Predictors of hospital readmission within 30 days after surgery for thoracolumbar fractures: A mixed approach.

BACKGROUND: Readmission followed by surgery to treat spinal fractures has a substantial impact on patient care costs and reflects a hospital's quality standards. This article analyzes the factors associated with hospital readmission followed by surgery to treat spinal fractures. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study with time-series analysis. For prediction analysis, we used Cox proportional hazards and machine-learning models, using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, Inpatient Database from Florida (USA). RESULTS: The sample comprised 215,999 patients, 8.8% of whom were readmitted within 30 days. The factors associated with a risk of readmission were male sex (1.1 [95% confidence interval 1.06-1.13]) and >60 years of age (1.74 [95% CI: 1.69-1.8]). Surgeons with a higher annual patient volume presented a lower risk of readmission (0.61 [95% CI: 0.59-0.63]) and hospitals with an annual volume >393 presented a lower risk (0.92 [95% CI: 0.89-0.95]). CONCLUSION: Surgical procedures and other selected predictors and machine-learning models can be used to reduce 30-day readmissions after spinal surgery. Identification of patients at higher risk for readmission and complications is the first step to reducing unplanned readmissions.

Time-driven activity-based costing as a strategy to increase efficiency: An analyses of interventional coronary procedures.

Monitoring the costs is one of the key components underlying value-based health care. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-saving opportunities of interventional coronary procedures (ICPs). Data from 90 patients submitted to elective ICP were evaluated in five Brazilian hospitals. Time-driven activity-based costing, that guides the cost estimates using the time consumed and the capacity cost rates per resource as the data input, was used to assess costs and the time spent over the care pathway. Descriptive cost analyses were followed by a labour cost-saving estimate potentially achieved by the redesign of the ICP pathway. The mean cost per patient varied from $807 to $2639. The length of the procedure phase per patient was similar among the hospitals, while the post-procedure phase presented the highest variation in length. The highest direct cost saving opportunities are concentrated in the procedure phase. By comparing the benchmark service with the most expensive one, it was estimated that redesigning physician practices could decrease 51% of the procedure cost. This application is pioneered in Brazil and demonstrates how detailed cost information can contribute to driving health care management to value by identifying cost-saving opportunities.

Intradermal methylene blue administration on the progression of burn injuries.

OBJECTIVE: A burn injury has two defined areas: central necrosis and an adjacent area of ischaemia, which may or may not progress to necrosis. The concentration of nitric oxide (NO) increases after burn injury and may originate from potent oxidising agents. Methylene blue (MB) may act as an antioxidant and is supposed to reduce burn progression. This investigation was carried out to evaluate the effects of intradermal MB on necrosis progression in burns. METHODS: Full-thickness burn injuries were performed by applying a heated metal comb on the shaved back of male Wistar rats. The animals were divided into three groups: Control (C, n=7); MB (2mg/kg) one hour after burn injury (MB1h, n=11); and MB (2mg/kg) six hours after burn injury (MB6h, n=8). After seven days the lesions were photographed for visual assessment of burn necrosis; full-thickness cuts of lesions were dyed with Masson and Giemsa for microscopic histopathology; and tissue fragments of unburned interspaces were processed for chemiluminescence with nitrite/nitrate (NOX) and malondialdehyde (MDA) as oxidative stress markers. RESULTS: No statistically significant differences between groups were observed during visual analysis and NOX dosage. However, in microscopic analysis, the MB1h and MB6h groups showed smaller areas of necrosis, less inflammatory infiltration, and a more significant extension of interspaces. Furthermore, the dosage of MDA revealed that the MB1h group showed lower values when compared with the control group (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study provided good evidence that MB intradermal injection can reduce necrosis progression in ischaemic perilesional areas and suggests an alternative to treating burns.

