Differential associations between pre-diabetes, diabetes and stroke occurrence among West Africans.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data from Africa on the burden and associations between pre-diabetes (pre-DM), diabetes mellitus (DM) and stroke occurrence in a region experiencing a profound rise in stroke burden. PURPOSE: To characterize the associations between stroke and dysglycemic status among West Africans. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Controls were age-and-gender matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular factors were performed. Pre-diabetes was defined as HBA1c of 5.7%-6.4% or Fasting blood glucose (FBG) 5.6-7.0 mmol/L and DM as HBA1c >6.5% or FBG>7.0 mmol/L. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% Confidence Interval. RESULTS: Among 2,935 stroke cases the mean age was 60.0 ± 14.2 years with 55.2% being males. By glycemic status, 931 (31.7%) were euglycemic, 633 (21.6%) had Pre-diabetes and 1371 (46.7%) had DM. Of the age- and sex-matched stroke-free controls 69.2% were euglycemic, 13.3% had pre-DM and 17.5% had DM. Pre-DM [aOR (95% CI): 3.68(2.61-5.21)] and DM [4.29 (3.19-5.74)] were independently associated with stroke. The aOR of Pre-DM for ischemic stroke 3.06 (2.01-4.64)] was lower than 4.82 (3.37-6.89) for DM. However, the aOR of Pre-DM for hemorrhagic stroke 6.81 (95% CI: 3.29 - 14.08)] was higher than 3.36 (1.94-5.86) for DM. Furthermore, the aOR of pre-DM for ischemic stroke subtypes were 9.64 (1.30-71.57) for cardio-embolic stroke, 3.64 (1.80-7.34) for small-vessel occlusive disease and 4.63 (0.80-26.65) for large-vessel disease. CONCLUSION: Pre-DM is strongly and independently associated with stroke in Africans. Improving glycemic control through screening, healthy lifestyle and pharmacotherapy at a population level may be strategic in reducing the rising burden of stroke in Africa.

A Novel Afrocentric Stroke Risk Assessment Score: Models from the Siren Study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke risk can be quantified using risk factors whose effect sizes vary by geography and race. No stroke risk assessment tool exists to estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African. OBJECTIVES: To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for stroke occurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated 3533 radiologically confirmed West African stroke cases paired 1:1 with age-, and sex-matched stroke-free controls in the SIREN study. The 7,066 subjects were randomly split into a training and testing set at the ratio of 85:15. Conditional logistic regression models were constructed by including 17 putative factors linked to stroke occurrence using the training set. Significant risk factors were assigned constant and standardized statistical weights based on regression coefficients (ß) to develop an additive risk scoring system on a scale of 0-100%. Using the testing set, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to obtain a total score to serve as cut-off to discriminate between cases and controls. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at this cut-off. RESULTS: For stroke occurrence, we identified 15 traditional vascular factors. Cohen's kappa for validity was maximal at a total risk score of 56% using both statistical weighting approaches to risk quantification and in both datasets. The risk score had a predictive accuracy of 76% (95%CI: 74-79%), sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 63.0%, PPV of 68.5% and NPV of 76.2% in the test dataset. For ischemic strokes, 12 risk factors had predictive accuracy of 78% (95%CI: 74-81%). For hemorrhagic strokes, 7 factors had a predictive accuracy of 79% (95%CI: 73-84%). CONCLUSIONS: The SIREN models quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans with good accuracy. Prospective studies are needed to validate this instrument for stroke prevention.

Clinical and neuroimaging factors associated with 30-day fatality among indigenous West Africans with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with a high case fatality rate in resource-limited settings. The independent predictors of poor outcome after ICH in sub-Saharan Africa remains to be characterized in large epidemiological studies. We aimed to determine factors associated with 30-day fatality among West African patients with ICH. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study is a multicentre, case-control study conducted at 15 sites in Nigeria and Ghana. Adults aged ≥18 years with spontaneous ICH confirmed with neuroimaging. Demographic, cardiovascular risk factors, clinical features and neuroimaging markers of severity were assessed. The independent risk factors for 30-day mortality were determined using a multivariate logistic regression analysis with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Among 964 patients with ICH, 590 (61.2%) were males with a mean age (SD) of 54.3(13.6) years and a case fatality of 34.3%. Factors associated with 30-day mortality among ICH patients include: Elevated mean National Institute of Health Stroke Scale(mNIHSS);(OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.11), aspiration pneumonitis; (OR 7.17; 95% CI 2.82-18.24), ICH volume > 30mls; OR 2.68; 95% CI 1.02-7.00)) low consumption of leafy vegetables (OR 0.36; 95% CI 0.15-0.85). CONCLUSION: This study identified risk and protective factors associated with 30-day mortality among West Africans with spontaneous ICH. These factors should be further investigated in other populations in Africa to enable the development of ICH mortality predictions models among indigenous Africans.