Agreement and predictive value of the Rockwood Clinical Frailty Scale at emergency department triage.

AIM: To determine the agreement and predictive value of emergency department (ED) triage nurse scoring of frailty using the Rockwood Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) when compared with inpatient medical assessment using the same scale. METHODS: Prospective, dual-centre UK-based study over a 1-year period (1 April 2017 to 31 March 2018) of CFS recorded digitally at nursing triage on ED arrival and on hospital admission by a medical doctor. Inclusion criteria were emergency medical admission in those aged ≥65 staying at least one night in hospital with a CFS completed in both ED and at hospital admission. Agreement between ED triage nurse and inpatient hospital physician was assessed using a weighted Kappa statistic and Spearman's correlation coefficient. The ability of the ED to diagnose frailty (defined by a CFS ≥5) was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. At both time points the ability of the CFS to predict inpatient mortality was also assessed. RESULTS: From 29 211 admissions aged ≥65 who stayed at least one night in hospital, 12 385 (42.3%) were referred from the ED. Of the ED referrals, 8568 cases (69.2%) were included with paired CFS performed. Median age was 84 (IQR 77 to 89) with an inpatient mortality of 6%. Median CFS in ED was 4 (3 to 5) and on hospital admission 5 (4 to 6). Agreement between the ED CFS and admission CFS was weak (Kappa 0.21, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.22, rs 0.366). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.68) for the ED CFS ability to predict an admission CFS ≥5. To predict inpatient mortality the ED CFS AUC was 0.56 (0.53 to 0.59) and admission CFS AUC 0.70 (0.68 to 0.73). CONCLUSION: Agreement between ED CFS and inpatient CFS was found to be weak. In addition the ability of ED CFS to predict clinically important outcomes was limited. NPV and PPV for ED CFS cut-off value of ≥5 were found to be low. Further work is required on the feasibility, clinical impact and appropriate tools for screening of frailty in EDs.

Validation of the National Emergency Department Overcrowding Score (NEDOCS) in a UK non-specialist emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency department (ED) crowding has significant adverse consequences, however, there is no widely accepted tool to measure it. This study validated the National Emergency Department Overcrowding score (NEDOCS) (range 0-200 points), which uses routinely collected ED data. METHODS: This prospective single-centre study sampled data during four periods of 2018. The outcome against which NEDOCS performance was assessed was a composite of clinician opinion of crowding (physician and nurse in charge). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and calibration plots were produced. Six-hour stratified sampling was added to adjust for temporal correlation of clinician opinion. Staff inter-rater agreement and NEDOCS association with opinion of risk, safety and staffing levels were collected. RESULTS: From 905 sampled hours, 448 paired observations were obtained, with the ED deemed crowded 18.5% of the time. Inter-rater agreement between staff was moderate (weighted kappa 0.57 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.60)). AUROC for NEDOCS was 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.86). Adjusted for temporal correlation, AUROC was 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88). At a cut-off of 100 points sensitivity was 75.9% (95% CI 65.3% to 84.6%), specificity 72.1% (95% CI 67.1% to 76.6%), positive predictive value 38.2% (95% CI 30.7% to 46.1%) and negative predictive value 92.9% (95% CI 89.3% to 95.6%). NEDOCS underpredicted clinical opinion on Calibration assessment, only partially correcting with intercept updating. For perceived risk of harm, safety and insufficient staffing, NEDOCS AUROCs were 0.71 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.82), 0.71 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.80) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.76), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: NEDOCS demonstrated good discriminatory power for clinical perception of crowding. Prior to implementation, determining individual unit ED cut-off point(s) would be important as published thresholds may not be generalisable. Future studies could explore refinement of existing variables or addition of new variables, including acute physiological data, which may improve performance.

