High dispersal ability versus migratory traditions: Fine-scale population structure and post-glacial colonisation in bar-tailed godwits.

In migratory animals, high mobility may reduce population structure through increased dispersal and enable adaptive responses to environmental change, whereas rigid migratory routines predict low dispersal, increased structure, and limited flexibility to respond to change. We explore the global population structure and phylogeographic history of the bar-tailed godwit, Limosa lapponica, a migratory shorebird known for making the longest non-stop flights of any landbird. Using nextRAD sequencing of 14,318 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and scenario-testing in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we infer that bar-tailed godwits existed in two main lineages at the last glacial maximum, when much of their present-day breeding range persisted in a vast, unglaciated Siberian-Beringian refugium, followed by admixture of these lineages in the eastern Palearctic. Subsequently, population structure developed at both longitudinal extremes: in the east, a genetic cline exists across latitude in the Alaska breeding range of subspecies L. l. baueri; in the west, one lineage diversified into three extant subspecies L. l. lapponica, taymyrensis, and yamalensis, the former two of which migrate through previously glaciated western Europe. In the global range of this long-distance migrant, we found evidence of both (1) fidelity to rigid behavioural routines promoting fine-scale geographic population structure (in the east) and (2) flexibility to colonise recently available migratory flyways and non-breeding areas (in the west). Our results suggest that cultural traditions in highly mobile vertebrates can override the expected effects of high dispersal ability on population structure, and provide insights for the evolution and flexibility of some of the world's longest migrations.

Global temperature homogenization can obliterate temporal isolation in migratory animals with potential loss of population structure.

Climate change is expected to increase the spatial autocorrelation of temperature, resulting in greater synchronization of climate variables worldwide. Possibly such 'homogenization of the world' leads to elevated risks of extinction and loss of biodiversity. In this study, we develop an empirical example on how increasing synchrony of global temperatures can affect population structure in migratory animals. We studied two subspecies of bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica breeding in tundra regions in Siberia: yamalensis in the west and taymyrensis further east and north. These subspecies share pre- and post-breeding stopover areas, thus being partially sympatric, but exhibiting temporal segregation. The latter is believed to facilitate reproductive isolation. Using satellite tracking data, we show that migration timing of both subspecies is correlated with the date of snowmelt in their respective breeding sites (later at the taymyrensis breeding range). Snow-cover satellite images demonstrate that the breeding ranges are on different climate trajectories and become more synchronized over time: between 1997 and 2020, the date of snowmelt advanced on average by 0.5 days/year in the taymyrensis breeding range, while it remained stable in the yamalensis breeding range. Previous findings showed how taymyrensis responded to earlier snowmelt by advancing arrival and clutch initiation. In the predicted absence of such advancements in yamalensis, we expect that the two populations will be synchronized by 2036-2040. Since bar-tailed godwits are social migrants, this raises the possibility of population exchange and prompts the question whether the two subspecies can maintain their geographic and morphological differences and population-specific migratory routines. The proposed scenario may apply to a wide range of (social) migrants as temporal segregation is crucial for promoting and maintaining reproductive isolation in many (partially sympatric) migratory populations. Homogenization of previously isolated populations could be an important consequence of increasing synchronized environments and hence climate change.

Arriving late and lean at a stopover site is selected against in a declining migratory bird population.

Loss and/or deterioration of refuelling habitats have caused population declines in many migratory bird species but whether this results from unequal mortality among individuals varying in migration traits remains to be shown. Based on 13 years of body mass and size data of great knots (Calidris tenuirostris) at a stopover site of the Yellow Sea, combined with resightings of individuals marked at this stopover site along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, we assessed year to year changes in annual apparent survival rates, and how apparent survival differed between migration phenotypes (i.e. migration timing and fuel stores). The measurements occurred over a period of habitat loss and/or deterioration in this flyway. We found that the annual apparent survival rates of great knots rapidly declined from 2006 to 2018, late-arriving individuals with small fuel stores exhibiting the lowest apparent survival rate. There was an advancement in mean arrival date and an increase in the mean fuel load of stopping birds over the study period. Our results suggest that late-arriving individuals with small fuel loads were selected against. Thus, habitat loss and/or deterioration at staging sites may cause changes in the composition of migratory phenotypes at the population-level.

Global flyway evolution in red knots Calidris canutus and genetic evidence for a Nearctic refugium.

