Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management. OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. DESIGN: iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597). SETTING: Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. PATIENTS: 1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample. MEASUREMENTS: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater. RESULTS: The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds. LIMITATION: The prediction model will require external validation. CONCLUSION: This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Association Between Autoimmune Diseases and Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : An Analysis From a Population-Based Screening Study.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a precursor of multiple myeloma (MM) and related conditions. In previous registry-based, retrospective studies, autoimmune diseases have been associated with MGUS. However, these studies were not based on a screened population and are therefore prone to ascertainment bias. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether MGUS is associated with autoimmune diseases. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study within iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents MM), a prospective, population-based screening study of MGUS. SETTING: Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. PATIENTS: 75 422 persons screened for MGUS. MEASUREMENTS: Poisson regression for prevalence ratios (PRs) of MGUS among persons with or without an autoimmune disease, adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: A total of 10 818 participants had an autoimmune disorder, of whom 599 had MGUS (61 with a prior clinical diagnosis and 538 diagnosed at study screening or evaluation). A diagnosis of an autoimmune disease was not associated with MGUS (PR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.97 to 1.15]). However, autoimmune disease diagnoses were associated with a prior clinical diagnosis of MGUS (PR, 2.11 [CI, 1.64 to 2.70]). LIMITATION: Registry data were used to gather information on autoimmune diseases, and the homogeneity of the Icelandic population may limit the generalizability of these results. CONCLUSION: The study did not find an association between autoimmune disease and MGUS in a systematically screened population. Previous studies not done in systematically screened populations have likely been subject to ascertainment bias. The findings indicate that recommendations to routinely screen patients with autoimmune disease for MGUS may not be warranted. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: The International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Screening in Multiple Myeloma and Its Precursors: Are We There Yet?

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy that develops over years from the asymptomatic precursors, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, and smoldering multiple myeloma. Recent evidence shows that by initiating treatment at an asymptomatic stage, outcomes in MM can be significantly improved. However, a vast majority of MM patients are diagnosed after the development of symptomatic end-organ damage and cannot reap the benefits of early treatment. The precursors of MM are easily detected by serum protein electrophoresis and free light chain assay of the serum, raising the question of whether population-based screening could detect MM at an asymptomatic stage and significantly expand the availability of early treatment in MM. Screening is a hallmark of care in many malignancies, and there are accepted criteria for when screening is appropriate. CONTENT: Here we review the available relevant evidence for the introduction of screening and discuss whether screening for MM and its precursors fulfills these criteria. We also highlight gaps in our current knowledge, most notably a lack of data on the benefits and harms of screening and the lack of a defined target population. There are ongoing studies that may fill these critical gaps in the literature, but their results are still pending. SUMMARY: Screening could lead to a paradigm shift in the care of patients with MM, but critical scientific questions need to be answered before screening of healthy individuals can be recommended. In short, we should not screen for MM and its precursors-yet.

Prior cancer and risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: a population-based study in Iceland and Sweden.

There is some evidence that a prior cancer is a risk factor for the development of multiple myeloma (MM). If this is true, prior cancer should be associated with a higher prevalence or increased progression rate of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of MM and related disorders. Those with a history of cancer might therefore constitute a target population for MGUS screening. This two-part study is the first study to evaluate a relationship between MGUS and prior cancers. First, we evaluated whether prior cancers were associated with having MGUS at the time of screening in the Iceland Screens Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma (iStopMM) study that includes 75,422 individuals screened for MGUS. Next, we evaluated the association of prior cancer and the progression of MGUS to MM and related disorders in a population-based cohort of 13,790 Swedish individuals with MGUS. A history of prior cancer was associated with a modest increase in the risk of MGUS (odds ratio=1.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.20). This excess risk was limited to prior cancers in the year preceding MGUS screening. A history of prior cancer was associated with progression of MGUS, except for myeloid malignancies which were associated with a lower risk of progression (hazard ratio=0.37; 95% confidence interval: 0.16-0.89; P=0.028). Our findings indicate that a prior cancer is not a significant etiological factor in plasma cell disorders. The findings do not warrant MGUS screening or different management of MGUS in those with a prior cancer.

