Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models.

INTRODUCTION: There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistate model, before assessing their performance in the presence of random and independent censoring through a simulation. METHODS: We studied pseudo-values based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, binary logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (BLR-IPCW), and multinomial logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (MLR-IPCW). The MLR-IPCW approach results in a calibration scatter plot, providing extra insight about the calibration. We simulated data with varying levels of censoring and evaluated the ability of each method to estimate the calibration curve for a set of predicted transition probabilities. We also developed evaluated the calibration of a model predicting the incidence of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease among a cohort of patients derived from linked primary and secondary healthcare records. RESULTS: The pseudo-value, BLR-IPCW, and MLR-IPCW approaches give unbiased estimates of the calibration curves under random censoring. These methods remained predominately unbiased in the presence of independent censoring, even if the censoring mechanism was strongly associated with the outcome, with bias concentrated in low-density regions of predicted transition probability. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend implementing either the pseudo-value or BLR-IPCW approaches to produce a calibration curve, combined with the MLR-IPCW approach to produce a calibration scatter plot. The methods have been incorporated into the "calibmsm" R package available on CRAN.

The Cost of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, with an increasing incidence and prevalence because of progressively aging populations. Costs related to AF are both direct and indirect. This systematic review aims to identify the main cost drivers of the illness, assess the potential economic impact resulting from changes in care strategies, and propose interventions where they are most needed. METHODS: A systematic literature search of the PubMed and Scopus databases was performed to identify analytical observational studies defining the cost of illness in cases of AF. The search strategy was based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) 2020 recommendations. RESULTS: Of the 944 articles retrieved, 24 met the inclusion criteria. These studies were conducted in several countries. All studies calculated the direct medical costs, whereas 8 of 24 studies assessed indirect costs. The median annual direct medical cost per patient, considering all studies, was €9409 (13 333 US dollars in purchasing power parities), with a very large variability due to the heterogeneity of different analyses. Hospitalization costs are generally the main cost drivers. Comorbidities and complications, such as stroke, considerably increase the average annual direct medical cost of AF. CONCLUSIONS: In most of the analyzed studies, inpatient care cost represents the main component of the mean direct medical cost per patient. Stroke and heart failure are responsible for a large share of the total costs; therefore, implementing guidelines to manage comorbidities in AF is a necessary step to improve health and mitigate healthcare costs.