Present-day ecology and population structure are the legacies of past climate and habitat perturbations, and this is particularly true for species that are widely distributed at high latitudes. The red knot, Calidris canutus, is an arctic-breeding, long-distance migratory shorebird with six recognized subspecies defined by differences in morphology, migration behavior, and annual cycle phenology, in a global distribution thought to have arisen just since the last glacial maximum (LGM). We used nextRAD sequencing of 10,881 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to assess the neutral genetic structure and phylogeographic history of 172 red knots representing all known global breeding populations. Using population genetics approaches, including model-based scenario-testing in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, we infer that red knots derive from two main lineages that diverged ca. 34,000 years ago, and thus most probably persisted at the LGM in both Palearctic and Nearctic refugia, followed by at least two instances of secondary contact and admixture. Within two Beringian subspecies (C. c. roselaari and rogersi), we detected previously unknown genetic structure among sub-populations sharing a migratory flyway, reflecting additional complexity in the phylogeographic history of the region. Conversely, we found very weak genetic differentiation between two Nearctic populations (rufa and islandica) with clearly divergent migratory phenotypes and little or no apparent contact throughout the annual cycle. Together, these results suggest that relative gene flow among migratory populations reflects a complex interplay of historical, geographical, and ecological factors.

Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits in Asia.

Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog-breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe-breeding L. l. melanuroides. Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides, respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little-known Black-tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate-proof conservation strategies.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures.

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Seasonal variation in rest-activity patterns in barnacle geese: are measurements of activity a good indicator of sleep-wake patterns?

Sleep is a widely spread phenomenon in the animal kingdom and is thought to serve important functions. Yet, the function of sleep remains an enigma. Studies in non-model animal species in their natural habitat might provide more insight into the evolution and function of sleep. However, polysomnography in the wild may not always be an option or first choice and some studies may need to rely on rest-activity recordings as a proxy for sleep and wakefulness. In the current paper, we analyzed how accelerometry-based activity data correlate with electroencephalogram (EEG)-based sleep-wake patterns in barnacle geese under seminatural conditions across different seasons. In winter, the geese had pronounced daily rhythms in rest and activity, with most activity occurring during the daytime. In summer, activity was more spread out over the 24 h cycle. Hourly activity scores strongly correlated with EEG-determined time awake, but the strength of the correlation varied with phase of the day and season. In winter, the correlations between activity and waking time were weaker for daytime than for night-time. Furthermore, the correlations between activity and waking during daytime were weaker in winter than in summer. During daytime in winter, there were many instances where the birds were awake but not moving. Experimental sleep deprivation had no effect on the strength of the correlation between activity scores and EEG-based wake time. Overall, hourly activity scores also showed significant inverse correlation with the time spent in non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep. However, correlation between activity scores and time spent in REM sleep was weak. In conclusion, accelerometry-based activity scores can serve as a good estimate for time awake or even the specific time spent in NREM sleep. However, activity scores cannot reliably predict REM sleep and sleep architecture.

A comparison of continuous and intermittent EEG recordings in geese: How much data are needed to reliably estimate sleep-wake patterns?

Recent technological advancements allow researchers to measure electrophysiological parameters of animals, such as sleep, in remote locations by using miniature dataloggers. Yet, continuous recording of sleep might be constrained by the memory and battery capacity of the recording devices. These limitations can be alleviated by recording intermittently instead of continuously, distributing the limited recording capacity over a longer period. We assessed how reduced sampling of sleep recordings affected measurement precision of NREM sleep, REM sleep, and Wake. We analysed a dataset on sleep in barnacle geese that we resampled following 12 different recording schemes, with data collected for 1 min per 5 min up to 1 min per 60 min in steps of 5 min. Recording 1 min in 5 min still yielded precise estimates of hourly sleep-wake values (correlations of 0.9) while potentially extending the total recording period by a factor of 5. The correlation strength gradually decreased to 0.5 when recording 1 min per 60 min. For hourly values of Wake and NREM sleep, the correlation strength in winter was higher compared with summer, reflecting more fragmented sleep in summer. Interestingly for hourly values of REM sleep, correlations were unaffected by season. Estimates of total 24 h sleep-wake values were similar for all intermittent recording schedules compared to the continuous recording. These data indicate that there is a large safe range in which researchers can periodically record sleep. Increasing the sample size while maintaining precision can substantially increase the statistical power, and is therefore recommended whenever the total recording time is limited.

Exploration speed in captivity predicts foraging tactics and diet in free-living red knots.

