Predictive modeling of initiation and delayed mental health contact for depression.

BACKGROUND: Depression is prevalent among Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) Veterans, yet rates of Veteran mental health care utilization remain modest. The current study examined: factors in electronic health records (EHR) associated with lack of treatment initiation and treatment delay; the accuracy of regression and machine learning models to predict initiation of treatment. METHODS: We obtained data from the VA Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW). EHR data were extracted for 127,423 Veterans who deployed to Iraq/Afghanistan after 9/11 with a positive depression screen and a first depression diagnosis between 2001 and 2021. We also obtained 12-month pre-diagnosis and post-diagnosis patient data. Retrospective cohort analysis was employed to test if predictors can reliably differentiate patients who initiated, delayed, or received no mental health treatment associated with their depression diagnosis. RESULTS: 108,457 Veterans with depression, initiated depression-related care (55,492 Veterans delayed treatment beyond one month). Those who were male, without VA disability benefits, with a mild depression diagnosis, and had a history of psychotherapy were less likely to initiate treatment. Among those who initiated care, those with single and mild depression episodes at baseline, with either PTSD or who lacked comorbidities were more likely to delay treatment for depression. A history of mental health treatment, of an anxiety disorder, and a positive depression screen were each related to faster treatment initiation. Classification of patients was modest (ROC AUC = 0.59 95%CI = 0.586-0.602; machine learning F-measure = 0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Having VA disability benefits was the strongest predictor of treatment initiation after a depression diagnosis and a history of mental health treatment was the strongest predictor of delayed initiation of treatment. The complexity of the relationship between VA benefits and history of mental health care with treatment initiation after a depression diagnosis is further discussed. Modest classification accuracy with currently known predictors suggests the need to identify additional predictors of successful depression management.

The divide between daily event appraisal and emotion experience in major depression.

Appraisal theories predict that emotional experiences are tightly linked to context appraisals. However, depressed people tend to perceive a variety of emotional events more negatively and stressfully and their emotional experience has been described as context insensitive. This raises the question: how different is the intensity of context appraisals from related emotion experiences among depressed relative to healthy people? Surprisingly, we do not know how cohesive intensity of context appraisals and emotional experiences are in depression. In this study, we assessed differences in intensity of context appraisals and emotional experiences across 1634 daily events during three days within and between depressed participants (N = 41) and healthy controls (N = 33) using linear mixed models. Models compared intensities of stressfulness and unpleasantness appraisals to the intensity of negative affect, and intensity of pleasantness appraisals to the intensity of positive affect. Our findings partially supported our predictions of lower cohesiveness in depression: while intensities of pleasantness appraisals and positive affect were more alike among control participants, intensities of unpleasantness and stressfulness appraisals were more similar to the intensities of negative affect in the depressed group. Current work suggests that hedonic dysfunction in depression is possibly driven by a loosely tied positive context appraisal-emotion experience process.

Provider reported value and use of virtual resources in extended primary care prior to and during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: A proactive approach to delivering care using virtual resources, while reducing in-person contact, is needed during the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: In the current study we describe pre- to post- COVID-19 pandemic onset related changes in electronic delivery of primary care. METHODS: A longitudinal, pre-post within-subjects design was used. Patient-aligned care team providers from one VA medical center, a primary care annex, and four affiliated community-based outpatient clinics completed both a baseline and follow up survey (N = 62) or the follow-up survey only (N = 85). The follow-up survey contained questions about COVID-19. RESULTS: The majority of providers (88%) reported they would continue virtual care once pandemic restrictions were lifted. Most (83%) felt prepared to transition to virtual care when pandemic restrictions began. Use of My HealtheVet, Telehealth, and mobile apps showed a significant increase (22.7%; 31.1%; 48.5%). Barriers to virtual care included (1) internet connectivity; (2) patients' lack of technology comfort and skills; and (3) technical issues. Main supports to provide virtual care to patients were (1) peers/ colleagues; (2) technology support through help desk; (3) equipment such as laptops and dual screens; (4) being able to use doximety and virtual care manager, and (5) training. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, provider-use and perceptions related to using virtual care improved over time. Providers adapted quickly to providing virtual care during COVID-19 and planned to provide virtual care long-term.

