Predictors of accidents in people with mild cognitive impairment, mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease and healthy controls in simulated driving.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the driving variables that predict accident probability in mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy older control drivers in simulated driving. To compare the three groups in mean performance and in frequency of scores exceeding 1.5 SD from the mean. METHODS/DESIGN: Participants were 37 drivers with MCI, 16 drivers with AD, and 21 control drivers over the age of 52. Driving measures were derived from four rural driving conditions: moderate traffic without and with distraction and high traffic without and with distraction. The measures were z-transformed based on the performance of 90 control drivers of different ages. Two unexpected incidents occurred per condition, requiring the sudden breaking to avoid an accident. RESULTS: Drivers with AD showed significantly lower average speed, speed variability, greater headway distance, headway variability and average reaction time (RT) than control drivers. Drivers with MCI showed significantly lower average speed, greater headway distance and average RT than control drivers in the two conditions of distraction. No differences were found in accident probability. Drivers with AD had more deviant scores than both control drivers and drivers with MCI in most comparisons. Predictors of accident probability were average RT, speed variability and lateral position variability but MCI and AD status were not significant predictors in any of the regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Despite significant differences in performance, drivers with MCI and AD did not differ in accident probability from control drivers. An individualized approach of examining individual driving performance is recommended.

The usefulness of artificial intelligence for safety assessment of different transport modes.

Recent research in transport safety focuses on the processing of large amounts of available data by means of intelligent systems, in order to decrease the number of accidents for transportation users. Several Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications have been developed to address safety problems and improve efficiency of transportation systems. However exchange of knowledge between transport modes has been limited. This paper reviews the ML and AI methods used in different transport modes (road, rail, maritime and aviation) to address safety problems, in order to identify good practices and experiences that can be transferable between transport modes. The methods examined include statistical and econometric methods, algorithmic approaches, classification and clustering methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) as well as optimization and dimension reduction techniques. Our research reveals the increasing interest of transportation researchers and practitioners in AI applications for crash prediction, incident/failure detection, pattern identification, driver/operator or route assistance, as well as optimization problems. The most popular and efficient methods used in all transport modes are ANN, SVM, Hidden Markov Models and Bayesian models. The type of the analytical technique is mainly driven by the purpose of the safety analysis performed. Finally, a wider variety of AI and ML methodologies is observed in road transport mode, which also appears to concentrate a higher, and constantly increasing, number of studies compared to the other modes.

"I did not see that coming": A latent variable structural equation model for understanding the effect of road predictability on crashes along horizontal curves.

Driver anticipation plays a crucial role in crashes along horizontal curves. Anticipation is related to road predictability and can be influenced by roadway geometric design. Therefore, it is essential to understand which geometric design elements can influence anticipation and cause the road to be (un)predictable. This exercise, however, is not straightforward because anticipation is individual-specific whereas road geometric design is location-specific; anticipation is latent and measuring it may not be trivial; anticipation may have several stages from the preceding tangent until the midst of the curve; and not all drivers anticipate in the same way and thus there may well be unobserved heterogeneity in the effect of anticipation on crash risk. Despite methodological advancements in crash risk modelling, there is no econometric model that can adequately explain the above complexities. This study aims to fill this gap by developing an econometric model with a new latent variable, named 'predictability' that is measured by individual-specific driving behaviour indicators and predicted by location-specific road geometric factors. The model is specified with random parameters to account for unobserved heterogeneity and is empirically tested by a unique dataset including detailed geometric design and driver behaviour data obtained for 156 curves in the Netherlands. Results indicate that higher exposure and uphill vertical grade are associated with increased likelihood of vehicle crashes along horizontal curves, whereas adequate superelevation and higher predictability are associated with decreased likelihood of those crashes. Pavement friction influences this likelihood too but it has varied effects. Road predictability is influenced by the differences in angle of horizontal curves, vertical grades, and width of consecutive road segments.

