Innovations in pharmacovigilance studies of medicines in older people.

Pharmacovigilance is defined by the World Health Organization as "the science and activities relating to the detection, assessment, understanding and prevention of adverse effects or any other medicine/vaccine related problem". Pharmacovigilance studies are critical for detecting and assessing adverse events of medicines that may not have been observed in clinical trials. This activity is especially important in older people who are often excluded from clinical trials as they have multiple chronic conditions and use multiple medicines for longer durations than the clinical trials. In this narrative review we describe innovative methods in pharmacovigilance studies of medicines in older people that leverage the increasing availability of digital health technologies, electronic health records and real-world health data to identify and quantify medication related harms in older people.

The weighted cumulative exposure method and its application to pharmacoepidemiology: A narrative review.

PURPOSE: The weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) method has been used in a number of fields including pharmacoepidemiology where it can account for intensity, duration and timing of exposures on the risk of an outcome. The method uses a data driven approach with flexible cubic B-splines to assign weights to past doses and select an aetiologically appropriate time window. Predictions of risk are possible for common exposure patterns encountered in real-world studies. The purpose of this study was to describe applications of the WCE method to pharmacoepidemiology and assess the strengths and limitations of the method. METHOD: A literature search was undertaken to find studies applying the WCE method to the study of medicines. Articles published in PubMed using the search term 'weighted cumulative exposure' and articles citing Sylvestre et al. (2009) in Google Scholar or Scopus up to March 2023 were subsequently reviewed. Articles were selected based on title and review of abstracts. RESULTS: Seventeen clinical applications using the data-driven WCE method with flexible cubic splines were identified in the review. These included 3 case-control studies and 14 cohort studies, of which 12 were analysed with Cox proportional hazards models and 2 with logistic regression. Thirteen studies used time windows of 1 year or longer. Of 11 studies which compared conventional models with the WCE method, 10 (91%) studies found a better fit with WCE models while one had an equivalent fit. The freely available 'WCE' software package has facilitated the applications of the WCE method with flexible cubic splines. CONCLUSIONS: The WCE method allows additional insights into the effect of cumulative exposure on outcomes, including the timing and intensity (dose) of the exposure on the risk. The flexibility of the method is particularly well suited to studies with long-term exposures that vary over time or where the current risk of an event is affected by how far the exposure is in the past, which is difficult to model with conventional definitions of exposure. Interpretation of the results can be more complex than for conventional models and would be facilitated by a standardised reporting framework.

Medicine utilization studies in Australian individual-level dispensing data: A blinded, multi-center replicated analysis.

PURPOSE: Medicine dispensing data require extensive preparation when used for research and decisions during this process may lead to results that do not replicate between independent studies. We conducted an experiment to examine the impact of these decisions on results of a study measuring discontinuation, intensification, and switching in a cohort of patients initiating metformin. METHODS: Four Australian sites independently developed a HARmonized Protocol template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) protocol and executed their analyses using the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme 10% sample dataset. Each site calculated cohort size and demographics and measured treatment events including discontinuation, switch to another diabetes medicine, and intensification (addition of another diabetes medicine). Time to event and hazard ratios for associations between cohort characteristics and each event were also calculated. Concordance was assessed by measuring deviations from the calculated median of each value across the sites. RESULTS: Good agreement was found across sites for the number of initiators (median: 53 127, range: 51 848-55 273), gender (56.9% female, range: 56.8%-57.1%) and age group. Each site employed different methods for estimating days supply and used different operational definitions for the treatment events. Consequently, poor agreement was found for incidence of discontinuation (median 55%, range: 34%-67%), switching (median 3.5%, range: 1%-7%), intensification (median 8%, range: 5%-12%), time to event estimates and hazard ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in analytical decisions when deriving exposure from dispensing data affect replicability. Detailed analytical protocols, such as HARPER, are critical for transparency of operational definitions and interpretations of key study parameters.

Quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sustained-release (SR) tapentadol was listed on Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in 2014 for chronic severe pain requiring long-term opioid treatment. Dispensings have increased since listing despite declining trends in other PBS-listed opioids. Preferential prescribing of SR opioids may increase the risk of dependence and accidental overdose, particularly when used to treat acute pain. AIMS: To explore the quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia. METHODS: We examined annual initiation rates and patterns of use of tapentadol (SR) in the dispensing records of a 10% random sample of PBS-eligible Australians (2014-2021). We used national tapentadol sales data to assess the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS. RESULTS: Tapentadol initiation increased from 2014, peaking at 7.5/1000 adult population in 2019 before declining to 5.3/1000 in 2021. We identified 63 766 new users between 2014 and 2020, of whom 92.8% discontinued in the first year following initiation, 58.0% had only a single dispensing and 34.3% had no other opioids dispensed in the 3 months before or after initiation. 27.8% of new users were dispensed tapentadol on the same day as potentially interacting medicines. There was a sustained drop in the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS from June 2020 onwards, from an average of 69.1%, to 63.9% of pack sales. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of use suggest tapentadol (SR) is generally used for short duration. Although most tapentadol sold in Australia is subsidised, there is evidence of a shift towards private sales.

Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with targeted synthetic and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: A multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare the cardiovascular safety of interleukin-6 inhibitors (IL-6i) and Janus Kinase inhibitors (JAKi) to tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based electronic databases from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea. We identified newly diagnosed patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who received b/tsDMARDs first time. We followed patients from b/tsDMARD initiation to the earliest outcome (acute coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, venous thromboembolism and systemic embolism) or censoring events (death, transformation of b/tsDMARDs on different targets, discontinuation and study end). Using TNFi as reference, we applied generalized linear regression for the incidence rate ratio estimation adjusted by age, sex, disease duration and comorbidities. Random effects meta-analysis was used for pooled analysis. RESULTS: We identified 8689 participants for this study. Median (interquartile range) follow-up years were 1.45 (2.77) in Hong Kong, 1.72 (2.39) in Taiwan and 1.45 (2.46) in Korea. Compared to TNFi, the adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of IL-6i in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea are 0.99 (0.25, 3.95), 1.06 (0.57, 1.98) and 1.05 (0.59, 1.86) and corresponding aIRR of JAKi are 1.50 (0.42, 5.41), 0.60 (0.26, 1.41), and 0.81 (0.38, 1.74), respectively. Pooled aIRRs showed no significant risk of cardiovascular events (CVEs) associated with IL-6i (1.05 [0.70, 1.57]) nor JAKi (0.80 [0.48, 1.35]) compared to TNFi. CONCLUSION: There was no difference in the risk of CVE among RA patients initiated with IL-6i, or JAKi compared to TNFi. The finding is consistent in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea.

Identifying diabetogenic drugs using real world health care databases: A Danish and Australian symmetry analysis.

AIMS: Drug-induced diabetes is underreported in conventional drug safety monitoring and may contribute to the increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes. Therefore, we used routinely collected prescription data to screen all commonly used drugs for diabetogenic effects. METHODS: Leveraging the Danish nationwide health registries, we used a case-only symmetry analysis design to evaluate all possible associations between drug initiation and subsequent diabetes. The study was conducted among individuals aged ≥40 years with a first-ever prescription for any antidiabetic drug 1996-2018 (n = 348 996). Sequence ratios (SRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained for all possible drug class-diabetes combinations. A lower bound of the 95% CI >1.00 was considered a signal. Signals generated in Denmark were replicated using the Services Australia, Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme 10% data extract. RESULTS: Overall, 386 drug classes were investigated, of which 70 generated a signal. In total, 43 were classified as previously known based on the SIDER database or a literature review, for example, glucocorticoids (SR 1.67, 95% CI 1.62-1.72) and ß-blockers (SR 1.20, 95% CI 1.16-1.23). Of 27 new signals, three drug classes yielded a signal in both the Danish and Australian data source: digitalis glycosides (SR 2.15, 95% CI 2.04-2.27, and SR 1.76, 95% CI 1.50-2.08), macrolides (SR 1.20, 95% CI 1.16-1.24, and SR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.16) and inhaled ß2-agonists combined with glucocorticoids (SR 1.35, 95% CI 1.28-1.42, and SR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22). CONCLUSION: We identified 70 drug-diabetes associations, of which 27 were classified as hitherto unknown. Further studies evaluating the hypotheses generated by this work are needed, particularly for the signal for digitalis glycosides.

Application of an Integrative Drug Safety Model for Detection of Adverse Drug Events Associated With Inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease is characterised by declining lung function and a greater oxidative stress burden due to reduced activity of antioxidant enzymes such as Glutathione Peroxidase 1. OBJECTIVES: The extent to which drugs may contribute to this compromised activity is largely unknown. An integrative drug safety model explores inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 by drugs and their association with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease adverse drug events. METHODS: In silico molecular modelling approaches were utilised to predict the interactions that drugs have within the active site of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 in both human and bovine models. Similarities of chemical features between approved drugs and the known inhibitor tiopronin were also investigated. Subsequently the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event System was searched to uncover adverse drug event signals associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. RESULTS: Statistical and molecular modelling analyses confirmed that the use of several registered drugs, including acetylsalicylic acid and atenolol may be associated with inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSION: The integration of molecular modelling and pharmacoepidemological data has the potential to advance drug safety science. Ongoing review of medication use and further pharmacoepidemiological and biological analyses are warranted to ensure appropriate use is recommended.