Primary care virtual resource use prior and post COVID-19 pandemic onset.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been a catalyst for rapid uptake of virtual care through the use of virtual health resources (VHR). In the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System, virtual care has been critical to maintaining healthcare access for patients during COVID-19. In the current study we describe primary care patient aligned care team (PACT) VHR use patterns within one VA medical center (i.e., hospital facility and five community-based outpatient clinics) pre- and post-COVID-19 onset. METHODS: VHR provider and patient use data from 106 individual PACTs were extracted monthly between September 2019 to September 2020. Data were extracted from VHA web-based project application and tracking databases. Using longitudinal data, mixed effect models were used to compare pre- and post-COVID onset slopes. RESULTS: Findings highlight an increase in patient users of secure messaging (SM) and telehealth. The rate of utilization among these patients increased for SM but not for telehealth visits or online prescription refill (RxRefill) use. Finally, VetLink Kiosk check ins that are done at in person visits, diminished abruptly after COVID-19 onset. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide a baseline of VHR use at the PACT level after the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and can inform healthcare delivery changes within the VA systems over time. Moreover, this project produced a data extraction blueprint, that is the first of its kind to track VA VHR use leveraging secondary data sources.

Informing Proactive integrated virtual healthcare resource use in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Proactive integrated virtual healthcare resource (VHR) use can improve efficiency, maximize resource capacity for delivering optimal coordinated care and improve patient outcomes. Proactive integrated VHR use is vital for delivering high quality care. Our objectives were to identify proactive integrated VHR use among primary care teams, best practices and targeted implementation strategies to promote proactive integrated VHR use. METHODS: This is a mixed-method descriptive study. We employed a community-based participatory approach to collect data and the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to analyze and contextualize findings. A cross-sectional sample of primary care team members (n = 65) from a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center participated in focus groups, follow-up interviews (n = 16), and respond to self-report surveys. Operational subject matter experts (n = 15) participated in informant interviews. RESULTS: Survey data described current use and factors that influenced singular VHR use and were convergent with qualitative findings. Focus group and interview data described no evidence of proactive integrated VHR use. Differences and similarities were identified between both utilization groups, such as facilitators and barriers, recommendations, patient education and preferred implementation strategies. All groups reported issues around VHR availability knowledge and access and functionality. Participants identified the need for best practices that are specific to care tasks and performance measures. Expert informant interviews identified a list of VHR tools that could be proactively integrated across the healthcare continuum. CONCLUSIONS: Health systems are leveraging technologies to proactively integrate VHR to maximize information exchange, clinical decision support and patient engagement. VHR is critical during global pandemics, such as COVID-19, to maintain access to care coordination and delivery while abiding by public health recommendations. Though recent requirements for reducing contact create an intrinsic motivation, cultural change through education and best practices of proactive integrated use across the healthcare continuum is needed to create a culture of VHR super users.

Emotion regulation and mood brightening in daily life vary with depressive symptom levels.

Naturalistic studies of emotional reactivity in depression have repeatedly found larger decreases in negative affect (NA) among depressed individuals in response to daily positive events. This so-called mood-brightening (MB) effect represents a theoretical and empirical oddity. The current study is a secondary analysis investigating whether the MB effect is moderated by spontaneous use of emotion regulation strategies, which have been implicated in the maintenance and modulation of NA in prior work. Participants (N = 95) representing a large spectrum of depressive symptom severity reported their experiences of NA and the occurrence of positive events in daily life over the course of seven days using the experience sampling method. Our findings replicate and build upon those of prior studies relating to the MB effect in the following ways: (1) we observed the MB effect for specific negative emotions of sadness, anger, anxiety; and (2) we found evidence that the MB effect is moderated by spontaneous use of rumination, distraction, and expressive suppression, which have been shown to enhance or dampen NA. The role of emotion regulation strategies in daily emotional reactivity to pleasant events is discussed.

The role of appraisal in dysphoric affect reactivity to positive laboratory films and daily life events in depression.

