A comprehensive description of kidney disease progression after acute kidney injury from a prospective, parallel-group cohort study.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with adverse long-term outcomes, but many studies are retrospective, focused on specific patient groups or lack adequate comparators. The ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) Study was a five-year prospective parallel-group cohort study to examine this. Hospitalized cohorts with and without exposure to AKI were matched 1:1 for age, baseline kidney function, and diabetes. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (uACR) were measured at three-months, one-, three- and five-years. Outcomes included kidney disease progression, heart failure episodes and mortality. In 866 matched individuals, kidney disease progression at five years was found to be significantly increased in 30% of the exposed group versus 7% of those non-exposed (adjusted odds ratio 2.49 [95% confidence interval 1.43 to 4.36]). In the AKI group, this was largely characterized by incomplete recovery of kidney function by three months. Further episodes of AKI during follow-up were significantly more common in the exposed group (odds ratio 2.71 [1.94 to 3.77]) and had an additive effect on risk of kidney disease progression. Mortality and heart failure episodes were more frequent in the exposed group, but the association with AKI was no longer significant when models were adjusted for three-month eGFR and uACR. In a general hospitalized population, kidney disease progression after five years was common and strongly associated with AKI. Thus, the time course of changes and the attenuation of associations with adverse outcomes after adjustment for three-month eGFR and uACR suggest non-recovery of kidney function is an important assessment in post-AKI care and a potential future target for intervention. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN25405995.

Plasma Soluble Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Concentrations and Clinical Events After Hospitalization: Findings From the ASSESS-AKI and ARID Studies.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The role of plasma soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 in the prognosis of clinical events after hospitalization with or without acute kidney injury (AKI) is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Hospital survivors from the ASSESS-AKI (Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury) and ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) studies with and without AKI during the index hospitalization who had baseline serum samples for biomarker measurements. PREDICTORS: We measured sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 from plasma samples obtained 3 months after discharge. OUTCOMES: The associations of biomarkers with longitudinal kidney disease incidence and progression, heart failure, and death were evaluated. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 1,474 participants with plasma biomarker measurements, 19% had kidney disease progression, 14% had later heart failure, and 21% died during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. For the kidney outcome, the adjusted HRs (AHRs) per doubling in concentration were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.2-3.9) for sTNFR1 and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.5) for sTNFR2. AKI during the index hospitalization did not modify the association between biomarkers and kidney events. For heart failure, the AHRs per doubling in concentration were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.5) for sTNFR1 and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-2.0) for sTNFR2. For mortality, the AHRs were 3.3 (95% CI, 2.5-4.3) for sTNFR1 and 2.5 (95% CI, 2.0-3.1) for sTNFR2. The findings in ARID were qualitatively similar in terms of the magnitude of association between biomarkers and outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Different biomarker platforms and AKI definitions; limited generalizability to other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 measured 3 months after hospital discharge were independently associated with clinical events regardless of AKI status during the index admission. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 may assist with the risk stratification of patients during follow-up.

Biomarkers During Recovery From AKI and Prediction of Long-term Reductions in Estimated GFR.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The effects of acute kidney injury (AKI) on long-term kidney function, cardiovascular disease, and mortality are well documented. We aimed to identify biomarkers for the estimation of risk of new or worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD) following AKI. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Adults from a single clinical center who experienced AKI between May 2013 and May 2016 and survived until 3 years after the hospitalization during which AKI occurred. Participants included those with and without preexisting CKD. PREDICTORS: Panel of 11 plasma biomarkers measured 3 months after hospitalization. OUTCOME: Kidney disease progression, defined as a≥25% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) combined with worsening CKD stage, assessed 3 years after the occurrence of AKI. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Associations between biomarkers and kidney disease progression were evaluated in multivariable logistic regression models. Importance of predictor variables was assessed by constructing multiple decision trees, with penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression for variable selection used to produce multivariable models. RESULTS: A total of 500 patients were studied. Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor (sTNFR) 1, sTNFR2, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, 3-month eGFR, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio were independently associated with kidney disease progression and were more important than AKI severity or duration. A multivariable model containing sTNFR1, sTNFR2, cystatin C, and eGFR discriminated between those with and without kidney disease progression (area under the curve, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.70-0.83]). Optimizing the cutoff point to maximize utility as a "rule-out" test to identify those at low risk increased the sensitivity of the model to 95% and its negative predictive value to 92%. LIMITATIONS: Lack of external validation cohort. Analyses limited to patients who survived for 3 years after AKI. Mixed population of patients with and without baseline CKD. CONCLUSIONS: A panel of plasma biomarkers measured 3 months after discharge from a hospitalization complicated by AKI provides a potential opportunity to identify patients who are at very low risk of incident or worsening CKD. Further study is required to determine its clinical utility through independent prospective validation.

The effects of acute kidney injury on long-term renal function and proteinuria in a general hospitalised population.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hospitalised patients and is associated with adverse long-term consequences. There is an urgent need to understand these sequelae in general hospitalised patients utilising a prospective cohort-based approach. We aimed to test the feasibility of study methodology prior to commencing a large-scale study and investigate the effects of AKI on chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and proteinuria. METHODS: Pilot study testing novel methodology for remote patient recruitment within a prospective case-control design. 300 cases (hospitalised patients with AKI) and controls (hospitalised patients without AKI) were matched 1:1 for age and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). 70% of cases had AKI stage 1, 16% AKI stage 2 and 14% AKI stage 3. Renal function and proteinuria were measured 3 and 12 months after hospital admission. RESULTS: The study met pre-defined recruitment, withdrawal and matching criteria. Renal function was worse in the AKI group at 3 (eGFR 61 ± 20 vs. 74 ± 23 ml/min/1.73 m(2), p < 0.001) and 12 months (eGFR 64 ± 23 vs. 75 ± 25 ml/min/1.73 m(2), p < 0.001). More cases than controls had CKD progression at 3 months (14 vs. 0.7%, p < 0.001). This difference persisted to 12 months, but there was no significant change between 3 and 12 months. Proteinuria and albuminuria were more prevalent in the AKI group and associated with CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a method of remote patient recruitment which could be employed more widely for prospective observational studies. Even mild AKI is associated with long-term renal dysfunction. Further investigation using this methodology is now underway.