Antibiotic utilisation in primary and revision total hip replacement patients: A registry linkage cohort study of 106 253 patients using the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry.

PURPOSE: Infection is a major complication following joint replacement (JR) surgery. However, little data exist regarding antibiotic utilisation following primary JR and how use changes with subsequent revision surgery. This study aimed to examine variation in antibiotic utilisation rates before and after hip replacement surgery in those revised for infection, revised for other reasons and those without revision. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis used linked data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry and Australian Government Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Patients were included if undergoing total hip replacement (THR) for osteoarthritis in private hospitals between 2002 and 2017. Three groups were examined: primary THR with no subsequent revision (n = 102 577), primary THR with a subsequent revision for reasons other than periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) (n = 3156) and primary THR with a subsequent revision for PJI (n = 520). Monthly antibiotic utilisation rates and prevalence rate ratios (PRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated in the 2 years pre- and post-THR. RESULTS: Prior to primary THR antibiotic utilisation was 9%-10%. After primary THR, antibiotic utilisation rates were higher among patients revised for PJI (PRR 1.69, 95% CI 1.60-1.79) compared to non-revised patients, while the utilisation rate was lower in patients revised for reasons other than infection (PRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.98). For those revised for infection, antibiotic utilisation post-revision surgery was two times higher than those revised for other reasons (PRR 2.16, 95% CI 2.08-2.23). Utilisation of injectable antibiotics including, vancomycin, flucloxacillin and cephazolin was higher in those revised for PJI patients 0-2 weeks following surgery but not in those revised for other reasons compared to the non-revised group. CONCLUSIONS: Ongoing antibiotic utilisation after primary surgery may be an early signal of problems with the THR and should be a prompt for primary care physicians to refer patients to specialists for further appropriate investigations and management.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of hypothesis evaluating real-world evidence studies on treatment effects: A good practices report of a joint ISPE/ISPOR task force.

PROBLEM: Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias. WHAT WE DID: The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The overarching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility. STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE: Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years. CONCLUSION: The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

The association between exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and timing of paracetamol use: a cohort study in elderly Australians.

BACKGROUND: In elderly populations, paracetamol may be used regularly for conditions such as osteoarthritis. Paracetamol has been associated with respiratory disease through a proposed mechanism of glutathione depletion and oxidative stress. Given that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is frequently co-morbid with osteoarthritis, this study investigated whether the dose and timing of paracetamol exposure may induce COPD exacerbations. METHODS: The study population was 3523 Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs full entitlement holders who had existing COPD on 1 January 2011, who were dispensed at least one prescription of paracetamol between 1 January 2011 and 30 September 2015, and had no paracetamol dispensed in the 6 months prior to 1 January 2011. The outcome was time to first hospitalisation for COPD exacerbation after initiation of paracetamol. A weighted cumulative exposure approach was used. RESULTS: The association between paracetamol exposure and COPD exacerbation was protective or harmful depending on the dose, duration, and recency of exposure. Compared to non-use, current use at the maximum dose of 4 g daily for 7 days was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67-0.92) and a higher risk after 30 days (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.06-1.52). Risk declined to baseline after 2 months. For past use, there was a short-term increase in risk on discontinuation depending of dose, duration and time since stopping. CONCLUSIONS: Patients and doctors should be aware of the possible risk of COPD exacerbation with higher dose paracetamol 1 to 6 weeks after initiation or discontinuation, but no increased risk after 2 months.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of Hypothesis Evaluating Real-World Evidence Studies on Treatment Effects: A Good Practices Report of a Joint ISPE/ISPOR Task Force.