Open versus minimally invasive percutaneous surgery for surgical treatment of thoracolumbar spine fractures- a multicenter randomized controlled trial: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Thoracolumbar fractures are most frequent along the spine, and surgical treatment is indicated for unstable fractures. Percutaneous minimally invasive surgery was introduced to reduce the pain associated with the open posterior approach and reduce the morbidity of the procedure by avoiding damage and dissection of the paravertebral muscles. The goal of this study is to compare the surgical treatment of fractures of the thoracolumbar spine treated by the conventional open approach and the percutaneous minimally invasive approach using similar types of pedicle spine fixation systems. METHODS/DESIGNS: This study is designed as a multi-center, randomized controlled trial of patients aged 18-65 years who are scheduled to undergo surgical posterior fixation. Treatment by the conventional open approach or percutaneous minimally invasive approach will be randomly assigned. The primary outcome measure is postoperative pain, which will be measured using the visual analogue scale (VAS). The secondary outcome parameters are intraoperative bleeding, postoperative drainage, surgery time, length of hospital stay, SF-36, EQ-5D-5 l, HADS, pain medication, deambulation after surgery, intraoperative fluoroscopy time, vertebral segment kyphosis, fracture vertebral body height, compression of the vertebral canal, accuracy of the pedicle screws, and breakage or release of the implants. Patient will be followed up for 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months postoperatively and evaluated according to the outcomes using clinical and radiological examinations, plain radiographs and computed tomografy (CT). DISCUSSION: Surgical treatment of thoracolumbar fractures by the open or percutaneous minimally invasive approach will be compared in a multicenter randomized study using similar types of fixation systems, and the results will be evaluated according to clinical and radiological parameters at 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months of follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov approval number: 1.933.631, code: NCT03316703 in may 2017.

Evaluation of the Impact of Physical Exercise in Reducing Pain in Women Undergoing Mammography: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of exercise prior to mammography in reducing perceived postexamination pain. Methods: An open, randomized, and controlled clinical trial was conducted. The interventions consisted of warm-up and stretching exercises of the upper or lower limbs of women who consulted at Barretos Cancer Hospital, São Paulo State, Brazil. The women were divided into three groups based on the intervention and its location: upper limbs (group 1), lower limbs (group 2), and no intervention (group 0). Quantitative variables were compared between and within groups using analysis of variance and Student's t test with a 5% significance level. Relative risk (RR) calculations and their derived measurements such as efficacy, number needed to treat (NNT), absolute risk reduction (ARR), and relative risk reduction (RRR) were taken. This study was approved by the Institutional Committee of Research Ethics. Results: A total of 198 (66 per group) women were evaluated. Sociodemographic data and level of physical activity were not found to be associated with perception of pain after mammogram. However, group 1 had the greatest reduction in postprocedure perception of pain compared with groups 2 (relative risk [RR] = 3.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.12-5.51, P < 0.05) and 0 (RR = 1.92 (95% CI = 1.08-3.42, P < 0.05). Conclusions: Pre-examination upper limb exercises were most effective in reducing the perception and sensation of pain. However, women who performed lower limb exercises also had a decreased perception of pain compared with the control group.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of XELOX versus XELOX plus bevacizumab for metastatic colorectal cancer in a public hospital school.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic colorectal cancer imposes a substantial burden on patients and society. Over the last years, progresses in the treatment have been made especially due to the introduction of monoclonal antibodies, such as bevacizumab which, on the other hand, has considerably increased the costs of treatment. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of bevacizumab plus XELOX in comparison with XELOX alone in metastatic colorectal cancer in first-line therapy, from the perspective of a public hospital school in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cost-effectiveness analysis performed by a decision tree and Markov models. Costs were expressed in local currency and outcomes were expressed in months of life gained. The model was constructed using the TreeAge Pro 2013® software. RESULTS: The incremental difference in years of life gained was 2.25 months, with an extra cost of 47,833.57 BRL, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness of 21,231.43 BRL per month of life gained. CONCLUSIONS: Although the XELOX plus bevacizumab regimen is a more expensive and more effective treatment than XELOX, it does not fit the reimbursement values fixed by the public healthcare system in Brazil.

Diagnosis and Prevalence of Prominent Lobules in Otoplasty: Analysis of 120 Patients with Prominent Ears.

BACKGROUND: The prominence of the ear lobule is considered an anomaly of secondary importance and receives correspondingly less attention in literature. We reviewed a case series of otoplasty patients and analyzed the prevalence of lobule prominence. METHODS: Records of otoplasties between 2007 and 2013 were reviewed. Inclusion criteria were: (1) primary otoplasties; (2) prominence of both ears; and (3) otoplasties conducted by the main author. Patients were divided into two groups: (1) A general group (GG) containing all the patients, and (2) a lobule correction group (LG)-a subgroup of GG containing only the patients who needed lobule correction. RESULTS: From a total of 291 patients, 120 patients were included in GG and 27 patients in LG. There was no statistical difference between groups GG and LG in terms of age and gender. Preoperative diagnosis of lobule prominence was correctly established in 14 patients; 13 patients were diagnosed during surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Lobule prominence should not be underestimated since its diagnosis may be missed in the preoperative period-nearly 50 % in our case. Also its prevalence (22.5 %) is not as infrequent as some may think. Knowledge of lobule correction techniques before surgery is important to avoid less than optimal results in otoplasty. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE V: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

Vagus nerve stimulation in pediatric patients: Is it really worthwhile?

Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) seems to be effective in the management of selected cases of pharmacoresistant epilepsy in children. This was a case-control prospective study of children with refractory epilepsy submitted to vagal nerve stimulator implantation and a control group with epilepsy treated with antiepileptic drugs. Patients under 18years of age who underwent clinical or surgical treatment because of pharmacoresistant epilepsy from January 2009 to January 2012 were followed and compared with an age-matched control group at final evaluation. Statistically significant differences were observed considering age at epilepsy onset (VNS group - 1.33±1.45years; controls - 3.23±3.11; p=0.0001), abnormal findings in neurological examination (p=0.01), history of previous ineffective epilepsy surgery (p=0.03), and baseline seizure frequency (p=0.0001). At long-term follow-up, 55.4% of the patients in the VNS group had at least 50% reduction of seizure frequency, with 11.1% of the patients presenting 95% reduction on seizure frequency. Also, a decrease in traumas and hospitalization due to seizures and a subjective improvement in mood and alertness were observed. The control group did not show a significant modification in seizure frequency during the study. In this series, VNS patients evolved with a statistically significant reduction of the number of seizures, a decreased morbidity of the seizures, and the number of days in inpatient care. In accordance with the current literature, VNS has been proven to be an effective alternative in the treatment of pediatric patients with drug-resistant epilepsy.

Effectiveness of heat and moisture exchangers in preventing ventilator-associated pneumonia in critically ill patients: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients may acquire ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) by aspirating the condensate that originates in the ventilator circuit upon use of a conventional humidifier. The bacteria that colonize the patients themselves can proliferate in the condensate and then return to the airways and lungs when the patient aspirates this contaminated material. Therefore, the use of HME might contribute to preventing pneumonia and lowering the VAP incidence. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the use of HME impacts the probability of VAP occurrence in critically ill patients. METHODS: On the basis of the acronym "PICO" (Patient, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome), the question that guided this review was "Do critically ill patients under invasive mechanical ventilation present lower VAP incidence when they use HME as compared with HH?". Two of the authors of this review searched the databases PUBMED/Medline, The Cochrane Library, and Latin-American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences, LILACS independently; they used the following keywords: "heat and moisture exchanger", AND "heated humidifier", AND "ventilator-associated pneumonia prevention". This review included papers in the English language published from January 1990 to December 2012. RESULTS: This review included ten studies. Comparison between the use of HME and HH did not reveal any differences in terms of VAP occurrence (OR = 0.998; 95% CI: 0.778-1.281). Together, the ten studies corresponded to a total sample of 1077 and 953 patients in the HME and HH groups, respectively; heterogeneity among the investigations was low (I(2) < 50%). Information about the outcome mortality was available in only eight of the ten studies. The use of HME and HH did not afford different results in terms of mortality (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.864-1.376). The total sample size was 884 and 762 patients, respectively. Heterogeneity among the studies was low (I(2) = 0.0%). CONCLUSION: Current meta-analysis was not sufficient to definitely exclude an associate between heat and moisture exchangers and VAP. Despite the methodological limitations found in selected clinical trials, the current meta-analysis suggests that HME does not decrease VAP incidence or mortality in critically ill patients.

Factors associated with community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalised children and adolescents aged 6 months to 13 years old.

UNLABELLED: According to the World Health Organisation, community-acquired pneumonia is the main cause of paediatric death, accounting for 20 % of deaths in children younger than 5 years old, and 90 % of these deaths occur in non-industrialised countries. This study has as objective to evaluate the influence of socio-economic, environmental and breastfeeding factors on the occurrence of pneumonia. An unmatched case-control study was conducted in children aged 6 months to 13 years old at a children's hospital in Brazil. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression was performed to determine the variables used to predict pneumonia. A total of 252 children were selected. In the adjusted (by age) multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with community-acquired pneumonia: (a) protective factors: breastfeeding >3 months, absence of other unrelated comorbidities, non-smoking mother, being the only child, child's age >5 years and mother's age >19 years old; (b) risk factors: maternal education <8 years and child's birth order [≥second]. In the multivariate analysis, considering only children from 6 months to 5 years old, the following variables were associated with community-acquired pneumonia: (a) protective factors: breastfeeding >3 months, non-smoking mother and no smokers in the child's bedroom; (b) risk factors: maternal education <8 years and prenatal complications. CONCLUSION: These findings contribute favourably to effectively minimising the risk factors related to the disease process and natural history of community-acquired pneumonia.

