Risk of second cancers in Waldenström macroglobulinemia.

BACKGROUND: An increased incidence of second cancers has been reported in lymphoproliferative disorders. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We assessed the frequency, characteristics and predictive factors of second cancers in 230 patients with Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM) and compared the incidence of second cancers in WM with that of an age- and sex-matched control population. RESULTS: Twenty-two patients (10%) developed solid cancers and 10 (4%) second hematologic malignancies. In a competing risk model, the cumulative incidence of solid cancers was 12% at 10 years and 17% at 15 years while the incidence of hematologic malignancies was 6% and 8%, respectively. The overall risk of second cancer in WM was 1.69 times higher than expected (P = 0.002). WM patients were at increased risk for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 9.24, P < 0.0001], myelodisplastic syndrome/acute myeloid leukemia (SIR 8.4, P < 0.0001), brain cancer (SIR 8.05, P = 0.0004). The risk of a second hematologic malignancy was fourfold higher in patients previously treated, though not reaching statistical significance (P = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: WM patients are at higher risk of second cancers as compared with the general population. The sample size does not allow firm conclusions about the effect of therapy on the development of second cancers.

Incidence, presenting features and outcome of extramedullary disease in multiple myeloma: a longitudinal study on 1003 consecutive patients.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the incidence and prognosis of extramedullary (EM) multiple myeloma (MM). There are concerns about a possible increase of EM relapses with the expanding use of high-dose therapy (HDT) and biological agents. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The incidence of EM disease, its relationship with prior exposure to HDT or novel agents, and its prognostic impact were analyzed in 1003 MM patients. Based on the different therapies available, three periods were considered: 1971-1993, conventional-dose chemotherapy; 1994-1999, HDT for younger patients; and 2000-2007, introduction of novel agents. RESULTS: Overall, 13% of patients had EM disease, 7% at diagnosis and 6% later. In the 2000-2007 period, there was a significant increase of EM involvement, at diagnosis (P = 0.02) and during follow-up (P = 0.03). The risk of EM spread was not significantly increased after HDT [hazard ratio (HR 0.6)], bortezomib (HR 1.62), or thalidomide/lenalidomide (HR 1.07). EM disease was associated with shorter overall (HR 3.26, P < 0.0001) and progression-free (HR 1.46, P = 0.04) survival. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of EM disease has increased, probably due to the availability of more sensitive imaging techniques and the prolongation of patients' survival. HDT or novel agents seem not to increase the risk of EM disease. EM involvement confers a poor prognosis.

Bone marrow histology in marginal zone B-cell lymphomas: correlation with clinical parameters and flow cytometry in 120 patients.

BACKGROUND: Among marginal zone lymphomas (MZLs), bone marrow (BM) involvement features are well established in the splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL); few data are available for extranodal marginal zone lymphoma (EMZL) and nodal marginal zone lymphoma (NMZL). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Incidence and patterns of histologic BM involvement are studied in 120 MZL patients (48 SMZL, 59 EMZL, 13 NMZL) at onset and during follow-up; relationships between clinical features, BM histology and flow cytometry (FC) are analyzed. RESULTS: At diagnosis, BM involvement occurs in 90% SMZL, 22% EMZL and 54% NMZL (P<0.0001); at reevaluation, incidence raises to 96% in SMZL and 34% in EMZL. Concordance between histology and FC is found in 87% of cases; most discordant cases have positive histology but negative FC. SMZL and EMZL show a nodular BM infiltration; the interstitial pattern is frequent in NMZL (P<0.0001); sinusoidal localization is typical of SMZL, frequent in NMZL and occasional in EMZL (P=0.0001). Stage, leukemic disease, B symptoms, more than one extranodal involved site, splenomegaly, elevated beta2-microglobulin, serum monoclonal component, International Prognostic Index (IPI) and age-adjusted IPI are directly related to BM infiltration. CONCLUSIONS: The different prevalence of BM involvement in MZL subtypes reflects their heterogeneous dissemination modalities; histology seems more sensible than FC to detect BM infiltration; development of BM involvement during follow-up is typical of EMZL.