Disease associations with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance can only be evaluated using screened cohorts: results from the population-based iStopMM study.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is an asymptomatic precursor condition that precedes multiple myeloma and related disorders but has also been associated with other medical conditions. Since systematic screening is not recommended, MGUS is typically diagnosed due to underlying diseases and most cases are not diagnosed. Most previous studies on MGUS disease associations have been based on clinical cohorts, possibly resulting in selection bias. Here we estimate this selection bias by comparing clinically diagnosed and screened individuals with MGUS with regards to demographics, laboratory features, and comorbidities. A total of 75,422 participants in the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents Multiple Myeloma (iStopMM) study were screened for MGUS by serum protein electrophoresis, immunofixation and free light chain assay (clinicaltrials gov. Identifier: NCT03327597). We identified 3,352 individuals with MGUS, whereof 240 had previously been clinically diagnosed (clinical MGUS), and crosslinked our data with large, nationwide registries for information on comorbidities. Those with clinical MGUS were more likely to have at least one comorbidity (odds ratio=2.24; 95% confidence interval: 1.30-4.19), and on average had more comorbidities than the screened MGUS group (3.23 vs. 2.36, mean difference 0.68; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-0.90). They were also more likely to have rheumatological disease, neurological disease, chronic kidney disease, liver disease, heart failure, or endocrine disorders. These findings indicate that individuals with clinical MGUS have more comorbidities than the general MGUS population and that previous studies have been affected by significant selection bias. Our findings highlight the importance of screening data when studying biological and epidemiological implications of MGUS.

Validity of chronic disease diagnoses in Icelandic healthcare registries.

AIMS: To evaluate the validity of recorded chronic disease diagnoses in Icelandic healthcare registries. METHODS: Eight different chronic diseases from multiple sub-specialties of medicine were validated with respect to accuracy, but not to timeliness. For each disease, 30 patients with a recorded diagnosis and 30 patients without the same diagnosis were randomly selected from >80,000 participants in the iStopMM trial, which includes 54% of the Icelandic population born before 1976. Each case was validated by chart review by physicians using predefined criteria. RESULTS: The overall accuracy of the chronic disease diagnoses was 96% (95% CI 94-97%), ranging from 92 to 98% for individual diseases. After weighting for disease prevalence, the accuracy was estimated to be 98.5%. The overall positive predictive value (PPV) of chronic disease diagnosis was 93% (95% CI 89-96%) and the overall negative predictive value (NPV) was 99% (95% CI 96-100%). There were disease-specific differences in validity, most notably multiple sclerosis, where the PPV was 83%. Other disorders had PPVs between 93 and 97%. The NPV of most disorders was 100%, except for hypertension and heart failure, where it was 97 and 93%, respectively. Those who had the registered chronic disease had objective findings of disease in 96% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: When determining the presence of chronic disease, diagnosis data from the Icelandic healthcare registries has a high PPV, NPV and accuracy. Furthermore, most diagnoses can be confirmed by objective findings such as imaging or blood testing. These findings can inform the interpretation of studies using diagnostic data from the Icelandic healthcare registries.

