Evolved attitudes to risk and the demand for equity.

The equity premium puzzle refers to the observation that people invest far less in the stock market than is implied by measures of their risk aversion in other contexts. Here, we argue that light on this puzzle can be shed by the hypothesis that human risk attitudes were at least partly shaped by our evolutionary history. In particular, a simple evolutionary model shows that natural selection will, over the long haul, favor a greater aversion to aggregate than to idiosyncratic risk. We apply this model-via both a static model of portfolio choice and a dynamic model that allows for intertemporal tradeoffs-to show that an aversion to aggregate risk that is derived from biology may help explain the equity premium puzzle. The type of investor favored in our model would indeed invest less in equities than other common observations of risk-taking behavior from outside the stock market would imply, while engaging in reasonable tradeoffs over time.

Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers' perspective.

The UK Climate Change Act requires the Environment Agency to report the risks it faces from climate change and actions taken to address these. Derived information from projections is critical to understanding likely impacts in water management. In 2019, the UK published an ensemble of high-resolution model simulations. The UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections can resolve smaller scale physical processes that determine rainfall and other variables at subdaily time-scales with the potential to provide new insights into extreme events, storm runoff and drainage management. However, simulations also need to inform adaptation. The challenge ahead is to identify and provide derived products without the need for further analysis by decision-makers. These include a wider evaluation of uncertainty, narratives about rainfall change across the projections and bias-corrected datasets. Future flood maps, peak rainfall estimates, uplift factors and future design storm profiles also need detailed guidance to support their use. Central government support is justified in the provision of up-to-date impacts information to inform flood risk management, given the large risks and exposure of all sectors. The further development of projections would benefit from greater focus and earlier scoping with industry representatives, operational tool developers and end users. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.

The Population Genetics of Evolutionary Rescue in Diploids: X Chromosomal versus Autosomal Rescue.

Most population genetic theory assumes that populations adapt to an environmental change without a change in population size. However, environmental changes might be so severe that populations decline in size and, without adaptation, become extinct. This "evolutionary rescue" scenario differs from traditional models of adaptation in that rescue involves a race between adaptation and extinction. While most previous work has usually focused on models of evolutionary rescue in haploids, here we consider diploids. In many species, diploidy introduces a novel feature into adaptation: adaptive evolution might occur either on sex chromosomes or on autosomes. Previous studies of nonrescue adaptation revealed that the relative rates of adaptation on the X chromosome versus autosomes depend on the dominance of beneficial mutations, reflecting differences in effective population size and the efficacy of selection. Here, we extend these results to evolutionary rescue and find that, given equal-sized chromosomes, there is greater parameter space in which the X is more likely to contribute to adaptation than the autosomes relative to standard nonrescue models. We also discuss how subtle effects of dominance can increase the chance of evolutionary rescue in diploids when absolute heterozygote fitness is close to 1. These effects do not arise in standard nonrescue models.

Live imaging of root-bacteria interactions in a microfluidics setup.

Plant roots play a dominant role in shaping the rhizosphere, the environment in which interaction with diverse microorganisms occurs. Tracking the dynamics of root-microbe interactions at high spatial resolution is currently limited because of methodological intricacy. Here, we describe a microfluidics-based approach enabling direct imaging of root-bacteria interactions in real time. The microfluidic device, which we termed tracking root interactions system (TRIS), consists of nine independent chambers that can be monitored in parallel. The principal assay reported here monitors behavior of fluorescently labeled Bacillus subtilis as it colonizes the root of Arabidopsis thaliana within the TRIS device. Our results show a distinct chemotactic behavior of B. subtilis toward a particular root segment, which we identify as the root elongation zone, followed by rapid colonization of that same segment over the first 6 h of root-bacteria interaction. Using dual inoculation experiments, we further show active exclusion of Escherichia coli cells from the root surface after B. subtilis colonization, suggesting a possible protection mechanism against root pathogens. Furthermore, we assembled a double-channel TRIS device that allows simultaneous tracking of two root systems in one chamber and performed real-time monitoring of bacterial preference between WT and mutant root genotypes. Thus, the TRIS microfluidics device provides unique insights into the microscale microbial ecology of the complex root microenvironment and is, therefore, likely to enhance the current rate of discoveries in this momentous field of research.

Measures of the efficiency of natural selection during gene substitution.

Natural selection is not perfectly efficient: it does not cause the instantaneous substitution of a beneficial mutation. Instead, substitution takes time, reflecting the statistical consequences of fitness differences over some number of generations. In this note, I suggest two measures of the efficiency of natural selection during gene substitution. I compare these measures against both ideal (instantaneous) and failed evolution. I also compare these measures to Haldane's cost of natural selection.

N-Halamine Derivatized Nanoparticles with Selective Cyanocidal Activity: Potential for Targeted Elimination of Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms.