Immunochemotherapy with in vivo purging and autotransplant induces long clinical and molecular remission in advanced relapsed and refractory follicular lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the clinical outcome of patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy, in vivo purging and high-dose therapy with autotransplant. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-four patients were enrolled in the trial. Primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary end points were the in vivo purging effect on stem-cell harvest and the impact of molecular response on the outcome. RESULTS: At enrollment, 59% of patients were PCR+ for bcl-2 rearrangement in bone marrow (PCR-informative). After the immunochemotherapy, before mobilization, 97% obtained complete response or partial response and 87% of patients informative for bcl-2 were molecularly negative. Sixty-one patients proceeded to in vivo purging and peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) mobilization with rituximab and high-dose AraC. The median number of CD34+ cells collected was 16.6 x 10(6)/kg. Of 33 PCR-informative patients, the harvests resulted in PCR- in all. Fifty-eight patients received high-dose therapy and autotransplant of in vivo purged PBSC. After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients are in complete remission. Five-year PFS is 59%. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that patients with advanced relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy, in vivo purging and autotransplant may obtain long-lasting PFS. In bcl-2-positive patients, in vivo purging allows the harvest of lymphoma-free PBSC. Absence of the bcl-2 rearrangement after autotransplant is associated with persistent clinical remission.

Flow cytometry evaluation of erythroid dysplasia in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

Erythroid dysplasia is the pathologic hallmark of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). To develop a quantitative flow-cytometry approach to its evaluation, we analyzed the expression of CD71, CD105, cytosolic H-ferritin (HF), cytosolic L-ferritin (LF) and mitochondrial ferritin (MtF) in erythroblasts from 104 MDS patients, 69 pathologic control patients and 19 healthy subjects. Six-parameter, 4-color flow cytometry was employed, and data were expressed as mean fluorescence intensity. Compared with pathologic and healthy controls, MDS patients had higher expression of HF (P < 0.001) and CD105 (P < 0.001), and lower expression of CD71 (P < 0.001). MtF was specifically detected in MDS with ringed sideroblasts, and there was a close relationship between its expression and Prussian blue staining (r = 0.89, P < 0.001). In vitro cultures of myelodysplastic hematopoietic progenitors showed that both HF and MtF were expressed at a very early stage of erythroid differentiation, and that MtF expression is specifically related to mitochondrial iron loading. A classification function based on expression levels of HF, CD71 and CD105 allowed us to correctly classify > 95% of MDS patients. This flow-cytometry approach provides an accurate quantitative evaluation of erythroid dysplasia and allows a reliable diagnosis of sideroblastic anemia, and may therefore be a useful tool in the work-up of patients with MDS.

Decision analysis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome stratified according to the revised International Prognostic Scoring System.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) represents the only curative treatment for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), but involves non-negligible morbidity and mortality. Crucial questions in clinical decision-making include the definition of optimal timing of the procedure and the benefit of cytoreduction before transplant in high-risk patients. We carried out a decision analysis on 1728 MDS who received supportive care, transplantation or hypomethylating agents (HMAs). Risk assessment was based on the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). We used a continuous-time multistate Markov model to describe the natural history of disease and evaluate the effect of different treatment policies on survival. Life expectancy increased when transplantation was delayed from the initial stages to intermediate IPSS-R risk (gain-of-life expectancy 5.3, 4.7 and 2.8 years for patients aged ⩽55, 60 and 65 years, respectively), and then decreased for higher risks. Modeling decision analysis on IPSS-R versus original IPSS changed transplantation policy in 29% of patients, resulting in a 2-year gain in life expectancy. In advanced stages, HMAs given before transplant is associated with a 2-year gain-of-life expectancy, especially in older patients. These results provide a preliminary evidence to maximize the effectiveness of allo-SCT in MDS.