Road-safety-II: Opportunities and barriers for an enhanced road safety vision.

Road safety research is largely focused on prediction and prevention of technical, human or organisational failures that may result in critical conflicts or crashes. Indicators of traffic risk aim to capture the passage to unsafe states. However, research in other industries has shown that it is meaningful to analyse safety along the whole spectrum of behaviours. Knowing the causes and patterns of "successful" interactions, rather than failures, could give new insights on the complexity of the system and the adaptability and resilience of its users in handling the inherent risks. The concept is known as Safety-II and has been extensively explored in the aviation, healthcare and process engineering domains. In this paper, we explore a new Safety-II paradigm for road safety research. We briefly review Safety-II applications in other sectors. We then present a Safety-II model for road safety, by means of an inverse version of Hyden's "safety pyramid". Furthermore, we discuss a number of key road safety goals, theories, analysis methods and data sources and map them into a tentative taxonomy of Safety-I and Safety-II applications. It is concluded that there can be opportunities and benefits from adopting this new mindset, in order to complement existing approaches.

Towards common ethical and safe 'behaviour' standards for automated vehicles.

Automated vehicles (AVs) aim to dramatically improve traffic safety by reducing or eliminating human error, which remains the leading cause of road crashes. However, commonly accepted standards for the 'safe driving behaviour of machines' are pending and urgently needed. Unless a common understanding of safety as a design value is achieved, different manufacturers' driving styles may emerge, resulting in inconsistent, unpredictable and potentially unsafe 'behaviour' of AVs in certain situations. This paper aims to explore the main gaps and challenges towards establishing shared safety standards for the 'behaviour' of AVs, and contribute to their responsible traffic integration, by reviewing the state-of-the-art on AV safety in the core relevant disciplines: ethics of technology, safety science (engineering & human factors), and standardisation. The ethical and safety aspects investigated include the users' perception of AV safety, the ethical trade-offs in critical decision-making contexts, the pertinence of data-driven approaches for AVs to mimic human behaviour, and the responsibilities of various actors. Moreover, the paper reviews the current safety patterns, metrics (surrogate measures of safety - SMoS) and their thresholds introduced in existing research for three use cases: mixed traffic of AV and conventional vehicles, AV interaction with pedestrians and cyclists, and transition of control from machine to human driver. The results reveal several knowledge gaps within each discipline and highlights the lack of common understanding of safety across disciplines. On the basis of the results, the paper proposes a framework for further research on AV safety, identifying concrete opportunities for interdisciplinary research, with common goals and methodologies, and explicitly indicating the path for transfer of knowledge between sectors.

Prediction of rear-end conflict frequency using multiple-location traffic parameters.

Traffic conflicts are heavily correlated with traffic collisions and may provide insightful information on the failure mechanism and factors that contribute more towards a collision. Although proactive traffic management systems have been supported heavily in the research community, and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are soon to become a reality, analyses are concentrated on very specific environments using aggregated data. This study aims at investigating -for the first time- rear-end conflict frequency in an urban network level using vehicle-to-vehicle interactions and at correlating frequency with the corresponding network traffic state. The Time-To-Collision (TTC) and Deceleration Rate to Avoid Crash (DRAC) metrics are utilized to estimate conflict frequency on the current network situation, as well as on scenarios including AV characteristics. Three critical conflict points are defined, according to TTC and DRAC thresholds. After extracting conflicts, data are fitted into Zero-inflated and also traditional Negative Binomial models, as well as quasi-Poisson models, while controlling for endogeneity, in order to investigate contributory factors of conflict frequency. Results demonstrate that conflict counts are significantly higher in congested traffic and that high variations in speed increase conflicts. Nevertheless, a comparison with simulated AV traffic and the use of more surrogate safety indicators could provide more insight into the relationship between traffic state and traffic conflicts in the near future.

Transport safety and human factors in the era of automation: What can transport modes learn from each other?