Effect of Medication Therapy Management by Pharmaceutical Care on Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk in Hypertension: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression.

Medication therapy management by pharmaceutical care (MTM-PC) has been shown to improve the effectiveness of antihypertensive treatments. The aim was to answer the question: what are the MTM-PC models and their impact on hypertensive patients' outcomes? This is a systematic review with meta-analysis. The search strategies were run on 27 September 2022 in the following databases: PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, LILACs, Central Cochrane Library, Web of Science; and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts. The quality and bias risk was assessed by the Downs and Black instrument. Forty-one studies met the eligibility criteria and were included, Kappa = 0.86; 95% CI, 0.66-1.0; (p < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies (65.9%) had MTM-PC models outlined by the clinical team, showing as characteristics the mean of 10.0 ± 10.7 months of follow-up of hypertensive patients, with 7.7 ± 4.9 consultations. Instruments to assess the quality of life measured the enhancement by 13.4 ± 10.7% (p = 0.047). The findings of the meta-analysis show a mean reduction of -7.71 (95% CI, -10.93 to -4.48) and -3.66 (95% CI, -5.51 to -1.80), (p < 0.001) in mmHg systolic and diastolic pressures, respectively. Cardiovascular relative risk (RR) over ten years was 0.561 (95% CI, 0.422 to 0.742) and RR = 0.570 (95% CI, 0.431 to 0.750), considering homogeneous studies, I² = 0%. This study shows the prevalence of MTM-PC models outlined by the clinical team, in which there are differences according to the models in reducing blood pressure and cardiovascular risk over ten years with the improvement in quality of life.

Comparative cohort analysis of pressure ulcer/injury in intensive care unit patients before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 has emerged as a global pandemic leading to an increase in hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions worldwide. Due to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), many patients require prone positioning, which is associated with increased pressure ulcer/injury (PU/PI) incidence. COVID-19 pathophysiology may favor the occurrence of PU/PI due to hypoxemia, inflammatory status, and vasculopathy. This study aimed to compare the incidence of PU/PI in ICU patients before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a university hospital in Brazil. Data from the medical charts of every adult patient admitted to ICU from March to July 2019 and the same period in 2020 were collected. The group from 2019 included 408 patients admitted due to multiple causes, and the group from 2020 included 229 patients admitted due to COVID-19 infection. The incidence of PU/PI was significantly higher in patients admitted in 2020 compared to 2019 (62,5 vs. 33,8%, respectively). Also, PU/PI location and severity have been different between groups, with the patients with COVID-19 (2020 group) more exposed to stage 3, 4, and non-stageable lesions, as well as more PU/PI on face skin and other less common locations. In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a higher PU/PI incidence. ICU patients were older during the pandemic, had higher body mass index and comorbidities, and needed more invasive medical devices and pronation. The occurrence of PU/PI was also associated with prolonged hospitalization and mortality.

COSTS ANALYSIS OF SPINAL COLUMN METASTASES SURGICAL TREATMENT.

Introduction: End-of-life cancer treatment is associated with substantial healthcare costs. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the surgical treatment cost of spinal metastasis and epidural compression patients undergoing surgical treatment. Methods: A retrospective cost analysis of 81 patients with spinal metastasis and epidural compression undergoing surgical treatment. Cost evaluation was defined in the following categories: medications, laboratory and imaging tests, nursery, recovery room, intensive care unit, surgical procedure, and consigned material. The cost of pain improvement, functional activity, and survival was also evaluated. Results: The total cost of surgical treatment for 81 patients was $3,604,334.26, and the average value for each patient was $44,497.95. The highest costs were related to implants (41.1%), followed by hospitalization (27.3%) and surgical procedure (19.7%). Conclusion: The cost of surgical treatment for spinal metastases is one of the most expensive bone complications in cancer patients. The cost of treatment related to outcomes showed differences according to the outcome analyzed. Hospital stay, tests, drugs, and intensive care play an important role in some of the costs related to the specific outcome. Level of Evidence II, Retrospective Study .