Flow cytometry evaluation of erythroid and myeloid dysplasia in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

The purpose of this study was to develop a flow cytometric approach to the evaluation of marrow dysplasia in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We first studied a cohort of 103 MDS patients as well as 46 pathological and healthy controls. Flow cytometry data were expressed as percentage of positive cells. Analysis of erythroid cells showed higher proportions of immature cells (P < 0.001) and decreased levels of CD71 expression on nucleated red cells (P = 0.02) in MDS. Analysis of myeloid cells showed lower proportions of CD10+ and higher proportions of CD56+ granulocytes (P < 0.001), and increased ratios of immature to mature cells (P = 0.007). Since no single immunophenotype could accurately differentiate MDS from other conditions, we used discriminant analysis for generating erythroid and myeloid classification functions using combinations of immunophenotypic parameters. These functions were prospectively validated in a testing cohort of 69 MDS patients and 46 pathological controls. A diagnosis of MDS was obtained in 60/69 cases (87%). No false-positive results were noticed among controls. Significant correlations between values of these functions and both degree of morphological dysplasia and the International Prognostic Scoring System were found. These findings indicate that flow cytometry evaluation of marrow dysplasia is feasible and may be useful in the work-up of individual MDS patients.

Efficacy, toxicity and feasibility of a shorter schedule of DCEP regimen for stem cell mobilization in multiple myeloma.

From 2000 to 2004, 152 patients with multiple myeloma aged or=4 x 10(6) cells/kg. The proportion of patients in whom mobilization failed was similar in the two groups. The incidence of WHO grade III neutropenia was higher in group II, although the difference was not statistically significant; the percentage of patients requiring hospitalization for severe infections was similar in the two groups. The incidence of WHO grade IV thrombocytopenia did not differ between the two groups. The response rate was 72% in group I and 80% in group II with similar percentages of patients achieving good responses. DCEP-short is a good mobilizing regimen, sharing the same characteristics as infusional-DCEP: high mobilizing efficacy, low toxicity and good antitumor activity. This new schedule of DCEP does, however, allow complete outpatient management and so could be advantageously included in any high-dose therapy program.

Minimal morphological criteria for defining bone marrow dysplasia: a basis for clinical implementation of WHO classification of myelodysplastic syndromes.

The World Health Organization classification of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is based on morphological evaluation of marrow dysplasia. We performed a systematic review of cytological and histological data from 1150 patients with peripheral blood cytopenia. We analyzed the frequency and discriminant power of single morphological abnormalities. A score to define minimal morphological criteria associated to the presence of marrow dysplasia was developed. This score showed high sensitivity/specificity (>90%), acceptable reproducibility and was independently validated. The severity of granulocytic and megakaryocytic dysplasia significantly affected survival. A close association was found between ring sideroblasts and SF3B1 mutations, and between severe granulocytic dysplasia and mutation of ASXL1, RUNX1, TP53 and SRSF2 genes. In myeloid neoplasms with fibrosis, multilineage dysplasia, hypolobulated/multinucleated megakaryocytes and increased CD34+ progenitors in the absence of JAK2, MPL and CALR gene mutations were significantly associated with a myelodysplastic phenotype. In myeloid disorders with marrow hypoplasia, granulocytic and/or megakaryocytic dysplasia, increased CD34+ progenitors and chromosomal abnormalities are consistent with a diagnosis of MDS. The proposed morphological score may be useful to evaluate the presence of dysplasia in cases without a clearly objective myelodysplastic phenotype. The integration of cytological and histological parameters improves the identification of MDS cases among myeloid disorders with fibrosis and hypocellularity.

A model of in vivo purging with Rituximab and high-dose AraC in follicular and mantle cell lymphoma.