One of the main aims of introducing automation in transport is to improve safety by reducing or eliminating human errors; it is often argued however that this may induce new types of errors. There is different level of maturity with automation in different transport modes (road, aviation, maritime and rail), however no systematic research has been conducted on the lessons learned in different sectors, so that they can be exploited for the design of safer automated systems. The aim of this paper is to review the impact of key human factors on the safety of automated transport systems, with focus on relevant experiences from different transport sectors. A systematic literature review is carried out on the following topics: the level of trust in automation - in particular the impact of mis-aligned trust, i.e. mistrust vs overreliance, the resulting impact on operator situation awareness (SA), the implications for takeover control from machine to human, and the role of experience and training on using automated transport systems. The results revealed several areas where experiences from the aviation and road domain can be transferable to other sectors. Experiences from maritime and rail transport, although limited, tend to confirm the general patterns. Remarkably, in the road sector where higher levels of automation are only recently introduced, there are clearer and more quantitative approaches to human factors, while other sectors focus only on mental modes. Other sectors could use similar approaches to define their own context-specific metrics. The paper makes a synthesis of key messages on automation safety in different transport sectors, and presents an assessment of their transferability.

Review and ranking of crash risk factors related to the road infrastructure.

The objective of this paper is the review and comparative assessment of infrastructure related crash risk factors, with the explicit purpose of ranking them based on how detrimental they are towards road safety (i.e. crash risk, frequency and severity). This analysis was carried out within the SafetyCube project, which aimed to identify and quantify the effects of risk factors and measures related to behaviour, infrastructure or vehicles, and integrate the results in an innovative road safety Decision Support System (DSS). The evaluation was conducted by examining studies from the existing literature. These were selected and analysed using a specifically designed common methodology. Infrastructure risk factors were structured in a hierarchical taxonomy of 10 areas with several risk factors in each area (59 specific risk factors in total), examples include: alignment features (e.g. horizontal-vertical alignment deficiencies), cross-section characteristics (e.g. superelevation, lanes, median and shoulder deficiencies), road surface deficiencies, workzones, junction deficiencies (interchange and at-grade) etc. Consultation with infrastructure stakeholders (international organisations, road authorities, etc.) took place in dedicated workshops to identify user needs for the DSS, as well as "hot topics" of particular importance. The following analysis methodology was applied to each infrastructure risk factor: (i) A search for relevant international literature, (ii) Selection of studies on the basis of rigorous criteria, (iii) Analysis of studies in terms of design, methods and limitations, (iv) Synthesis of findings - and meta-analysis, when feasible. In total 243 recent and high quality studies were selected and analysed. Synthesis of results was made through 39 'Synopses' (including 4 original meta-analyses) on individual risk factors or groups of risk factors. This allowed the ranking of infrastructure risk factors into three groups: risky (11 risk factors), probably risky (18 risk factors), and unclear (7 risk factors).

The European road safety decision support system on risks and measures.

The European Road Safety Decision Support System (roadsafety-dss.eu) is an innovative system providing the available evidence on a broad range of road risks and possible countermeasures. This paper describes the scientific basis of the DSS. The structure underlying the DSS consists of (1) a taxonomy identifying risk factors and measures and linking them to each other, (2) a repository of studies, and (3) synopses summarizing the effects estimated in the literature for each risk factor and measure, and (4) an economic efficiency evaluation instrument (E3-calculator). The DSS is implemented in a modern web-based tool with a highly ergonomic interface, allowing users to get a quick overview or go deeper into the results of single studies according to their own needs.

A systematic cost-benefit analysis of 29 road safety measures.