Effect of a community-based primary healthcare programme on adverse pregnancy outcomes in Northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes are among the major contributors to poor maternal and child health. Mothers in remote communities are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes due to constraints in access to healthcare services. In Ghana, a community-based primary healthcare programme called the Ghana Essential Health Interventions Programme (GEHIP) was implemented in a rural region to help strengthen primary healthcare delivery and improve maternal and child healthcare services delivery. This study assessed the effect of this programme on adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: Baseline and end-line survey data from reproductive-aged women from the GEHIP project were used in this analysis. Difference-in-differences and logistic regressions were used to examine the impact and equity effect of GEHIP on adverse pregnancy outcomes using household wealth index and maternal educational attainment as equity measures. The analysis involves the comparison of project baseline and end-line outcomes in intervention and non-intervention districts. RESULTS: The intervention had a significant effect in the reduction of adverse pregnancy outcomes (OR = 0.96, 95% CI:0.93-0.99). Although disadvantaged groups experience larger reductions in adverse pregnancy outcomes, controlling for covariates, there was no statistically significant equity effect of GEHIP on adverse pregnancy outcomes using either the household wealth index (OR = 0.99, 95% CI:0.85-1.16) or maternal educational attainment (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.44-1.07) as equity measures. CONCLUSION: GEHIP's community-based healthcare programme reduced adverse pregnancy outcomes but no effect on relative equity was established. Factoring in approaches for targeting disadvantaged populations in the implementation of community-based health programs is crucial to ensuring equity in health outcomes.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.g., tiered structure of the United Kingdom [UK] Soft Drinks Industry Levy [SDIL]). In Germany, where no tax on SSBs is enacted, the health and economic impact of SSB taxation using the experience from internationally implemented tax designs has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to estimate the health and economic impact of national SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this modelling study, we evaluated a 20% ad valorem SSB tax with/without taxation of fruit juice (based on implemented SSB taxes and recommendations) and a tiered tax (based on the UK SDIL) in the German adult population aged 30 to 90 years from 2023 to 2043. We developed a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD Germany) that captures the demographics, risk factor profile and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the German population using the best available evidence and national data. For each scenario, we estimated changes in sugar consumption and associated weight change. Resulting cases of cardiometabolic disease prevented/postponed and related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and economic impacts from healthcare (medical costs) and societal (medical, patient time, and productivity costs) perspectives were estimated using national cost and health utility data. Additionally, we assessed structural uncertainty regarding direct, body mass index (BMI)-independent cardiometabolic effects of SSBs and cross-validated results with an independently developed cohort model (PRIMEtime). We found that SSB taxation could reduce sugar intake in the German adult population by 1 g/day (95%-uncertainty interval [0.05, 1.65]) for a 20% ad valorem tax on SSBs leading to reduced consumption through increased prices (pass-through of 82%) and 2.34 g/day (95%-UI [2.32, 2.36]) for a tiered tax on SSBs leading to 30% reduction in SSB sugar content via reformulation. Through reductions in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD), 106,000 (95%-UI [57,200, 153,200]) QALYs could be gained with a 20% ad valorem tax and 192,300 (95%-UI [130,100, 254,200]) QALYs with a tiered tax. Respectively, €9.6 billion (95%-UI [4.7, 15.3]) and €16.0 billion (95%-UI [8.1, 25.5]) costs could be saved from a societal perspective over 20 years. Impacts of the 20% ad valorem tax were larger when additionally taxing fruit juice (252,400 QALYs gained, 95%-UI [176,700, 325,800]; €11.8 billion costs saved, 95%-UI [€6.7, €17.9]), but impacts of all scenarios were reduced when excluding direct health effects of SSBs. Cross-validation with PRIMEtime showed similar results. Limitations include remaining uncertainties in the economic and epidemiological evidence and a lack of product-level data. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that SSB taxation in Germany could help to reduce the national burden of noncommunicable diseases and save a substantial amount of societal costs. A tiered tax designed to incentivize reformulation of SSBs towards less sugar might have a larger population-level health and economic impact than an ad valorem tax that incentivizes consumer behaviour change only through increased prices.

Equity in maternal healthcare utilisation in Ghana: Do community-based primary health care programmes matter?

OBJECTIVE: Improving equity in the use of maternal health services in rural and remote communities is critical to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets on maternal and child health. This study examines the effect of a community-based primary healthcare strengthening programme on improving the utilisation of antenatal care (ANC4+), skilled delivery and health facility delivery. METHODS: Baseline and endline survey data of women of reproductive age for intervention and comparison districts were used to examine the equity impact of the Ghana Essential Health Interventions Programme (GEHIP) on antenatal care visits, skilled delivery and health facility delivery. The Wagstaff extension of the concentration index and regression models are used to assess equity effects of the programme on the utilisation of these services by wealth index and educational attainment. RESULTS: Coverage rates increased for both intervention and comparison districts, but were generally higher in intervention districts than comparison districts at endline (90% vs. 88% for ANC4+, 88% vs. 84% for skilled delivery and 93% vs. 88% for health facility delivery). Only ANC4+ showed a statistically significant positive treatment effect of the intervention (Dif-in-Dif = 0.071, p-value = 0.010). Equity analysis showed a mixed picture with intervention districts achieving significant equity improvement for skilled delivery for both wealth index and maternal education but only education equity for health facility delivery, while comparison districts achieved both wealth and education equity improvements for two indicators (health facility delivery and skilled delivery). No significant equity/inequity effects were found for ANC4+. CONCLUSION: Efforts to improve community-based healthcare access have been associated with improved coverage of maternal health services; however, the effect on improving equity in service coverage is mixed. Results indicate a need to extend community-based primary health care development beyond general improvements in access to ensure equity in the coverage of maternal and child health services that such programmes provide.

Developing prediction models to estimate the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring: A comparison of techniques.