The first wave of COVID-19 and concurrent social restrictions were not associated with a negative impact on mental health and psychiatric well-being.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it have substantially affected the daily lives of most of the world's population. OBJECTIVE: We describe the impact of the first COVID-19 wave and associated social restrictions on the mental health of a large adult population. METHODS: We performed a cohort study nested in a prospective randomized clinical trial, comparing responses during the first COVID-19 wave to previous responses. We calculated the odds ratio (OR) of the population moving up one severity category on validated instruments used to measure stress (PSS-10), anxiety (GAD-7), depression (PHQ-9), and Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Responses were linked to inpatient and outpatient ICD-10 codes from registries. Models were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and pre-existing diagnoses of mental illness. RESULTS: Of 63,848 invited participants, 42,253 (66%) responded. The median age was 60 (inter-quartile range 53-68) and 19,032 (45%) were male. Responses during the first wave of COVID-19 did not suggest increased stress (OR 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.01; p = 0.28) or anxiety (OR 1.01; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.05; p = 0.61), but were associated with decreased depression (OR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93, p < 0.0001) and increased satisfaction with life (OR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16, p < 0.0001). A secondary analysis of repeated measures data showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Social restrictions were sufficient to contain the pandemic but did not negatively impact validated measures of mental illness or psychiatric well-being. However, responses to individual questions showed signs of fear and stress. This may represent a normal, rather than pathological, population response to a stressful situation.

Untangling fracture risk in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is the asymptomatic precursor of multiple myeloma (MM). Lytic bone lesions and fractures are hallmarks of MM and although there are no lytic lesions in MGUS, it has also been associated with fractures. The causes of fractures in MGUS are currently unclear but potential causes include inherent MGUS bone disease, undiagnosed MM, and peripheral neuropathy (PN). We therefore conducted a large population-based study including 8395 individuals with MGUS and 30 851 matched controls from Sweden. METHODS: Data on fractures, PN, and confounders were acquired from high-quality registers in Sweden. RESULTS: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and PN were independently associated with fractures (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.21-1.37; P < .001 and HR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.16-1.55; P < .001). Imminent MGUS progression increased the risk of fractures (odds ratio: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.27-2.16; P < .001). Fractures were not associated with long-term risk of MGUS progression (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.77-1.53; P = .64). DISCUSSION: Based on these findings, we speculate that MGUS leads to fractures through at least 3 independent mechanisms: undetected MGUS progression to MM, MGUS inherent bone disease, and PN through falls. These findings highlight the need for further study of MGUS inherent bone disease and can inform further research into fracture prevention in MGUS.

A nationwide study on inpatient opportunistic infections in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the pre-ibrutinib era.

OBJECTIVE: Opportunistic infections in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have been described in clinical trials, single-center studies, and case reports. We performed a nationwide study to estimate the incidence and impact of inpatient opportunistic infections. METHODS: The incidence rate (IR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR) for Swedish CLL patients diagnosed 1994-2013, and matched controls were calculated, as well as the case-fatality ratio (CFR). RESULTS: Among 8989 CLL patients, a total of 829 opportunistic infections were registered (IR 16.6 per 1000 person-years) compared with 252 opportunistic infections in 34 283 matched controls (IR 0.99). The highest incidence in the CLL cohort was for Pneumocystis pneumonia (200 infections, IR 4.03); Herpes zoster (146 infections, IR 2.94), and Pseudomonas (83 infections, IR 1.66) infections. The highest risk relative to matched controls was observed for Pneumocystis pneumonia (IRR 114, 95% confidence interval 58.7-252). The 60-day CFR for CLL patients with opportunistic infections was 23% (188/821), highest for progressive multifocal encephalopathy (5/7, 71%) and aspergillosis (25/60, 42%). CONCLUSION: We have uniquely depicted the incidence of rare and serious infections in CLL patients and found a relatively high incidence of Pneumocystis pneumonia. Of the most common opportunistic infections, CLL patients with aspergillosis had the poorest prognosis.

Deciphering the genetics and mechanisms of predisposition to multiple myeloma.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable malignancy of plasma cells. Epidemiological studies indicate a substantial heritable component, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, in a genome-wide association study totaling 10,906 cases and 366,221 controls, we identify 35 MM risk loci, 12 of which are novel. Through functional fine-mapping and Mendelian randomization, we uncover two causal mechanisms for inherited MM risk: longer telomeres; and elevated levels of B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) and interleukin-5 receptor alpha (IL5RA) in plasma. The largest increase in BCMA and IL5RA levels is mediated by the risk variant rs34562254-A at TNFRSF13B. While individuals with loss-of-function variants in TNFRSF13B develop B-cell immunodeficiency, rs34562254-A exerts a gain-of-function effect, increasing MM risk through amplified B-cell responses. Our results represent an analysis of genetic MM predisposition, highlighting causal mechanisms contributing to MM development.