Variation in foraging tactics and diet is usually attributed to differences in morphology, experience and prey availability. Recently, consistent individual differences in behaviour (personality) have been shown to be associated with foraging strategies. Bolder or more exploratory individuals are predicted to have a faster pace-of-life and offset the costs of moving more or in risky areas, with higher energetic gains by encountering profitable foraging opportunities and prey. However, the relationship between personality, foraging and diet is poorly understood. We investigated how exploratory behaviour in red knots Calidris canutus is associated with foraging tactics and diet by combining laboratory experiments, field observations and stable isotope analysis. First, we developed a mobile experimental arena to measure exploration speed in controlled settings. We validated the method by repeated testing of individuals over time and contexts. This setup allowed us to measure exploratory personality at the field site, eliminating the need to bring birds into captivity for long periods of time. After releasing birds within days of their capture, we asked whether exploration speed was associated with differences in foraging tactics and diet in the wild. We found that tactile foraging red knots mainly caught hard-shelled prey that are buried in the sediment, whereas visual foraging knots only captured soft preys located close to or on the surface. We also found that faster explorers showed a higher percentage of visual foraging than slower explorers. By contrast, morphology (bill length and gizzard size) had no significant effect on foraging tactics. Diet analysis based on δ15 N and δ13 C stable isotope values of plasma and red blood cells confirmed our field observations with slower explorers mainly consumed hard-shelled prey while faster explorers consumed more soft than hard-shelled prey. Our results show that foraging tactics and diet are associated with a personality trait, independent of morphological differences. We discuss how consistent behaviour might develop early in life through positive feedbacks between foraging tactics, prey type and foraging efficiency.

Age-dependent timing and routes demonstrate developmental plasticity in a long-distance migratory bird.

Longitudinal tracking studies have revealed consistent differences in the migration patterns of individuals from the same populations. The sources or processes causing this individual variation are largely unresolved. As a result, it is mostly unknown how much, how fast and when animals can adjust their migrations to changing environments. We studied the ontogeny of migration in a long-distance migratory shorebird, the black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa limosa, a species known to exhibit marked individuality in the migratory routines of adults. By observing how and when these individual differences arise, we aimed to elucidate whether individual differences in migratory behaviour are inherited or emerge as a result of developmental plasticity. We simultaneously tracked juvenile and adult godwits from the same breeding area on their south- and northward migrations. To determine how and when individual differences begin to arise, we related juvenile migration routes, timing and mortality rates to hatch date and hatch year. Then, we compared adult and juvenile migration patterns to identify potential age-dependent differences. In juveniles, the timing of their first southward departure was related to hatch date. However, their subsequent migration routes, orientation, destination, migratory duration and likelihood of mortality were unrelated to the year or timing of migration, or their sex. Juveniles left the Netherlands after all tracked adults. They then flew non-stop to West Africa more often and incurred higher mortality rates than adults. Some juveniles also took routes and visited stopover sites far outside the well-documented adult migratory corridor. Such juveniles, however, were not more likely to die. We found that juveniles exhibited different migratory patterns than adults, but no evidence that these behaviours are under natural selection. We thus eliminate the possibility that the individual differences observed among adult godwits are present at hatch or during their first migration. This adds to the mounting evidence that animals possess the developmental plasticity to change their migration later in life in response to environmental conditions as those conditions are experienced.

Red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) manage body mass with dieting and activity.

Mass regulation in birds is well documented. For example, birds can increase body mass in response to lower availability and/or predictability of food and decrease body mass in response to increased predation danger. Birds also demonstrate an ability to maintain body mass across a range of food qualities. Although the adaptive significance of mass regulation has received a great deal of theoretical and empirical attention, the mechanisms by which birds achieve this have not. Several non-exclusive mechanisms could facilitate mass regulation in birds. Birds could regulate body mass by adjusting food intake (dieting), activity, baseline energetic requirements (basal metabolic rate), mitochondrial efficiency or assimilation efficiency. Here, we present the results of two experiments in captive red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) that assess three of these proposed mechanisms: dieting, activity and up- and down-regulation of metabolic rate. In the first experiment, knots were exposed to cues of predation risk that led them to exhibit presumably adaptive mass loss. In the second experiment, knots maintained constant body mass despite being fed alternating high- and low-quality diets. In both experiments, regulation of body mass was achieved through a combination of changes in food intake and activity. Both experiments also provide some evidence for a role of metabolic adjustments. Taken together, these two experiments demonstrate that fine-scale management of body mass in knots is achieved through multiple mechanisms acting simultaneously.

Low fitness at low latitudes: Wintering in the tropics increases migratory delays and mortality rates in an Arctic breeding shorebird.

