Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission.

Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model for a hypothetical acute viral infection and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.

Pathogen interactions, population cycles, and phase shifts.

Interspecific pathogen interactions can profoundly affect pathogen population dynamics and the efficacy of control strategies. However, many pathogens exhibit cyclic abundance patterns (e.g., seasonality), and temporal asynchrony between interacting pathogens could reduce the impact of those interactions. Here we use an extension of our previously published model to investigate the effects of cycles on pathogen interaction. We demonstrate that host immune memory can maintain the impact of an interaction, even when the effector pathogen abundance is low or the pathogen is absent. Paradoxically, immune memory can result in pathogens interacting more strongly when temporally out of phase. We find that interactions between species can result in changes to the temporal pattern of the affected species. We further demonstrate that this may be observed in a natural host-pathogen system. Given the continuing debate regarding the relevance of pathogen interactions in natural systems and increasing concern about treatment strategies for coinfections, both the discovery of a shift in cycle in empirical data and the mechanism by which we identified it are important. Finally, because the model structure used here is analogous to models of a simple predator-prey system, we also consider the consequences of these findings in the context of that system.

Correction: Predicting the Potential for Natural Recovery of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) Populations following the Introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris Malmberg, 1957 (Monogenea).

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169168.].

Bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) in British farmland wildlife: the importance to agriculture.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease of cattle and an emerging infectious disease of humans. Cow- and badger-based control strategies have failed to eradicate bTB from the British cattle herd, and the incidence is rising by about 18%per year. The annual cost to taxpayers in Britain is currently 74 million UK pounds. Research has focused on the badger as a potential bTB reservoir, with little attention being paid to other mammals common on farmland. We have conducted a systematic survey of wild mammals (n=4393 individuals) present on dairy farms to explore the role of species other than badgers in the epidemiology of bTB. Cultures were prepared from 10397 samples (primarily faeces, urine and tracheal aspirates). One of the 1307 bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) live-sampled, and three of the 43 badgers (Meles meles), yielded positive isolates of Mycobacterium bovis. This is the first time the bacterium has been isolated from the bank vole. The strain type was the same as that found in cattle and badgers on the same farm. However, our work indicates that the mean prevalence of infectious individuals among common farmland wildlife is extremely low (the upper 95% confidence interval is < or =2.0 for all of the abundant species). Mathematical models illustrate that it is highly unlikely the disease could be maintained at such low levels. Our results suggest that these animals are relatively unimportant as reservoirs of bTB, having insufficient within-species (or within-group) transmission to sustain the infection, though occasional spill-overs from cattle or badgers may occur.

Predicting the Potential for Natural Recovery of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) Populations following the Introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris Malmberg, 1957 (Monogenea).

Gyrodactylus salaris (Monogenea, Platyhelminthes) is a notifiable freshwater pathogen responsible for causing catastrophic damage to wild Atlantic salmon stocks, most notably in Norway. In some strains of Baltic salmon (e.g., from the river Neva) however, the impact is greatly reduced due to some form of innate resistance that regulates parasite numbers, resulting in fewer host mortalities. Gyrodactylus salaris is known from 17 European states; its status in a further 35 states remains unknown; the UK, the Republic of Ireland and certain watersheds in Finland are free of the parasite. Thus, the parasite poses a serious threat if it emerges in Atlantic salmon rearing regions throughout Europe. At present, infections are generally controlled via extreme measures such as the treatment of entire river catchments with the biocide rotenone, in order to remove all hosts, before restocking with the original genetic stock. The use of rotenone in this way in EU countries is unlikely as it would be in contravention of the Water Framework Directive. Not only are such treatments economically and environmentally costly, they also eradicate the potential for any host/parasite evolutionary process to occur. Based on previous studies, UK salmon stocks have been shown to be highly susceptible to infection, analogous to Norwegian stocks. The present study investigates the impact of a G. salaris outbreak within a naïve salmon population in order to determine long-term consequences of infection and the likelihood of coexistence. Simulation of the salmon/ G. salaris system was carried out via a deterministic mathematical modelling approach to examine the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions. Results indicated that in order for highly susceptible Atlantic strains to evolve a resistance, both a moderate-strong deceleratingly costly trade-off on birth rate and a lower overall cost of the immune response are required. The present study provides insights into the potential long term impact of G. salaris if introduced into G. salaris-free territories and suggests that in the absence of external controls salmon populations are likely to recover to high densities nearing 90% of that observed pre-infection.

Reproductive trade-offs may moderate the impact of Gyrodactylus salaris in warmer climates.

Gyrodactylus salaris is a notifiable freshwater ectoparasite of salmonids. Its primary host is Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), upon which infections can cause death, and have led to massive declines in salmon numbers in Norway, where the parasite is widespread. Different strains of S. salar vary in their susceptibility, with Atlantic strains (such as those found in Norway) exhibiting no resistance to the parasite, and Baltic strains demonstrating an innate resistance sufficient to regulate parasite numbers on the host causing it to either die out or persist at a low level. In this study, Leslie matrix and compartmental models were used to generate data that demonstrated the population growth of G. salaris on an individual host is dependent on the total number of offspring per parasite, its longevity and the timing of its births. The data demonstrated that the key factor determining the rate of G. salaris population growth is the time at which the parasite first gives birth, with rapid birth rate giving rise to large population size. Furthermore, it was shown that though the parasite can give birth up to four times, only two births are required for the population to persist as long as the first birth occurs before a parasite is three days old. As temperature is known to influence the timing of the parasite's first birth, greater impact may be predicted if introduced to countries with warmer climates than Norway, such as the UK and Ireland which are currently recognised to be free of G. salaris. However, the outputs from the models developed in this study suggest that temperature induced trade-offs between the total number of offspring the parasite gives birth to and the first birth timing may prevent increased population growth rates over those observed in Norway.