Circulating Levels of Endotrophin Are Prognostic for Long-Term Mortality after AKI.

Background: AKI involves a rapid decrease in kidney function that may be associated with structural damage. Early markers predicting AKI are emerging, but tools to assess patients' long-term health risks after AKI are still lacking. Endotrophin (ETP) is a bioactive molecule released during the formation of collagen type VI. We evaluated the potential of circulating ETP as a prognostic biomarker of adverse outcomes after AKI. Methods: We measured ETP in plasma samples collected 1 year after an episode of AKI, using the PRO-C6 ELISA in 801 patients (393 patients with AKI and 408 controls) from the prospective AKI Risk in Derby (ARID) study (ISRCTN25405995), who were then followed until year 3. Kidney disease progression was defined as ≥25% decline in eGFR combined with a decline in CKD stage. Results: ETP levels were significantly higher in the AKI group compared with controls (P<0.001). In the AKI group, ETP could discriminate patients with kidney disease progression at year 3 (AUC=0.67, P<0.01), whereas eGFR could not (AUC=0.51, P=0.57). In logistic regression including common risk factors, ETP was independently associated with kidney disease progression in patients with AKI (OR=1.10, P<0.01). ETP could discriminate survivors from nonsurvivors at year 3 (AUC=0.64, P<0.01). In a Cox proportional hazards regression for mortality after AKI that included common risk factors, only ETP (HR=1.05; P<0.001) and age (HR=1.06, P<0.01) were retained in the final model. Conclusions: Patients in the AKI group had higher levels of plasma ETP at year 1 as compared with those who had not had AKI. In the AKI group, ETP levels predict kidney disease progression and mortality. Because ETP is a profibrotic molecule, our findings may indicate that ETP identifies patients with active fibrogenesis after AKI, suggestive of long-term renal remodeling, which is associated with patient outcome.

Three-year outcomes after acute kidney injury: results of a prospective parallel group cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Using a prospective study design, we aimed to characterise the effect of acute kidney injury (AKI) on long-term changes in renal function in a general hospital population. PARTICIPANTS: Hospitalised patients with AKI (exposed) and hospitalised patients without AKI (non-exposed), recruited at 3 months after hospital admission. DESIGN: Prospective, matched parallel group cohort study, in which renal function and proteinuria were measured at 3 months, 1 year and 3 years. SETTING: Single UK centre. CLINICAL END POINTS: Clinical end points at 3 years were comparison of the following variables between exposed and non-exposed groups: renal function, prevalence of proteinuria and albuminuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression/development at each time point. CKD progression was defined as a decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥25% associated with a decline in eGFR stage. RESULTS: 300 exposed and non-exposed patients were successfully matched 1:1 for age and baseline renal function; 70% of the exposed group had AKI stage 1. During follow-up, the AKI group had lower eGFR than non-exposed patients at each time point. At 3 years, the mean eGFR was 60.7±21 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the AKI group compared with 68.4±21 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the non-exposed group, p=0.003. CKD development or progression at 3 years occurred in 30 (24.6%) of the AKI group compared with 10 (7.5%) of the non-exposed group, p<0.001. Albuminuria was more common in the AKI group, and increased with AKI severity. Factors independently associated with CKD development/progression after AKI were non-recovery at 90 days, male gender, diabetes and recurrent AKI. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is associated with deterioration in renal function to 3 years, even in an unselected population with predominantly AKI stage 1. Non-recovery from AKI is an important factor determining long-term outcome.

Defining the cause of death in hospitalised patients with acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND: The high mortality rates that follow the onset of acute kidney injury (AKI) are well recognised. However, the mode of death in patients with AKI remains relatively under-studied, particularly in general hospitalised populations who represent the majority of those affected. We sought to describe the primary cause of death in a large group of prospectively identified patients with AKI. METHODS: All patients sustaining AKI at our centre between 1(st) October 2010 and 31(st) October 2011 were identified by real-time, hospital-wide, electronic AKI reporting based on the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) diagnostic criteria. Using this system we are able to generate a prospective database of all AKI cases that includes demographic, outcome and hospital coding data. For those patients that died during hospital admission, cause of death was derived from the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death. RESULTS: During the study period there were 3,930 patients who sustained AKI; 62.0% had AKI stage 1, 20.6% had stage 2 and 17.4% stage 3. In-hospital mortality rate was 21.9% (859 patients). Cause of death could be identified in 93.4% of cases. There were three main disease categories accounting for three quarters of all mortality; sepsis (41.1%), cardiovascular disease (19.2%) and malignancy (12.9%). The major diagnosis leading to sepsis was pneumonia, whilst cardiovascular death was largely a result of heart failure and ischaemic heart disease. AKI was the primary cause of death in only 3% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality associated with AKI remains high, although cause of death is usually concurrent illness. Specific strategies to improve outcomes may therefore need to target not just the management of AKI but also the most relevant co-existing conditions.