Plant invasion risk inside and outside protected areas: Propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors definitively matter.

Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas. The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas. Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on shaping invasive alien plant occurrence across three biogeographic regions (Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean) and realms (terrestrial and aquatic) in Italy. We disentangled the role of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on invasive alien plant distribution and projected invasion risk maps. We compared the risk posed by invasive alien plants inside and outside protected areas. Invasive alien plant distribution varied across biogeographic regions and realms and unevenly threatens protected areas. As an alien's occurrence and risk on a national scale are linked with abiotic factors followed by propagule pressure, their local distribution in protected areas is shaped by propagule pressure and biotic filters. The proposed modelling framework for the assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien plants across spatial scales and under different protection regimes represents an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice in conservation planning helping to identify scale, site, and species-specific priorities of management, monitoring and control actions. Based on solid theory and on free geographic information, it has great potential for application to wider networks of protected areas in the world and to any invasive alien plant, aiding improved management strategies claimed by the environmental legislation and national and global strategies.

The role of environmental and socio-demographic indicators in the analysis of land use changes in a protected area of the Natura 2000 Network: the case study of Lake Trasimeno, Umbria, Central Italy.

This article sets out to analyse how and to what degree land use is linked to the physical characteristics of the territory itself, and the way in which changes in land use are determined by agricultural and socio-demographic dynamics. The study was conducted within the territorial boundaries of five municipalities surrounding Lake Trasimeno and refers to the periods 1977-2000 for land use and 1971-2001 for socio-demography data. The use of environmental, social, economic and agricultural indicators demonstrates how a mix of various indicators are useful for monitoring the changes which took place. It also shows the powerful influence that socio-demographic factors exert upon land use and landscape change.