Immunophenotypic assessment of clonal plasma cells and B-cells in bone marrow and blood in the diagnostic classification of early stage monoclonal gammopathies: an iSTOPMM study.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is the earliest discernible stage of multiple myeloma (MM) and Waldenström's macroglobulinemia (WM). Early diagnosis of MG may be compromised by the low-level infiltration, undetectable to low-sensitive methodologies. Here, we investigated the prevalence and immunophenotypic profile of clonal (c) plasma cells (PC) and/or cB-lymphocytes in bone marrow (BM) and blood of subjects with a serum M-component from the iSTOPMM program, using high-sensitive next-generation flow cytometry (NGF), and its utility in the diagnostic classification of early-stage MG. We studied 164 paired BM and blood samples from 82 subjects, focusing the analysis on: 55 MGUS, 12 smoldering MM (SMM) and 8 smoldering WM (SWM). cPC were detected in 84% of the BM samples and cB-lymphocytes in 45%, coexisting in 39% of cases. In 29% of patients, the phenotypic features of cPC and/or cB-lymphocytes allowed a more accurate disease classification, including: 19/55 (35%) MGUS, 1/12 (8%) SMM and 2/8 (25%) SWM. Blood samples were informative in 49% of the BM-positive cases. We demonstrated the utility of NGF for a more accurate diagnostic classification of early-stage MG.

Prevalence of smoldering multiple myeloma based on nationwide screening.

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic precursor to multiple myeloma. Here we define the epidemiological characteristics of SMM in the general population in Iceland. The iStopMM study (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03327597 ) is a nationwide screening study for multiple myeloma precursors where all residents in Iceland 40 years or older were invited to participate. SMM was defined as 10-60% bone marrow plasma cells and/or monoclonal (M) protein concentration ≥3 g dl-1, in the absence of myeloma-defining events. Of the 80,759 who gave informed consent to participate, 75,422 (93%) were screened. The prevalence of SMM in the total population was 0.53% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.49-0.57%) in individuals 40 years or older. In men and women, the prevalence of SMM was 0.67% (95% CI = 0.62-0.73%) and 0.39% (95% CI = 0.35-0.43%), respectively; it increased with age in both sexes. For the 193 individuals with SMM, median age was 70 years (range 44-92 years) and 60% were males. The mean M protein concentration of individuals with SMM was 0.62 g dl-1 (range 0.01-3.5 g dl-1) and 73% had 11-20% bone marrow plasma cell infiltration. The high prevalence of SMM has implications for future treatment policies in multiple myeloma as the evidence supporting treatment initiation at the SMM stage is emerging.

Determining hemodilution in diagnostic bone marrow aspirated samples in plasma cell disorders by next-generation flow cytometry: Proposal for a bone marrow quality index.

Hemodilution of bone marrow (BM) aspirates is a limitation of multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) in plasma cell disorders. There is a need for a validated approach for assessing sample quality and the distribution of non-plasma cell BM populations by MFC could provide a solution. We evaluated BM-associated cell populations, assessed by next-generation flow cytometry (NGF) and white blood cell (WBC) count in 351 BM aspirated samples from 219 participants with plasma cell disorders in the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents MM study (iStopMM), as markers of hemodilution by their discriminatory ability between first and (generally more hemodiluted) second pull BM aspirated samples. The most discriminating markers were used to derive a novel BM quality index (BMQI). Nucleated red blood cells and myeloid precursors provided the greatest discriminatory ability between first vs second pull samples (area under the curve (AUC): 0.87 and 0.85, respectively), significantly better than B cell precursors (AUC = 0.64; p < 0.001), mast cells (AUC = 0.65; p < 0.001), and the BM WBC count (AUC = 0.77; p < 0.05). We generated a novel BMQI that is intrinsic to current NGF protocols, for evaluating quality of diagnostic BM samples and suggest the use of a BMQI scoring system for interpreting results and guiding appropriate actions.