Economic evaluations of road safety measures are only rarely published in the scholarly literature. We collected and (re-)analyzed evidence in order to conduct cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) for 29 road safety measures. The information on crash costs was based on data from a survey in European countries. We applied a systematic procedure including corrections for inflation and Purchasing Power Parity in order to express all the monetary information in the same units (EUR, 2015). Cost-benefit analyses were done for measures with favorable estimated effects on road safety and for which relevant information on costs could be found. Results were assessed in terms of benefit-to-cost ratios and net present value. In order to account for some uncertainties, we carried out sensitivity analyses based on varying assumptions for costs of measures and measure effectiveness. Moreover we defined some combinations used as best case and worst case scenarios. In the best estimate scenario, 25 measures turn out to be cost-effective. 4 measures (road lighting, automatic barriers installation, area wide traffic calming and mandatory eyesight tests) are not cost-effective according to this scenario. In total, 14 measures remain cost-effective throughout all scenarios, whereas 10 other measures switch from cost-effective in the best case scenario to not cost-effective in the worst case scenario. For three measures insufficient information is available to calculate all scenarios. Two measures (automatic barriers installation and area wide traffic calming) even in the best case do not become cost-effective. Inherent uncertainties tend to be present in the underlying data on costs of measures, effects and target groups. Results of CBAs are not necessarily generally valid or directly transferable to other settings.

How many crashes are caused by driver interaction with passengers? A meta-analysis approach.

INTRODUCTION: Conversation and other interactions with passengers while driving induce a level of distraction to the person driving. METHOD: This paper conducts a qualitative literature review on the effect of passenger interaction on road safety and then extends it by using meta-analysis techniques. RESULTS: The literature review indicates that the distraction due to passengers is a very frequent risk factor, with detrimental effects to various driving behavior and safety measures (e.g., slower reaction times to events, increased severity of injuries in crashes), associated with non-negligible proportions of crashes. Particular issues concern the effect of passenger age (children, teenagers) on which the literature is inconclusive. Existing studies vary considerably in terms of study methods and outcome measures. Nevertheless, a meta-analysis could be carried out regarding the proportion of crashes caused by this distraction factor. The selection of studies for the meta-analysis was based on a rigorous method including specific study selection criteria. The findings of the random-effects meta-analyses that were carried out showed that driver interaction with passengers causes a non-negligible proportion of road crashes, namely 3.55% of crashes regardless of the age of the passengers and 3.85% when child and teen passengers are excluded. Both meta-estimates were statistically significant, revealing the need for further research, especially considering the role of passenger age. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Stakeholders could make good estimates on future crash numbers and causes and take action in order to counter the effects of passenger interaction.

Multilevel modelling for the regional effect of enforcement on road accidents.

This paper investigates the effect of the intensification of Police enforcement on the number of road accidents at national and regional level in Greece, focusing on one of the most important road safety violations: drinking-and-driving. Multilevel negative binomial models are developed to describe the effect of the intensification of alcohol enforcement on the reduction of road accidents in different regions of Greece. Moreover, two approaches are explored as far as regional clustering is concerned: the first one concerns an ad hoc geographical clustering and the second one is based on the results of mathematical cluster analysis through demographic, transport and road safety characteristics. Results indicate that there are significant spatial dependences among road accidents and enforcement. Additionally, it is shown that these dependences are more efficiently interpreted when regions are determined on the basis of qualitative similarities than on the basis of geographical adjacency.

Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

Road casualties and enforcement: distributional assumptions of serially correlated count data.

OBJECTIVE: Road safety data are often in the form of counts and usually temporally correlated. The objective of this research is to investigate the distributional assumptions of road safety data in the presence of temporal correlation. METHODS: Using the generalized linear model framework, four distributional assumptions are considered: normal, Poisson, quasi-Poisson and negative binomial, and appropriate models are estimated. Monthly casualty and police enforcement data from Greece for a period of six years (January 1998-December 2003) have been used. The developed models include sinusoidal latent terms to capture the temporal serial correlation of observations. Several statistical goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests have been performed for the results of the estimated models, and the predictive capabilities of the models are investigated. RESULTS: The residuals of the quasi-Poisson and negative binomial models do not show any serial correlation. The signs of the estimated coefficients for all models are consistent and intuitive. In particular, a negative coefficient value for the number of breath alcohol controls indicates that the number of persons killed and seriously injured decreases as the intensity of breath alcohol controls increases. The Poisson model fails to capture the overdispersion in the data, thus underestimating the standard errors of the estimated coefficients. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the quasi-Poisson and negative binomial outperform the normal and Poisson models in this application. The findings of this research demonstrate a clear link between the intensification of police enforcement and the reduction of traffic accident casualties. In particular, an increase in the number of breath alcohol controls in Greece after 1998 contributed to a reduction in the number of persons killed and seriously injured from traffic accidents.