INTRODUCTION: This study considers the prediction of the time until two survival outcomes have both occurred. We compared a variety of analytical methods motivated by a typical clinical problem of multimorbidity prognosis. METHODS: We considered five methods: product (multiply marginal risks), dual-outcome (directly model the time until both events occur), multistate models (msm), and a range of copula and frailty models. We assessed calibration and discrimination under a variety of simulated data scenarios, varying outcome prevalence, and the amount of residual correlation. The simulation focused on model misspecification and statistical power. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we compared model performance when predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes both occurring. RESULTS: Discrimination was similar for all methods. The product method was poorly calibrated in the presence of residual correlation. The msm and dual-outcome models were the most robust to model misspecification but suffered a drop in performance at small sample sizes due to overfitting, which the copula and frailty model were less susceptible to. The copula and frailty model's performance were highly dependent on the underlying data structure. In the clinical example, the product method was poorly calibrated when adjusting for 8 major cardiovascular risk factors. DISCUSSION: We recommend the dual-outcome method for predicting the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring. It was the most robust to model misspecification, although was also the most prone to overfitting. The clinical example motivates the use of the methods considered in this study.

Socioeconomic position and the effect of energy labelling on consumer behaviour: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are well documented socioeconomic disparities in diet quality and obesity. Menu energy labelling is a public health policy designed to improve diet and reduce obesity. However, it is unclear whether the impact energy labelling has on consumer behaviour is socially equitable or differs based on socioeconomic position (SEP). METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental (between-subjects) and pre-post implementation field studies examining the impact of menu energy labelling on energy content of food and/or drink selections in higher vs. lower SEP groups. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were eligible for inclusion. Meta-analyses of 13 experimental studies that predominantly examined hypothetical food and drink choices showed that energy labelling tended to be associated with a small reduction in energy content of selections that did not differ based on participant SEP (X2(1) = 0.26, p = .610). Effect estimates for higher SEP SMD = 0.067 [95% CI: -0.092 to 0.226] and lower SEP SMD = 0.115 [95% CI: -0.006 to 0.237] were similar. A meta-analysis of 3 pre-post implementation studies of energy labelling in the real world showed that the effect energy labelling had on consumer behaviour did not significantly differ based on SEP (X2(1) = 0.22, p = .636). In higher SEP the effect was SMD = 0.032 [95% CI: -0.053 to 0.117] and in lower SEP the effect was SMD = -0.005 [95% CI: -0.051 to 0.041]. CONCLUSIONS: Overall there was no convincing evidence that the effect energy labelling has on consumer behaviour significantly differs based on SEP. Further research examining multiple indicators of SEP and quantifying the long-term effects of energy labelling on consumer behaviour in real-world settings is now required. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022312532) and OSF ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W7RDB ).

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.

BACKGROUND: Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework. METHODS: We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity. FINDINGS: We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates. CONCLUSIONS: While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Does Anyone Suffer From Teenage Motherhood? Mental Health Effects of Teen Motherhood in Great Britain Are Small and Homogeneous.

Teen mothers experience disadvantage across a wide range of outcomes. However, previous research is equivocal with respect to possible long-term mental health consequences of teen motherhood and has not adequately considered the possibility that effects on mental health may be heterogeneous. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study, this article applies a novel statistical machine-learning approach-Bayesian Additive Regression Trees-to estimate the effects of teen motherhood on mental health outcomes at ages 30, 34, and 42. We extend previous work by estimating not only sample-average effects but also individual-specific estimates. Our results show that sample-average mental health effects of teen motherhood are substantively small at all time points, apart from age 30 comparisons to women who first became mothers at age 25‒30. Moreover, we find that these effects are largely homogeneous for all women in the sample-indicating that there are no subgroups in the data who experience important detrimental mental health consequences. We conclude that there are likely no mental health benefits to policy and interventions that aim to prevent teen motherhood.

Use of Parental Disability Trajectories to Identify Adolescents Who are Young Carers.