Hedonic deficits are linked to protracted dysphoric affect (DA) in depression, a disorder characterised by emotion context insensitivity (ECI). Recent findings from daily life studies contradict the ECI view. This study longitudinally investigated DA across laboratory and daily life contexts and the conditions associated with discrepancies in DA reactivity. Thirty-three healthy controls and 41 adults with major depressive disorder (MDD) provided responses to neutral and positive (a) films viewed in the laboratory and (b) daily events recorded over the course of three days using ecological momentary assessment (EMA) methodology. The current study reports on participants' appraisals of films and events and their subsequent DA, both rated individually after each task and daily event. Despite large group similarities in appraisals of the positive film and life events, MDDs appraised the neutral film and neutral life events as less important (film: d = .58; event: η2 = .07) and less pleasant (film: d = .56; event: η2 = .18) relative to controls. While MDDs reported higher DA both in the laboratory and in daily life, they experienced larger decreases in DA during positive life events (B = -.77, SE = .28, t(73) = -2.70, p = .009), but not in response to the positive film relative to controls. Results indicate that higher pleasantness appraisals in daily life predicted larger decreases in DA among MDDs than controls (B = -.24, SE = .06, t(73) = -4.10, p < .001). Finally, lower pleasantness appraisals of a standardised neutral film predicted larger DA decreases among MDDs during positive life events (B = 1.28, SE = .46, t(73) = 2.77, p = .006). The implications of valence and relevance of context for DA reactivity and mood repair are discussed.

Post-deployment Mental Health Screening: A Systematic Review of Current Evidence and Future Directions.

Population-based post-deployment screening programs within the Departments of Defense and Veterans Affairs have been implemented to assess for mental health conditions and traumatic brain injury. The purpose of this paper is to systematically review the literature on post-deployment screening within this context and evaluate evidence compared to commonly accepted screening implementation criteria. Findings reflected highly variable psychometric properties of the various screens, variable treatment referral rates following screening, low to moderate treatment initiation rates following screening, and no information on treatment completion or long-term outcomes following screening. In sum, the evidence supporting population based post-deployment screening is inconclusive. Implications are discussed.

Positive autobiographical memory deficits in youth with depression histories and their never-depressed siblings.

OBJECTIVES: Impaired positive autobiographical memory (AM) is closely linked to emotional disorders. AM impairments are often found in depressed adults and may be related to the difficulties such persons have in regulating their dysphoric mood. By contrast, less is known about AM disturbances among adolescents, or about the functional relationship of AM disturbances to early-onset depression. DESIGN: A high-risk family design served to compare four groups of youth who differed in depression histories and familial depression risk. METHODS: Thirty-one currently depressed probands, 185 remitted probands, 204 never-depressed siblings of probands, and 180 healthy control youth were induced into a negative mood prior to recalling positive AMs via a novel memory elicitation procedure. Several positive AM characteristics were assessed. RESULTS: Relative to control youth, unaffected siblings and probands exhibited consistently impaired positive AMs. Moreover, we also found some evidence that probands were more impaired than siblings, who were in turn more impaired than controls, consistent with a gradient effect. CONCLUSIONS: Positive AM disturbances may not only precede the onset of depression in vulnerable youth, but also continue to persist after remission of a depressive episode. Clinical and basic research implications of the findings are discussed. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Positive AM impairments may be trait-like, persist in the euthymic phase of depression, and may serve as a risk marker for early-onset depression among vulnerable adolescents. Disturbances in positive AM may negatively impact the mood-regulatory functions of positive memory recall and contribute to persistent sadness and anhedonia, which are core features of depression. Our sample of currently depressed youth was relatively small, tempering our conclusions. Although we collected data on some important covariates (e.g., socioeconomic status), we lacked information on other relevant variables such as youths' executive functioning or IQ.

Sleep quality in healthy and mood-disordered persons predicts daily life emotional reactivity.