Effects of driver nationality and road characteristics on accident fault risk.

This paper investigates the combined effect of driver nationality and several road characteristics (area type, at or not at junction, lighting conditions) on accident fault risk. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident relative fault risk rates under induced exposure assumptions. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and higher-order effects within three or more variable groups. The examination of the second-order interaction among the accident fault risks of various driver nationalities at or not at junction was found to be significant. On the contrary, the respective combined effects of area type and lighting conditions were found to be non-significant. It was also shown that roadway features do not affect accident fault risk in a combined way. Results clearly indicate that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. Moreover, foreign nationalities corresponding to permanent residents (i.e. Greeks and Albanians) appear to be at lower fault risk compared to foreign nationalities corresponding to tourists and visitors (e.g. EU Nationals). The effects of the various road characteristics do not modify these general trends.

Accident risk of foreign drivers in various road environments.

INTRODUCTION: This paper reports on the accident risk of foreign and native drivers in various road environments in Greece. In particular, the analysis aims to determine the combined effect of driver nationality, area type (inside/outside urban area), junction (yes/no), and lighting conditions (day/night) on accident fault risk. METHODS: Data from the national accident database of Greece are used in a hierarchical log-linear analysis. The induced exposure technique is applied due to the lack of exposure data. Estimated and observed odds ratios are then examined for the quantification of the various effects in terms of relative risk. RESULTS: The initial examination of a saturated model leads to the rejection of all three- and higher-order effects within variables, without providing an adequate fit to the data. On the contrary, a non-saturated second-order model presents a very satisfactory overall fit. The examination of single and combined effects indicates that the most significant effect on accident risk rises from the presence of foreign drivers at junctions. CONCLUSIONS: Results confirm that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. However, immigrant permanent residents appear to have a lower risk compared to tourists, regardless of the road environment.

Meta-analysis of the effect of road work zones on crash occurrence.

There is strong evidence that work zones pose increased risk of crashes and injuries. The two most common risk factors associated with increased crash frequencies are work zone duration and length. However, relevant research on the topic is relatively limited. For that reason, this paper presents formal meta-analyses of studies that have estimated the relationship between the number of crashes and work zone duration and length, in order to provide overall estimates of those effects on crash frequencies. All studies presented in this paper are crash prediction models with similar specifications. According to the meta-analyses and after correcting for publication bias when it was considered appropriate, the summary estimates of regression coefficients were found to be 0.1703 for duration and 0.862 for length. These effects were significant for length but not for duration. However, the overall estimate of duration was significant before correcting for publication bias. Separate meta-analyses on the studies examining both duration and length was also carried out in order to have rough estimates of the combined effects. The estimate of duration was found to be 0.953, while for length was 0.847. Similar to previous meta-analyses the effect of duration after correcting for publication bias is not significant, while the effect of length was significant at a 95% level. Meta-regression findings indicate that the main factors influencing the overall estimates of the beta coefficients are study year and region for duration and study year and model specification for length.

Mild Cognitive Impairment and driving: Does in-vehicle distraction affect driving performance?

