Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050.

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.

Global economic costs of aquatic invasive alien species.

Much research effort has been invested in understanding ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) across ecosystems and taxonomic groups, but empirical studies about economic effects lack synthesis. Using a comprehensive global database, we determine patterns and trends in economic costs of aquatic IAS by examining: (i) the distribution of these costs across taxa, geographic regions and cost types; (ii) the temporal dynamics of global costs; and (iii) knowledge gaps, especially compared to terrestrial IAS. Based on the costs recorded from the existing literature, the global cost of aquatic IAS conservatively summed to US$345 billion, with the majority attributed to invertebrates (62%), followed by vertebrates (28%), then plants (6%). The largest costs were reported in North America (48%) and Asia (13%), and were principally a result of resource damages (74%); only 6% of recorded costs were from management. The magnitude and number of reported costs were highest in the United States of America and for semi-aquatic taxa. Many countries and known aquatic alien species had no reported costs, especially in Africa and Asia. Accordingly, a network analysis revealed limited connectivity among countries, indicating disparate cost reporting. Aquatic IAS costs have increased in recent decades by several orders of magnitude, reaching at least US$23 billion in 2020. Costs are likely considerably underrepresented compared to terrestrial IAS; only 5% of reported costs were from aquatic species, despite 26% of known invaders being aquatic. Additionally, only 1% of aquatic invasion costs were from marine species. Costs of aquatic IAS are thus substantial, but likely underreported. Costs have increased over time and are expected to continue rising with future invasions. We urge increased and improved cost reporting by managers, practitioners and researchers to reduce knowledge gaps. Few costs are proactive investments; increased management spending is urgently needed to prevent and limit current and future aquatic IAS damages.

Above- and belowground carbon stocks are decoupled in secondary tropical forests and are positively related to forest age and soil nutrients respectively.

Reducing atmospheric CO2 is an international priority. One way to assist stabilising and reducing CO2 is to promote secondary tropical forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land. However, relationships between above- and belowground carbon stocks with secondary forest age and specific soil nutrients remain unclear. Current global estimates for CO2 uptake and sequestration in secondary tropical forests focus on aboveground biomass and are parameterised using relatively coarse metrics of soil fertility. Here, we estimate total carbon stocks across a chronosequence of regenerating secondary forest stands (40-120 years old) in Panama, and assess the relationships between both above- and belowground carbon stocks with stand age and specific soil nutrients. We estimated carbon stocks in aboveground biomass, necromass, root biomass, and soil. We found that the two largest carbon pools - aboveground biomass and soil - have distinct relationships with stand age and soil fertility. Aboveground biomass contained ~61-97 Mg C ha-1 (24-39% total carbon stocks) and significantly increased with stand age, but showed no relationship with soil nutrients. Soil carbon stocks contained ~128-206 Mg C ha-1 (52-70% total stocks) and were unrelated to stand age, but were positively related to soil nitrogen. Root biomass carbon stocks tracked patterns exhibited by aboveground biomass. Necromass carbon stocks did not increase with stand age, but stocks were held in larger pieces of deadwood in older stands. Comparing our estimates to published data from younger and older secondary forests in the surrounding landscape, we show that soil carbon recovers within 40 years of forest regeneration, but aboveground biomass carbon stocks continue to increase past 100 years. Above- and belowground carbon stocks appear to be decoupled in secondary tropical forests. Paired measures of above- and belowground carbon stocks are necessary to reduce uncertainty in large-scale models of atmospheric CO2 uptake and storage by secondary forests.