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs) are becoming a major challenge for the management of both natural and man-made freshwater lakes and reservoirs. Phytoplankton communities are an essential component of aquatic ecosystems, providing the basis for natural food webs as well as important environmental services. HCBs, driven by a combination of environmental pollution and rising global temperatures, destabilize phytoplankton communities with major impacts on aquatic ecology and trophic interactions. Application of currently available algaecides generally results in unselective elimination of phytoplankton species, disrupting water ecology and environmental services provided by beneficial algae. There is thus a need for selective cyanocidal compounds that can eliminate cyanobacteria while preserving algal members of the phytoplankton community. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of N-halamine derivatized nanoparticles (Cl NPs) in selectively eliminating cyanobacteria, including the universal bloom-forming species Microcystis aeruginosa, while having minimal effect on co-occurring algal species. We further support these results with the use a simple microfluidic platform in combination with advanced live-imaging microscopy to study the effects of Cl NPs on both laboratory cultures and natural populations of cyanobacteria and algae at single cell resolutions. We note that the Cl NPs used in this work were made of polymethacrylamide, a nonbiodegradable polymer that may be unsuitable for use as a cyanocide in open aquatic environments. Nevertheless, the demonstrated selective action of these Cl NPs suggests a potential for developing alternative, biodegradable carriers with similar properties as future cyanocidal agents that will enable selective elimination of HCBs.

A novel application of remote sensing for modelling impacts of tree shading on water quality.

Uncertainty in capturing the effects of riparian tree shade for assessment of algal growth rates and water temperature hinders the predictive capability of models applied for river basin management. Using photogrammetry-derived tree canopy data, we quantified hourly shade along the River Thames (UK) and used it to estimate the reduction in the amount of direct radiation reaching the water surface. In addition we tested the suitability of freely-available LIDAR data to map ground elevation. Following removal of buildings and objects other than trees from the LIDAR dataset, results revealed considerable differences between photogrammetry- and LIDAR-derived methods in variables including mean canopy height (10.5 m and 4.0 m respectively), percentage occupancy of riparian zones by trees (45% and 16% respectively) and mid-summer fractional penetration of direct radiation (65% and 76% respectively). The generated data on daily direct radiation for 2010 were used as input to a river network water quality model (QUESTOR). Impacts of tree shading were assessed in terms of upper quartile levels, revealing substantial differences in indicators such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) (1.58-2.19 mg L-1 respectively) and water temperature (20.1 and 21.2 °C respectively) between 'shaded' and 'non-shaded' radiation inputs. Whilst the differences in canopy height and extent derived by the two methods are appreciable they only make small differences to water quality in the Thames. However such differences may prove more critical in smaller rivers. We highlight the importance of accurate estimation of shading in water quality modelling and recommend use of high resolution remotely sensed spatial data to characterise riparian canopies. Our paper illustrates how it is now possible to make better reach scale estimates of shade and make aggregations of these for use at river basin scale. This will allow provision of more effective guidance for riparian management programmes than currently possible. This is important to support adaptation to future warming and maintenance of water quality standards.

The population genetics of evolutionary rescue.

Evolutionary rescue occurs when a population that is threatened with extinction by an environmental change adapts to the change sufficiently rapidly to survive. Here we extend the mathematical theory of evolutionary rescue. In particular, we model evolutionary rescue to a sudden environmental change when adaptation involves evolution at a single locus. We consider adaptation using either new mutations or alleles from the standing genetic variation that begin rare. We obtain several results: i) the total probability of evolutionary rescue from either new mutation or standing variation; ii) the conditions under which rescue is more likely to involve a new mutation versus an allele from the standing genetic variation; iii) a mathematical description of the U-shaped curve of total population size through time, conditional on rescue; and iv) the time until the average population size begins to rebound as well as the minimal expected population size experienced by a rescued population. Our analysis requires taking into account a subtle population-genetic effect (familiar from the theory of genetic hitchhiking) that involves "oversampling" of those lucky alleles that ultimately sweep to high frequency. Our results are relevant to conservation biology, experimental microbial evolution, and medicine (e.g., the dynamics of antibiotic resistance).

Vortical ciliary flows actively enhance mass transport in reef corals.

The exchange of nutrients and dissolved gasses between corals and their environment is a critical determinant of the growth of coral colonies and the productivity of coral reefs. To date, this exchange has been assumed to be limited by molecular diffusion through an unstirred boundary layer extending 1-2 mm from the coral surface, with corals relying solely on external flow to overcome this limitation. Here, we present direct microscopic evidence that, instead, corals can actively enhance mass transport through strong vortical flows driven by motile epidermal cilia covering their entire surface. Ciliary beating produces quasi-steady arrays of counterrotating vortices that vigorously stir a layer of water extending up to 2 mm from the coral surface. We show that, under low ambient flow velocities, these vortices, rather than molecular diffusion, control the exchange of nutrients and oxygen between the coral and its environment, enhancing mass transfer rates by up to 400%. This ability of corals to stir their boundary layer changes the way that we perceive the microenvironment of coral surfaces, revealing an active mechanism complementing the passive enhancement of transport by ambient flow. These findings extend our understanding of mass transport processes in reef corals and may shed new light on the evolutionary success of corals and coral reefs.

