A Geospatial Model to Identify Areas Associated with Late- Stage Breast Cancer: A Spatial Epidemiology Approach.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to show how a geospatial model can be used to identify areas with a higher probability for late-stage breast cancer (BC) diagnoses. METHODS: Our study considered an ecological design. Clinical records at a tertiary care hospital were reviewed in order to obtain the place of residence and stage of the disease, which was classified as early (0-IIA) and late (IIB-IV) and whose diagnoses were made during the 2013-2017 period. Then, they were geolocated to identify the distribution and spatial trend. Subsequently, the pattern of location, i.e. scattered, random and concentrated, was statistically assessed and a geospatial model was elaborated to determine the probability of late diagnoses in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. RESULT: There were 1 954 (N) geolocated BC diagnoses: 58.3% were late. During the five-year period, a southwest-northeast trend was identified, nearly 9.5% of the surface of Jalisco, where 6 out of 10 (n= 751) late- stage diagnoses were concentrated. A concentrated and statistically significant pattern was identified in the southern, central and northern Pacific area of Jalisco, where the geospatial model delimited the places with the highest probability of late clinical stages (p <0.05). CONCLUSION: The geographical differences associated with the late diagnoses of BC suggest it is necessary to adapt and focus the strategies for early detection as an alternative to create a major impact on the population. Reproducible analysis tools were used in other contexts where geolocation data are available to complement public policies and strategies aimed to control BC.

[Behavior and demand patterns for medical consultations for Kidney Disease at the IMSS, 2011-2020]. / Comportamiento y patrones de demanda de consultas por afección renal en el IMSS, 2011-2020.

Background: Mortality from Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) has increased particularly in the Americas, the trend of wich could also be observed in Mexico, mainly due to the magnitude that Diabetes Mellitus and Arterial Hypertension have reached as the main causal factors. Objective: To examine the behavior and patterns associated with the demand for medical consultations for Kidney Disease (KD) in the IMSS during the period 2011-2020. Material and methods: According to the medical consultations for KD, general and adjusted rates were estimated by year and population assigned to first-level medical unit (UMF). Through geographic information systems and spatial statistics, the magnitude, behavior and patterns associated with the estimated indicators were analyzed. Results: From 2011 to 2020, the demand for KD medical consultations increased 45.8%; the behavior was unusually higher only in 1 out of 5 UMF (p < 0.05), up to 550.2 medical consultations per 1000 persons, wich were located mainly in Jalisco, Veracruz and Chiapas. The unusually higher pattern for medical consultations (p < 0.05) was observed in the same areas during each year of study. Conclusions: The demand for medical consultations by KD has increased in IMSS and has been significantly higher in UMF located in the west, east and southeast border of Mexico, which could indicate endemic areas of KD and require the development of epidemiological research to elucidate the causality of the disease.

Introducción: la mortalidad por enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) ha aumentado particularmente en las Américas, tendencia que también podría observarse en México, principalmente por la magnitud que han alcanzado la diabetes mellitus y la hipertensión arterial como principales factores causales. Objetivo: examinar el comportamiento y los patrones asociados a la demanda de consultas otorgadas por afección renal (AR) en el IMSS durante el periodo 2011-2020. Material y métodos: según las consultas otorgadas por AR se estimaron tasas generales y ajustadas por año y población adscrita a las unidades de medicina familiar (UMF). Mediante sistemas de información geográfica y estadística espacial se analizó la magnitud, comportamiento y patrones asociados a los indicadores estimados. Resultados: de 2011 a 2020 la demanda de consultas por AR en las UMF del IMSS aumentó 45.8%; el comportamiento fue atípicamente alto solo en 1 de cada 5 UMF (p < 0.05), hasta 550.2 consultas por mil derechohabientes, localizadas principalmente en Jalisco, Veracruz y Chiapas. El patrón de demanda de consultas atípicamente alto (p < 0.05) se observó en las mismas zonas durante cada año de estudio. Conclusiones: la demanda de consultas otorgadas por AR en el IMSS ha aumentado y ha sido significativamente mayor en UMF localizadas en el occidente, oriente y frontera sureste de México, lo cual podría indicar zonas endémicas de AR y, además, requerir el desarrollo de investigación epidemiológica para dilucidar la causalidad del padecimiento.