Defining new reference intervals for serum free light chains in individuals with chronic kidney disease: Results of the iStopMM study.

Serum free light chain (FLC) concentration is greatly affected by kidney function. Using a large prospective population-based cohort, we aimed to establish a reference interval for FLCs in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A total of 75422 participants of the iStopMM study were screened with serum FLC, serum protein electrophoresis and immunofixation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated from serum creatinine. Central 99% reference intervals were determined, and 95% confidence intervals calculated. Included were 6461 (12%) participants with measured FLCs, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, not receiving renal replacement therapy, and without evidence of monoclonality. Using current reference intervals, 60% and 21% had kappa and lambda FLC values outside the normal range. The FLC ratio was outside standard reference interval (0.26-1.65) in 9% of participants and outside current kidney reference interval (0.37-3.10) in 0.7%. New reference intervals for FLC and FLC ratio were established. New reference intervals for the FLC ratio were 0.46-2.62, 0.48-3.38, and 0.54-3.30 for eGFR 45-59, 30-44, and < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 groups, respectively. The crude prevalence of LC-MGUS in CKD patients was 0.5%. We conclude that current reference intervals for FLC and FLC ratio are inaccurate in CKD patients and propose new eGFR based reference intervals to be implemented.

Iceland screens, treats, or prevents multiple myeloma (iStopMM): a population-based screening study for monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and randomized controlled trial of follow-up strategies.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) precedes multiple myeloma (MM). Population-based screening for MGUS could identify candidates for early treatment in MM. Here we describe the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents Multiple Myeloma study (iStopMM), the first population-based screening study for MGUS including a randomized trial of follow-up strategies. Icelandic residents born before 1976 were offered participation. Blood samples are collected alongside blood sampling in the Icelandic healthcare system. Participants with MGUS are randomized to three study arms. Arm 1 is not contacted, arm 2 follows current guidelines, and arm 3 follows a more intensive strategy. Participants who progress are offered early treatment. Samples are collected longitudinally from arms 2 and 3 for the study biobank. All participants repeatedly answer questionnaires on various exposures and outcomes including quality of life and psychiatric health. National registries on health are cross-linked to all participants. Of the 148,704 individuals in the target population, 80 759 (54.3%) provided informed consent for participation. With a very high participation rate, the data from the iStopMM study will answer important questions on MGUS, including potentials harms and benefits of screening. The study can lead to a paradigm shift in MM therapy towards screening and early therapy.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and COVID-19: a population-based cohort study.

Multiple myeloma (MM) patients have increased risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) when infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of MM has been associated with immune dysfunction which may lead to severe COVID-19. No systematic data have been published on COVID-19 in individuals with MGUS. We conducted a large population-based cohort study evaluating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 among individuals with MGUS. We included 75,422 Icelanders born before 1976, who had been screened for MGUS in the Iceland Screens Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma study (iStopMM). Data on SARS-CoV-2 testing and COVID-19 severity were acquired from the Icelandic COVID-19 Study Group. Using a test-negative study design, we included 32,047 iStopMM participants who had been tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 1754 had MGUS. Among these participants, 1100 participants, tested positive, 65 of whom had MGUS. Severe COVID-19 developed in 230 participants, including 16 with MGUS. MGUS was not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (Odds ratio (OR): 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-1.36; p = 0.72) or severe COVID-19 (OR: 0.99; 95%CI: 0.52-1.91; p = 0.99). These findings indicate that MGUS does not affect the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 or the severity of COVID-19.