Fitness and its role in evolutionary genetics.

Although the operation of natural selection requires that genotypes differ in fitness, some geneticists may find it easier to understand natural selection than fitness. Partly this reflects the fact that the word 'fitness' has been used to mean subtly different things. In this Review I distinguish among these meanings (for example, individual fitness, absolute fitness and relative fitness) and explain how evolutionary geneticists use fitness to predict changes in the genetic composition of populations through time. I also review the empirical study of fitness, emphasizing approaches that take advantage of recent genetic and genomic data, and I highlight important unresolved problems in understanding fitness.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 5 in a family descended from the grandparents of President Lincoln maps to chromosome 11.

Autosomal dominant ataxias are a genetically heterogeneous group of disorders for which spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) loci on chromosomes 6p, 12q, 14q and 16q have been reported. We have examined 170 individuals (56 of whom were affected) from a previously unreported ten-generation kindred with a dominant ataxia that is clinically and genetically distinct from those previously mapped. The family has two major branches which both descend from the paternal grandparents of President Abraham Lincoln. Among those examined, 56 individuals have a generally non-life threatening cerebellar ataxia. Disease onset varies from 10-68 years and anticipation is evident. We have mapped this gene, spinocerebellar ataxia type 5 (SCA5), to the centromeric region of chromosome 11.

Expression analysis of the ataxin-1 protein in tissues from normal and spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 individuals.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 (SCA1) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disorder caused by expansion of a CAG trinucleotide repeat which codes for glutamine in the protein ataxin-1. We have investigated the effect of this expansion on ataxin-1 by immunoblot analysis. The wild-type protein is detected in both normal and affected individuals; however, a mutant protein which varies in its migration properties according to the size of the CAG repeat is detected in cultured cells and tissues from SCA1 individuals. The protein has a nuclear localization in all normal and SCA1 brain regions examined but a cytoplasmic localization of ataxin-1 was also observed in cerebellar Purkinje cells. Our data show that in SCA1, the expanded alleles are faithfully translated into proteins of apparently normal stability and distribution.

Evidence for a mechanism predisposing to intergenerational CAG repeat instability in spinocerebellar ataxia type I.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type I (SCAI) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disease caused by the expansion of a CAG trinucleotide repeat on chromosome 6p. Normal alleles range from 19-36 repeats while SCA1 alleles contain 43-81 repeats. We now show that in 63% of paternal transmissions, an increase in repeat number is observed, whereas 69% of maternal transmissions showed no change or a decrease in repeat number. Sequence analysis of the repeat from 126 chromosomes reveals an interrupted repeat configuration in 98% of the unexpanded alleles but a contiguous repeat (CAG)n configuration in 30 expanded alleles from seven SCA1 families. This indicates that the repeat instability in SCA1 is more complex than a simple variation in repeat number and that the loss of an interruption predisposes the SCA1 (CAG)n to expansion.

Gametic and somatic tissue-specific heterogeneity of the expanded SCA1 CAG repeat in spinocerebellar ataxia type 1.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 is associated with expansion of an unstable CAG repeat within the SCA1 gene. Male gametic heterogeneity of the expanded repeat is demonstrated using single sperm and low-copy genome analysis. Low-copy genome analysis of peripheral blood also reveals somatic heterogeneity of the expanded SCA1 allele, thus establishing mitotic instability at this locus. Comparative analysis of a large normal allele and a small affected allele suggests a role of midstream CAT interspersions in stabilizing long (CAG)n stretches. Within the brain, tissue-specific mosaicism of the expanded allele is also observed. The differences in SCA1 allele heterogeneity between sperm and blood and within the brain parallels the findings in Huntington disease, suggesting that both disorders share a common mechanism for tissue-specific instability.

Chaperone suppression of aggregation and altered subcellular proteasome localization imply protein misfolding in SCA1.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 (SCA1) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disorder caused by expansion of a polyglutamine tract in ataxin-1. In affected neurons of SCA1 patients and transgenic mice, mutant ataxin-1 accumulates in a single, ubiquitin-positive nuclear inclusion. In this study, we show that these inclusions stain positively for the 20S proteasome and the molecular chaperone HDJ-2/HSDJ. Similarly, HeLa cells transfected with mutant ataxin-1 develop nuclear aggregates which colocalize with the 20S proteasome and endogenous HDJ-2/HSDJ. Overexpression of wild-type HDJ-2/HSDJ in HeLa cells decreases the frequency of ataxin-1 aggregation. These data suggest that protein misfolding is responsible for the nuclear aggregates seen in SCA1, and that overexpression of a DnaJ chaperone promotes the recognition of a misfolded polyglutamine repeat protein, allowing its refolding and/or ubiquitin-dependent degradation.

