Analytical estimation of maximum fraction of infected individuals with one-shot non-pharmaceutical intervention in a hybrid epidemic model.

BACKGROUND: Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the problems in assessing the effects of NPIs is that different NPIs have been implemented at different times based on the situation of each country; therefore, few assumptions can be shared about how the introduction of policies affects the patient population. Mathematical models can contribute to further understanding these phenomena by obtaining analytical solutions as well as numerical simulations. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, an NPI was introduced into the SIR model for a conceptual study of infectious diseases under the condition that the transmission rate was reduced to a fixed value only once within a finite time duration, and its effect was analyzed numerically and theoretically. It was analytically shown that the maximum fraction of infected individuals and the final size could be larger if the intervention starts too early. The analytical results also suggested that more individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quantitative relationship between the strength of a one-shot intervention and the reduction in the number of patients with no approximation. This suggests the importance of the strength and time of NPIs, although detailed studies are necessary for the implementation of NPIs in complicated real-world environments as the model used in this study is based on various simplifications.

Similarity in Neuronal Firing Regimes across Mammalian Species.

UNLABELLED: The architectonic subdivisions of the brain are believed to be functional modules, each processing parts of global functions. Previously, we showed that neurons in different regions operate in different firing regimes in monkeys. It is possible that firing regimes reflect differences in underlying information processing, and consequently the firing regimes in homologous regions across animal species might be similar. We analyzed neuronal spike trains recorded from behaving mice, rats, cats, and monkeys. The firing regularity differed systematically, with differences across regions in one species being greater than the differences in similar areas across species. Neuronal firing was consistently most regular in motor areas, nearly random in visual and prefrontal/medial prefrontal cortical areas, and bursting in the hippocampus in all animals examined. This suggests that firing regularity (or irregularity) plays a key role in neural computation in each functional subdivision, depending on the types of information being carried. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: By analyzing neuronal spike trains recorded from mice, rats, cats, and monkeys, we found that different brain regions have intrinsically different firing regimes that are more similar in homologous areas across species than across areas in one species. Because different regions in the brain are specialized for different functions, the present finding suggests that the different activity regimes of neurons are important for supporting different functions, so that appropriate neuronal codes can be used for different modalities.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Emergence of event cascades in inhomogeneous networks.

There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the systems exhibit catastrophic chain reactions if the interaction represented by the ratio of reproduction exceeds unity; however, their subthreshold states are not fully understood. Here, we report that these systems are possessed by nonstationary cascades of event-occurrences already in the subthreshold regime. Event cascades can be harmful in some contexts, when the peak-demand causes vaccine shortages, heavy traffic on communication lines, but may be beneficial in other contexts, such that spontaneous activity in neural networks may be used to generate motion or store memory. Thus it is important to comprehend the mechanism by which such cascades appear, and consider controlling a system to tame or facilitate fluctuations in the event-occurrences. The critical interaction for the emergence of cascades depends greatly on the network structure in which individuals are connected. We demonstrate that we can predict whether cascades may emerge, given information about the interactions between individuals. Furthermore, we develop a method of reallocating connections among individuals so that event cascades may be either impeded or impelled in a network.

Bursting transition in a linear self-exciting point process.

Self-exciting point processes describe the manner in which every event facilitates the occurrence of succeeding events, as in the case of epidemics or human activity. By increasing excitability, the event occurrences start to exhibit bursts even in the absence of external stimuli. We revealed that the transition is uniquely determined by the average number of events added by a single event, 1-1/√2≈0.2929, independently of the temporal excitation profile. We further extended the theory to multidimensional processes, to be able to incite or inhibit bursting in networks of agents by altering their connections.