol-lowering drugs that can reduce inflammation and inhibit vascular smooth muscle contraction. We show that simvastatin reduced the incidence of PTB in a validated intrauterine LPS-induced PTB mouse model, decreased uterine proinflammatory mRNA concentrations (IL-6, Cxcl1, and Ccl2), and reduced serum IL-6 concentration. In human myometrial cells, simvastatin reduced proinflammatory mediator mRNA and protein expression (IL-6 and IL-8) and increased anti-inflammatory cytokine mRNA expression (IL-10 and IL-13). Critically, simvastatin inhibited myometrial cell contraction, basally and during inflammation, and reduced phosphorylated myosin light chain concentration. Supplementation with mevalonate and geranylgeranyl pyrophosphate, but not farnesyl pyrophosphate, abolished these anticontractile effects, indicating that the Rho/Rho-associated protein kinase pathway is critically involved. Thus, simvastatin reduces PTB incidence in mice, inhibits myometrial contractions, and exhibits key anti-inflammatory effects, providing a rationale for investigation into the repurposing of statins to treat preterm labor in women.-Boyle, A. K., Rinaldi, S. F., Rossi, A. G., Saunders, P. T. K., Norman, J. E. Repurposing simvastatin as a therapy for preterm labor: evidence from preclinical models.

Consequences of being overweight or obese during pregnancy on diabetes in the offspring: a record linkage study in Aberdeen, Scotland.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Maternal obesity in pregnancy is associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality rate in the offspring. We aimed to determine whether maternal obesity is also associated with increased incidence of type 2 and type 1 diabetes in the offspring, independently of maternal diabetes as a candidate mechanistic pathway. METHODS: Birth records of 118,201 children from 1950 to 2011 in the Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank were linked to Scottish Care Information-Diabetes, the national register for diagnosed diabetes in Scotland, to identify incident and prevalent type 1 and type 2 diabetes up to 1 January 2012. Maternal BMI was calculated from height and weight measured at the first antenatal visit. The effect of maternal obesity on offspring outcomes was tested using time-to-event analysis with Cox proportional hazards regression to compare outcomes in offspring of mothers in underweight, overweight or obese categories of BMI, compared with offspring of women with normal BMI. RESULTS: Offspring of obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) and overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2) mothers had an increased hazard of type 2 diabetes compared with mothers with normal BMI, after adjustment for gestation when weight was measured, maternal history of diabetes before pregnancy, maternal history of hypertension, age at delivery, parity, socioeconomic status, and sex of the offspring: HR 3.48 (95% CI 2.33, 5.06) and HR 1.39 (1.06, 1.83), respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Maternal obesity is associated with increased incidence of type 2 diabetes in the offspring. Evidence-based strategies that reduce obesity among women of reproductive age and that might reduce the incidence of diabetes in their offspring are urgently required.