Evolutionary theories of seasonal migration generally assume that the costs of longer migrations are balanced by benefits at the non-breeding destinations. We tested, and rejected, the null hypothesis of equal survival and timing of spring migration for High Arctic breeding sanderling Calidris alba using six and eight winter destinations between 55°N and 25°S, respectively. Annual apparent survival was considerably lower for adult birds wintering in tropical West Africa (Mauritania: 0.74 and Ghana: 0.75) than in three European sites (0.84, 0.84 and 0.87) and in subtropical Namibia (0.85). Moreover, compared with adults, second calendar-year sanderlings in the tropics, but not in Europe, often refrained from migrating north during the first possible breeding season. During northward migration, tropical-wintering sanderlings occurred at their final staging site in Iceland 5-15 days later than birds wintering further north or south. Namibia-wintering sanderlings tracked with solar geolocators only staged in West Africa during southward migration. The low annual survival, the later age of first northward migration and the later passage through Iceland during northward migration of tropical-wintering sanderlings, in addition to the skipping of this area during northward but not southward migration by Namibia-wintering sanderlings, all suggest they face issues during the late non-breeding season in West Africa. Migrating sanderlings defy long distances but may end up in winter areas with poor fitness prospects. We suggest that ecological conditions in tropical West Africa make the fuelling prior to northward departure problematic.

Ontogenetic niche shifts as a driver of seasonal migration.

Ontogenetic niche shifts have helped to understand population dynamics. Here we show that ontogenetic niche shifts also offer an explanation, complementary to traditional concepts, as to why certain species show seasonal migration. We describe how demographic processes (survival, reproduction and migration) and associated ecological requirements of species may change with ontogenetic stage (juvenile, adult) and across the migratory range (breeding, non-breeding). We apply this concept to widely different species (dark-bellied brent geese (Branta b. bernicla), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and migratory Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) to check the generality of this hypothesis. Consistent with the idea that ontogenetic niche shifts are an important driver of seasonal migration, we find that growth and survival of juvenile life stages profit most from ecological conditions that are specific to breeding areas. We suggest that matrix population modelling techniques are promising to detect the importance of the ontogenetic niche shifts in maintaining migratory strategies. As a proof of concept, we applied a first analysis to resident, partial migratory and fully migratory populations of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis). We argue that recognition of the costs and benefits of migration, and how these vary with life stages, is important to understand and conserve migration under global environmental change.

Adverse wind conditions during northward Sahara crossings increase the in-flight mortality of Black-tailed Godwits.

Long-distance migratory flights are predicted to be associated with higher mortality rates when individuals encounter adverse weather conditions. However, directly connecting environmental conditions experienced in-flight with the survival of migrants has proven difficult. We studied how the in-flight mortality of 53 satellite-tagged Black-tailed Godwits (Limosa limosa limosa) during 132 crossings of the Sahara Desert, a major geographical barrier along their migration route between The Netherlands and sub-Saharan Africa, is correlated with the experienced wind conditions and departure date during both southward and northward migration. We show that godwits experienced higher wind assistance during southward crossings, which seems to reflect local prevailing trade winds. Critically, we found that fatal northward crossings (15 deaths during 61 crossings) were associated with adverse wind conditions. Wind conditions during migration can thus directly influence vital rates. Changing wind conditions associated with global change may thus profoundly influence the costs of long-distance migration in the future.

Within-Individual Canalization Contributes to Age-Related Increases in Trait Repeatability: A Longitudinal Experiment in Red Knots.

Age-related increases in the repeatable expression of labile phenotypic traits are often assumed to arise from an increase in among-individual variance due to differences in developmental plasticity or by means of state-behavior feedbacks. However, age-related increases in repeatability could also arise from a decrease in within-individual variance as a result of stabilizing trait expression, that is, canalization. Here we describe age-related changes in within-individual and among-individual variance components in two correlated traits-gizzard mass and exploration behavior-in a medium-sized shorebird, the red knot (Calidris canutus). Increased repeatability of gizzard mass came about due to an increase in among-individual variance, unrelated to differences in developmental plasticity, together with decreases in within-individual variance consistent with canalization. We also found canalization of exploration but no age-related increase in overall repeatability, which suggests that showing predictable expression of exploration behavior may be advantageous from a very young age onward. Contrasts between juveniles and adults in the first year after their capture provide support for the idea that environmental conditions play a key role in generating among-individual variation in both gizzard mass and exploration behavior. Our study shows that stabilization of traits occurs under constant conditions: with increased exposure to predictable cues, individuals may become more certain in their assessment of the environment allowing traits to become canalized.

Evolutionary design of a flexible, seasonally migratory, avian phenotype: why trade gizzard mass against pectoral muscle mass?