Being a young carer can have significant impacts on the lives of children and adolescents. Identifying young carers is difficult, making the provision of support challenging for service providers. This sample contained 4464 Australian children/adolescents across 11 years (49% female, aged 6/7 years at baseline, and 16/17 years at final wave). Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to examine parental disability trajectories across 5 waves of data collection. Associations between estimated trajectories and unpaid/informal caring at age 16/17 years were then assessed. Three trajectory groups were identified: consistently-low (80%), low-increasing-high (10%) and moderate-high (10%) levels of parental disability. There was strong evidence that caring was elevated in the low-increasing-high group compared to the consistently-low group, and moderate evidence of elevation in the moderate-high group. By identifying adolescents with increased odds of becoming young carers, this study shows that parental disability may be an important way for service providers to identify and support young carers.

Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40 and Beyond.

More than 40 years after the 1978 Bethesda Conference on the Declining Mortality from Coronary Heart Disease provided the scientific community with a blueprint for systematic analysis to understand declining rates of coronary heart disease, there are indications the decline has ended or even reversed despite advances in our knowledge about the condition and treatment. Recent data show a more complex situation, with mortality rates for overall cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke, decelerating, whereas those for heart failure are increasing. To mark the 40th anniversary of the Bethesda Conference, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the American Heart Association cosponsored the "Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40" symposium. The objective was to examine the immediate and long-term outcomes of the 1978 conference and understand the current environment. Symposium themes included trends and future projections in cardiovascular disease (in the United States and internationally), the evolving obesity and diabetes epidemics, and harnessing emerging and innovative opportunities to preserve and promote cardiovascular health and prevent cardiovascular disease. In addition, participant-led discussion explored the challenges and barriers in promoting cardiovascular health across the lifespan and established a potential framework for observational research and interventions that would begin in early childhood (or ideally in utero). This report summarizes the relevant research, policy, and practice opportunities discussed at the symposium.

Food availability and affordability in a Mediterranean urban context: associations by store type and area-level socio-economic status.

OBJECTIVE: Although food environments have been highlighted as potentially effective targets to improve population diets, evidence on Mediterranean food environments is lacking. We examined differences in food availability and affordability in Madrid (Spain) by store type and area-level socio-economic status (SES). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. Trained researchers conducted food store audits using the validated Nutrition Environment Measures Survey in Stores for Mediterranean contexts (NEMS-S-MED) tool to measure the availability and price of twelve food groups (specific foods = 35). We computed NEMS-S-MED scores and summarised price data with a Relative Price Index (RPI, comparing prices across stores) and an Affordability Index (normalising prices by area-level income). We compared the availability and affordability of 'healthier-less healthy' food pairs, scores between food store types (supermarkets, specialised, convenience stores and others) and area-level SES using ANOVA and multi-level regression models. SETTING: City of Madrid. 2016 and 2019 to cover a representative sample. PARTICIPANTS: Food stores within a socio-economically diverse sample of sixty-three census tracts (n 151). RESULTS: Supermarkets had higher food availability (37·5/49 NEMS-S-MED points), compared to convenience stores (13·5/49) and specialised stores (8/49). Supermarkets offered lower prices (RPI: 0·83) than specialised stores (RPI: 0·97) and convenience stores (RPI: 2·06). Both 'healthy' and 'less healthy' items were more available in supermarkets. We found no differences in food availability or price by area-level SES, but affordability was higher in higher-income areas. CONCLUSIONS: Supermarkets offered higher food availability and affordability for healthy and less healthy food items. Promoting healthy food availability through supermarkets and specialised stores and/or limiting access to convenience stores are promising policy options to achieve a healthier food environment.

Do extracurricular activities contribute to better adolescent outcomes? A fixed-effects panel data approach.

INTRODUCTION: Extracurricular activity participation is associated with positive academic, health, and behavioral outcomes for adolescents, but these findings may reflect unobserved confounding rather than participation effects. METHOD: Data were drawn from 3885 adolescents aged 12-15 in a nationally representative cohort of Australian adolescents. Effects of participation in three kinds of extracurricular activity (team sport, individual sport, and arts) on an array of outcomes were modeled using fixed-effects regression to account for potential unobserved confounding. RESULTS: Strong bivariate relationships between all forms of activity participation and positive adolescent outcomes were found. These associations were much smaller in the fixed-effects analysis, but beneficial effects of sports for mental health and arts for peer group characteristics remained statistically significant. Minimal effects of extracurricular activity participation for academic achievement were found. CONCLUSION: Extracurricular activity participation has beneficial effects on adolescents' mental health and exposure to peers' delinquent behavior.