Introdução: O tratamento do câncer em fim de vida está associado a custos substanciais em saúde. Objetivo: O objetivo do estudo foi analisar o custo do tratamento cirúrgico de pacientes com metástase espinhal e compressão peridural submetidos ao tratamento cirúrgico. Métodos: Uma análise retrospectiva de custos de 81 pacientes com metástase espinhal e compressão peridural submetidos a tratamento cirúrgico. A avaliação de custos foi definida nas seguintes categorias: medicamentos, exames laboratoriais e de imagem, enfermaria, sala de recuperação, unidade de terapia intensiva, procedimento cirúrgico e material consignado. O custo relacionado à melhora da dor, atividade funcional e sobrevida também foi avaliado. Resultados: O custo total do tratamento cirúrgico de 81 pacientes foi de R $ 3.604.334,26 e o valor médio de cada paciente foi de R $ 44.497,95. Os maiores gastos foram relacionados com implantes (41,1%), seguidos de internação (27,3%) e procedimento cirúrgico (19,7%). Conclusão: O custo do tratamento cirúrgico para metástases espinhais é um dos mais caros entre as complicações ósseas em pacientes com câncer. O custo do tratamento relacionado aos desfechos apresentou diferença de acordo com o desfecho analisado e a permanência hospitalar, exames, medicamentos e terapia intensiva tem papel importante em alguns dos custos relacionados ao desfecho específico. Nível de Evidência II, Estudo retrospectivo .

Moving the Brazilian ischaemic stroke pathway to a value-based care: introduction of a risk-adjusted cost estimate model for stroke treatment.

The unsustainable increases in healthcare expenses and waste have motivated the migration of reimbursement strategies from volume to value. Value-based healthcare requires detailed comprehension of cost information at the patient level. This study introduces a clinical risk- and outcome-adjusted cost estimate model for stroke care sustained on time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC). In a cohort and multicentre study, a TDABC tool was developed to evaluate the costs per stroke patient, allowing us to identify and describe differences in cost by clinical risk at hospital arrival, treatment strategies and modified Rankin Score (mRS) at discharge. The clinical risk was confirmed by multivariate analysis and considered patients' National Institute for Health Stroke Scale and age. Descriptive cost analyses were conducted, followed by univariate and multivariate models to evaluate the risk levels, therapies and mRS stratification effect in costs. Then, the risk-adjusted cost estimate model for ischaemic stroke treatment was introduced. All the hospitals collected routine prospective data from consecutive patients admitted with ischaemic stroke diagnosis confirmed. A total of 822 patients were included. The median cost was I$2210 (interquartile range: I$1163-4504). Fifty percent of the patients registered a favourable outcome mRS (0-2), costing less at all risk levels, while patients with the worst mRS (5-6) registered higher costs. Those undergoing mechanical thrombectomy had an incremental cost for all three risk levels, but this difference was lower for high-risk patients. Estimated costs were compared to observed costs per risk group, and there were no significant differences in most groups, validating the risk and outcome-adjusted cost estimate model. By introducing a risk-adjusted cost estimate model, this study elucidates how healthcare delivery systems can generate local cost information to support value-based reimbursement strategies employing the data collection instruments and analysis developed in this study.

Pharmacoeconomic Analysis of Sitagliptin/Metformin for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness and cost utility of sitagliptin/metformin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus compared to those of glibenclamide/metformin in a semiprivate hospital and to compare the cost-effectiveness and cost utility of sitagliptin/metformin in a semiprivate hospital to those in the public health system (PHS) of Ecuador in 2019. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness study considering the probability of cardiovascular death as the outcome and quality-adjusted life-year as a measure of utility, estimating direct medical costs in US dollars by a model case from the perspective of the third payer. The results will be presented as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. One-way and 2-way sensitivity analyses with tornado diagrams were performed. RESULTS: Direct medical costs were lower at the hospital than from the PHS in Ecuador. Considering the drugs metformin/sitagliptin, the total cost was $35.69 less in the hospital ($880.38) than from the comparator ($916.07). The highest percentage of direct medical costs corresponded to drugs (between 63.94% and 84.65%). An ICER of -$19 131.61 was obtained at the Hospital Un Canto a la Vida and -$1621.85 at PHS. In addition, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year earned was $611.11. Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of drug use and the relative risk of cardiovascular death associated with such prescription were parameters that most affected the model. CONCLUSIONS: The combination therapy metformin/sitagliptin compared to metformin/glibenclamide was shown not to be cost-effective in the Hospital Un Canto a la Vida, and highly cost-effective in the PHS.