Nitroglycerin for treatment of retained placenta: A randomised, placebo-controlled, multicentre, double-blind trial in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Retained placenta following vaginal delivery is a major cause of postpartum haemorrhage. Currently, the only effective treatments for a retained placenta are the surgical procedures of manual removal of placenta (MROP) and uterine curettage, which are not universally available, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of the trial was to determine whether sublingual nitroglycerin spray was clinically effective and cost-effective for medical treatment of retained placenta following vaginal delivery. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial was undertaken between October 2014 and July 2017 at 29 delivery units in the UK (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester, Newcastle, Preston, Warrington, Chesterfield, Crewe, Durham, West Middlesex, Aylesbury, Furness, Southampton, Bolton, Sunderland, Oxford, Nottingham [2 units], Burnley, Chertsey, Stockton-on-Tees, Middlesborough, Chester, Darlington, York, Reading, Milton Keynes, Telford, Frimley). In total, 1,107 women with retained placenta following vaginal delivery were recruited. The intervention was self-administered 2 puffs of sublingual nitroglycerin (800 µg; intervention, N = 543) or placebo spray (control, N = 564). The primary clinical outcome was the need for MROP, assessed at 15 minutes following administration of the intervention. Analysis was based on the intention-to-treat principle. The primary safety outcome was measured blood loss between study drug administration and transfer to the postnatal ward or other clinical area. The primary patient-sided outcomes were satisfaction with treatment and side-effect profile, assessed by questionnaires pre-discharge and 6 weeks post-delivery. Secondary clinical outcomes were measured at 5 and 15 minutes after study drug administration and prior to hospital discharge. There was no statistically significant or clinically meaningful difference in need for MROP by 15 minutes (primary clinical outcome, 505 [93.3%] for nitroglycerin versus 518 [92.0%] for placebo, odds ratio [OR] 1.01 [95% CI 0.98-1.04], p = 0.393) or blood loss (<500 ml: nitroglycerin, 238 [44.3%], versus placebo, 249 [44.5%]; 500 ml-1,000 ml: nitroglycerin, 180 [33.5%], versus placebo, 224 [40.0%]; >1,000 ml: nitroglycerin, 119 [22.2%], versus placebo, 87 [15.5%]; ordinal OR 1.14 [95% CI 0.88-1.48], p = 0.314) or satisfaction with treatment (nitroglycerin, 288 [75.4%], versus placebo, 303 [78.1%]; OR 0.87 [95% CI 0.62-1.22], p = 0.411) or health service costs (mean difference [£] 55.3 [95% CI -199.20 to 309.79]). Palpitations following drug administration were reported more often in the nitroglycerin group (36 [9.8%] versus 15 [4.0%], OR 2.60 [95% CI 1.40-4.84], p = 0.003). There were 52 serious adverse events during the trial, with no statistically significant difference in likelihood between groups (nitroglycerin, 27 [5.0%], versus placebo, 26 [4.6%]; OR 1.13 [95% CI 0.54-2.38], p = 0.747). The main limitation of our study was the low return rate for the 6-week postnatal questionnaire. There were, however, no differences in questionnaire return rates between study groups or between women who did and did not have MROP, with the patient-reported use of outpatient and primary care services at 6 weeks accounting for only a small proportion (approximately 5%) of overall health service costs. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that nitroglycerin is neither clinically effective nor cost-effective as a medical treatment for retained placenta, and has increased side effects, suggesting it should not be used. Further research is required to identify an effective medical treatment for retained placenta to reduce the morbidity caused by this condition, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where surgical management is not available. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN.com ISRCTN88609453 ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02085213.

Analgesic efficacy and safety of morphine in the Procedural Pain in Premature Infants (Poppi) study: randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Infant pain has immediate and long-term effects but is undertreated because of a paucity of evidence-based analgesics. Although morphine is often used to sedate ventilated infants, its analgesic efficacy is unclear. We aimed to establish whether oral morphine could provide effective and safe analgesia in non-ventilated premature infants for acute procedural pain. METHODS: In this single-centre masked trial, 31 infants at the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK, were randomly allocated using a web-based facility with a minimisation algorithm to either 100 µg/kg oral morphine sulphate or placebo 1 h before a clinically required heel lance and retinopathy of prematurity screening examination, on the same occasion. Eligible infants were born prematurely at less than 32 weeks' gestation or with a birthweight lower than 1501 g and had a gestational age of 34-42 weeks at the time of the study. The co-primary outcome measures were the Premature Infant Pain Profile-Revised (PIPP-R) score after retinopathy of prematurity screening and the magnitude of noxious-evoked brain activity after heel lancing. Secondary outcome measures assessed physiological stability and safety. This trial is registered with the European Clinical Trials Database (number 2014-003237-25). FINDINGS: Between Oct 30, 2016, and Nov 17, 2017, 15 infants were randomly allocated to morphine and 16 to placebo; one infant assigned placebo was withdrawn from the study before monitoring began. The predefined stopping boundary was crossed, and trial recruitment stopped because of profound respiratory adverse effects of morphine without suggestion of analgesic efficacy. None of the co-primary outcome measures differed significantly between groups. PIPP-R score after retinopathy of prematurity screening was mean 11·1 (SD 3·2) with morphine and 10·5 (3·4) with placebo (mean difference 0·5, 95% CI -2·0 to 3·0; p=0·66). Noxious-evoked brain activity after heel lancing was median 0·99 (IQR 0·40-1·56) with morphine and 0·75 (0·33-1·22) with placebo (median difference 0·25, 95% CI -0·16 to 0·80; p=0·25). INTERPRETATION: Administration of oral morphine (100 µg/kg) to non-ventilated premature infants has the potential for harm without analgesic efficacy. We do not recommend oral morphine for retinopathy of prematurity screening and strongly advise caution if considering its use for other acute painful procedures in non-ventilated premature infants. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and National Institute for Health Research.