StrokeCog Markov Model: Projected Prevalent and Incident Cases of Stroke and Poststroke Cognitive Impairment to 2035 in Ireland.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia are common stroke outcomes, with significant health and societal implications for aging populations. These outcomes are not included in current epidemiological models. We aimed to develop an epidemiological model to project incidence and prevalence of stroke, poststroke CIND and dementia, and life expectancy, in Ireland to 2035, informing policy and service planning. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic Markov model (the StrokeCog model) applied to the Irish population aged 40 to 89 years to 2035. Data sources included official population and hospital-episode statistics, longitudinal cohort studies, and published estimates. Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. Results were externally validated against independent sources. The model tracks poststroke progression into health states characterized by no cognitive impairment, CIND, dementia, disability, stroke recurrence, and death. RESULTS: We projected 69 051 people with prevalent stroke in Ireland in 2035 (22.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 20.8-23.1]), with 25 274 (8.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 7.1-9.0]) of those projected to have poststroke CIND, and 12 442 having poststroke dementia (4.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 3.2-4.8]). We projected 8725 annual incident strokes in 2035 (2.8 per 1000 population [95% CI, 2.7-2.9]), with 3832 of these having CIND (1.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, 1.1-1.3]), and 1715 with dementia (0.5 per 1000 population [95% CI, 0.5-0.6]). Life expectancy for stroke survivors at age 50 was 23.4 years (95% CI, 22.3-24.5) for women and 20.7 (95% CI, 19.5-21.9) for men. CONCLUSIONS: This novel epidemiological model of stroke, poststroke CIND, and dementia draws on the best available evidence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that findings were robust to assumptions, and where there was uncertainty a conservative approach was taken. The StrokeCog model is a useful tool for service planning and cost-effectiveness analysis and is available for adaptation to other national contexts.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs. CONCLUSION: Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.

Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We estimated the potential impact of trends in diabetes prevalence upon mortality and the future burden of dementia and disability in England and Wales. METHODS: We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was evaluated against three alternative projected trends in diabetes: increases of 49%, 20% and 7%. RESULTS: Our results suggest that changes in the trend in diabetes prevalence will lead to changes in mortality and incidence of dementia and disability, which will become visible after 10-15 years. If the relative prevalence of diabetes increases 49% by 2060, expected additional deaths would be approximately 255,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 236,000-272,200), with 85,900 (71,500-101,600) cumulative additional cases of dementia and 104,900 (85,900-125,400) additional cases of disability. With a smaller relative increase in diabetes prevalence (7% increase by 2060), we estimated 222,200 (205,700-237,300) fewer deaths, and 77,000 (64,300-90,800) and 93,300 (76,700-111,400) fewer additional cases of dementia and disability, respectively, than the baseline case of a 26% increase in diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reducing the burden of diabetes could result in substantial reductions in the incidence of dementia and disability over the medium to long term.

Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health.

BACKGROUND: Excess added sugars, particularly from sugar-sweetened beverages, are a major risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration mandated the labeling of added sugar content on all packaged foods and beverages. Yet, the potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this policy remain unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model (US IMPACT Food Policy model) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus cases averted, quality-adjusted life-years, policy costs, health care, informal care, and lost productivity (health-related) savings and cost-effectiveness of 2 policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy (sugar label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (sugar label+reformulation). The model used nationally representative demographic and dietary intake data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, disease data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder Database, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for model parameter uncertainties and population heterogeneity. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2037, the sugar label would prevent 354 400 cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval, 167 000-673 500) and 599 300 (302 400-957 400) diabetes mellitus cases, gain 727 000 (401 300-1 138 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and save $31 billion (15.7-54.5) in net healthcare costs or $61.9 billion (33.1-103.3) societal costs (incorporating reduced lost productivity and informal care costs). For the sugar label+reformulation scenario, corresponding gains were 708 800 (369 200-1 252 000) cardiovascular disease cases, 1.2 million (0.7-1.7) diabetes mellitus cases, 1.3 million (0.8-1.9) quality-adjusted life-years, and $57.6 billion (31.9-92.4) and $113.2 billion (67.3-175.2), respectively. Both scenarios were estimated with >80% probability to be cost saving by 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy could generate substantial health gains and cost savings for the US population.