Disordered sleep has been linked to impaired emotional functioning in healthy and depressed individuals. Little is known, however, about how chronic sleep problems influence emotional reactivity in everyday life. Participants with major or minor unipolar depressive disorder (n = 60) and healthy controls (n = 35) reported on sleep and emotional responses to daily life events using a computerised Experience Sampling Method. We examined whether impaired sleep quality influenced emotional reactivity to daily events, and if this relationship was altered by unipolar mood disorders. Among healthy individuals, sleep difficulties were associated with enhanced negative affect (NA) to unpleasant events and a dulled response to neutral events. However, among mood-disordered persons, sleep difficulties were associated with higher NA across all types of everyday life events. Impaired sleep quality differentially affects daily life emotional reactions as a function of depression.

Cardiovascular recovery from psychological and physiological challenge and risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Exaggerated cardiovascular (CV) reactivity to laboratory challenge has been shown to predict future CV morbidity and mortality. CV recovery has been less studied and has yielded inconsistent findings, possibly due to the presence of moderators. Reviews on the relationship between CV recovery and CV outcomes have been limited to cross-sectional studies and have not considered methodological factors. We performed a comprehensive meta-analytic review of the prospective literature investigating CV recovery to physical and psychological challenge and adverse CV outcomes. METHODS: We searched PsycINFO and PubMed for prospective studies investigating the relationship between CV recovery and adverse CV outcomes. Studies were coded for variables of interest and for effect sizes. We conducted a random-effects weighted meta-analysis. Moderators were examined with analysis of variance-analog and meta-regression analyses. RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria (n = 125,386). Impaired recovery from a challenge predicted adverse CV outcomes (summary effect, r = 0.17, p < .001). Physical challenge was associated with larger predictive effects than psychological challenge. Moderator analyses revealed that recovery measured at 1 minute postexercise, passive recovery, use of mortality as an outcome measure, and older sample age were associated with larger effects. CONCLUSIONS: Poor recovery from laboratory challenges predicts adverse CV outcomes, with recovery from exercise serving as a particularly strong predictor of CV outcomes. The overall effect size for recovery and CV outcomes is similar to that observed for CV reactivity and suggests that the study of recovery may have incremental value for understanding adverse CV outcomes.

Mental health treatment utilization patterns among 108,457 Afghanistan and Iraq veterans with depression.

People with depression often underutilize mental health care. This study was conceived as a first step toward a clinical decision support tool that helps identify patients who are at higher risk of underutilizing care. The primary goals were to (a) describe treatment utilization patterns, early termination, and return to care; (b) identify factors associated with early termination of treatment; and (c) evaluate the accuracy of regression models to predict early termination. These goals were evaluated in a retrospective cohort analysis of 108,457 U.S. veterans who received care from the Veterans Health Administration between 2001 and 2021. Our final sample was 16.5% female with an average age of 34.5. Veterans were included if they had a depression diagnosis, a positive depression screen, and received general health care services at least a year before and after their depression diagnosis. Using treatment quality guidelines, the threshold for treatment underutilization was defined as receiving fewer than four psychotherapy sessions or less than 84 days of antidepressants. Over one fifth of veterans (21.6%) received less than the minimally recommended care for depression. The odds of underutilizing treatment increased with lack of Veterans Administration benefits, male gender, racial/ethnic minority status, and having received mental health treatment in the past (adjusted OR > 1.1). Posttraumatic stress disorder comorbidity correlated with increased depression treatment utilization (adjusted OR < .9). Models with demographic and clinical information from medical records performed modestly in classifying patients who underutilized depression treatment (area under the curve = 0.595, 95% CI [0.588, 0.603]). Most veterans in this cohort received at least the minimum recommended treatment for depression. To improve the prediction of underutilization, patient factors associated with treatment underutilization likely need to be supplemented by additional clinical information. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Multisite Agricultural Veterans Affairs Farming and Recovery Mental Health Services (VA FARMS) Pilot Program: Protocol for a Responsive Mixed Methods Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: Veterans Affairs Farming and Recovery Mental Health Services (VA FARMS) is an innovative pilot program to provide supportive resources for veterans with interests in agricultural vocations. Implemented at 10 pilot sites, VA FARMS will provide mental health services and resources for veterans while supporting training in gardening and agriculture. As each pilot site project has unique goals, outreach strategies, and implementation efforts based on the local environment and veteran population, evaluating the pilot program provides a unique challenge for evaluators. This paper describes the protocol to evaluate VA FARMS, which was specifically designed to enable site variation by providing both site-specific and cross-site understanding of site implementation processes and outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this paper are to (1) describe the protocol used for evaluating VA FARMS, as an innovative Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) agriculturally based, mental health, and employment pilot program serving veterans at 10 pilot sites across the Veterans Health Administration enterprise; and (2) provide guidance to other evaluators assessing innovative programs. METHODS: This evaluation uses the context, inputs, process, product (CIPP) model, which evaluates a program's content and implementation to identify strengths and areas for improvement. Data collection will use a concurrent mixed methods approach. Quantitative data collection will involve quarterly program surveys, as well as three individual veteran participant surveys administered upon the veteran's entrance and exit of the pilot program and 3 months postexit. Quantitative data will include baseline descriptive statistics and follow-up statistics on veteran health care utilization, health care status, and agriculture employment status. Qualitative data collection will include participant observation at each pilot site, and interviews with participants, staff, and community stakeholders. Qualitative data will provide insights about pilot program implementation processes, veterans' experiences, and short-term participation outcomes. RESULTS: Evaluation efforts began in December 2018 and are ongoing. Between October 2018 and September 2020, 494 veterans had enrolled in VA FARMS and 1326 veterans were reached through program activities such as demonstrations, informational presentations, and town-hall discussions. A total of 1623 community members and 655 VA employees were similarly reached by VA FARMS programming during that time. Data were collected between October 2018 and September 2020 in the form of 336 veteran surveys, 30 veteran interviews, 27 staff interviews, and 11 community partner interviews. Data analysis is expected to be completed by October 2022. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation protocol will provide guidance to other evaluators assessing innovative programs. In its application to the VA FARMS pilot, the evaluation aims to add to existing literature on nature-based therapies and the rehabilitation outcomes of agricultural training programs for veterans. Results will provide programmatic insights on the implementation of pilot programs, along with needed improvements and modifications for the future expansion of VA FARMS and other veteran-focused agricultural programs. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/40496.