Awareness of fetal movements and care package to reduce fetal mortality (AFFIRM): a stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: 2·6 million pregnancies were estimated to have ended in stillbirth in 2015. The aim of the AFFIRM study was to test the hypothesis that introduction of a reduced fetal movement (RFM), care package for pregnant women and clinicians that increased women's awareness of the need for prompt reporting of RFM and that standardised management, including timely delivery, would alter the incidence of stillbirth. METHODS: This stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial was done in the UK and Ireland. Participating maternity hospitals were grouped and randomised, using a computer-generated allocation scheme, to one of nine intervention implementation dates (at 3 month intervals). This date was concealed from clusters and the trial team until 3 months before the implementation date. Each participating hospital had three observation periods: a control period from Jan 1, 2014, until randomised date of intervention initiation; a washout period from the implementation date and for 2 months; and the intervention period from the end of the washout period until Dec 31, 2016. Treatment allocation was not concealed from participating women and caregivers. Data were derived from observational maternity data. The primary outcome was incidence of stillbirth. The primary analysis was done according to the intention-to-treat principle, with births analysed according to whether they took place during the control or intervention periods, irrespective of whether the intervention had been implemented as planned. This study is registered with www.ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01777022. FINDINGS: 37 hospitals were enrolled in the study. Four hospitals declined participation, and 33 hospitals were randomly assigned to an intervention implementation date. Between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec, 31, 2016, data were collected from 409 175 pregnancies (157 692 deliveries during the control period, 23 623 deliveries in the washout period, and 227 860 deliveries in the intervention period). The incidence of stillbirth was 4·40 per 1000 births during the control period and 4·06 per 1000 births in the intervention period (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·75-1·07; p=0·23). INTERPRETATION: The RFM care package did not reduce the risk of stillbirths. The benefits of a policy that promotes awareness of RFM remains unproven. FUNDING: Chief Scientist Office, Scottish Government (CZH/4/882), Tommy's Centre for Maternal and Fetal Health, Sands.

Geographical differences in preterm delivery rates in Sweden: A population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preterm delivery is a major global public health challenge. The objective of this study was to determine how preterm delivery rates differ in a country with a very high human development index and to explore rural vs urban environmental and socioeconomic factors that may be responsible for this variation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based study was performed using data from the Swedish Medical Birth Register from 1998 to 2013. Sweden was chosen as a model because of its validated, routinely collected data and availability of individual social data. The total population comprised 1 335 802 singleton births. A multiple linear regression was used to adjust gestational age for known risk factors (maternal smoking, ethnicity, maternal education, maternal age, height, fetal sex, maternal diabetes, maternal hypertension, and parity). A second and a third model were subsequently fitted allowing separate intercepts for each municipality (as fixed or random effects). Adjusted gestational ages were converted to preterm delivery rates and mapped onto maternal residential municipalities. Additionally, the effects of six rural vs urban environmental and socioeconomic factors on gestational age were tested using a simple weighted linear regression. RESULTS: The study population preterm delivery rate was 4.12%. Marked differences from the overall preterm delivery rate were observed (rate estimates ranged from 1.73% to 6.31%). The statistical significance of this heterogeneity across municipalities was confirmed by a chi-squared test (P < 0.001). Around 20% of the gestational age variance explained by the full model (after adjustment for known variables described above) could be attributed to municipality-level effects. In addition, gestational age was found to be longer in areas with a higher fraction of built-upon land and other urban features. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for known risk factors, large geographical differences in rates of preterm delivery remain. Additional analyses to look at the effect of environmental and socioeconomic factors on gestational age found an increased gestational age in urban areas. Future research strategies could focus on investigating the urbanity effect to try to explain preterm delivery variation across countries with a very high human development index.