Expansion of an unstable trinucleotide CAG repeat in spinocerebellar ataxia type 1.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 (SCA1) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterized by neurodegeneration of the cerebellum, spinal cord and brainstem. A 1.2-Megabase stretch of DNA from the short arm of chromosome 6 containing the SCA1 locus was isolated in a yeast artificial chromosome contig and subcloned into cosmids. A highly polymorphic CAG repeat was identified in this region and was found to be unstable and expanded in individuals with SCA1. There is a direct correlation between the size of the (CAG)n repeat expansion and the age-of-onset of SCA1, with larger alleles occurring in juvenile cases. We also show that the repeat is present in a 10 kilobase mRNA transcript. SCA1 is therefore the fifth genetic disorder to display a mutational mechanism involving an unstable trinucleotide repeat.

Identification and characterization of the gene causing type 1 spinocerebellar ataxia.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 (SCA1) is a neurodegenerative disorder caused by expansion of a CAG trinucleotide repeat. In this study, we describe the identification and characterization of the gene harbouring this repeat. The SCA1 transcript is 10,660 bases and is transcribed from both the wild type and SCA1 alleles. The CAG repeat, coding for a polyglutamine tract, lies within the coding region. The gene spans 450 kb of genomic DNA and is organized in nine exons. The first seven fall in the 5' untranslated region and the last two contain the coding region, and a 7,277 basepairs 3' untranslated region. The first four non-coding exons undergo alternative splicing in several tissues. These features suggest that the transcriptional and translational regulation of ataxin-1, the SCA1 encoded protein, may be complex.

Elucidating the effect of tomato leaf surface microstructure on Botrytis cinerea using synthetic systems.

For some pathogenic fungi, sensing surface topography is part of their infection strategy. Their directional growth and transformation to a new developmental stage is influenced by contact with topographic features, which is referred to as thigmo-response, the exact functionality of which is not fully understood. Research on thigmo-responses is often performed on biomimetically patterned surfaces (BPS). Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) is especially suitable for fabrication of BPS. Here, we used synthetic BPS surfaces, mimicking tomato leaf surface, made from PDMS with the pathogenic fungus Botrytis cinerea to study the influence of structural features of the leaf surface on the fungus behavior. As a control, a PDMS surface without microstructure was fabricated to maintain the same chemical properties. Pre-penetration processes of B. cinerea, including the distribution of conidia on the surface, germination, and germ tube growth were observed on both leaf-patterned and flat PDMS. Microstructure affected the location of immediate attachment of conidia. Additionally, the microstructure of the plant host stimulated the development of germ tube in B. cinerea, at a higher rate than that observed on flat surface, suggesting that microstructure plays a role in fungus attachment and development.

Low-Resolution Raman Spectroscopy for the detection of contaminant species in algal bioreactors.

Fouling of aquatic systems by harmful microalgal and cyanobacterial species is an environmental and public health concern. Microalgal bioreactors are engineered ecosystems for the cultivation of algal biomass to meet the increasing demand for alternative protein sources and algae-derived products. Such bioreactors are often open or semi-open ponds or raceways that are prone to contamination by contaminant photosynthetic microorganisms, including harmful cyanobacterial species (HCBs). HCBs affect the quality of products through the accumulation of off-flavours, reducing their acceptance by consumers, and through the production of several different toxins collectively known as cyanotoxins. The density of cultured species within the bioreactor environment creates difficulty in detecting low concentrations of contaminant cells, and there is currently no technology enabling rapid monitoring of contaminations. The present study demonstrates the potential of Low-Resolution Raman Spectroscopy (LRRS) as a tool for rapid detection of low concentrations of HCBs within dense populations of the spirulina (Arthrospira platensis) cultures. An LRRS system adapted for the direct measurement of raw biomass samples was used to assemble a database of Raman spectral signatures, from eight algal and cyanobacterial strains. This dataset was used to develop both quantitative and discriminative chemometric models. The results obtained from the chemometric analyses demonstrate the ability of the LRRS to detect and quantify algal and cyanobacterial species at concentrations as low as 103 cells/mL and to robustly discriminate between species at concentrations of 104 cells/mL. The LRRS and chemometric analyses were further able to detect the presence of low concentrations (103cells/mL) of contaminating species, including the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa, within dense (>107 cells/mL) spirulina cultures. The results presented provide a first demonstration of the potential of LRRS technology for real-time detection of contaminant species within microalgal bioreactors, and possibly for early detection of developing harmful algal blooms in other aquatic ecosystems.