We studied a model of in vivo purging with Rituximab and high-dose (HD) cytarabine in 14 patients with relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma and two with refractory mantle cell lymphoma enrolled in a program of HD chemotherapy and autotransplant. After two courses of debulking immunochemotherapy with Rituximab, Vincristine and Cyclophosphamide, we used a combination of Rituximab, HD cytarabine and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) mobilization. The median number of CD34+ cells collected was 14.69 x 10(6)/kg (range 5.74-73.2). Monitoring of peripheral CD19+ and CD20+ B cells prior to and throughout the purging period showed that a treatment with Rituximab, Vincristine and Cyclophosphamide results in a profound depletion of B cells in peripheral blood. B-cell depletion persists during mobilization with Rituximab and HD cytarabine allowing a collection of PBSC free of B cells (median CD19+ and CD20+ cells counts 0%). Of nine patients PCR positive for bcl-2 or bcl-1 in blood and marrow at the start of immunochemotherapy, all showed PCR-negative PBSC. In conclusion, in patients with indolent lymphoma, the concurrent administration of Rituximab and HD cytarabine is a safe and efficient method to obtain in vivo purged PBSC. Immunochemotherapy prior to mobilization produces B-cell depletion and seems to be a useful preparative step.

[Bayesian analysis of ecological studies]. / Analisi bayesiana di studi ecologici.

Studying the space-time variation of risk for a given disease may give etiological clues and suggestions for planning further studies to investigate the underlying causes. When the observed events are rare, approaches based on maximum likelihood may lead to unstable and largely uninformative estimates of risk and of its time trend due to Poisson sampling variation. In this paper we propose a general Bayesian model for analyzing the variation of risk in space and time. We applied the Bayesian model to the analysis of the geographical variation of breast cancer mortality, to an ecological study on the correlation between lung cancer mortality and degree of urbanization and industrialization and to the analysis of the space-time variation of cumulative prevalence of Insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus (IDDM) as observed in military examinations between 1954 and 1989.

A prospective study of 338 patients with polycythemia vera: the impact of JAK2 (V617F) allele burden and leukocytosis on fibrotic or leukemic disease transformation and vascular complications.

We studied the relationship between JAK2 (V617F) mutant allele burden and clinical phenotype, disease progression and survival in patients with polycythemia vera (PV). The percentage of granulocyte mutant alleles was evaluated using a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction-based allelic discrimination assay. Of the 338 patients enrolled in this prospective study, 320 (94.7%) carried the JAK2 (V617F) mutation. Direct relationships were found between mutant allele burden and hemoglobin concentration (P=0.001), white blood cell count (P=0.001), spleen size (P=0.001) and age-adjusted bone marrow cellularity (P=0.002), while an inverse relationship was found with platelet count (P<0.001). During the study period, eight patients progressed to post-PV myelofibrosis (MF) (all carrying >50% mutant alleles), while 10 patients developed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The mutant allele burden was significantly related to the risk of developing myelofibrosis (P=0.029) and retained its significant effect also in multivariable analysis (P=0.03). By contrast, the risk of developing AML as well as that of thrombosis was not significantly related to mutant allele burden. Leukocytosis did not affect thrombosis, MF, leukemia or survival. In conclusion, a JAK2 (V617F) allele burden >50% represents a risk factor for progression to MF in PV.

Prevalence of HCV infection in nongastric marginal zone B-cell lymphoma of MALT.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is frequently associated with B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. We investigated the prevalence of HCV infection in nongastric marginal zone lymphomas of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) in order to define the relationship between the viral infection and the presenting features, treatment, and outcome. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 172 patients with a histological diagnosis of marginal zone B-cell lymphoma of MALT, except for stomach, and with available HCV serology, among a series of 208 patients. RESULTS: HCV infection was documented in 60 patients (35%). Most HCV-positive patients (97%) showed a single MALT organ involvement. HCV-positive patients showed a more frequent involvement of skin (35%), salivary glands (25%), and orbit (15%). The majority of stage IV HCV-positive patients (71%) had a single MALT site with bone marrow involvement. The overall response rate was similar in HCV-positive (93%) and HCV-negative patients (87%). Overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) did not differ according to HCV infection. In multivariate analysis, advanced disease (stage III-IV) was associated with a poorer OS (P = 0.0001), irrespective of HCV serostatus. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that nongastric marginal zone lymphomas are characterized by a high prevalence of HCV infection. Patients with involvement of a single MALT site have the highest prevalence of HCV. HCV-positive nongastric lymphomas of MALT show an indolent course similar to HCV-negative patients and seem an ideal target for exploiting the antilymphoma activity of antiviral treatments.