Epidemiology of pertussis among adolescents, adults, and older adults in selected countries of Latin American: a systematic review.

We aimed to describe the impact of pertussis on adolescents, adults, and older adults over 2007-2018 in selected Latin American countries by reviewing the literature. We searched the Medline, Embase, Scopus, LILACS, Scielo, Google Scholar, CAPES Journals Web-portal, and Cochrane databases for observational epidemiological studies, clinical trials, and systematic reviews of primary studies. Data were extracted and analyzed for all individuals aged ≥10 years. Of 6,891 studies identified only 25 were eligible. Studies were conducted in Brazil (14), Argentina (4), Colombia (4), Mexico (2) and Chile (1). Epidemiological data among target population were limited. No studies clearly assessed the status of asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic B. pertussis carriers in these age groups. Among all pertussis cases identified, the percentage of patients ≥10 years-old ranged between 2.1% and 66.7% depending on country and sample characteristics. The definition of cases, diagnostic methods, and age groups were not consistent across studies.

Comorbidities and the risk of death among individuals infected by COVID-19 in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the association of self-reported comorbidities with fatality risk among individuals infected with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Espírito Santo State, Brazil. METHODS: We included 212,620 individuals, ≥30 years old. The data were obtained from the COVID-19 panel. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression model were used. RESULTS: COVID-19-positive individuals presenting with chronic conditions were at a higher risk of fatality than individuals without these comorbidities. Age had a significant effect on these relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities were associated with an increased risk of fatality. Middle-aged people (30-59 years) with comorbidities should also be considered as a vulnerable group.

Meningococcal disease epidemiology in Brazil (2005-2018) and impact of MenC vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Meningococcal disease (MD) presents a substantial public health problem in Brazil. Meningococcal C conjugate (MenC) vaccination was introduced into the routine infant immunization program in 2010, followed by adolescent vaccination in 2017. We evaluated changes in national and regional MD incidence and mortality between 2005 and 2018, serogroup distribution and vaccine coverage. METHODS: Data were obtained from national surveillance systems from 2005 to 2018. Age-stratified incidence and mortality rates were calculated and a descriptive time-series analysis was performed comparing rates in the pre-(2005-2009) and post-vaccination (2011-2018) periods; MD due to specific meningococcal serogroups were analyzed in the pre-(2007-2009) and post-vaccination (2011-2018) periods. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2018, 31,108 MD cases were reported with 6496 deaths; 35% of cases and deaths occurred in children < 5 years. Incidence and mortality rates declined steadily since 2012 in all age-strata, with significantly lower incidence and mortality in the post-vaccine introduction period in children aged < 1-year, 1-4 years, 5-9 years and 10-14 years. A significant decline in MenC disease in children < 5 years was observed following MenC vaccine introduction; infants < 1 year, from 3.30/100,000 (2007-2009) to 1.08/100,000 (2011-2018) and from 1.44/100,000 to 0.42/100,000 in 1-4-year-olds for these periods. Reductions in MenB disease was also observed. MenW remains an important cause of MD with 748 cases reported across 2005-2018. While initial infant vaccination coverage was high (>95% nationwide), this has since declined (to 83% in 2018); adolescent uptake was < 20% in 2017/18). Regional variations in outcomes and vaccine coverage were observed. CONCLUSION: A substantial decline in incidence and mortality rates due to MD was seen following MenC vaccine introduction in Brazil, especially among children < 5 years chiefly driven by reductions in MenC serogroup. While these benefits are considerable, the prevalence of MD due to other serogroups such as MenW and MenB remains a concern. A video summary linked to this article can be found on Figshare: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13379612.v1.

Prevalence of rotavirus in acute diarrhea and its association with clinical signs and symptoms.

Rotaviruses are the main etiological agents of acute infectious diarrhea in children. Thus, the objective of this study is to contribute to the information about the rotavirus variants circulating in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 124 fecal samples collected from children up to the age of 5 years, with acute gastroenteritis. Thirty-one samples were positive for rotavirus A. Regarding the G genotyping, 16 (80%) were classified as G1 and regarding P genotyping all strains were classified as P[8]. The determination of the prevalence of rotavirus infection and the characterization of the viral strains circulating are expected to contribute to the information we have about the molecular biology and epidemiology of disease.

Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea.

INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.