Twenty-Year Time Trends in Long-Term Case-Fatality and Recurrence Rates After Ischemic Stroke Stratified by Etiology.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data on long-term survival and recurrence after stroke are lacking. We investigated time trends in ischemic stroke case-fatality and recurrence rates over 20-years stratified by etiological subtype according to the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification within a population-based stroke register in Germany. METHODS: Data was collected within the Erlangen Stroke Project, a prospective, population-based stroke register covering a source population of 105 164 inhabitants (2010). Case fatality and recurrence rates for 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years were estimated with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Sex-specific time trends for case-fatality and recurrence rates were estimated with Cox regression. We adjusted for age, sex, and year of event and stratified for etiological subtypes. A sensitivity analysis with competing risk analysis for time trends in recurrence were performed. RESULTS: Between 1996 and 2015, 3346 patients with first ischemic stroke were included; age-standardized incidence per 100 000 was 75.8 in women and 131.6 in men (2015). Overall, 5-year survival probabilities were 50.4% (95% CI, 47.9-53.1) in women and 59.2% (95% CI, 56.4-62.0) in men; 5-year survival was highest in patients with first stroke due to small-artery occlusion (women, 71.8% [95% CI, 67.1-76.9]; men, 75.9% [95% CI, 71.3-80.9]) and lowest in cardioembolic stroke (women, 35.7% [95% CI, 31.0-41.1]; men, 47.8% [95% CI, 42.2-54.3]). Five-year recurrence rates were 20.1% (95% CI, 17.5-22.6) in women and 20.1% (95% CI, 17.5-22.7) in men; 5-year recurrence rate was lowest in women in stroke due to small artery occlusion 16.0% (95% CI, 11.7-20.1) and in men in large-artery atherosclerosis 16.6% (95% CI, 8.7-23.9); highest risk of recurrence was observed in undefined strokes (women, 22.3% [95% CI, 17.8-26.6]; men, 21.4% [95% CI, 16.7-25.9]). Cox regression revealed improvements in case-fatality rates over time with differences in stroke causes. No time trends in recurrence rates were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term survival and recurrence varied substantially by first stroke cause. Survival probabilities improved over the past 2 decades; no major trends in stroke recurrence rates were observed.

Pilot study using the ECHO model to enhance linkage to care for patients with hepatitis C in the custodial setting.

Prisoners in most countries have a higher prevalence of HCV than the general population, but their access to treatment is very limited. Our aim was to evaluate a pilot programme using the ECHO model to enhance linkage to care in patients with HCV in 3 Argentinean prisons between October 2018 and January 2020. All inmates were invited to participate, and data were collected through a personal interview. We then estimated HCV prevalence with dried blood spot and performed a logistic regression analysis to identify risk behaviours associated with HCV infection. Finally, HCV management was assessed and monitored through ECHO. Overall, 1141 inmates agreed to participate, representing 39.7% of the total prison population. Anti-HCV prevalence was estimated at 1.58% (CI 0.93; 2.48), being significantly higher in women 2.98% (CI 1.4;5.6) than in men 1.07% (CI 0.5; 2.0); P = .03. Patients with anti-HCV were significantly older than those who tested negative, 42.3 years (CI 37.6;47.1) vs 30.1 years (CI 30.6;31.2), P < .001, respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis, identified age OR 1.07 (CI 1.03;1.12, P = .001), history of sexually transmitted disease OR 3.08 (CI 0.97;9.82, P = .057) and intravenous drug use OR 12.6 (CI 3.31;48.53, P < .001) as risk factors associated with anti-HCV. Treatment was initiated in all the patients with specialist physician support utilizing ECHO model. In conclusion, our pilot study reported a low prevalence of anti-HCV in the studied population. Incarceration provides an ideal opportunity for testing and treating HCV. ECHO model arises as a useful tool to support assessment and treatment for inmates with chronic HCV.