Epidural anesthesia and analgesia decrease the postoperative incidence of insulin resistance in preoperative insulin-resistant subjects only.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) is a feature of the endocrine stress response to surgery. It is not known whether a preoperative state of IR would affect the postoperative endocrine response. We sought to characterize the preoperative state of IR in a group of patients undergoing elective hip and knee arthroplasty, and to determine to what extent perioperative epidural analgesia modifies the postoperative state of IR in those who are and are not insulin-resistant before surgery. METHODS: Sixty patients undergoing either hip or knee arthroplasty were screened by using the homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) in two populations: insulin-resistant patients and noninsulin-resistant patients, whereas HOMA is fasting insulin (microU/mL) x fasting glucose (mmol/L)/22.5. The patients belonging to each population were then randomly assigned to receive either intraoperative epidural blockade followed by postoperative epidural analgesia (epidural group) or general anesthesia followed by patient-controlled analgesia (control group). Analgesia was assessed with visual analog scale up to 48 h after surgery and HOMA was repeated at the end of surgery and 48 h after surgery to determine the postoperative state of IR. RESULTS: Epidural anesthesia and analgesia significantly influenced the postoperative HOMA score (smaller proportion of IR) in the postoperative period only in those patients who were insulin-resistant before surgery (P < 0.01). In contrast, noninsulin-resistant patients had a similar postoperative proportion of IR between the epidural and control groups (P > 0.05). At rest and during movement, visual analog scale scores were not different between groups at the end of surgery and in the first and second days after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Epidural anesthesia and analgesia compared to general anesthesia followed by patient-controlled analgesia decreased the incidence of IR soon after surgery and 48 h after surgery only in patients who were insulin-resistant before surgery.

A novel prognostic index to determine the impact of cardiac conditions and co-morbidities on one-year outcome in patients with heart failure.

Prognostic stratification is relevant in clinical decision making in heart failure (HF). Predictors identified during hospitalization or in clinical trials may be unrepresentative of HF in the community. The aim of this study was to derive and validate, in different clinical settings, a risk stratification model for the prediction of stable HF outcomes. The study included 807 patients, 350 enrolled at discharge from the hospital (44%), 309 in the outpatient clinic (38%), and 148 in the home-care setting (18%). There were 292 patients in the derivation cohort and 515 in the validation cohort. A multivariate logistic analysis was performed to obtain the CardioVascular Medicine Heart Failure (CVM-HF) index. One-year mortality was 20.8% in the derivation cohort and 20.7% in the validation cohort. The CVM-HF index included cardiac conditions and co-morbidities and stratified the 1-year mortality risk as low (death rate 4%), average (32%), high (63%), and very high (96%). The area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.844 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.779 to 0.89) for the derivation cohort and 0.812 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.86) for the validation cohort. Model performance was equally good in the 3 different HF settings. In a subgroup of 409 patients, the CVM-HF index (area under the curve 0.821, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.89) outperformed the most-used prognostic models (the Charlson index and the Heart Failure Risk Scoring System). In conclusion, the CVM-HF index, a novel prognostic model that is easy to derive and applicable to unselected patients, may represent a valuable tool for the prognostication of stable HF outcomes.

Intraoperative infusion of amino acids induces anabolism independent of the type of anesthesia.

BACKGROUND: The infusion of dextrose in patients receiving epidural and light general anesthesia or general anesthesia alone failed to achieve a positive protein balance. We sought to verify the hypothesis that nutritional supplementation with i.v. amino acids induced a greater protein balance in patients receiving epidural blockade compared with those receiving general anesthesia. METHODS: Sixteen patients were randomly assigned to receive either general anesthesia with desflurane (control group) or general anesthesia combined with epidural analgesia (EDA group). A primed constant infusion of stable isotope tracers L-[1-(13)C]leucine and [6,6-(2)H2]glucose was started after a 32-h fast before surgery, (3 h of fasted state), and continued for 3 h during surgery during which amino acids were infused i.v. (fed state). RESULTS: Compared with the fasted state, the endogenous rate of appearance of leucine decreased to a similar extent in both groups, and protein synthesis increased, with no difference between the two groups. Leucine oxidation did not change in either group. After amino acids infusion, endogenous glucose production remained unchanged and glucose clearance decreased in both groups. Blood glucose, plasma cortisol, serum insulin, and glucagon concentrations increased to the same extent in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Epidural anesthesia provided no additional benefit beyond the anabolism obtained with amino acids.