OBJECTIVES: Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias. METHODS: The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The over-arching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility. STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE: Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years. CONCLUSION: The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

A comparison of survival models for prediction of eight-year revision risk following total knee and hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the development and use of clinical prediction models, but a lack of evidence-supported guidance on the merits of different modelling approaches. This is especially true for time-to-event outcomes, where limited studies have compared the vast number of modelling approaches available. This study compares prediction accuracy and variable importance measures for four modelling approaches in prediction of time-to-revision surgery following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA). METHODS: The study included 321,945 TKA and 151,113 THA procedures performed between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2017. Accuracy of the Cox model, Weibull parametric model, flexible parametric model, and random survival forest were compared, with patient age, sex, comorbidities, and prosthesis characteristics considered as predictors. Prediction accuracy was assessed using the Index of Prediction Accuracy (IPA), c-index, and smoothed calibration curves. Variable importance rankings from the Cox model and random survival forest were also compared. RESULTS: Overall, the Cox and flexible parametric survival models performed best for prediction of both TKA (integrated IPA 0.056 (95% CI [0.054, 0.057]) compared to 0.054 (95% CI [0.053, 0.056]) for the Weibull parametric model), and THA revision. (0.029 95% CI [0.027, 0.030] compared to 0.027 (95% CI [0.025, 0.028]) for the random survival forest). The c-index showed broadly similar discrimination between all modelling approaches. Models were generally well calibrated, but random survival forest underfitted the predicted risk of TKA revision compared to regression approaches. The most important predictors of revision were similar in the Cox model and random survival forest for TKA (age, opioid use, and patella resurfacing) and THA (femoral cement, depression, and opioid use). CONCLUSION: The Cox and flexible parametric models had superior overall performance, although all approaches performed similarly. Notably, this study showed no benefit of a tuned random survival forest over regression models in this setting.

Seek COVER: using a disease proxy to rapidly develop and validate a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. RESULTS: Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72-0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations. CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

Effect of an ongoing pharmacist service to reduce medicine-induced deterioration and adverse reactions in aged-care facilities (nursing homes): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial (the ReMInDAR trial).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of a pharmacist-led intervention using validated tools to reduce medicine-induced deterioration and adverse reactions. DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicenter, open-label parallel randomised controlled trial involving 39 Australian aged-care facilities. PARTICIPANTS: Residents on ≥4 medicines or ≥1 anticholinergic or sedative medicine. INTERVENTION: Pharmacist-led intervention using validated tools to detect signs and symptoms of medicine-induced deterioration which occurred every 8 weeks over 12 months. COMPARATOR: Usual care (Residential Medication Management Review) provided by accredited pharmacists. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome was change in Frailty Index at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included changes in cognition, 24-hour movement behaviour by accelerometry, grip strength, weight, adverse events and quality of life. RESULTS: 248 persons (median age 87 years) completed the study; 120 in the interventionand, 128 in control arms. In total 575 pharmacist, sessions were undertaken in the intervention arm. There was no statistically significant difference for change in frailty between groups (mean difference: 0.009, 95% CI: -0.028, 0.009, P = 0.320). A significant difference for cognition was observed, with a mean difference of 1.36 point change at 12 months (95% CI: 0.01, 2.72, P = 0.048). Changes in 24-hour movement behaviour, grip strength, adverse events and quality of life were not significantly different between groups. Point estimates favoured the intervention arm at 12 months for frailty, 24-hour movement behaviour and grip strength. CONCLUSIONS: The use of validated tools by pharmacists to detect signs of medicine-induced deterioration is a model of practice that requires further research, with promising results from this trial, particularly with regards to improved cognition.

Implementation and Evaluation of a Digitally Enabled Precision Public Health Intervention to Reduce Inappropriate Gabapentinoid Prescription: Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Digital technologies can enable rapid targeted delivery of audit and feedback interventions at scale. Few studies have evaluated how mode of delivery affects clinical professional behavior change and none have assessed the feasibility of such an initiative at a national scale. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate the effect of audit and feedback by digital versus postal (letter) mode of delivery on primary care physician behavior. METHODS: This study was developed as part of the Veterans' Medicines Advice and Therapeutics Education Services (MATES) program, an intervention funded by the Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs that provides targeted education and patient-specific audit with feedback to Australian general practitioners, as well as educational material to veterans and other health professionals. We performed a cluster randomized controlled trial of a multifaceted intervention to reduce inappropriate gabapentinoid prescription, comparing digital and postal mode of delivery. All veteran patients targeted also received an educational intervention (postal delivery). Efficacy was measured using a linear mixed-effects model as the average number of gabapentinoid prescriptions standardized by defined daily dose (individual level), and number of veterans visiting a psychologist in the 6 and 12 months following the intervention. RESULTS: The trial involved 2552 general practitioners in Australia and took place in March 2020. Both intervention groups had a significant reduction in total gabapentinoid prescription by the end of the study period (digital: mean reduction of 11.2%, P=.004; postal: mean reduction of 11.2%, P=.001). We found no difference between digital and postal mode of delivery in reduction of gabapentinoid prescriptions at 12 months (digital: -0.058, postal: -0.058, P=.98). Digital delivery increased initiations to psychologists at 12 months (digital: 3.8%, postal: 2.0%, P=.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our digitally delivered professional behavior change intervention was feasible, had comparable effectiveness to the postal intervention with regard to changes in medicine use, and had increased effectiveness with regard to referrals to a psychologist. Given the logistical benefits of digital delivery in nationwide programs, the results encourage exploration of this mode in future interventions.