Bayesian analysis of space-time variation in disease risk.

The analysis of variation of risk for a given disease in space and time is a key issue in descriptive epidemiology. When the data are scarce, maximum likelihood estimates of the area-specific risk and of its linear time-trend can be seriously affected by random variation. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model in which both area-specific intercept and trend are modelled as random effects and correlation between them is allowed for. This model is an extension of that originally proposed for disease mapping. It is illustrated by the analysis of the cumulative prevalence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus as observed at the military examination of 18-year-old conscripts born in Sardinia during the period 1936-1971. Data concerning the genetic differentiation of the Sardinian population are used to interpret the results.

Disease mapping with errors in covariates.

We describe Bayesian hierarchical-spatial models for disease mapping with imprecisely observed ecological covariates. We posit smoothing priors for both the disease submodel and the covariate submodel. We apply the models to an analysis of insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus incidence in Sardinia, with malaria prevalence as a covariate.

Statistical issues in the analysis of disease mapping data.

In this paper we discuss a number of issues that are pertinent to the analysis of disease mapping data. As an illustrative example we consider the mapping of larynx cancer across electoral wards in the North West Thames region of the U.K. Bayesian hierarchical models are now frequently employed to carry out such mapping. In a typical situation, a three-stage hierarchical model is specified in which the data are modelled as a function of area-specific relative risks at stage one; the collection of relative risks across the study region are modelled at stage two; and at stage three prior distributions are assigned to parameters of the stage two distribution. Such models allow area-specific disease relative risks to be 'smoothed' towards global and/or local mean levels across the study region. However, these models contain many structural and functional assumptions at different levels of the hierarchy; we aim to discuss some of these assumptions and illustrate their sensitivity. When relative risks are the endpoint of interest, it is common practice to assume that, for each of the age-sex strata of a particular area, there is a common multiplier (the relative risk) acting upon each of the stratum-specific risks in that area; we will examine this proportionality assumption. We also consider the choices of models and priors at stages two and three of the hierarchy, the effect of outlying areas, and an assessment of the level of smoothing that is being carried out. For inference, we concentrate on the description of the spatial variability in relative risks and on the association between the relative risks of larynx cancer and an area-level measure of socio-economic status.

The Sardinian IDDM study: 1. Epidemiology and geographical distribution of IDDM in Sardinia during 1989 to 1994.

Analysis of the geographical variation of risk for a disease is a key issue in descriptive epidemiology and may provide useful suggestions for planning further studies to identify the underlying causes. We adopted a Bayesian approach to investigate the geographical distribution of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) incidence rate across Sardinia. Data on incidence of IDDM in children aged under 15 years (619 IDDM cases) in Sardinia was obtained by the Sardinian Eurodiab ACE register. The overall completeness of ascertainment was: 91.3%. The average yearly standardized incidence rate for the years 1989-1994 was 33.24 per 100000 (95% C.I. 30.60, 35.88), which is the second highest in Europe after Finland. Sex and age-specific risks were higher in males than in females. Considering the variation of IDDM risk according to the age at diagnosis, the risk profile increased up to the 13th year of age for both sexes, being steeper in males. The degree of geographical variation in IDDM risk was small with a slight difference between the highest and the lowest standardized rate across the map. Indeed, even the municipalities at lowest risk in Sardinia showed a risk higher than most European countries. The Sardinian population is genetically atypical, characterized by genetic homogeneity and marked susceptibility to autoimmune diseases. Our finding of a small geographical variation within the island coupled with a marked temporal trend previously observed in data on military conscripts could be interpreted as evidence of a relatively recent environmental aetiological factor that was uniformly distributed across the island and had its effect in a genetically predisposed population.