Assessment of Outcome-Based Measures of Depression Care Quality in Veterans Health Administration Facilities.

To inform the potential use of patient-reported depression symptom outcomes as measures of care quality, this study collected and analyzed longitudinal Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9) scores among 1,638 patients who screened positive for major depression according to a PHQ9 ≥ 10 across 29 Department of Veterans Affairs facilities. The study found baseline PHQ9, prior mental health visits, physical functioning, and treatment expectancy were consistently associated with subsequent PHQ9 outcomes. No facilities outperformed any others on PHQ9 scores at the 6-month primary endpoint, and the corresponding intra-class coefficient was ≤ .01 for the entire sample (n = 1,214) and 0.03 for the subgroup of patients with new depression episodes (n = 629). Measures of antidepressant receipt, psychotherapy, or treatment intensification were not associated with 6-month PHQ9 scores. PHQ9 outcomes are therefore unlikely to be useful as quality indicators for VA healthcare facilities due to low inter-facility variation, and new care process measures are needed to inform care for patients with chronic depression prevalent in this sample.

The Value of Extracting Clinician-Recorded Affect for Advancing Clinical Research on Depression: Proof-of-Concept Study Applying Natural Language Processing to Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Affective characteristics are associated with depression severity, course, and prognosis. Patients' affect captured by clinicians during sessions may provide a rich source of information that more naturally aligns with the depression course and patient-desired depression outcomes. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we propose an information extraction vocabulary used to pilot the feasibility and reliability of identifying clinician-recorded patient affective states in clinical notes from electronic health records. METHODS: Affect and mood were annotated in 147 clinical notes of 109 patients by 2 independent coders across 3 pilots. Intercoder discrepancies were settled by a third coder. This reference annotation set was used to test a proof-of-concept natural language processing (NLP) system using a named entity recognition approach. RESULTS: Concepts were frequently addressed in templated format and free text in clinical notes. Annotated data demonstrated that affective characteristics were identified in 87.8% (129/147) of the notes, while mood was identified in 97.3% (143/147) of the notes. The intercoder reliability was consistently good across the pilots (interannotator agreement [IAA] >70%). The final NLP system showed good reliability with the final reference annotation set (mood IAA=85.8%; affect IAA=80.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Affect and mood can be reliably identified in clinician reports and are good targets for NLP. We discuss several next steps to expand on this proof of concept and the value of this research for depression clinical research.