Long-term risks and benefits associated with cesarean delivery for mother, baby, and subsequent pregnancies: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean birth rates continue to rise worldwide with recent (2016) reported rates of 24.5% in Western Europe, 32% in North America, and 41% in South America. The objective of this systematic review is to describe the long-term risks and benefits of cesarean delivery for mother, baby, and subsequent pregnancies. The primary maternal outcome was pelvic floor dysfunction, the primary baby outcome was asthma, and the primary subsequent pregnancy outcome was perinatal death. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline, Embase, Cochrane, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases were systematically searched for published studies in human subjects (last search 25 May 2017), supplemented by manual searches. Included studies were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and large (more than 1,000 participants) prospective cohort studies with greater than or equal to one-year follow-up comparing outcomes of women delivering by cesarean delivery and by vaginal delivery. Two assessors screened 30,327 abstracts. Studies were graded for risk of bias by two assessors using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guideline Network (SIGN) Methodology Checklist and the Risk of Bias Assessment tool for Non-Randomized Studies. Results were pooled in fixed effects meta-analyses or in random effects models when significant heterogeneity was present (I2 ≥ 40%). One RCT and 79 cohort studies (all from high income countries) were included, involving 29,928,274 participants. Compared to vaginal delivery, cesarean delivery was associated with decreased risk of urinary incontinence, odds ratio (OR) 0.56 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.66; n = 58,900; 8 studies) and pelvic organ prolapse (OR 0.29, 0.17 to 0.51; n = 39,208; 2 studies). Children delivered by cesarean delivery had increased risk of asthma up to the age of 12 years (OR 1.21, 1.11 to 1.32; n = 887,960; 13 studies) and obesity up to the age of 5 years (OR 1.59, 1.33 to 1.90; n = 64,113; 6 studies). Pregnancy after cesarean delivery was associated with increased risk of miscarriage (OR 1.17, 1.03 to 1.32; n = 151,412; 4 studies) and stillbirth (OR 1.27, 1.15 to 1.40; n = 703,562; 8 studies), but not perinatal mortality (OR 1.11, 0.89 to 1.39; n = 91,429; 2 studies). Pregnancy following cesarean delivery was associated with increased risk of placenta previa (OR 1.74, 1.62 to 1.87; n = 7,101,692; 10 studies), placenta accreta (OR 2.95, 1.32 to 6.60; n = 705,108; 3 studies), and placental abruption (OR 1.38, 1.27 to 1.49; n = 5,667,160; 6 studies). This is a comprehensive review adhering to a registered protocol, and guidelines for the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology were followed, but it is based on predominantly observational data, and in some meta-analyses, between-study heterogeneity is high; therefore, causation cannot be inferred and the results should be interpreted with caution. CONCLUSIONS: When compared with vaginal delivery, cesarean delivery is associated with a reduced rate of urinary incontinence and pelvic organ prolapse, but this should be weighed against the association with increased risks for fertility, future pregnancy, and long-term childhood outcomes. This information could be valuable in counselling women on mode of delivery.

Intergenerational Transmission of Birth Weight Across 3 Generations.

While previous studies have shown intergenerational transmission of birth weight from mother to child, whether the continuity persists across 3 generations has rarely been assessed. We used the Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank (United Kingdom) to examine the intergenerational correlations of birth weight, birth weight adjusted for gestational age and sex, and small- and large-for-gestational-age births across 3 generations among 1,457 grandmother-mother-child triads. All participants were born between 1950 and 2015. The intergenerational transmission was examined with linear regression analyses. We found that grandmaternal birth weight was associated with grandchild birth weight, independently of prenatal and sociodemographic covariates and maternal birth weight (B = 0.12 standard deviation units, 95% confidence interval: 0.07, 0.18). Similar intergenerational continuity was found for birth weight adjusted for sex and gestational age as well as for small-for-gestational-age births. In conclusion, birth weight and fetal growth showed intergenerational continuity across 3 generations. This supports the hypothesis that the developmental origins of birth weight and hence later health and disease are already present in earlier generations.