Determinants of postinfarction remodeling affect outcome and left ventricular geometry after surgical treatment of ischemic cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the effects of the time between myocardial infarction and surgery, the site of infarction, mitral involvement on ventricular geometry, and clinical outcome in the treatment of ischemic cardiomyopathy in patients with heart failure. METHODS: Sixty-nine consecutive patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, indexed end-systolic volume > or =50 mL/m(2), ejection fraction < or =35%, and heart failure underwent surgery 81.9 +/- 100.8 months after myocardial infarction, using different techniques of ventricular restoration. Thirteen geometric parameters were studied pre- and postoperatively. Paired and unpaired t tests and general linear model for multivariate analysis were used to analyze subgroups. Logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curves with pairwise log-rank were used to correlate covariates to clinical outcome. RESULTS: Longer time to surgery and posterior necrosis linearly correlated with higher left ventricular volumes (r(2) =.66) and diameters (r(2) =.40). High grade of mitral regurgitation was always present in posterior infarctions. Hospital mortality was 4.3%. Complicated postoperative course was predicted by mitral surgery (P =.004) and longer time to surgery (P =.04). Survival was significantly lower in the posterior infarction (P =.0002) and mitral surgery (P =.001) subgroups. At a mean follow-up of 1.9 +/- 1.3 years, functional status and geometrical restoration are influenced by the studied covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Longer time to surgery after myocardial infarction, its posterior location, and significant mitral regurgitation can affect left ventricular remodeling, surgical restoration, and clinical outcome in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy.

Predicting heart failure outcome from cardiac and comorbid conditions: the 3C-HF score.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic stratification in heart failure (HF) is crucial to guide clinical management and treatment decision-making. Currently available models to predict HF outcome have multiple limitations. We developed a simple risk stratification model, based on routinely available clinical information including comorbidities, the Cardiac and Comorbid Conditions HF (3C-HF) Score, to predict all-cause 1-year mortality in HF patients. METHODS: We recruited in a cohort study 6274 consecutive HF patients at 24 Cardiology and Internal Medicine Units in Europe. 2016 subjects formed the derivation cohort and 4258 the validation cohort. We entered information on cardiac and comorbid candidate prognostic predictors in a multivariable model to predict 1-year outcome. RESULTS: Median age was 69 years, 35.8% were female, 20.6% had a normal ejection fraction, and 65% had at least one comorbidity. During 5861 person-years follow-up, 12.1% of the patients met the study end-point of all-cause death (n=750) or urgent transplantation (n=9). The variables that contributed to outcome prediction, listed in decreasing discriminating ability, were: New York Heart Association class III-IV, left ventricular ejection fraction <20%, no beta-blocker, no renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, severe valve heart disease, atrial fibrillation, diabetes with micro or macroangiopathy, renal dysfunction, anemia, hypertension and older age. The C statistic for 1-year all-cause mortality was 0.87 for the derivation and 0.82 for the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The 3C-HF score, based on easy-to-obtain cardiac and comorbid conditions and applicable to the 1-year time span, represents a simple and valuable tool to improve the prognostic stratification of HF patients in daily practice.

Postoperative infusion of amino acids induces a positive protein balance independently of the type of analgesia used.

BACKGROUND: Net loss of body protein is a prominent feature of the catabolic response to surgical tissue trauma. Epidural analgesia with hypocaloric dextrose has been demonstrated to attenuate leucine oxidation but was unable to make protein balance positive. The current study was set to determine whether an infusion of amino acids on the second day after colon surgery would revert the catabolic state and promote protein synthesis while maintaining glucose homeostasis in patients receiving epidural analgesia as compared with patient-controlled analgesia with morphine (PCA). METHODS: Sixteen patients undergoing colorectal surgery were randomly assigned to receive epidural blockade or PCA as analgesic techniques and underwent a 6-h stable isotope infusion study (3 h fasted, 3 h fed) on the second postoperative day. Whole body glucose kinetics and protein turnover were measured using [6,6-2H2]glucose and l-[1-13C]leucine as tracer. RESULTS: The infusion of amino acids caused a decrease in endogenous glucose rate of appearance in both groups (P < 0.05), with greater changes in the PCA group (P < 0.05). Administration of amino acids suppressed the appearance of leucine from protein breakdown in both groups (P < 0.05), although the decrease was greater in the PCA group (P < 0.05). Leucine oxidation increased in both groups (P < 0.05), with greater change in the epidural group (P < 0.05). Protein synthesis increased to the same extent in both groups (P < 0.05). Protein balance became positive after the infusion of amino acids, and the effect was greater in the PCA group (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Infusion of amino acids decreased the endogenous glucose production and induced a positive protein balance independent of the type of anesthesia provided, although such effects were greater in the PCA group.