Metabolic events associated with the use of antipsychotics in children, adolescents and young adults: a multinational sequence symmetry study.

It is known that younger patients treated with antipsychotics are at increased risk of metabolic events; however, it is unknown how this risk varies according to ethnicity, the class of antipsychotic and the specific product used, and by age group. We conducted a multinational sequence symmetry study in Asian populations (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand) and non-Asian populations (Australia and Denmark) to evaluate the metabolic events associated with antipsychotics in both Asian and non-Asian populations, for typical and atypical antipsychotics, and by the subgroups of children and adolescents, and young adults. Patients aged 6-30 years newly initiating oral antipsychotic drugs were included. We defined a composite outcome for metabolic events which included dyslipidemia, hypertension and hyperglycemia. We calculated the sequence ratio (SR) by dividing the number of people for whom a medicine for one of the outcome events was initiated within a 12-month period after antipsychotic initiation by the number before antipsychotic initiation. This study included 346,904 antipsychotic initiators across seven countries. Antipsychotic use was associated with an increased risk of composite metabolic events with a pooled adjusted SR (ASR) of 1.22 (95% CI 1.00-1.50). Pooled ASRs were similar between Asian (ASR, 1.22; 95% CI 0.88-1.70) and non-Asian populations (ASR, 1.22; 95% CI 1.04-1.43). The pooled ASR for typical and atypical antipsychotics was 0.98 (95% CI 0.85-1.12) and 1.24 (95% CI 0.97-1.59), respectively. No difference was observed in the relative effect in children and adolescents compared to young adults. The risk of metabolic events associated with antipsychotics use was similar in magnitude in Asian and non-Asian populations despite the marked difference in drug utilization patterns.

Effect of Aspirin vs Enoxaparin on Symptomatic Venous Thromboembolism in Patients Undergoing Hip or Knee Arthroplasty: The CRISTAL Randomized Trial.

Importance: There remains a lack of randomized trials investigating aspirin monotherapy for symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Objective: To determine whether aspirin was noninferior to enoxaparin in preventing symptomatic VTE after THA or TKA. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cluster-randomized, crossover, registry-nested trial across 31 hospitals in Australia. Clusters were hospitals performing greater than 250 THA or TKA procedures annually. Patients (aged ≥18 years) undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty procedures were enrolled at each hospital. Patients receiving preoperative anticoagulation or who had a medical contraindication to either study drug were excluded. A total of 9711 eligible patients were enrolled (5675 in the aspirin group and 4036 in the enoxaparin group) between April 20, 2019, and December 18, 2020. Final follow-up occurred on August 14, 2021. Interventions: Hospitals were randomized to administer aspirin (100 mg/d) or enoxaparin (40 mg/d) for 35 days after THA and for 14 days after TKA. Crossover occurred after the patient enrollment target had been met for the first group. All 31 hospitals were initially randomized and 16 crossed over prior to trial cessation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was symptomatic VTE within 90 days, including pulmonary embolism and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) (above or below the knee). The noninferiority margin was 1%. Six secondary outcomes are reported, including death and major bleeding within 90 days. Analyses were performed by randomization group. Results: Enrollment was stopped after an interim analysis determined the stopping rule was met, with 9711 patients (median age, 68 years; 56.8% female) of the prespecified 15 562 enrolled (62%). Of these, 9203 (95%) completed the trial. Within 90 days of surgery, symptomatic VTE occurred in 256 patients, including pulmonary embolism (79 cases), above-knee DVT (18 cases), and below-knee DVT (174 cases). The symptomatic VTE rate in the aspirin group was 3.45% and in the enoxaparin group was 1.82% (estimated difference, 1.97%; 95% CI, 0.54%-3.41%). This failed to meet the criterion for noninferiority for aspirin and was significantly superior for enoxaparin (P = .007). Of 6 secondary outcomes, none were significantly better in the enoxaparin group compared with the aspirin group. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis, aspirin compared with enoxaparin resulted in a significantly higher rate of symptomatic VTE within 90 days, defined as below- or above-knee DVT or pulmonary embolism. These findings may be informed by a cost-effectiveness analysis. Trial Registration: ANZCTR Identifier: ACTRN12618001879257.

Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices: Reoperations and the Competing Risk of Death.

BACKGROUND: The use of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED), which includes pacemakers, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD), cardiac resynchronisation therapy pacemakers (CRT-P) and cardiac resynchronisation therapy defibrillators (CRT-D) has increased over the past 20 years, but there is a lack of real world evidence on the longevity of these devices in the older population which is essential to inform health care delivery and support clinical decisions. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs database. The cohort consisted of people who had a CIED procedure between 2005 and 2015. The cumulative risk of generator replacement/reoperations was estimated accounting for the competing risk of death. A total of 16,662 patients were included. In pacemaker recipients with an average age of 85 years, the 5-year risk of reoperation ranged from 2.8% in single chamber, 3.6% in dual chamber to 7.6% in CRT-P recipients, while the 5-year risk of dying with the index pacemaker in situ was 63% in single chamber, 46% in dual chamber and 56% in CRT-P recipients. In defibrillator recipients with an average age of 80 years, the 5-year risk of reoperation ranged from 11% in single chamber, 13% in dual chamber to 24% in CRT-D recipients, while the 5-year risk of dying with the index defibrillator in situ was 46% in single chamber, 40% in dual chamber and 41% in CRT-D recipients. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of older patients the 5-year risk of generator reoperation was low in pacemaker recipients whereas up to one in four CRT-D recipients would have a reoperation within 5 years.

The Use of Active Comparators in Self-Controlled Designs.

For self-controlled studies of medication-related effects, time-varying confounding by indication can occur if the indication varies over time. We describe how active comparators might mitigate such bias, using an empirical example. Approaches to using active comparators are described for case-crossover design, case-time-control design, self-controlled case-series, and sequence symmetry analyses. In the empirical example, we used Danish data from 1996-2018 to study the association between penicillin and venous thromboembolism (VTE), using roxithromycin, a macrolide antibiotic, as comparator. Upper respiratory infection is a transient risk factor for VTE, thus representing time-dependent confounding by indication. Odds ratios for case-crossover analysis were 3.35 (95% confidence interval: 3.23, 3.49) for penicillin and 3.56 (95% confidence interval: 3.30, 3.83) for roxithromycin. We used a Wald-based method or an interaction term to estimate the odds ratio for penicillin with roxithromycin as comparator. These 2 estimates were 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 1.03) and 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.95, 1.13). Results were similar for the case-time-control analysis, but both the self-controlled case-series and sequence symmetry analysis suggested a weak protective effect of penicillin, seemingly explained by VTE affecting future exposure exclusively for penicillin. The strong association of antibiotics with VTE suggests presence of confounding by indication. Such confounding can be mitigated by using an active comparator.

A data visualisation method for assessing exposure misclassification in case-crossover studies: the example of tricyclic antidepressants and the risk of hip fracture in older people.

BACKGROUND: The case-crossover design is suited to medication safety studies but is vulnerable to exposure misclassification. Using the example of tricyclic antidepressants and the risk of hip fracture, we present a data visualisation tool for observing exposure misclassification in case-crossover studies. METHODS: A case-crossover study was conducted using Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs claims data. Beneficiaries aged over 65 years who were hospitalised for hip fracture between 2009 and 2012 were included. The case window was defined as 1-50 days pre fracture. Control window one and control window two were defined as 101-150 and 151-200 days pre fracture, respectively. Patients were stratified by whether exposure status changed when control window two was specified instead of control window one. To visualise potential misclassification, each subject's tricyclic antidepressant dispensings were plotted over the 200 days pre fracture. RESULTS: The study population comprised 8828 patients with a median age of 88 years. Of these subjects, 348 contributed data to the analyses with either control window. The data visualisation suggested that 14% of subjects were potentially misclassified with control window one while 45% were misclassified with control window two. The odds ratio for the association between tricyclic antidepressants and hip fracture was 1.18 (95% confidence interval = 0.91-1.52) using control window one, whereas risk was significantly increased (odds ratio = 1.43, 95% confidence interval = 1.11-1.83) using control window two. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure misclassification was less likely to be present with control window one than with an earlier control window, control window two. When specifying different control windows in a case-crossover study, data visualisation can help to assess the extent to which exposure misclassification may contribute to variable results.