OBJECTIVES: In-vehicle distraction is considered to be an important cause of road accidents. Drivers with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), because of their attenuated cognitive resources, may be vulnerable to the effects of distraction; however, previous relevant research is lacking. The main objective of the current study was to explore the effect of in-vehicle distraction on the driving performance of MCI patients, by assessing their reaction time at unexpected incidents and accident probability. METHODS: Thirteen patients with MCI (age: 64.5±7.2) and 12 cognitively intact individuals (age: 60.0±7.7), all active drivers were introduced in the study. The driving simulator experiment included three distraction conditions: (a) undistracted driving, (b) conversing with passenger and (c) conversing through a hand-held mobile phone. RESULTS: The mixed ANOVA models revealed a greater effect of distraction on MCI patients. Specifically, the use of mobile phone induced a more pronounced impact on reaction time and accident probability in the group of patients, as compared to healthy controls. On the other hand, in the driving condition "conversing with passenger" the interaction effects regarding reaction time and accident probability were not significant. Notably, the aforementioned findings concerning the MCI patients in the case of the mobile phone were observed despite the effort of the drivers to apply a compensatory strategy by reducing significantly their speed in this driving condition. CONCLUSION: Overall, the current findings indicate, for the first time, that a common driving practice, such as the use of mobile phone, may have a detrimental impact on the driving performance of individuals with MCI.

Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure.

In this paper, an integrated methodology for the analysis of pedestrian behaviour and exposure is proposed, allowing to identify and quantify the effect of pedestrian behaviour, road and traffic characteristics on pedestrian risk exposure, for each pedestrian and for populations of pedestrians. The paper builds on existing research on pedestrian exposure, namely the Routledge microscopic indicator, proposes adjustments to take into account road, traffic and human factors and extends the use of this indicator on area-wide level. Moreover, this paper uses integrated choice and latent variables (ICLV) models of pedestrian behaviour, taking into account road, traffic and human factors. Finally, a methodology is proposed for the integrated estimation of pedestrian behaviour and exposure on the basis of road, traffic and human factors. The method is tested with data from a field survey in Athens, Greece, which used pedestrian behaviour observations as well as a questionnaire on human factors of pedestrian behaviour. The data were used (i) to develop ICLV models of pedestrian behaviour and (ii) to estimate the behaviour and exposure of pedestrians for different road, traffic and behavioural scenarios. The results suggest that both pedestrian behaviour and exposure are largely defined by a small number of factors: road type, traffic volume and pedestrian risk-taking. The probability for risk-taking behaviour and the related exposure decrease in less demanding road and traffic environments. A synthesis of the results allows to enhance the understanding of the interactions between behaviour and exposure of pedestrians and to identify conditions of increased risk exposure. These conditions include principal urban arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is low but the related exposure is very high) and minor arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is more frequent, and the related exposure is still high). A "paradox" of increased risk-taking behaviour of pedestrians with low exposure is found, suggesting that these pedestrians may partly compensate in moderate traffic conditions due to their increased walking speed.

Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term.

Modeling road safety development can provide important insight into policies for the reduction of traffic fatalities. In order to achieve this goal, both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters, as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed, need to be considered. One of the key relationships in road safety links fatalities with risk and exposure, where exposure reflects the amount of travel, which in turn translates to how much travelers are exposed to risk. In general two economic variables: GDP and unemployment rate are selected to analyse the statistical relationships with some indicators of road accident fatality risk. The objective of this research is to provide an overview of relevant literature on the topic and outline some recent developments in macro-panel data analysis that have resulted in ongoing research that has the potential to improve our ability to forecast traffic fatality trends, especially under turbulent financial situations. For this analysis, time series of the number of fatalities and GDP in 30 European countries for a period of 38 years (1975-2012) are used. This process relies on estimating long-term models (as captured by long term time-series models, which model each country separately). Based on these developments, utilizing state-of-the-art modelling and analysis techniques such as the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (Pesaran), the long-term elasticity mean value equals 0.63, and is significantly different from zero for 10 countries only. When we take away the countries, where the number of fatalities is stationary, the average elasticity takes a higher value of nearly 1. This shows the strong sensitivity of the estimate of the average elasticity over a panel of European countries and underlines the necessity to be aware of the underlying nature of the time series, to get a suitable regression model.