Data-Driven Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Dynamics: A Review.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) threatens animal health and leads to considerable economic losses worldwide. Progress towards minimizing both veterinary and financial impact of the disease will be made with targeted disease control policies. To move towards targeted control, specific targets and detailed control strategies must be defined. One approach for identifying targets is to use mathematical and simulation models quantified with accurate and fine-scale data to design and evaluate alternative control policies. Nevertheless, published models of FMDV vary in modelling techniques and resolution of data incorporated. In order to determine which models and data sources contain enough detail to represent realistic control policy alternatives, we performed a systematic literature review of all FMDV dynamical models that use host data, disease data or both data types. For the purpose of evaluating modelling methodology, we classified models by control strategy represented, resolution of models and data, and location modelled. We found that modelling methodology has been well developed to the point where multiple methods are available to represent detailed and contact-specific transmission and targeted control. However, detailed host and disease data needed to quantify these models are only available from a few outbreaks. To address existing challenges in data collection, novel data sources should be considered and integrated into models of FMDV transmission and control. We suggest modelling multiple endemic areas to advance local control and global control and better understand FMDV transmission dynamics. With incorporation of additional data, models can assist with both the design of targeted control and identification of transmission drivers across geographic boundaries.

Serotype Diversity of Foot-and-Mouth-Disease Virus in Livestock without History of Vaccination in the Far North Region of Cameroon.

Little information is available about the natural cycle of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the absence of control measures such as vaccination. Cameroon presents a unique opportunity for epidemiological studies because FMD vaccination is not practiced. We carried out a prospective study including serological, antigenic and genetic aspects of FMD virus (FMDV) infections among different livestock production systems in the Far North of Cameroon to gain insight into the natural ecology of the virus. We found serological evidence of FMDV infection in over 75% of the animals sampled with no significant differences of prevalence observed among the sampled groups (i.e. market, sedentary, transboundary trade and mobile). We also found antibodies reactive to five of the seven FMDV serotypes (A, O, SAT1, SAT2 and SAT3) among the animals sampled. Finally, we were able to genetically characterize viruses obtained from clinical and subclinical FMD infections in Cameroon. Serotype O viruses grouped into two topotypes (West and East Africa). SAT2 viruses grouped with viruses from Central and Northern Africa, notably within the sublineage causing the large epidemic in Northern Africa in 2012, suggesting a common origin for these viruses. This research will guide future interventions for the control of FMD such as improved diagnostics, guidance for vaccine formulation and epidemiological understanding in support of the progressive control of FMD in Cameroon.