Migratory birds undergo impressive body remodelling over the course of an annual cycle. Prior to long-distance flights, red knots ( Calidris canutus islandica) reduce gizzard mass while increasing body mass and pectoral muscle mass. Although body mass and pectoral muscle mass are functionally linked via their joint effects on flight performance, gizzard and pectoral muscle mass are thought to be independently regulated. Current hypotheses for observed negative within-individual covariation between gizzard and pectoral muscle mass in free-living knots are based on a common factor (e.g. migration) simultaneously affecting both traits, and/or protein limitation forcing allocation decisions. We used diet manipulations to generate within-individual variation in gizzard mass and test for independence between gizzard and pectoral muscle mass within individuals outside the period of migration and under conditions of high protein availability. Contrary to our prediction, we observed a negative within-individual covariation between gizzard and pectoral muscle mass. We discuss this result as a potential outcome of an evolved mechanism underlying body remodelling associated with migration. Although our proposed mechanism requires empirical testing, this study echoes earlier calls for greater integration of studies of function and mechanism, and in particular, the need for more explicit consideration of the evolution of mechanisms underlying phenotypic design.

Micro- and macroparasite species richness in birds: The role of host life history and ecology.

Identifying the factors shaping variation in parasite diversity among host species is crucial to understand wildlife diseases. Although micro- and macroparasites may exert different selective pressures on their hosts, studies investigating the determinants of parasite species richness in animals have rarely considered this divide. Here, we investigated the role of host life history and ecology in explaining the species richness of helminths (macroparasites) and haemosporidians (microparasites) in birds world-wide. We collated data from multiple global datasets on diverse bird traits (longevity, body mass, coloniality, migration distance/tendency, geographic range size and dietary and habitat breadths) and the species richness of their helminth and haemosporidian parasites. We tested predictors of helminth and haemosporidian parasite richness using phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models in a Bayesian framework. We found that, after controlling for research effort and host phylogeny, the richness of helminths, but not of haemosporidians, increased with host longevity, range size, migration distance and dietary breadth. Overall, these correlates were also important across different helminth groups (acanthocephalans, cestodes, nematodes and trematodes), and two additional ones (body mass, coloniality) emerged as important for cestodes and acanthocephalans. We propose that long life spans may promote the diversity of helminth parasite assemblages over evolutionary time, thus resulting in richer helminth faunas. Similarly, longer-distance migrations, larger ranges and broader dietary breadths are likely to lead to greater encounter rates and the accumulation of trophically transmitted helminths. In contrast, vector-borne haemosporidians may be influenced more by factors related to vector ecology than by the host traits included in the analyses. The lack of strong associations between haemosporidian species richness and host characteristics emphasizes the need to find appropriate traits to model the distribution and diversity of parasites with different environmental preferences in order to anticipate disease emergence risks associated with global change.

High-altitude shorebird migration in the absence of topographical barriers: avoiding high air temperatures and searching for profitable winds.

Nearly 20% of all bird species migrate between breeding and nonbreeding sites annually. Their migrations include storied feats of endurance and physiology, from non-stop trans-Pacific crossings to flights at the cruising altitudes of jetliners. Despite intense interest in these performances, there remains great uncertainty about which factors most directly influence bird behaviour during migratory flights. We used GPS trackers that measure an individual's altitude and wingbeat frequency to track the migration of black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa) and identify the abiotic factors influencing their in-flight migratory behaviour. We found that godwits flew at altitudes above 5000 m during 21% of all migratory flights, and reached maximum flight altitudes of nearly 6000 m. The partial pressure of oxygen at these altitudes is less than 50% of that at sea level, yet these extremely high flights occurred in the absence of topographical barriers. Instead, they were associated with high air temperatures at lower altitudes and increasing wind support at higher altitudes. Our results therefore suggest that wind, temperature and topography all play a role in determining migratory behaviour, but that their relative importance is context dependent. Extremely high-altitude flights may thus not be especially rare, but they may only occur in very specific environmental contexts.

Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird.

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.

Generational shift in spring staging site use by a long-distance migratory bird.

In response to environmental change, species have been observed altering their migratory behaviours. Few studies, however, have been able to determine whether these alterations resulted from inherited, plastic or flexible changes. Here, we present a unique observation of a rapid population-level shift in migratory routes-over 300 km from Spain to Portugal-by continental black-tailed godwits Limosa limosa limosa This shift did not result from adult godwits changing staging sites, as adult site use was highly consistent. Rather, the shift resulted from young godwits predominantly using Portugal over Spain. We found no differences in reproductive success or survival among individuals using either staging site, indicating that the shift resulted from developmental plasticity rather than natural selection. Our results therefore suggest that new migratory routes can develop within a generation and that young individuals may be the agents of such rapid changes.