Surgical ventricular reverse remodeling in severe ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy: the relevance of the left ventricular equator as a prognostic factor.

OBJECTIVES: Surgical ventricular reverse remodeling has been shown to possibly improve hemodynamics and symptoms, but effects on long-term mortality are not established. No consistent data are available on which patients will benefit most from this procedure. This study was designed to analyze the predictors of long-term survival after surgical ventricular reverse remodeling in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy. METHODS: Eighty-five patients who underwent surgical ventricular reverse remodeling between May 1991 and October 2003 were retrospectively analyzed. Left ventricular wall motion and left ventricular equatorial diameter were assessed by means of angioventriculography. Left ventricular ejection fraction and volumes were measured by means of echocardiography. Cox regression analysis was used in several combinations to create a final model for identifying predictors of death. RESULTS: Actuarial survival after 1, 3, 5, and 10 years was 89%, 79%, 75%, and 75%, respectively. New York Heart Association class improved from 2.9 +/- 1.0 to 1.3 +/- 0.5 (P < .0001), left ventricular ejection fraction increased from 27.6% +/- 6.3% to 43.0% +/- 10.1% (P < .0001), and left ventricular end-systolic volume index decreased from 89.6 +/- 27.6 mL/m2 to 56.5 +/- 34.5 mL/m2 (P < .0001). Multivariate analysis identified left ventricular equatorial diameter of 70 mm or greater (hazard ratio, 5.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-11.71; P = .020) and segmental akinesia (hazard ratio, 4.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-17.12; P = .024) as the only independent predictors of death. CONCLUSIONS: In this analysis of a single cohort of patients, surgical ventricular reverse remodeling improves the symptoms of ischemic cardiomyopathy, as well as left ventricular function, shape, and volume, with encouraging long-term outcomes, particularly in patients with dyskinesia. A left ventricular equatorial diameter of 70 mm or greater appears to be an important independent prognostic factor, which suggests the relevance of the left ventricular equatorial region for effective surgical reverse remodeling.

[Cardiovascular medicine unit: preliminary results of an in-hospital multidisciplinary intervention in heart failure]. / Unità di medicina cardiovascolare: prime esperienze di un approccio intraospedaliero multidisciplinare allo scompenso cardiaco.

BACKGROUND: In Italy the majority of patients with heart failure are admitted to Internal Medicine Divisions, where diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, suggested by guidelines, are less utilized than in Cardiology Divisions. In order to provide a better assistance to patients with heart failure, a Cardiovascular Medicine Unit was founded with interdepartmental valence (Cardiovascular and Internal Medicine) in the "Ospedali Riuniti" Hospital of Bergamo. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the preliminary results, concerning management of heart failure, in the first 6 months of activities carried out at the Cardiovascular Medicine Unit and to compare them with those of other structures that usually manage this disease. METHODS: Analysis of data concerning 150 admissions to the Cardiovascular Medicine Unit for heart failure in 147 patients during the first 6 months of 2003. Comparisons of admittance data for heart failure in the first semester 2001 deriving from the Internal Medicine Division of the "Ospedali Riuniti" Hospital of Bergamo, the TEMISTOCLE study and the Niguarda Ca' Granda Hospital of Milan. RESULTS: A higher prescription of beta-blockers and spironolactone was observed in the Cardiovascular Medicine Unit than in other structures (p < 0.001). Echocardiography and coronary angiography were performed more frequently (p < 0.001) and the number of rehospitalizations was lower for all cases (p < 0.05) as well as for heart failure (p < 0.001). The extensive use of diagnostic procedures and multidisciplinary evaluation of co-morbidities allowed to identify patients who could be managed successfully with surgical therapy; preliminary data suggest a net benefit in terms of NYHA functional class and reduction in rehospitalization in this subgroup of patients. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that the Cardiovascular Medicine model, based on integration of knowledge between cardiologists and internists, is effective with respect to organization and assistance and allows to optimize heart failure patient management.