RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The prognosis of patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (LR-MDS) is very heterogeneous. In addition to survival estimates, identification of factors related to the probability of leukemic progression might help prognosis assessment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The present study is a retrospective analysis of 409 patients with primary LR-MDS. The probability of leukemic progression was estimated in the competing risk framework by the cumulative incidence method considering death without acute myeloid leukemia (AML) as a competing event. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients (16.1%) progressed to AML. The following covariates influenced the probability of leukemic progression in a multivariate competing risk regression model: intermediate karyotype versus diploid or chromosome 5 deletion, 5% to 9% bone marrow blast percentage, platelet count <50 × 10e9/L and age younger than 75 years. CONCLUSION: According to these, a predictive model is proposed, which categorizes patients with different probability of leukemic progression (P < .001). Validation of these results might help prognostic refinement of patients with LR-MDS.