A Granular View of Emergency Department Length of Stay: Improving Predictive Power and Extracting Real-Time, Actionable Insights.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Improved understanding of factors affecting prolonged emergency department (ED) length of stay is crucial to improving patient outcomes. Our investigation builds on prior work by considering ED length of stay in operationally distinct time periods and using benchmark and novel machine learning techniques applied only to data that would be available to ED operators in real time. METHODS: This study was a retrospective review of patient visits over 1 year at 2 urban EDs, including 1 academic and 1 academically affiliated ED, and 2 suburban, community EDs. ED length of stay was partitioned into 3 components: arrival-to-room, room-to-disposition, and admit disposition to departure. Prolonged length of stay for each component was considered beyond 1, 3, and 2 hours, respectively. Classification models (logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost) were applied, and important features were evaluated. RESULTS: In total, 135,044 unique patient encounters were evaluated for the arrival-to-room, room-to-disposition, and admit disposition-to-departure models, which had accuracy ranges of 84% to 96%, 66% to 77%, and 62% to 72%, respectively. Waiting room and ED volumes were important features in all arrival-to-room models. Room-to-disposition results identified patient characteristics and ED volume as the most important features for prediction. Boarder volume was an important feature of the admit disposition-to-departure models for all sites. Academic site models noted nurse staffing ratios as important, whereas community site models noted hospital capacity and surgical volume as important for admit disposition-to-departure prediction. CONCLUSION: This study identified granular capacity, flow, and nurse staffing predictors of ED length of stay not previously reported in the literature. Our novel methodology allowed for more accurate and operationally meaningful findings compared to prior modeling methods.

Risk of persistent air leaks following percutaneous cryoablation and microwave ablation of peripheral lung tumors.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the incidence of persistent air leak (PAL) following cryoablation vs MWA of lung tumors when the ablation zone includes the pleura. METHODS: This bi-institutional retrospective cohort study evaluated consecutive peripheral lung tumors treated with cryoablation or MWA from 2006 to 2021. PAL was defined as an air leak for more than 24 h after chest tube placement or an enlarging postprocedural pneumothorax requiring chest tube placement. The pleural area included by the ablation zone was quantified on CT using semi-automated segmentation. PAL incidence was compared between ablation modalities and a parsimonious multivariable model was developed to assess the odds of PAL using generalized estimating equations and purposeful selection of predefined covariates. Time-to-local tumor progression (LTP) was compared between ablation modalities using Fine-Gray models, with death as a competing risk. RESULTS: In total, 260 tumors (mean diameter, 13.1 mm ± 7.4; mean distance to pleura, 3.6 mm ± 5.2) in 116 patients (mean age, 61.1 years ± 15.3; 60 women) and 173 sessions (112 cryoablations, 61 MWA) were included. PAL occurred after 25/173 (15%) sessions. The incidence was significantly lower following cryoablation compared to MWA (10 [9%] vs 15 [25%]; p = .006). The odds of PAL adjusted for the number of treated tumors per session were 67% lower following cryoablation (odds ratio = 0.33 [95% CI, 0.14-0.82]; p = .02) vs MWA. There was no significant difference in time-to-LTP between ablation modalities (p = .36). CONCLUSIONS: Cryoablation of peripheral lung tumors bears a lower risk of PAL compared to MWA when the ablation zone includes the pleura, without adversely affecting time-to-LTP. KEY POINTS: • The incidence of persistent air leaks after percutaneous ablation of peripheral lung tumors was lower following cryoablation compared to microwave ablation (9% vs 25%; p = .006). • The mean chest tube dwell time was 54% shorter following cryoablation compared to MWA (p = .04). • Local tumor progression did not differ between lung tumors treated with percutaneous cryoablation compared to microwave ablation (p = .36).

Active Versus Passive Thaw After Percutaneous Cryoablation of Pulmonary Tumors: Effect on Incidence, Grade, and Onset of Hemoptysis.

BACKGROUND. Hemoptysis is common after percutaneous image-guided cryoablation of pulmonary tumors. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the effect of a final active thaw on the incidence, grade, and onset of hemoptysis after percutaneous cryoablation of pulmonary tumors. METHODS. This retrospective cohort study included 60 consecutive CT-guided cryoablation sessions targeting 95 pulmonary tumors in 47 patients from March 2017 to September 2020. The final thaw of a triple-freeze protocol was active (electrical, helium-free) in 27 of 60 sessions (45%, active group) and passive in 33 of 60 sessions (55%, passive group). The incidence, onset, and management of hemoptysis were recorded using prospectively collected data. Hemoptysis, pneumothorax, and hemothorax within 30 days after ablation were graded according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) version 5.0. The volume of immediate posttreatment changes on CT was quantified using semiautomated segmentation. Outcomes were compared between groups using generalized estimating equation models. A parsimonious multivariable model for hemoptysis incidence was developed using purposeful selection of predefined covariates followed by bootstrap resampling. Local tumor control was compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank testing. RESULTS. Hemoptysis occurred after 26 of 60 (43%) sessions and was self-limited (CTCAE grade 1) in 22 of 26 (85%) sessions. The incidence of hemoptysis was lower in the active group than in the passive group (19% vs 64%, respectively; p = .002). The odds of hemoptysis adjusted for immediate posttreatment changes were 92% lower in the active group (odds ratio [OR], 0.08 [95% CI, 0.02-0.37]; p = .004). The odds of hemoptysis greater than grade 1 were 79% lower in the active group (OR, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.07-0.64]; p = .006). In the active group, the onset of hemoptysis was significantly delayed (OR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.61-0.91]; p = .005). Pneumothorax (p = .60), hemothorax (p = .84), and local tumor control (p = .77) did not differ between groups. CONCLUSION. Active thaw after the final freeze reduces the incidence and grade of hemoptysis and delays the onset of hemoptysis after percutaneous cryoablation of pulmonary tumors without adversely affecting other procedural complications and local tumor control. CLINICAL IMPACT. Active thaw after the final freeze improves the safety profile of triple-freeze cryoablation of pulmonary tumors by reducing the incidence and grade of hemoptysis and by delaying the onset of hemoptysis beyond the immediate recovery period.