Open science, reproducibility, and transparency in ecology.

Reproducibility is a key tenet of the scientific process that dictates the reliability and generality of results and methods. The complexities of ecological observations and data present novel challenges in satisfying needs for reproducibility and also transparency. Ecological systems are dynamic and heterogeneous, interacting with numerous factors that sculpt natural history and that investigators cannot completely control. Observations may be highly dependent on spatial and temporal context, making them very difficult to reproduce, but computational reproducibility can still be achieved. Computational reproducibility often refers to the ability to produce equivalent analytical outcomes from the same data set using the same code and software as the original study. When coded workflows are shared, authors and editors provide transparency for readers and allow other researchers to build directly and efficiently on primary work. These qualities may be especially important in ecological applications that have important or controversial implications for science, management, and policy. Expectations for computational reproducibility and transparency are shifting rapidly in the sciences. In this work, we highlight many of the unique challenges for ecology along with practical guidelines for reproducibility and transparency, as ecologists continue to participate in the stewardship of critical environmental information and ensure that research methods demonstrate integrity.

Demand-Driven Model for Global Phosphate Rock Suggests Paths for Phosphorus Sustainability.

Phosphorus is required as a fertilizer for producing food, and there is no substitute. Losses between mine production and diet result in significant environmental harm. We used a demand-driven substance flow model to explore the sensitivity of global phosphorus production to interventions of the food system including: reduction in animal fraction in the diet (AFD); manure use efficiency (MUE); animal food yield (YA); phosphorus use efficiency (PUE); the fraction of food that is wasted (FWF); the fraction of food waste recycled (FRE); and the fraction of human waste recycled (WRE). The model indicated that AFD and YA are the most influential interventions, and they interact with PUE and MUE. Furthermore, there is a minimum in AFD and YA below which it becomes necessary to increase mining. Another result is that reducing food waste is about 80 times more effective than recycling food waste in reducing P demand. Finally, the model was used to explore the global carrying capacity for humans on the basis of P sources other than mining. These sources may satisfy P requirements for as many as 2.5 billion people. If significant improvements were made in all of the considered interventions simultaneously, as many as 14.7 billion people could be sustained.

An Evidence Synthesis of Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) in the Environment: Imbalances among Compounds, Sewage Treatment Techniques, and Ecosystem Types.

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) garner increasing attention globally for both their usefulness as indicators of human waste and their potency as emerging organic toxicants. Three decades of rapid increase in PPCP study combined with an increasing number of PPCPs on the global market have created an opportunity (1) to review trends in diversity of compounds, sewage treatment techniques (STTs), and ecosystems investigated as well as (2) to identify knowledge gaps in the literature. We conducted a quantitative evidence synthesis of 6517 abstracts from primary articles in the environmental PPCP literature by examining relative abundance of specific PPCP classes, STTs, and ecosystem types. Our results demonstrate that non-prescription drugs and antibiotics dominated PPCP abstracts, appearing in 51% and 39% of reviewed abstracts, respectively, in comparison to hormones (18%), prescription drugs (18%), fragrances (0.3%), and antioxidants (0.0%), which can all elicit physiological and ecological responses even at low concentrations. References to centralized STTs (e.g., activated sludge, 37%) were more frequent than decentralized STTs (e.g., septic, 2%), despite decentralized STTs being common and frequently high impact sources of sewage pollution worldwide. Freshwater lotic systems (63%) were more prevalent than freshwater lentic (24%) and terrestrial (20%) systems. This discrepancy is notable because the longer residence times of lentic and terrestrial systems may enable PPCPs to concentrate and thus increase risk of biological consequences. These results highlight distinct opportunities to address knowledge gaps in the environmental PPCP literature, including underrepresented compounds (e.g., fragrances), sewage treatment techniques (e.g., septic systems), and ecosystem types (e.g., lakes).

Managing Diffuse Phosphorus at the Source versus at the Sink.

Judicious phosphorus (P) management is a global grand challenge and critical to achieving and maintaining water quality objectives while maintaining food production. The management of point sources has been successful in lowering P inputs to aquatic environments, but more difficult is reducing P discharges associated with diffuse sources, such as nonpoint runoff from agriculture and urban landscapes, as well as P accumulated in soils and sediments. Strategies for effective diffuse-P management are imperative. Many options are currently available, and the most cost-effective and practical choice depends on the local situation. This critical review describes how the metrics of P quantity in kg ha-1 yr-1 and P form can influence decision-making and implementation of diffuse-P management strategies. Quantifying the total available pool of P, and its form, in a system is necessary to inform effective decision-making. The review draws upon a number of " current practice" case studies that span agriculture, cities, and aquatic sectors. These diverse examples from around the world highlight different diffuse-P management approaches, delivered at the source in the catchment watershed or at the aquatic sink. They underscore workable options for achieving water quality improvement and wider P sustainability. The diffuse-P management options discussed in this critical review are transferable to other jurisdictions at the global scale. We demonstrate that P quantity is typically highest and most concentrated at the source, particularly at farm scale. The most cost-effective and practically implementable diffuse-P management options are, therefore, to reduce P use, conserve P, and mitigate P loss at the source. Sequestering and removing P from aquatic sinks involves increasing cost, but is sometimes the most effective choice. Recovery of diffuse-P, while expensive, offers opportunity for the circular economy.

Ecology under lake ice.

Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer 'growing seasons'. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under-ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors. Plankton were more abundant under ice than expected; mean winter values were 43.2% of summer values for chlorophyll a, 15.8% of summer phytoplankton biovolume and 25.3% of summer zooplankton density. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically higher during winter, and these differences were exaggerated in smaller lakes. Lake size also influenced winter-summer patterns for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with higher winter DOC in smaller lakes. At coarse levels of taxonomic aggregation, phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition showed few systematic differences between seasons, although literature suggests that seasonal differences are frequently lake-specific, species-specific, or occur at the level of functional group. Within the subset of lakes that had longer time series, winter influenced the subsequent summer for some nutrient variables and zooplankton biomass.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoir Water Surfaces: A New Global Synthesis.

Collectively, reservoirs created by dams are thought to be an important source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. So far, efforts to quantify, model, and manage these emissions have been limited by data availability and inconsistencies in methodological approach. Here, we synthesize reservoir CH4, CO2, and N2O emission data with three main objectives: (1) to generate a global estimate of GHG emissions from reservoirs, (2) to identify the best predictors of these emissions, and (3) to consider the effect of methodology on emission estimates. We estimate that GHG emissions from reservoir water surfaces account for 0.8 (0.5-1.2) Pg CO2 equivalents per year, with the majority of this forcing due to CH4. We then discuss the potential for several alternative pathways such as dam degassing and downstream emissions to contribute significantly to overall emissions. Although prior studies have linked reservoir GHG emissions to reservoir age and latitude, we find that factors related to reservoir productivity are better predictors of emission.

Environmental and societal consequences of winter ice loss from lakes.

Climate change is reducing winter ice cover on lakes; yet, the full societal and environmental consequences of this ice loss are poorly understood. The socioeconomic implications of declining ice include diminished access to ice-based cultural activities, safety concerns in traversing ice, changes in fisheries, increases in shoreline erosion, and declines in water storage. Longer ice-free seasons allow more time and capacity for water to warm, threatening water quality and biodiversity. Food webs likely will reorganize, with constrained availability of ice-associated and cold-water niches, and ice loss will affect the nature, magnitude, and timing of greenhouse gas emissions. Examining these rapidly emerging changes will generate more-complete models of lake dynamics, and transdisciplinary collaborations will facilitate translation to effective management and sustainability.