Future Well-Being Among U.S. Youth Who Attempted Suicide and Survived.

To what extent does a suicide attempt impair a person's future well-being? We estimated the prevalence of future well-being (FWB) among suicide attempt survivors using a nationally representative sample of 15,170 youths. Suicide attempt survivors were classified as having high FWB if they reported (a) a suicide attempt at Wave I, (b) no suicidal ideation or attempts over the past year at Wave III (7 years after), and (c) a well-being profile at or above the top quartile of nonsuicidal peers. Seventy-five of 574 suicide attempt survivors (∼13%) met criteria for FWB at Wave III, compared to 26% of nonsuicidal peers. Wave I well-being levels, not depressive symptoms, predicted the likelihood of FWB at Wave III (OR = 1.23, 95% CI [1.05, 1.44], p < .05). In conclusion, a nonfatal suicide attempt reduced but did not preclude FWB in a large national sample. The observation that a segment of the population of suicide attempt survivors achieves FWB carries implications for the prognosis of suicidal behavior and the value of incorporating well-being into investigations of suicide-related phenomena.

Preliminary Evidence on the Association of Complementary and Integrative Health Care Program Participation and Medical Cost in Veterans.

INTRODUCTION: Transforming Health and Resilience through Integration of Values-based Experiences (THRIVE) is a complimentary and integrative health program. THRIVE is delivered through shared medical appointments where participants engage in provider-led education and group discussion on wellness-related topics. THRIVE has been associated with improved patient-reported outcomes in a female veteran cohort. This quality improvement study evaluated the association between THRIVE participation and Veterans Health Administration (VHA) healthcare costs across a 1 year period. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort study design (n = 184) used VHA administrative data to estimate the cost difference between 1 year pre- and post-THRIVE participation. The 1 year post-cost of the THRIVE cohort was then compared to the 1 year cost of a quasi-experimental waitlist control group (n = 156). Data sources included VHA administrative and electronic health records. RESULTS: Patients were roughly 51 years old, were typically White/Caucasian, and had a service priority level representing catastrophic disability. The adjusted post-THRIVE cost was $26,291 [95% confidence interval (CI): $23,014-29,015]; $1,720 higher than the previous year's cost but was not statistically significant (P = 0.289). However, a comparison between the THRIVE cohort and a group of waitlist THRIVE patients (n = 156) the intervention group on average was $8,108 more than the waitlist group (95% CI: $3,194-14,005; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, data analysis of veterans' annual healthcare cost trajectories were inconclusive. This preliminary study produced mixed results requiring more research with larger samples and randomized control trial methodology. Evidence of whether the THRIVE intervention can maintain cost effectiveness while maintaining its supported evidence of healthcare quality is needed.

Daily Affective Dynamics Predict Depression Symptom Trajectories Among Adults with Major and Minor Depression.

Affective dynamics have been increasingly recognized as important indicators of emotional health and well-being. Depression has been associated with altered affective dynamics, but little is known about how daily life affective dynamics predict depression's naturalistic course. We investigated positive and negative affective dynamics (e.g., inertia, variability, and instability) among adults with depressive disorders (N = 60) and healthy controls (N = 38) in both cross-sectional and prospective analyses predicting weekly depression symptoms over 6 months. Relative to controls, depressed individuals showed elevated daily negative affect (NA) and NA variability along with decreased positive affect (PA). However, groups did not significantly differ on other affective dynamic indices. Based on multivariate prospective analyses of depressed individuals (follow-up N = 36), higher daily NA and lower daily PA were independently associated with higher and average weekly depressive symptom severity over the subsequent 6 months. Exploratory analyses of depression symptom trajectory shape revealed that higher NA and PA variability, NA inertia, and NA instability all predicted an initial increase and eventual return to higher depression symptom levels over the 6-month follow-up period. Daily life affective dynamics may have utility for predicting the naturalistic course of depression, which may help guide interventions targeting affective dynamics in vulnerable individuals.